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First Thoughts: Virginia Men & Notre Dame Women Headline ACC Steeplechase, Fay Outkicks Hicks in 10k
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- May 13, 2023
- 6 min read
Welcome back, friends! Yesterday, we reviewed a handful of preliminary and 10k results from the ACC and SEC Outdoor Championships which you can read here. Let's chat about a few additional results from those conference meets as well as a handful of other performances...
Nathan Mountain (8:32) & Derek Johnson (8:33) Give Virginia Men 1-2 Finish in Steeplechase
Ok, before we get into the actual analysis of this race, I gotta point out the predictions that long-time TSR contributor, Maura Beattie, made for this race...
Not bad! I mean, yes, I did tell Maura that the race would probably be faster, but she still did a heckuva job and is having the best season of predictions that she's ever had.
ANYWAYS, let's chat about the actual race.
Gosh, the Virginia men are just so good.
I think a lot of us at The Stride Report had a ton of respect for what both Nathan Mountain and Derek Johnson could possibly do this season after promising efforts during the winter months. Each of those men were primed to have big spring campaigns.
But running 8:32 and 8:33 in the steeplechase, respectively, is next-level stuff. And not only did they run absurdly fast, but they just took down a field that was LOADED. Two other men ran (comfortably) under 8:40 in this event, but this Cavalier duo still had no trouble dictating the front of this race.
Last year, the men's steeplechase was super predictable, at least in terms of All-American honors. But in 2023, I only see Duncan Hamilton, Kenneth Rooks, Matthew Wilkinson and Ed Trippas as locks for a top-eight finish on the national stage.
The next tier, however, features Victor Shitsama (Oklahoma State), Patrick Thygesen (Providence), Parker Stokes (Georgetown), Tom Seitzer (Notre Dame) and these two Virginia standouts.
And when looking at the entire NCAA landscape, I would be stunned if neither Mountain nor Johnson ended their seasons with All-American honors in the steeplechase. Sure, it would be understandable if one guy didn't do it, but both of them missing a top-eight finish on the national stage, at this point, seems unlikely.
Mountain is still a little young, but he's been racing like a veteran as of late and his upside is very exciting. Johnson, meanwhile, has been really underrated since the end of the fall months and hasn't done anything to hurt his resume in the slightest.
Now, with a 1-2 steeplechase finish in a deep conference, momentum should in favor of these two men going into the end of May and into mid-June.
As for Notre Dame's Tom Seitzer, this is a huge result. I said in our meet preview how, on paper, he was probably the most complete steeplechaser at this year's ACC Championships. He's experienced, consistent, great tactically and still improving, but had not run any faster than 8:41 over the barriers and water pits -- until Friday night.
Hanging tough with a Virginia duo that easily controlled the front of this race was very impressive. And as a result, the Fighting Irish star was able to record a steeplechase personal best of 8:34, forcing me to ask how many guys in the NCAA are as well-rounded as he is when it comes to this event?
There's certainly a few, but...I also don't think it's a lot, either.
Also, nice run for Kevin Robertson (Syracuse). He ran 8:37 in the steeplechase on Thursday night and rallied back with a great second-half effort. I like the consistency that he has been showing as of late.
Olivia Markezich (9:40), Katie Thronson (9:44) & Sophie Novak (9:48) Give Notre Dame 1-2-3 Steeplechase Sweep
The men's steeplechase wasn't the only race where Maura had excellent predictions! Here is what she predicted for the women's race which, while not perfect, was still really good...
When it comes to both Olivia Markezich and Katie Thronson, I can't say that I'm super surprised. Markezich has run 9:35 in the steeplechase before while Thronson just improved her PR slightly by two seconds.
And truthfully, this duo was favored to go 1-2.
Thronson will undoubtedly contest the steeplechase at the regional and national stages (assuming she qualifies for the latter). However, Markezich has an interesting decision to make.
The Notre Dame superstar can contest the 5000 meters, the steeplechase or both events throughout the rest of the postseason. And on paper, that's a doable double (it's been done multiple times before).
