.png)
FINAL 2024 NCAA D1 XC Championships Kolas Qualifying Projections
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Nov 15, 2024
- 15 min read
Thanks to the incredible work from our friends at KolasCalc.com and Bo Waggoner at xcquals.com we were able to utilize their websites to construct our national meet qualifying projections for the Division One level. And yes, we made sure to run projections on both sites (and luckily, we got the same answers).
Be sure to check out their sites and play around with your own regional meet orders!
Also, if you want to learn more about the Kolas national qualifying process, be sure to also check out our UNDERSTANDING KOLAS page!
With that being said, here are our official (and final) qualifying projections for the 2024 national meet. Below, we listed all of then automatic qualifiers (the top-two teams in each region) and then broke down how certain teams are expected to receive their at-large bids (the following 13 teams).
Let's begin!
2024 Men's Regional Results
NOTE: TEAMS IN BOLD INDICATE AUTO-LOCKS
GREAT LAKES
1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2. Wisconsin Badgers
3. Butler Bulldogs
4. Michigan State Spartans
5. Purdue Boilermakers
6. Michigan Wolverines
MID-ATLANTIC
1. Villanova Wildcats
2. Princeton Tigers
3. Georgetown Hoyas
4. Navy Midshipmen
MIDWEST
1. Oklahoma State Cowgirls
2. Iowa State Cyclones
3. Tulsa Golden Hurricanes
4. Illinois State Redbirds
MOUNTAIN
1. BYU Cougars
2. New Mexico Lobos
3. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
4. Utah State Aggies
5. Colorado Buffaloes
6. Wyoming Cowboys
7. Montana State Bobcats
8. Texas Tech Red Raiders
9. Colorado State Rams
NORTHEAST
1. Syracuse Orange
2. Harvard Crimson
3. Cornell Big Red
4. Iona Gaels
SOUTH
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
2. Ole Miss Rebels
3. Tennessee Volunteers
4. Florida State Seminoles
SOUTH CENTRAL
1. Arkansas Razorbacks
2. Tulane Green Wave
3. Texas Longhorns
SOUTHEAST
1. Virginia Cavaliers
2. North Carolina Tar Heels
3. Eastern Kentucky Colonels
4. Virginia Tech Hokies 5. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
6. Furman Paladins
WEST
1. Washington Huskies
2. Oregon Ducks
3. Stanford Cardinal
4. California Baptist Lancers
5. Portland Pilots
6. Gonzaga Bulldogs
TSR's Projected Men's At-Large Qualifiers
At-Large Bid #1: Stanford Cardinal
We kick-off our national qualifying at-large selection process by choosing the first eligible team with the most Kolas points. In this case, that is the Stanford men who have 12 Kolas points.
The Cardinal give out one Kolas point to Wake Forest.
At-Large Bid #2: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
Wake Forest has 12 Kolas points, the most among any other team in the selection process at this point. However, they are not yet eligibile to be selected for an at-large spot.
That is because the Demon Deacons must be in the top-two spots of their region among teams who have not yet been selected for the national meet.
Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Northern Arizona men and the Eastern Kentucky men have the most Kolas points (six). We must now move to a "head-to-head" tie-breaker. This will allow us to find out which team will be given the second at-large spot to the NCAA XC Championships.
In this case, the Northern Arizona men and the Eastern Kentucky men have competed against each other once this season. That lone matchup came at Pre-Nationals. There, the Lumberjacks defeated the Colonels. That, in turn, means that NAU wins the tie-breaker.
Northern Arizona gives out zero Kolas points to teams who are still waiting to be selected.
At-Large Bid #3: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
Wake Forest is still not eligible to be selected. They hold 12 Kolas points.
Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Eastern Kentucky men and the Colorado men have the most Kolas points (six). However, the Buffaloes finished in 5th place behind Utah State at the Mountain regional meet.
If the Utah State men were unable to qualify for the national meet on their own, then Colorado would "push" them into the national meet. However, the NCAA wants to avoid any "push" scenarios when possible. And since we know that Colorado will eventually qualify for the national meet later in the selection process, we're willing to bypass them for now.
