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The Kolas Conundrum(s): Potential Madness in the Great Lakes Region & Are the Oregon Men Safe?
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Nov 14, 2024
- 9 min read
Last night, The Stride Report published our official Kolas projections for which teams will qualify for this year's NCAA D1 XC Championships. Of course, our projections are just one of many scenarios that could unfold throughout tomorrow.
Below, we wanted to highlight some of the biggest and most important regions that could dictate who the last few teams to qualify for the national meet will be.
If you want to run your own calculations, then you can go to KolasCalc.com or xcquals.com and play around with the orders in each region! If you're someone who is struggling to understand how this national qualifying system works, then you can visit our UNDERSTANDING KOLAS page.
And, of course, if you want to see our official projections, then you can check them out by reviewing our KOLAS page.
Alright...let's get into it.
NOTE: The Stride Report is using our original Kolas projections as the basis for this article. Other projections from other outlets/individuals could look very different based on the smallest differences. The below analysis should not be viewed as definitive, but rather what TSR has calculated in a handful of realistic scenarios.
Are the Oregon Men Safe in the National Qualifying Conversation? We're Not Convinced That They Are...
Our Current Scenario
The NCAA's cross country national qualifying process (also known as Kolas) is extremely dynamic. Attempting to predict which teams will advance to the national meet is not as simple as picking 31 programs and moving on.
The smallest adjustment in the results of one regional meet could cause an avalanche of change throughout the country. That, in turn, could leave a handful of deserving teams out of the national qualifying picture (and it's happened before).
Take this year's West regional meet on the mens side for example.
In our current scenario, we have the Stanford men and the Portland men earning automatic national qualifying positions (top-two) in the West region. Behind them, we have Washington, Oregon and California Baptist crossing the line in 3rd, 4th and 5th place (in that order).
If our predictions for that region are correct, then all five of those teams will likely be advancing to the NCAA XC Championships.
What Could Change
Admittedly, the Portland men may not be the popular pick to earn the second automatic qualifying spot in the West region. In the eyes of many, Washington is seemingly favored to earn that position.
So...what happens in that scenario?
If we see an order of Stanford, Washington, Portland, Oregon and CBU on Friday, and then apply that order to our Kolas projections, then ONLY Stanford and Washington move on.
Portland, Oregon and CBU would all end their seasons early.
But what happens if Oregon gets 3rd place? Well, if Portland is the 4th place team, then the Ducks STILL don't get in. However, if California Baptist is the 4th place team, then the Lancers would "push" Oregon into the national meet.
Major Takeaways
To put it simply, the Oregon men MUST beat one of Stanford, Washington or California Baptist if they want to qualify for the national meet. Not only that, but they must beat one of those three teams and then ensure that one of them finishes directly behind them in the final results. Portland does not help them.
This exercise of Kolas acrobatics largely doesn't matter if Oregon emerges as a top-two team in the region. However, there are arguably just as many scenarios where the Ducks don't qualify for the national meet as there are scenarios where they do advance.
And on one final note, everything that we just said assumes that Gonzaga will not crack the top-five -- and that is very much a possibility.
The Toledo & Michigan State Women Seemingly Have a 50/50 Shot of Qualifying for the NCAA XC Championships
Our Current Scenario
When it comes to our women's Kolas projections, we have the Notre Dame women and Wisconsin women taking the top-two spots in the Great Lakes region. We feel pretty good about that happening and don't expect that to change.
However, in the 3rd and 4th place positions, we have Toledo and Michigan State filling those spots, respectively. And if our predictions for the other regional meets actually play out how we think they will, then both the Rockets and the Spartans will have qualified for the national meet.
Sure, it's unlikely that our predictions will be perfectly correct, but compared to the men's side, the women's regional meets seemingly hold far less volatility.
In fact, Toledo and Michigan State could switch spots in our projections and they would both still qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
What Could Change
Despite both Toledo and Michigan State being projected to advance to the national meet, the smallest change in two or three other regions could ultimately be their downfall on Friday.
For instance, what would happen if Liberty took 4th place in the Southeast region, beating out a team like Virginia, Furman, UNC or NC State? In that scenario, Liberty gets "pushed" into the national meet and Michigan State does not advance (but Toledo still does).
And what if there was an unexpected "push" scenario in yet another region?
Maybe that's Penn State pushing in Villanova in the Mid-Atlantic region, Florida pushing in Tennessee in the South region or Texas pushing in LSU in the South Central region. If a second region produces a "push" scenario, then neither Toledo nor Michigan State would qualify for the national meet.
But let's erase everything and go back to our original qualifying projections.
What would happen if the Tulane women take down Texas for the second automatic national qualifying spot? Well, that scenario, the Longhorns would actually grab an at-large bid, taking a spot away from Michigan State.
Toledo, however, would remain in the national meet field.
Major Takeaways
Ultimately, the Toledo women and Michigan State women are going to be at the mercy of other teams in other regions. They will be praying for zero "push" scenarios to happen.
If just one "push" scenario does happen, then the 4th place team in the Great Lakes region is likely not qualifying for the national meet. And if there is a second "push" scenario, then it's very possible that the Great Lakes region does not produce an at-large bid at all for this year's NCAA XC Championships.
The West & Great Lakes Regions Control the Destinies of the Georgetown, Tulsa & Iona Men
Our Current Scenario
Of the three teams mentioned above, Georgetown is likely the safest in terms of national qualifying. There are a large handful of (realistic) scenarios where, as long as the Hoyas place 3rd in the Mid-Atlantic region, they will earn a spot to the national meet.
