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PREDICTIONS: 2024 SEC XC Championships
- Mike McKean
- Oct 30, 2024
- 6 min read
Written by Mike McKean, edits & additional commentary via Garrett Zatlin
NOTE: Without entries, The Stride Report needed to make assumptions about which athletes may or may not compete this Friday. If you see a key name missing, it is likely because they have not yet competed this season (i.e. Sydney Thorvaldson). However, it is still very possible that the individual(s) in question could compete at the upcoming conference championship.
A decade ago, the SEC was viewed as a fairly unexciting conference from a distance running and cross country perspective. However, since then, the conference has evolved into a national power, annually housing the most elite aerobic-centric stars that the NCAA has to offer.
This year, you could argue that this is the most top-heavy that the SEC has ever been on the men's side (individually). The women, meanwhile, aren't too far off given that they have two of the three individual national title favorites this fall.
Simply put, this meet is going to be a classic "Clash of the Titans." It will also give us greater clarity on a large handful of questions that we have for certain teams.
Men’s Individual Race (8k):
Dismus Lokira (Alabama)
Patrick Kiprop (Arkansas)
Victor Kiprop (Alabama)
Kirami Yego (Arkansas)
Yaseen Abdalla (Arkansas)
Dennis Kipruto (Alabama)
Hillary Cheruiyot (Alabama)
Ben Shearer (Arkansas)
Isaac Alonzo (Texas)
Toby Gillen (Ole Miss)
Edward Bird (Kentucky)
Timothy Chesondin (Arkansas)
Thobias Cheruiyot (Oklahoma)
Ryan Kinnane (Auburn)
Collins Kiprop Kipngok (Kentucky)
Christopher Middleton-Pearson (Tennessee)
Brian Masai (Arkansas)
Elias Schreml (Arkansas)
Drew Rogers (Missouri)
Ryder James (Missouri)
Analysis: The individual race at the SEC XC Championships will be one of the more tightly contested battles of conference weekend! With numerous front-running superstars in this field, the runner who takes home gold is seemingly a toss-up.
Defending champion Victor Kiprop comes in as one of the favorites, but the Crimson Tide veteran will need to bring his “A” game in order to repeat. Patrick Kiprop is coming off of an incredible 4th place result at Pre-Nationals which solidified himself as a top-10 threat, nationally. His aggressive racing tactics suggest that he won’t shy from a challenge no matter how hot the pace is.
Patrick Kiprop isn’t the only Razorback athlete with a real shot at taking home the win. Both Yaseen Abdalla and Kirami Yego are coming off of brilliant performances at Pre-Nationals. If 7th place and 8th place effort at that meet weren’t impressive enough, both Abdalla and Yego claimed that they’ll be even better come the SEC XC Championships.
While that comment may have been a bit tongue-in-cheek, there’s no doubt that those two men are capable of raising their ceiling.
How about the others from the Crimson Tide contingent? Dennis Kipruto has been incredibly consistent all year and is coming off of a win at the Crimson Classic. For the most part, he has proven to be the low-stick star that Alabama thought he could be.
For Hillary Cheruiyot, we haven’t seen him toe the line since early September, but make no mistakes about it, he’s a reliable veteran who’ll look to improve upon his 3rd place finish at last year’s SEC XC Championships.
Lastly, we arrive at Alabama newcomer Dismus Lokira. In his first and only race of the season at the Loyola Lakefront Invitational, he took home gold while besting teammates Kiprop and Kipruto in the process. Give me the Crimson Tide rookie for the win in what could be an incredibly close race.
Women’s Individual Race (6k):
Doris Lemngole (Alabama)
Hilda Olemomoi (Florida)
Brenda Tuwei (Alabama)
Leah Jeruto (Oklahoma)
Brenda Jepchirchir (Auburn)
Paityn Noe (Arkansas)
Pheline Cheruto (Alabama)
Mia Cochran (Arkansas)
Teresa Cherotich (South Carolina)
Olivia Howell (Texas)
Ashley Jones (Tennesee)
Tia Wilson (Florida)
Loral Winn (Ole Miss)
Eva Jess (Texas)
Bethany Morley (Florida)
Addison Dorenkamp (Alabama)
Franziska Drexler (Alabama)
Lorenga Rangel Bates (LSU)
Michaela Rose (LSU)
Elizabeth Pickett (Texas)
Analysis: With Parker Valby’s exit from the NCAA, the "Queen of the SEC" title is now up for grabs. This year’s race is set to be incredibly top-heavy as teammates-turned-rivals, Doris Lemngole (Alabama) and Hilda Olemomoi (Florida), will go head-to-head for the first time since the latter's departure from Alabama.
