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Kolas: 2024 NCAA D1 XC Championships Qualifying Projections
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Nov 13, 2024
- 15 min read
Thanks to the incredible work from our friends at KolasCalc.com and Bo Waggoner at xcquals.com we were able to utilize their websites to construct our national meet qualifying projections for the Division One level. And yes, we made sure to run projections on both sites (and luckily, we got the same answers).
Be sure to check out their sites and play around with your own regional meet orders!
Also, if you want to learn more about the Kolas national qualifying process, be sure to also check out our UNDERSTANDING KOLAS page!
With that being said, here are our official qualifying projections for the 2024 national meet. Below, we listed all of our automatic qualifiers (the projected top-two teams in each region) and then broke down how certain teams are expected to receive their at-large bids (the following 13 teams).
Let's begin!
TSR's Projected Men's Regional Results
NOTE: TEAMS IN BOLD INDICATE AUTO-LOCKS
GREAT LAKES
1. Wisconsin Badgers
2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
3. Butler Bulldogs
4. Michigan State Spartans
5. Michigan Wolverines
6. Indiana Hoosiers
MID-ATLANTIC
1. Villanova Wildcats
2. Princeton Tigers
3. Georgetown Hoyas
4. Navy Midshipmen
MIDWEST
1. Oklahoma State Cowgirls
2. Iowa State Cyclones
3. Tulsa Golden Hurricanes
4. Missouri Tigers
MOUNTAIN
1. BYU Cougars
2. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
3. New Mexico Lobos
4. Wyoming Cowboys
5. Utah State Aggies
6. Texas Tech Red Raiders
7. Colorado Buffaloes
8. Montana State Bobcats
9. Colorado State Rams
NORTHEAST
1. Syracuse Orange
2. Harvard Crimson
3. Iona Gaels
4. Cornell Big Red
5. Providence Friars
SOUTH
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
2. Ole Miss Rebels
3. Tennessee Volunteers
4. Florida State Seminoles
SOUTH CENTRAL
1. Arkansas Razorbacks
2. Texas Longhorns
3. Tulane Green Wave
4. Texas A&M Aggies
SOUTHEAST
1. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
2. North Carolina Tar Heels
3. Virginia Cavaliers
4. Eastern Kentucky Colonels
5. Furman Paladins
6. NC State Wolfpack
7. Virginia Tech Hokies
WEST
1. Stanford Cardinal
2. Portland Pilots
3. Washington Huskies
4. Oregon Ducks
5. California Baptist Lancers
6. Gonzaga Bulldogs
7. Cal Poly Mustangs
8. Boise State Broncos
TSR's Projected Men's At-Large Qualifiers
At-Large Bid #1: New Mexico Lobos
We kick-off our national qualifying at-large selection process by choosing the first eligible team with the most Kolas points. In this case, that is the New Mexico men who have eight Kolas points.
The Lobos give out zero Kolas points to teams who are still waiting to be selected.
At-Large Bid #2: Washington Huskies
Both the Washington men and the Eastern Kentucky men are tied with six Kolas points each.
Colorado and Michigan also have six Kolas points (each), but they are not yet eligibile to be selected for an at-large spot. That is because those squads must be in the top-two spots of their region among teams who have not yet been selected for the national meet.
When it comes to Washington and Eastern Kentucky, we must move to a "head-to-head" tie-breaker. This will allow us to find out which team will be given the second at-large spot to the NCAA XC Championships.
In this case, the Washington men and the Eastern Kentucky men have competed against each other twice, once at the Nuttycombe Invite and once at Pre-Nationals. The Washington men beat Eastern Kentucky at the former meet while the Eastern Kentucky men beat Washington at the latter meet.
Typically, if both teams have the same "head-to-head" records against each other, than the tie-breaker would be won by whichever team mostly recently defeated the other. In this case, that is Eastern Kentucky.
The catch, however, is that the Washington men did not seemingly run their "A" lineup at that meet. In other words, that result is negligible in these calculations
That, in turn, means that there is only one "head-to-head" matchup that we can evaluate. For that reason, Washington is given the second at-large qualifying spot to the national meet.