This means that we can now select Eastern Kentucky to qualify for the national meet. The Colonels give one Kolas point (each) to California Baptist, Colorado, Furman, Michigan, Utah State, Wake Forest and Wyoming.
At-Large Bid #4: Virginia Tech Hokies (push)
At-Large Bid #5: Wake Forest Demon Deacons
The Wake Forest men are now eligible to be selected for an at-large bid. They also have the most Kolas points (13) among any team who is eligible to be selected. Naturally, they should be chosen to advance to the national meet.
However, Virginia Tech finished in 4th place at the Southeast regional meet whereas Wake Forest finished in 5th place behind the Hokies.
The Virginia Tech men have zero Kolas points. They are not projected to advance to the national meet without a "push" scenario. Thankfully for the Hokies, the Wake Forest men do have enough points to qualify for the national meet and can consequentially "push" Virginia Tech into the national meet.
Any teams who are "pushed" into the national meet do not yield Kolas points to other teams who are still waiting to be selected. Wake Forest, however, was the not the team who got pushed in (instead, they were the ones doing the pushing).
Even so, the Demon Deacons do not give any Kolas points to teams who are still waiting to be selected.
At-Large Bid #6: California Baptist Lancers
The Colorado men have the most Kolas points (seven) among all teams who are eligible to be selected to the national meet. However, in order to avoid a "push" scenario (as explained above), we will delay selecting them for now.
The Michigan men do have the next-most Kolas points of teams who are still waiting to be selected. However, they are not yet eligible to be selected.
Among all of the teams (not named Colorado) who are eligibile to be selected, the California Baptist men have the most Kolas points (four). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Lancers are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
CBU gives out zero Kolas points to teams who are still waiting to be selected.
At-Large Bid #7: Utah State Aggies
We are still delaying our selection of Colorado.
Michigan, despite having six Kolas points, is still not eligible to be selected.
Utah State, Butler and Furman are all eligible to be selected for a spot to the NCAA XC Championships. They each have three Kolas points, the most among all eligible teams who are waiting to be selected.
Since each of these three teams are tied with each other in Kolas points, we must defer to a tie-breaking scenario. That, of course, would be the "head-to-head" comparison.
Each of these three teams faced each other earlier this season at Pre-Nationals. There, Utah State defeated both Furman and Butler. With no other matchups to review, we find that the Aggies have an undefeated record against those two teams and are now selected to qualify for the national meet.
Utah State gives out zero Kolas points to teams who are still waiting to be selected.
At-Large Bid #8: Colorado Buffaloes
Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Colorado men have the most Kolas points (seven). And now that Utah State has advanced to the national meet, the NCAA can select Colorado to earn an at-large bid now that the Buffaloes do not "push" in the Aggies.
Colorado gives one Kolas point (each) to Furman, Michigan, Texas Tech and Wyoming.
At-Large Bid #9: Wyoming Cowboys
The Michigan men have the most Kolas points (seven) of any team still waiting to be selected. However, they are still not eligible to be selected.
Both the Wyoming men and the Furman men have the most Kolas points (four) among teams who are eligible to be selected. Therefore, we must move to a "head-to-head" tie-breaker.
In this case, the Wyoming men and the Furman men have competed against each other once this season. That lone matchup came at Pre-Nationals. There, the Cowboys defeated the Paladins. For that reason, Wyoming is the next team selected for the national meet.
Wyoming gives out one Kolas point to Colorado State.
At-Large Bid #10: Furman Paladins
The Michigan men have the most Kolas points (seven) of any team still waiting to be selected. However, they are still not eligible to be selected.
Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Furman men have the most Kolas points (four). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Paladins are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
Furman gives one Kolas point (each) to Air Force, Florida State, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Iona, Michigan, Montana State, Portland and Tulsa.
At-Large Bid #11: Butler Bulldogs
The Michigan men have the most Kolas points (eight) of any team still waiting to be selected. However, they are still not eligible to be selected.
Butler, Georgetown, Tulsa and Iona are all eligible to be selected for a spot to the NCAA XC Championships. They each have three Kolas points, the most among all eligible teams who are waiting to be selected.
