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PREDICTIONS: 2024 BIG 10 XC Championships
- Finn Birnie
- Oct 30, 2024
- 6 min read
Written by Finn Birnie, edits & additional commentary via Garrett Zatlin
Welcome to a brand new era of BIG 10 distance running!
For many years, teams such as Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State and occasionally Minnesota have headlined this conference. And admittedly, the conference had seemingly become stale in terms of it's competitive disparity in recent years.
Thankfully, the BIG 10 was one of the biggest benefactors from conference realignment as Oregon, Washington, UCLA and USC are the league's newest members. As such, the cross country landscape that was once dominated by midwest teams will now have major challenges from west coast counterparts on an annual basis.
Let's see how The Stride Report is projecting this new-look conference meet to unfold on Friday...
Women’s Individual Race (6k):
Florence Caron (Penn State)
Maddy Elmore (Oregon)
Ali Weimer (Minnesota)
Maeve Stiles (Washington)
Chloe Foerster (Washington)
Silan Ayyildiz (Oregon)
India Weir (Washington)
Leane Willemse (Wisconsin)
Mia Barnett (Oregon)
Lindsay Cunningham (Wisconsin)
Berlyn Schutz (Nebraska)
Amina Maatoug (Washington)
Julia David-Smith (Washington)
Sophie O'Sullivan (Washington)
Wilma Nielsen (Oregon)
Ali Bainbridge (Nebraska)
Anika Thompson (Oregon)
Kaitlyn Hynes (Michigan State)
Shea Ruhly (Wisconsin)
Hayley Kitching (Penn State)
Analysis: We’re in for a thrilling head-to-head battle for the women’s individual title this Friday!
Penn State's Florence Caron is fearless when it comes to setting an aggressive pace, something that helped earn her a 2nd place finish at the Nuttycombe Invite and a 3rd place finish in a highly competitive Princeton Fall Classic. Strictly in terms of this season, she is the most proven runner in this field.
On the other hand, Oregon’s Maddy Elmore has only raced once this fall, comfortably winning the Bill Dellinger Invitational. Of course, her track pedigree is a level above that of most competitors in this field, but will that be enough to take on a fearless Caron?
In theory, Elmore is a complete runner and she is more experienced than her Penn State opponent. Caron, however, appears to be more aerobic-centric than her Oregon counterpart.
We can’t forget about Ali Weimer, one of the bigger breakout names in the NCAA so far this season. The Golden Gopher star enters with perhaps the greatest momentum of anyone in this field relative to preseason expectations. She is, after all, coming off of an impressive 11th place at Pre-Nationals which was easily the best race of her career.
Replicating a performance of that caliber should give her the confidence to contend for the individual title (or, at the very least, stay with the lead pack).
We are also seeing Oregon standouts Silan Ayyildiz (who we haven't seen race this season) and Mia Barnett (who was 18th at the Nuttycombe Invite) listed in the entries for this race. If they do run, then both women are capable of top-10 finishes. However, there is still a ton of uncertainty about what we should expect from Ayyildiz come Friday.
Beyond this trio, expect a strong Washington contingent likely led by Chloe Foerster and Maeve Stiles. Both of those two women have been outstanding this season, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see them pack together.
Other Husky standouts like India Weir have been quietly great. Teammate Julia David-Smith also had a very strong outing at the Nuttycombe Invite earlier this fall. Amina Maatoug doesn't seem to be in top form this fall, but a sudden return to peak fitness could make these results even more interesting.
This Washington unit may not have an individual title contender, but they could absolutely crowd the top-10 portion of these results.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin's lead scorers of Shea Ruhly, Leane Willemse and Lindsay Cunningham will be vying for top-10 finishes to keep Wisconsin’s team goals alive. They are each individually capable of being top-10 finishers, but expecting all three of those women to achieve that feat would be asking a lot.
Lastly, keep an eye on Nebraska’s Berlyn Schutz. The sophomore is looking to make a splash after a breakout 4th place finish at the Bill Dellinger Invitational.
Men’s Individual Race (8k):
Bob Liking (Wisconsin)
Elliott Cook (Oregon)
Michael Mireles (UCLA)
Skylar Stidman (Indiana)
Liam Newhart (Wisconsin)
Rowen Ellenberg (Wisconsin)
Tyrone Gorze (Washington)
Leo Daschbach (Washington)
Caleb Jarema (Michigan)
Andrew Nolan (Michigan State)
Nathan Green (Washington)
Adam Spencer (Wisconsin)
Evan Jenkins (Washington)
Micah Wilson (Wisconsin)
Matan Ivri (Wisconsin)
Simeon Birnbaum (Oregon)
Tayson Echohawk (Oregon)
Nathan Walker (Purdue)
Rhys Hammond (Washington)
Luke Venhuizen (Michigan)
Analysis: Wisconsin’s Bob Liking should have no problem defending his BIG 10 XC title from last fall. The Badger senior has proven that he can compete with the nation’s top aerobic talents as evidenced by his impressive 6th place finish at Pre-Nationals.