The Huskies give out zero Kolas points to teams who are still waiting to be selected.
At-Large Bid #3: Virginia Cavaliers
Colorado and Michigan are still not eligible to be selected. Both teams still hold six Kolas points (each).
The Eastern Kentucky men have six Kolas points. They are eligibile to be selected for an at-large bid and there is no other eligible team that has six or more Kolas points. However, the Colonels are projected to finish in 4th place behind Virginia at the Southeast regional meet.
If the Virginia men were unable to qualify for the national meet on their own, then Eastern Kentucky would "push" them into the national meet. However, the NCAA wants to avoid any "push" scenarios when possible. And since we know that Eastern Kentucky will eventually qualify for the national meet later in the selection process, we're willing to bypass them for now.
This leaves Virginia with four Kolas points, the most among all eligible teams who are still waiting to be selected (other than EKU). As such, UVA is selected to advance to the national meet.
The Cavaliers give out one Kolas point (each) to Colorado, Michigan and Eastern Kentucky.
At-Large Bid #4: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
Colorado and Michigan are still not eligible to be selected. Both teams hold seven Kolas points (each).
Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Eastern Kentucky men have the most Kolas points (seven). And now that Virginia has advanced to the national meet, the NCAA can select EKU to earn an at-large bid now that the Colonels do not "push" in the Cavaliers.
EKU gives one Kolas point (each) to California Baptist, Colorado, Furman, Michigan, Utah State and Wyoming.
At-Large Bid #5: Oregon Ducks (push)
At-Large Bid #6: California Baptist Lancers
Colorado and Michigan are still not eligible to be selected. Both teams hold eight Kolas points (each).
The California Baptist men are eligible to be selected for an at-large bid. They also have the most Kolas points (four) among any team that is eligible to be selected. Naturally, they should be chosen to advance to the national meet.
However, we are projecting the CBU men to finish in 5th place at the West Regional XC Championships. We are also predicting the Oregon men to finish one spot ahead of them in 4th place.
The Oregon men have one Kolas point. They are not projected to advance to the national meet without a "push" scenario. Thankfully for the Ducks, the CBU men do have enough points to qualify for the national meet and can consequentially "push" Oregon into the national meet at the same time.
Any teams who are "pushed" into the national meet do not yield Kolas points to other teams who are still waiting to be selected. California Baptist, however, was the not the team who got pushed in (instead, they were the ones doing the pushing).
Even so, the Lancers do not give any Kolas points to teams who are still waiting to be selected.
At-Large Bid #7: Wyoming Cowboys
Colorado and Michigan are still not eligible to be selected. Both teams hold eight Kolas points (each).
Wyoming, Georgetown and Furman are all eligible to be selected for a spot to the NCAA XC Championships. They each have three Kolas points, the most among all eligible teams who are waiting to be selected.
Since each of these three teams are tied with each other in Kolas points, we must defer to a tie-breaking scenario. That, of course, would be the "head-to-head" comparison.
Wyoming beat Furman earlier this season at Pre-Nationals.
Georgetown beat Furman earlier this season at the Nuttycombe Invite.
Furman has lost the tie-breaker. Wyoming and Georgetown never faced each other and both of their "head-to-head" tie-breaking records are 1-0. This leads us to go to the next tie-breaking scenario: record against common opponents.
While Wyoming and Georgetown have not competed against each other directly this season, they did race against a large handful of the same teams. Therefore, we must determine how well Wyoming and Georgetown did against those teams. Whichever team has the greater win record will win this at-large spot.
To avoid the minutiae of these common opponent records, our trusty Kolas calculator has told us that Wyoming would win this tie-breaking scenario. Therefore, Wyoming is the next team selected to qualify for the national meet.
Wyoming gives out one Kolas point (each) to Utah State and Colorado State.
At-Large Bid #8: Utah State Aggies
Colorado and Michigan are still not eligible to be selected. Both teams hold eight Kolas points (each).
Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Utah State men have the most Kolas points (four). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Aggies are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
Utah State does not give any Kolas points to teams who are still waiting to be selected.
At-Large Bid #9: Texas Tech Red Raiders (push)
At-Large Bid #10: Colorado Buffaloes
Michigan is still not eligible to be selected. They have eight Kolas points.
The Colorado men are now eligible to be selected. They have the most Kolas points (eight) among any team who is eligible to be selected at this point in the qualifying process. Naturally, they should be chosen to advance to the national meet.
However, we are projecting the Colorado men to finish in 7th place at the Mountain Regional XC Championships. We are also predicting the Texas Tech men to finish one spot ahead of them in 6th place.
The Texas Tech men have zero Kolas points. They are not projected to advance to the national meet without a "push" scenario. Thankfully for the Red Raiders, the Colorado men have enough points to qualify for the national meet and can consequentially "push" Texas Tech into the national meet at the same time.
Any team who was "pushed" into the national meet does not yield Kolas points to other teams who are still waiting to be selected. Colorado, however, was the not the team who got pushed in (instead, they were the ones doing the pushing).
The Buffaloes give one Kolas point (each) to Furman and Michigan.
At-Large Bid #11: Furman Paladins
Michigan is still not eligible to be selected. They have nine Kolas points.
Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Furman men have the most Kolas points (four). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Paladins are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
Furman gives one Kolas point (each) to Air Force, Florida State, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Iona, Michigan, Montana State and Tulsa.
At-Large Bid #12: Georgetown Hoyas
Michigan is still not eligible to be selected. They have 10 Kolas points.
Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Georgetown men have the most Kolas points (four). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Hoyas are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
Georgetown gives one Kolas point (each) to Butler and Michigan.
At-Large Bid #13: Butler Bulldogs
Michigan is still not eligible to be selected. They have 11 Kolas points. This is also the final at-large national qualifying spot that can be filled. In turn, the Wolverines are not expected to advance to the NCAA XC Championships.
Butler, Tulsa and Iona are all eligible to be selected for a spot to the NCAA XC Championships. They each have three Kolas points, the most among all eligible teams who are waiting to be selected.
Since each of these three teams are tied with each other in Kolas points, we must defer to a tie-breaking scenario. That, of course, would be the "head-to-head" comparison.
Butler beat both Tulsa and Iona earlier this season at Pre-Nationals. Butler also did not race against those teams at any other point this fall.
With an undefeated record against the other two at-large candidates, the Bulldogs are projected to earn the final spot to the NCAA XC Championships.
If there had been any further Kolas calculations, Butler would have given one Kolas point (each) to Indiana and Illinois.
First Team Out: Iona Gaels
If we were to continue our Kolas math beyond the 13 at-large bids, which team would emerge as the "First Team Out" of the national meet?
The Michigan men have 11 Kolas points. And with Butler now into the national meet, the Wolverines would be eligible to be selected for the non-existent 14th at-large qualifying spot. However, there is only one theoretical spot remaining and Michigan is projected to finish behind Michigan State, another team in their region who has not yet been selected.
For that reason, Michigan would be not be considered our "First Team Out," since two teams can't occupy one spot.
This leaves Tulsa and Iona with the most Kolas points (three) among all eligible teams. Since these two teams are tied with each other in Kolas points, we must defer to a tie-breaking scenario. That, of course, would be the "head-to-head" comparison.
Iona beat Tulsa earlier this season at Pre-Nationals.
Tulsa beat Iona earlier this season at the Nuttycombe Invite.
However, Iona's win over Tulsa came more recently than it did for the Golden Hurricanes. As a result, the Gaels are the "First Team Out" of the national meet.