On paper, Lemngole is likely the favorite to emerge with gold given her resume from last year. However, she has yet to be truly challenged this fall (in a high-stakes meet) and Olemomoi is likely hungry to avenge her runner-up effort from Pre-Nationals a couple of weeks back.
Behind the favorites, Brenda Tuwei has the ability to take another leap this weekend. Tuwei has been consistently excellent this fall, and our eyes were opened after crossing the line in tandem with Lemngole at the Crimson Classic. And if this race is as fast as we think it could be, then that should theoretically benefit her skillset.
When looking at other underdogs who can shake up our individual predictions, we must give attention to Leah Jeruto and Paityn Noe.
Jeruto has proven that she’s not afraid to go with an aggressive pace. We could very well see her running on the heels of Olemomoi and Lemngole. Meanwhile, Noe has taken a sophomore leap after her outstanding 7th place finish at Pre-Nationals! That momentum could catapult her into taking some serious scalps this weekend.
If you’re looking for a dark horse in this race, look no further than Auburn’s Brenda Jepchirchir. After two comfortable wins on the season for the Tiger low-stick, we’re still wondering what her ceiling could be. And if there was ever a race for us to see the full extent of her fitness, this Friday would be the perfect opportunity.
Men’s Team Race:
Arkansas Razorbacks
Alabama Crimson Tide
Tennessee Volunteers
Missouri Tigers
Texas Longhorns
Analysis: It’s clear that this is a two-team race between Arkansas and Alabama.
If there’s any hope of knocking off the Razorback’s back-to-back SEC title hopes, then it’s likely going to be the Alabama Crimson Tide who pull off the (minor) upset.
It’s tough to determine what exactly Alabama's ceiling is as we’ve yet to see them race at full strength. This race becomes much more interesting if we see Dismus Lokira, Victor Kiprop, Dennis Kipruto and Hillary Cheruiyot all on the start line. However, for the ‘Tide to have a real shot at upsetting Arkansas, they’ll need a huge performance from fifth man, Hudson Hurst.
After an incredibly dominant performance at Pre-Nationals, the defending champion Razorbacks will look to build off of the momentum gained a couple of weeks ago and further prove that they’re podium favorites in the national conversation.
But while they enter the weekend as favorites, there are still question marks surrounding the drop-off to their fifth runner. Even so, their depth is still far superior to that of Alabama's backend contingent.
The Hog’s fifth runner at Pre-Nationals, Timothy Chesondin, earned All-American honors at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships. We expect him to be much closer to that form this weekend. With Alabama’s huge drop-off from their fourth to fifth runner, the odds of Arkansas winning are very favorable.
Women’s Team Race:
Alabama Crimson Tide
Florida Gators
Texas Longhorns
Tennessee Volunteers
Arkansas Razorbacks
Analysis: The SEC XC Championships is likely where we'll learn the most about the Crimson Tide. After cruising through meets with a comfortable margin of victory, they’ll be tested just as much as they were at the Loyola Lakefront Invitational -- maybe even more so.
The main competitors to Alabama will be the Florida Gators. After losing key departures in the offseason, they’ve reloaded in a huge way and have found themselves to be nationally competitive yet again. To pull off a huge upset win, they’ll need the scoring potency that Caroline Wells and Bethany Morley put on display at their season opener at the Gans Creek Classic.
Texas and Tennessee have been two interesting teams to monitor this year. The former has outperformed preseason expectations, but have also had a few moments of inconsistency. The latter, meanwhile, has not matched the incredible momentum that they established last year. Of course, the Tennessee women also peaked beautifully last fall and that could certainly happen again in 2024.
LSU is a team that could either finish 6th on Friday or place as high as 3rd. Despite their middle distance focus, Lorenga Rangel Bates and Michaela Rose have been quietly great on the grass this fall. However, more importantly, the collective scoring efforts of their top-five has been fairly complete. Don't be surprised if they join the fold at this meet.
All that being said, we still like Alabama to get the win. Their three-headed low-stick monster will likely be too much to overcome for Florida. Look for the Crimson Tide women to dominate and further establish themselves as an improved candidate for a podium finish in Madison, Wisconsin.