A victory here would be exactly what his team needs as they aim to defend their team title successfully. However, outside of Liking, it’s truly all to play for.
Oregon’s Elliot Cook is an experienced veteran who has shown tremendous promise on the grass, building on his stellar resume as a middle distance runner. As for UCLA’s Michael Mireles, he was fantastic at the Bill Dillenger Invitational earlier this fall, finishing 6th behind a slew of top-tier BYU runners and convincingly defeating Cook.
Our only concern is that Mireles' Bill Dellinger Invite performance was the only race that we’ve seen from him this season. That, in turn, has made it hard to truly judge what kind of fitness he is in.
Indiana’s Skylar Stidman, like Liking, is a veteran when it comes to the BIG 10. He finished right behind Liking at the Loyola Lakefront Invitational and cracked the top-40 at Pre-Nationals. Also, expect to see Wisconsin’s Liam Newhart and Rowen Ellenberg making some noise as both men have been crucial to the Badgers' scoring structure.
Washington youngster Tyrone Gorze has also been in fine form; he could be another name to watch alongside teammates Nathan Green, Evan Jenkins and Leo Daschbach. We're not entirely sure which of those men will emerge as the Huskies' top scorer, but they're all capable of doing so.
Women's Team Race:
Washington Huskies
Oregon Ducks
Wisconsin Badgers
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Penn State Nittany Lions
Analysis: The Washington women should be able to capture their first BIG 10 title on Friday...depending on how you feel about Oregon.
The Huskies have been remarkable this season, boasting a victory at the Nuttycombe Invite and a strong runner-up effort at Pre-Nationals behind national title favorites BYU. Their scoring contingent offers the perfect blend of firepower and stability, so it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see them flood the top-15.
However, the battle for silver could get interesting.
Wisconsin has already defeated Minnesota, Penn State and an Oregon team without Maddy Elmore (and Silan Ayyildiz) in head-to-head matchups this season. That said, they won’t have it all their own way as each of these teams boasts exceptional low-sticks who could shake up the standings.
Fortunately for the Badgers, their ability to run as a cohesive unit gives them a higher floor than other teams in this field. Leane Willemse, Lindsay Cunningham and Shea Ruhly are all sneaky-good lead scorers. And if their supporting pack can stay close enough to that trio in this race, then Wisconsin will be quietly dangerous in the team standings.
The Duck’s ability to contend with the Huskies, the Badgers and the Gophers hinges on whether or not we see Silan Ayyildiz toe the line in top form. Thankfully for Oregon, Ayyildiz is listed in the entries despite not yet racing this season. And if she is able to emerge as a low-stick, then the Ducks have a realistic shot of taking down Washington.
We like Penn State and Minnesota, but outside of Caron and Weimer, it's challenging to find additional firepower than can help those teams keep pace with their conference opponents. Even so, there's enough scoring supporting behind those low-sticks for the Nittany Lions and Golden Gophers to remain competitive.
Men's Team Race:
Wisconsin Badgers
Washington Huskies
Michigan Wolverines
Oregon Ducks
Michigan State Spartans
Analysis: Realistically, this is the Badgers' race to lose.
The defending BIG 10 champions have a veteran low-stick in Bob Liking and their remaining scoring contingent has displayed exceptional cohesion all season long.
Plus, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to suggest they could get even stronger on Friday. That could happen if mile-centric star Adam Spencer finds his stride in the postseason -- a feat that he has accomplished in the past.
The battle for silver, however, promises to be plenty entertaining.
Washington is likely the favorite for runner-up honors after an impressive 5th place finish at the Nuttycombe Invite. However, we haven’t seen their full quintet since that weekend.
Regardless, the contingent of Tyronze Gorze, Nathan Green, Evan Jenkins and Leo Daschbach are all quietly great names with low-stick potential. Although, actually delivering on that potential is a different story.
Meanwhile, Michigan’s inconsistency has been puzzling. They struggled significantly at Pre-Nationals, but delivered an excellent 6th place finish at the Nuttycombe Invite, leaving us hopeful that they can rise to the occasion. We feel good about Caleb Jarema despite his recent outing, but it's the rest of this team that leaves us scratching our heads.
We then come to Oregon, one of the new faces in the conference. Admittedly, their form is hard to gauge, as the meets that they have contested haven’t been nearly as competitive as their conference counterparts. And when they did race against nationally competitive teams, they haven't looked all that good.
The Ducks have the talent to make a charge for the top-three, but this will undoubtedly be their biggest challenge yet.
Finally, we can’t forget about Michigan State. The Spartans enter with considerable momentum following a strong 17th-place showing at Pre-Nationals. There, they decisively defeated Michigan. Will that momentum be enough to challenge both the Ducks and the Wolverines? It would take a big day, but it's certainly possible.