TSR's Projected Women's Regional Results
NOTE: TEAMS IN BOLD INDICATE AUTO-LOCKS
GREAT LAKES
1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2. Wisconsin Badgers
3. Toledo Rockets
4. Michigan State Spartans
5. Michigan Wolverines
MID-ATLANTIC
1. Georgetown Hoyas
2. West Virginia Mountaineers
3. Penn State Nittany Lions
4. Villanova Wildcats
5. Princeton Tigers
MIDWEST
1. Oklahoma State Cowgirls
2. Minnesota Golden Gophers
3. Northwestern Wildcats
4. Iowa State Cyclones
MOUNTAIN
1. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
2. BYU Cougars
3. Utah Utes
4. New Mexico Lobos
5. Utah Valley Wolverines
6. Colorado State Rams
NORTHEAST
1. Providence Friars
2. Boston College Golden Eagles
3. Syracuse Orange
4. Harvard Crimson
5. Connecticut Huskies
SOUTH
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
2. Tennessee Volunteers
3. Florida Gators
4. Florida State Seminoles
5. Lipscomb Bison
SOUTH CENTRAL
1. Arkansas Razorbacks
2. Texas Longhorns
3. Tulane Green Wave
4. LSU Tigers
SOUTHEAST
1. North Carolina Tar Heels
2. Virginia Cavaliers
3. NC State Wolfpack
4. Furman Paladins
5. Liberty Flames
6. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
WEST
1. Oregon Ducks
2. Washington Huskies
3. Stanford Cardinal
4. Gonzaga Bulldogs
5. Portland Pilots
6. Boise State Broncos
TSR's Projected Women's At-Large Qualifiers
At-Large Bid #1: Stanford Cardinal
Both the Stanford women and the NC State women have the most Kolas points (10) among teams who are eligible to be selected. Therefore, we must move to a "head-to-head" tie-breaker. This will allow us to find out which team will be given the first at-large spot to the NCAA XC Championships.
In this case, the Stanford women and the NC State women have competed against each other twice, once at Pre-Nationals and once at the ACC XC Championships.
NC State beat Stanford earlier this season at Pre-Nationals.
Stanford beat NC State earlier this season at the ACC XC Championships.
However, Stanford's win over NC State came more recently than it did for the Wolfpack. For that reason, the Cardinal are selected to qualify for the national meet.
Stanford gives out one Kolas point (each) to Florida, Florida State, NC State and New Mexico.
At-Large Bid #2: NC State Wolfpack
Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the NC State women have the most Kolas points (11). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Wolfpack are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
NC State gives out one Kolas point to New Mexico.
At-Large Bid #3: Utah Utes
Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the New Mexico women have the most Kolas points (10). In theory, they should be the team who is next selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
However, the Lobos are projected to finish in 4th place behind Utah at the Mountain regional meet.
If the Utah women were unable to qualify for the national meet on their own, then New Mexico would "push" them into the national meet. However, the NCAA wants to avoid any "push" scenarios when possible. And since we know that New Mexico will eventually qualify for the national meet later in the selection process, we're willing to bypass them for now.
This leaves Virginia and Florida with nine Kolas points each, the most among all eligible teams who are still waiting to be selected (other than New Mexico). In order to determine which of these two teams will take this at-large spot, we must go to the tie-breaking process.
We must first compare the "head-to-head" matchups that Utah and Florida have had against each other. The only problem is that these two teams have not yet raced against each other this fall. That means that we must move on to the next tie-breaking option -- record against common opponents.
While Utah and Florida have not competed against each other directly this season, they did race against a large handful of the same teams. Therefore, we must determine how well Utah and Florida did against those teams. Whichever team has the greater win record will win this at-large spot.
To avoid the minutiae of these common opponent records, our trusty Kolas calculator has told us that Utah would win this tie-breaking scenario. Therefore, Utah is the next team selected to qualify for the national meet.
Utah does not give out any Kolas points.
At-Large Bid #4: New Mexico Lobos
Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the New Mexico women have the most Kolas points (10). And now that Utah has advanced to the national meet, the NCAA can select New Mexico to earn an at-large bid now that the Lobos do not "push" in the Utes.
New Mexico does not give out any Kolas points.
