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PREDICTIONS: 2024 BIG Sky XC Championships

  • Finn Birnie
  • Oct 31, 2024
  • 4 min read

Predictions & analysis by Finn Birnie, edits & commentary via Garrett Zatlin

For NCAA cross country fans who follow the sport closely enough, the BIG Sky is a conference that you're likely familiar with. It is, after all, home to the long distance powerhouse known as Northern Arizona.


It's true, NAU has certainly put this conference on the map. However, the steady and quiet rise of other BIG Sky teams has shown the nation that this conference is, for the most part, more than just one ultra-dominant squad (especially on the men's side).


Let's break it all down, shall we?

Women’s Individual Race

  1. Elise Stearns (Northern Arizona)

  2. Ali Upshaw (Northern Arizona)

  3. Alex Carlson (Northern Arizona) 

  4. Keira Moore (Northern Arizona)

  5. Nikita Moore (Northern Arizona)

  6. Ava Mitchell (Northern Arizona)

  7. Hayley Burns (Northern Arizona)

  8. Emma Stutzman (Northern Arizona)

  9. Kyla Christopher-Moody (Montana State) 

  10. Lindsey Paulson (Montana State) 

  11. Alexis Kebbe (Northern Arizona)

  12. Anna Fenske (Northern Arizona) 

  13. Grace Gilbreth (Montana State)

  14. Laurie Murphy (Weber State)

  15. Cassidy Walchak-Sloan (Eastern Washington)

  16. Jenni Bissell (Eastern Washington)

  17. Saga Hagelin (Weber State)

  18. Maya Kobylanski (Idaho)

  19. Alex Moore (Montana State)

  20. Chloe Rylance (Northern Colorado)


Analysis: Last year, we saw the Lumberjacks sweep the top-seven spots, and this year feels like it could be a similar story. While we haven’t seen last year’s champion, Elise Stearns, in action this season, we anticipate that she’ll be in good form, given that she has yet to toe the line (and yes, she is in the entries).


Defending her crown won’t be an easy task as fellow Lumberjack Ali Upshaw has been terrific this season and will be filled with confidence after an impressive 19th-place finish at Pre-Nationals.


Elise Stearns competing at the 2023 Virginia Invite // Photo via David Hicks

Of course, this meet likely isn't a major point of emphasis for NAU. This is almost certainly not going to be an all-out affair and it shouldn't dramatically alter our opinions of the Lumerbajcks.


Outside of the Northern Arizona women, keep an eye on the Montana State duo of Kyla Christopher-Moody and Lindsey Paulson.


Christopher-Moody placed 9th at this meet last year and is coming off of a strong 10th-place finish at the Bill Dellinger Invitational. Meanwhile, Paulson’s grass campaign is highlighted by a 15th-place finish at the Roy Griak Invite earlier in the season. Expect that duo to work in tandem as they try to make their mark among a slew of talented Lumberjacks.


Men’s Individual Race

  1. David Mullarkey (Northern Arizona)

  2. Colin Sahlman (Northern Arizona)

  3. Santiago Prosser (Northern Arizona)

  4. Ben Perrin (Montana State) 

  5. Corey Gorgas (Northern Arizona)

  6. Rob McManus (Montana State) 

  7. Justin Keyes (Northern Arizona)

  8. Kang Nyoak (Northern Arizona)

  9. Sam Ells (Montana State) 

  10. Peter Visser (Weber State)

  11. Manny Perez (Northern Arizona)

  12. Ford Washburn (Northern Arizona)

  13. Zack Munson (Northern Arizona)

  14. Aidan Puffer (Northern Arizona)

  15. Levi Taylor (Montana State) 

  16. Ben Saelens (Montana State) 

  17. Wesley Kallgren (Weber State)

  18. Lorenz Herrmann (Idaho)

  19. Sam Fulbright (Idaho)

  20. Seth Babbel (Idaho State)


Analysis: Much like the women’s race, it's highly likely that we’ll see a Northern Arizona champion emerge. Newcomer David Mullarkey has been the focal point for the Lumberjacks this season. And despite not having his best race at Pre-Nationals, he still emerged as the team's top scorer.


Middle distance star Colin Sahlman certainly can't be overlooked. His recent 20th-place finish at Pre-Nationals suggests that he’s rounding into shape just in time for the postseason. The same can be said for veteran Santiago Prosser who, after an early-season DNF, seems to be back to his best.


David Mullarkey (right) competing at Pre-Nationals // Photo via Andrew LeMay

But just like we mentioned with the women, the NAU men will likely be content to do just enough to secure the conference title.


Looking to spoil the NAU party will be Montana State's duo, Ben Perrin and Rob McManus. The Bobcat pair have been stacking up strong results all season and their experience on this stage will be invaluable.


Women’s Team Race

  1. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 

  2. Montana State Bobcats 

  3. Weber State Wildcats 

  4. Eastern Washington Eagles 

  5. Idaho Vandals 


Analysis: To be completely honest, I don’t think there will be many surprises when it comes to winners of the women’s team race. Northern Arizona is a podium favorite for the national meet, so they should have no problem capturing another conference title, even with a few athletes sitting out.


In the race for the remaining podium spots, Montana State is certainly the front-runner for silver. They have quietly put together a strong series of results, highlighted by a 6th place finish at the Roy Griak Invite and another 6th place finish at the Bill Dellinger Invite. At the latter meet, the Bobcats defeat both Weber State and Idaho in head-to-head matchups.


Kyla Christopher-Moody competing for Montana State // Photo via Montana State Athletics

With an in-form Lindsey Paulson racing alongside lead scorer Kyla Christopher-Moody, the Bobcats should be able to comfortably secure runner-up honors.


While the Wildcats' results suggest they should comfortably secure 3rd place, the duel between the Eagles and Vandals promises to be thrilling, as each team has successfully bested the other at different points this season. Will Idaho gain the edge after narrowly coming out on top in their last meeting?


Men’s Team Race

  1. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 

  2. Montana State Bobcats 

  3. Weber State Wildcats 

  4. Eastern Washington Eagles 

  5. Idaho Vandals 


Analysis: Much of what was said about the women’s team race applies to the men’s team as well. Northern Arizona’s combination of elite firepower and depth will be more than enough to secure another BIG Sky title.


However, Montana State will likely make things slightly more competitive on the men's side than they will on the women's side.


The Bobcats' talented duo of Ben Perrin and Rob McManus will aim to disrupt some of the Lumberjacks' scoring lineup. However, that likely won’t be enough to topple a team with podium aspirations in Madison, Wisconsin.


Rob McManus (center) competing at Pre-Nationals // Photo via Andrew LeMay

That being said, Montana State's scoring potency will more than likely overwhelm the likes of Weber State and Eastern Washington. 


The Weber State men will be relying on junior standout Peter Visser if they hope to repeat as bronze medalists. The team should enter the meet confident in their chances, especially after nearly halving Eastern Washington’s points total at the Gans Creek Classic.

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