That, of course, is not to say that Georgetown is invincible. There are still multiple scenarios where the DC-based men fail to advance to the NCAA's grand finale.
But...what about everyone else?
What Could Change
The Great Lakes region is going to be madness. The Butler men, the Michigan State men and the Michigan men should be entering Friday's race focused in each other. Sure, they could try to beat Wisconsin and/or Notre Dame to earn an automatic qualifying spot, but an upset of that magnitude seems unlikely.
The ultimate goal should be to place 3rd at the Great Lakes regional meet. If Butler or Michigan are able to accomplish that, then they would qualify for the national meet in nearly every realistic scenario that we have run.
There is a scenario where Michigan State places 3rd and does not advance to the NCAA XC Championships. However, that likely means that Butler was the 4th place team behind them. If the Michigan men are the 4th place team behind them, then the Spartans would get "pushed" into the national meet by their in-state rivals.
That, in turn, would be one of the few instances where Georgetown does not qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
But if the Butler men were to be that 4th place team behind Michigan State, then the Great Lakes region would not be given an at-large bid to the national meet in our projections. Instead, fringe teams such as Georgetown and Iona would be given the nod. Tulsa, however, would still be absent.
In our current Kolas projections, we have five teams making it out of the West region (two autos and three at-large bids). However, as we mentioned above, it is very possible that the West region does not receive a single at-large bid at all!
If that happens, then that gives the teams in the Great Lakes region far greater breathing room. Butler, Michigan and Michigan State would all advance to the national meet (in that order) while Georgetown and Iona would also find spots to the "Big Dance."
And yet, even in that scenario, Tulsa doesn't find themselves on the national stage. In order for that to happen, Tulsa needs to hope that Michigan State does not get into the national meet, whether that be through an at-large bid or a "push" scenario.
If the Spartans fall too far back, then the door opens for the Golden Hurricanes...assuming that the West region does not send more than two teams to Madison, Wisconsin.
Major Takeaways
I know that was a lot of nitty-gritty analysis, so let's summarize all of that as effectively as we can...
The Georgetown men are not guaranteed to get into the national meet, but they have a very good shot of doing so.
Teams in the Great Lakes regions, as well as Georgetown, Iona and Tulsa, are all rooting against the men's teams in the West region.
Tulsa has a chance of qualifying for the national meet, but that would require two fairly substantial developments happening in both the West region and the Great Lakes region.
Villanova's (Very Narrow) Path to the NCAA XC Championships Goes Through the South & South Central Regions
Our Current Scenario
Our women's Kolas projections feel pretty chalk this year. There aren't too many areas where there could be a ton of dramatic changes. And yet, despite that, there does seem to be an opening for the Villanova women.
The Wildcats are projected to place 4th in the Mid-Atlantic region behind Georgetown, West Virginia and Penn State, three teams who are heavily favored to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships. However, in order to place 4th, Villanova will need to get past a respectable (but beatable) Princeton team.
If that happens, then you would think that the Wildcats would be rooting against Michigan State and/or Toledo. That, however, isn't necessarily true. In our Kolas scenario, it doesn't matter which of those teams finish in 3rd or 4th place.
So...which regions hold the catalyst for change?
What Could Change
The women's South Central region, which has historically been negligible in prior years of Kolas calculations, is one of two regions that will make or break Villanova's season on Friday.
With Sydney Thorvaldson back to racing, we feel good enough about Arkansas taking one of the two automatic qualifying spots in the South Central region. However, that second automatic qualifying spot could go to Texas, Tulane or LSU.
If Texas earns the second automatic national qualifying spot, then Villanova should feel encouraged, but not safe. However, if Tulane or LSU earn that spot, then the Wildcats are almost certainly out of the national qualifying conversation regardless of what happens elsewhere.
The final step in Villanova's path to NCAA XC Championships comes from the South region...and admittedly, it's a big ask.
Villanova needs to place 4th in the Mid-Atlantic region and Texas needs to take the other automatic qualifying spot in the South Central region. The final step for the Wildcats to advance is if a "push" scenario happens in the South region.
The South region consists of teams like Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, Florida State and Lipscomb. In fact, that is the order that we are predicting for the team standings tomorrow.
If that happens, then each of those teams would earn an at-large bid to the national meet without a "push" scenario. That would give other teams waiting to be selected a valuable Kolas point.
But if a "push" scenario happens, then one less Kolas point is given to other teams who are waiting to be selected. That effectively opens the door for Villanova to qualify for the NCAA XC Championships.
The only problem?
There are very few scenarios where a "push" happens in the South region.
Florida placing 5th and Tennessee placing 4th in the South region is one of two Kolas scenario we found where a team (in this case, Tennessee) gets "pushed" into the national meet.
The other scenario is if Lipscomb joins Alabama for the second auto spot while Tennessee finishes in 3rd place. And as long as Florida or Florida State finish behind the Vols, then a "push" scenario would happen, giving Villanova a spot to the national meet.
Major Takeaways
To make a very long story short, Villanova still has a chance to advance to the national meet. However, in order for that to happen, three separate things all need to happen...
The Wildcats need to place at least 4th in their region.
Texas needs to get an automatic qualifying spot in the South Central region.
A "push" scenario, likely coming from Tennessee, needs to happen in the South region.
Each of scenarios are fairly realistic possibilities. However, having all three of those steps come together on the same day seems unlikely.
In other words, the Wildcats are at the mercy of the Kolas calculator.