At-Large Bid #5: Florida Gators
Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Florida women have the most Kolas points (nine). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Gators are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
Florida gives one Kolas point (each) to Florida State and Ole Miss.
At-Large Bid #6: Florida State Seminoles
Florida State and Furman are both eligible to be selected for a spot to the NCAA XC Championships. They each have eight Kolas points, the most among all eligible teams who are waiting to be selected.
Since these two teams are tied with each other in Kolas points, we must defer to a tie-breaking scenario. That, of course, would be the "head-to-head" comparison.
Florida State beat Furman earlier this season at Pre-Nationals.
Furman beat Florida State earlier this season at the Nuttycombe Invite.
Despite both teams having a win over each other, Florida State's win over Furman came more recently. For that reason, the Seminoles are selected to qualify for the national meet.
Florida State gives out one Kolas point (each) to Furman, Gonzaga, Lipscomb, Penn State, Syracuse and Villanova.
At-Large Bid #7: Furman Paladins
Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Furman women have the most Kolas points (nine). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Paladins are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
Furman does not give any Kolas points to teams who are still waiting to be selected.
At-Large Bid #8: Syracuse Orange
Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Syracuse women have the most Kolas points (six). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Orange are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
Syracuse gives one Kolas point to Gonzaga and two Kolas points to Penn State.
At-Large Bid #9: Penn State Nittany Lions
Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Penn State women have the most Kolas points (six). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Nittany Lions are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
Penn States gives one Kolas point to Gonzaga.
At-Large Bid #10: Gonzaga Bulldogs
Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Gonzaga women have the most Kolas points (six). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Bulldogs are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
Gonzaga does not give any Kolas points to teams who are still waiting to be selected.
At-Large Bid #11: Lipscomb Bison
Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Lipscomb women have the most Kolas points (five). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Bison are selected to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
Lipscomb does not give any Kolas points to teams who are still waiting to be selected.
At-Large Bid #12: Toledo Rockets
The Toledo women and Michigan State women have five Kolas points (each). They are both eligibile to be selected for an at-large bid. There are no other eligible teams who have five or more Kolas points.
However, the Michigan State women are projected to finish in 4th place behind Toledo at the Great Lakes regional meet. There is no need to utilize a tie-breaking scenario, mainly because the 4th place team in a region cannot advance without the 3rd place team in that same region also advancing.
With Toledo defeating Michigan State at their regional meet, the Rockets would get the nod for this at-large national qualifying spot regardless of the fact that they both have the same number of Kolas points.
Toledo gives one Kolas point (each) to Louisville and Michigan State.
At-Large Bid #13: Michigan State Spartans
Among all of the teams who are eligibile to be selected, the Michigan State women have the most Kolas points (five). With no other technicalities to worry about, the Spartans are the final team to earn an at-large qualifying spot to this year's NCAA XC Championships.
If there had been any further Kolas calculations, Michigan State would have given one Kolas point (each) to Boise State, Liberty, Texas Tech and Wyoming.
First Team Out: Villanova Wildcats
If we were to continue our Kolas math beyond the 13 at-large bids, which team would emerge as the "First Team Out" of the national meet?
Villanova and Liberty have the most Kolas points (three) among all eligible teams. Since these two teams are tied with each other in Kolas points, we must defer to a tie-breaking scenario. That, of course, would be the "head-to-head" comparison.
The challenge, however, is that neither of these teams have faced each other in a "head-to-head" matchup this season. That means that we must move on to the next tie-breaking option -- record against common opponents.
While Villanova and Liberty have not competed against each other directly this season, they did race against a large handful of the same teams. Therefore, we must determine how well Villanova and Liberty did against those teams. Whichever team has the greater win record will secure this non-existent 14th spot.
While our Kolas calculator does not provide the answer for who the "First Team Out" would be, we are still able to do some calculations by hand. And in this instance, it seems that Villanova somewhat comfortably wins the "common opponents" tie-breaker over Liberty.
As a result, the Wildcats are projected to be our "First Team Out" of this year's national meet.