In my opinion, the steeplechase is the most likely option for Markezich. That event seems to be somewhat wide-open (at the time of publication) as far as title contenders are concerned. And given her recent boost in fitness over the last year, Markezich could absolutely win gold in this event on the national stage.
The only question is if she wants to double back in the 5000 meters.
At the NCAA Outdoor Championships, that would still leave her fresh for the steeplechase, but she would have an extra 5k race in her legs from the East Regional Championships two before then.
But as far as surprise performances go, it's similar story for Emily Cole (Duke) and Sasha Neglia (North Carolina). It is by no means shocking to see either of those talented ACC steeplechasers run in the 9:50s range and emerge as top-five finishers. They're both plenty accomplished and for the most part, fairly consistent.
But then we have come to Sophie Novak, the true breakout runner from this race.
Seeing Markezich and Thronson go 1-2 in this race on Friday night wasn't a shocker, although their teammate, Sophie Novak, wasn't favored to earn bronze. Yes, she did run 9:56 in the steeplechase at the Wake Forest Invitational recently, but that was already a big PR and there weren't a ton of marks on her resume to suggest that she would beat Cole or Neglia.
That, of course, is where we went wrong.
Novak has shown us that her momentum is at an all-time high. Running 9:48 in the steeplechase is huge and it gives her a ton of momentum as we head into the regional meets. Not only that, but the women's steeplechase in the East region, at least as I'm writing this, seems fairly wide-open after the first four names or so.
Simply put, Novak may be peaking at the perfect time to qualify for the national meet.
Brian Fay Outkicks Charles Hicks to Win PAC-12 Title Over 10,000 Meters
Brian Fay's stock is beginning to rise fairly rapidly. In a race that came down to a final-lap sprint, it was Fay bolting to the lead with 400 meters to go and fending off Charles Hicks by less than a second for the 10k title at the PAC-12 Championships.
This is now the second time this season where Fay has thrown down a monster kick to give himself a major win over a strong field. He first did that at the Bryan Clay Invite and now has a win over Hicks who some would say is in contention to win NCAA gold in this event.
But it's time to start questioning that, in a race that is slow/tactical enough, could this Washington star finally win a national title?
We know that when he's firing on all cylinders that this Husky ace can kick with anyone in the country. However, in the spring of 2023, Fay has shown a far greater understanding of tactics in very nuanced ways. His in-race execution is far better than it was during the winter months and the names that he has defeated on a consistent basis this season have forced us to ask if he should be in the conversation for gold in Austin, Texas.
With Drew Bosley recently seen on crutches via an Instagram post, there might be one less guy who could be in the conversation to win an NCAA title this spring over the 5k or the 10k distances.
Of course, we've said similar things about Fay before and it hasn't always worked out...
As for Hicks, I'm not going to look too heavily into this result. I still think he can be in contention to win the 10k national title, especially if Bosley isn't going to be racing this season (which, again, is just speculation at this point and not confirmed).
Admittedly, I don't totally love that Fay simply overtook this Stanford megastar from 400 meters out. I would have thought that a 400-meter kick would have benefitted Hicks a bit more rather than a 100-meter kick.
That, of course, is why Fay is winning PAC-12 titles and I'm sitting behind a computer screen.
Quick Hits
Nice win for Emily Venters (Utah) over 10,000 meters to win the PAC-12 title in a time of 32:32. That was far from surprising, but it was still nice consistency for this Utah star.
It was Chandler Gibbens (Kansas), not Isai Rodriguez (Oklahoma State), who won the BIG 12 title over 10,000 meters last night. That's really exciting validation for a guy who ran 13:28 (5k) out of nowhere earlier this season.
Eliud Kipsang (Alabama), despite being an All-American contender in the 1500 meters this spring, didn't make it out of prelims at the SEC Championships yesterday. And after watching the replay, it looked like he just ran out of gas. It's becoming harder and harder to rely on this metric mile superstar in the postseason, but his raw talent will almost always keep him in the national conversation.
What a day for the Virginia Tech men who had rookie Nick Plant and graduate student Ben Nagel run a pair of 1:47 marks in the 800 meter prelims at the ACC Championships. Both of those men made the finals which will feature a handful of elite-caliber middle distance stars.