Since those three teams are all tied with each other in Kolas points, we must defer to a tie-breaking scenario. That, of course, would be the "head-to-head" comparison.
Butler, Tulsa and Iona all faced each other at Pre-Nationals. There, Butler defeated both Tulsa and Iona. We must also recognize that Butler and Georgetown faced off at the BIG East XC Championships. There, the Bulldogs got the better of the Hoyas.
Regardless of the matchup results between the other three teams, Butler is undefeated this season against the other teams who are in contention to qualify for the national meet. As such, they win the tie-breaker and are the next team selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
Butler gives one Kolas point (each) to Illinois and Indiana.
At-Large Bid #12: Georgetown Hoyas
The Michigan men have the most Kolas points (eight) of any team still waiting to be selected. However, they are still not eligible to be selected.
Georgetown, Tulsa and Iona are all eligible to be selected for a spot to the NCAA XC Championships. They each have three Kolas points, the most among all eligible teams who are waiting to be selected. Indiana also has three Kolas points, but they are not yet eligible to be selected.
Since those three teams are all tied with each other in Kolas points, we must defer to a tie-breaking scenario. That, of course, would be the "head-to-head" comparison.
Georgetown, Tulsa and Iona all faced each other at the Nuttycombe Invite. There, Georgetown defeated both of those teams. Regardless of the matchup result between Tulsa and Iona, it is the Hoyas who are undefeated this season against those two teams. As such, they win the tie-breaker and are the next team selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
Georgetown gives one Kolas point to Michigan.
At-Large Bid #13: Tulsa Golden Hurricanes
The Michigan men have the most Kolas points (nine) of any team still waiting to be selected. However, they are still not eligible to be selected. Meanwhile, Indiana has three Kolas points, but are also not eligible to be selected.
Given that this is the final national qualifying spot available, neither Michigan nor Indiana will advance to the 2024 NCAA XC Championships.
Tulsa and Iona both have three Kolas points. However, Iona finished in 4th place at the Northeast regional meet. They were bested by Cornell who placed 3rd.
In order for Iona to qualify for the national meet, they would have had to "push" the Cornell men into the national meet. Of course, there is only one national meet qualifying spot left. That means that neither Iona nor Cornell will advance to the national meet this year.
Among all of the other teams who are eligibile to be selected, this leaves the Tulsa men as the last team standing. They have three Kolas points. With no other technicalities to worry about, the Golden Hurricanes are selected as the last team to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
If there had been any further Kolas calculations, Tulsa would have given one Kolas point (each) to Air Force, Florida State, Gonzaga, Iona, Michigan, Michigan State, Montana State and Portland.
First Team Out: Michigan State Spartans
If we were to continue our Kolas math beyond the 13 at-large bids, which team would emerge as the "First Team Out" of the national meet?
Michigan, despite having 10 Kolas points, is not eligible to be selected for this non-existent 14th spot. Neither is Indiana, a team with three Kolas points.
Yes, the Iona men do have three Kolas points, but as we just explained above, they would have to push in Cornell in order for them to secure this spot -- and that can't happen when there is one spot remaining.
That, in turn, leaves the Michigan State men with the most Kolas points (three) among teams who are eligible to be selected.
As a result, the Spartans are projected to be our "First Team Out" of this year's national meet.
2024 Women's Regional Results
NOTE: TEAMS IN BOLD INDICATE AUTO-LOCKS
GREAT LAKES
1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2. Wisconsin Badgers
3. Toledo Rockets
4. Michigan State Spartans
MID-ATLANTIC
1. West Virginia Mountaineers
2. Georgetown Hoyas
3. Penn State Nittany Lions
4. Princeton Tigers
5. Villanova Wildcats
MIDWEST
1. Oklahoma State Cowgirls
2. Minnesota Golden Gophers
3. Northwestern Wildcats
4. Iowa State Cyclones
MOUNTAIN
1. BYU Cougars
2. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
3. New Mexico Lobos
4. Utah Utes
5. Utah Valley Wolverines
NORTHEAST
1. Providence Friars
2. Syracuse Orange
3. Boston College Golden Eagles
4. Harvard Crimson
5. Connecticut Huskies
SOUTH
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
2. Florida Gators
3. Florida State Seminoles
4. Tennessee Volunteers
5. Lipscomb Bison
SOUTH CENTRAL
1. Arkansas Razorbacks
2. Texas Longhorns
3. Tulane Green Wave
4. LSU Tigers
SOUTHEAST
1. NC State Wolfpack
2. Virginia Cavaliers
3. North Carolina Tar Heels
4. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
5. Liberty Flames
6. Clemson Tigers
7. Louisville Cardinals
8. Furman Paladins
WEST
1. Oregon Ducks
2. Stanford Cardinal
3. Washington Huskies
4. Gonzaga Bulldogs
5. Portland Pilots
6. Boise State Broncos
TSR's Projected Women's At-Large Qualifiers
At-Large Bid #1: Washington Huskies
We kick-off our national qualifying at-large selection process by choosing the first eligible team with the most Kolas points. In this case, that is the Washington women who have 20 Kolas points.
The Huskies give out zero Kolas points to teams who are still waiting to be selected.
At-Large Bid #2: New Mexico Lobos
Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the New Mexico women have the most Kolas points (10). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Lobos are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
New Mexico gives out zero Kolas points to teams who are still waiting to be selected.
At-Large Bid #3: Utah Utes
Both the Utah women and the Florida State women are tied with eight Kolas points each. This means that we must move to a "head-to-head" tie-breaker. This will allow us to find out which team will be given the third at-large spot to the NCAA XC Championships.
The Utah women and Florida State women raced against each other once this season. That matchup came at the Nuttycombe Inviter where the Utes defeated the Seminoles. For that reasoning, Utah is given the third spot in our at-large selection process.
The Utes gives out zero Kolas points to teams who are still waiting to be selected.
At-Large Bid #4: Florida State Seminoles
Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Florida State women have the most Kolas points (eight). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Seminoles are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
Florida State gives out one Kolas point (each) to Furman, Gonzaga, Lipscomb, Penn State and Villanova. They also give out two Kolas points (each) to Boston College and North Carolina.
At-Large Bid #5: North Carolina Tar Heels
Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the North Carolina women have the most Kolas points (nine). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Tar Heels are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
North Carolina gives out one Kolas point to Furman.
At-Large Bid #6: Penn State Nittany Lions
The Furman women have the most Kolas points (eight) of any team still waiting to be selected. However, they are not yet eligible to be selected. That is because the Paladins must be in the top-two spots of their region among teams who have not yet been selected for the national meet.
Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Penn State women have the most Kolas points (five). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Nittany Lions are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
Penn State gives one Kolas point (each) to Furman and Gonzaga.
At-Large Bid #7: Gonzaga Bulldogs
The Furman women have the most Kolas points (nine) of any team still waiting to be selected. However, they are still not eligible to be selected.
Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Gonzaga women have the most Kolas points (five). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Bulldogs are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
Gonzaga gives one Kolas point to Furman.
At-Large Bid #8: Boston College Golden Eagles
The Furman women have the most Kolas points (10) of any team still waiting to be selected. However, they are still not eligible to be selected.
Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Boston College women have the most Kolas points (four). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Golden Eagles are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
Boston College gives one Kolas point (each) to Lipscomb, Michigan State, Toledo and Villanova. They also give two Kolas points to Furman.
At-Large Bid #9: Toledo Rockets
The Furman women have the most Kolas points (12) of any team still waiting to be selected. However, they are still not eligible to be selected.
The Lipscomb women have four Kolas points. They are eligibile to be selected for an at-large bid as there is no other eligible team who has four or more Kolas points. However, the Bison finished in 5th place behind Tennessee at the South regional meet.
If the Tennessee women were unable to qualify for the national meet on their own, then Lipscomb would "push" them into the national meet. However, the NCAA wants to avoid any "push" scenarios when possible. And since we know that Lipscomb will eventually qualify for the national meet later in the selection process, we're willing to bypass them for now.
This leaves Toledo and Tennessee with three Kolas points (each), the most among all eligible teams who are still waiting to be selected (other than Lipscomb). We must now move to a "head-to-head" tie-breaking scenario given that Toledo and Tennessee have the same number of Kolas points.
The Rockets and Volunteers have competed against each other once this season. That lone matchup came at Pre-Nationals. There, Toledo defeated Tennessee. For that reason, Toledo wins the tie-breaker and earns the at-large bid.
The Rockets give one Kolas point (each) to Furman, Lipscomb, Louisville and Michigan State.
At-Large Bid #10: Michigan State Spartans
The Furman women have the most Kolas points (13) of any team still waiting to be selected. However, they are still not eligible to be selected.
Meanwhile, Lipscomb has five Kolas points, the most among all teams who are eligible to be selected. But as we mentioned above, we want to avoid a "push" scenario and we know that Lipscomb will qualify on their own later in the selection process.
This leaves us with the Michigan State women who have the most Kolas points (eight) among all teams who are eligible to be selected...other than Lipscomb. With no other technicalities to worry about, the Spartans are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
Michigan State gives out one Kolas point (each) to Boise State, Furman, Liberty, Lipscomb, Texas Tech and Wyoming.
At-Large Bid #11: Tennessee Volunteers
The Furman women have the most Kolas points (14) of any team still waiting to be selected. However, they are still not eligible to be selected.
Meanwhile, Lipscomb has six Kolas points, the most among all teams who are eligible to be selected. But as we mentioned earlier, we want to avoid a "push" scenario and we know that Lipscomb will qualify on their own later in the selection process.
This leaves us with the Tennessee women who have the most Kolas points (three) among all teams who are eligible to be selected...other than Lipscomb. With no other technicalities to worry about, the Volunteers are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
Tennessee gives out one Kolas point (each) to Furman, Harvard, Liberty, Lipscomb and Utah Valley.
At-Large Bid #12: Lipscomb Bison
The Furman women have the most Kolas points (15) of any team still waiting to be selected. However, they are still not eligible to be selected.
Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Lipscomb women have the most Kolas points (seven). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Bison are finally selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships now that Tennessee is no longer in front of them.
Lipscomb gives out one Kolas point to Villanova and two Kolas points to Furman.
At-Large Bid #13: Harvard Crimson
The Furman women have the most Kolas points (16) of any team still waiting to be selected. However, they are still not eligible to be selected. Since this is the last and final at-large bid that the NCAA will give out, we can say that the Paladin women will not qualify for this year's national meet.
The Liberty women and Villanova women both have three Kolas points, the most among all eligible teams who are waiting to be selected. However, both of those teams finished in 5th place in their respective regions. Princeton finished one spot ahead of Villanova and Wake Forest finished one spot ahead of Liberty.
In order for Liberty or Villanova to qualify for the national meet, they would have had to "push" in the team in front of them into the national meet. Of course, there is only one national meet qualifying spot left. That means that neither Liberty or Villanova will advance to the national meet this year.
Among all of the other teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Harvard women have the most Kolas points (two). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Crimson are selected as the last team to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
If there had been any further Kolas calculations, Harvard would have given one Kolas point (each) to Furman, Liberty and Princeton.
First Team Out: Princeton Tigers
If we were to continue our Kolas math beyond the 13 at-large bids, which team would emerge as the "First Team Out" of the national meet?
Since there is only one theoretical (and non-existent) spot remaining, any team that finished behind another team in their region who also has not been selected will not be considered for this spot. Despite Furman, Louisville and Villanova having more Kolas points than everyone else, they will not be considered for this spot.
This leaves us with LSU, Princeton, Northwestern and Utah Valley as the teams who could be our "First Team Out." They each hold one Kolas point. This means that we need to utilize a tie-breaking scenario where we compare "head-to-head" matchups.
Oddly enough, none of these teams have faced each other at any point this season. This means that we must move on to the second tie-breaking scenario -- record against common opponents.
While our Kolas calculator does not provide the answer for who the "First Team Out" would be, our friends at KolasCalc.com were able to do some additional calculations. And in this instance, it seems that Princeton wins the "common opponents" tie-breaker to become our "First Team Out" of the national meet.
