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First Thoughts: Oklahoma State Men Trounce New Mexico, Stanford Dominates at Gans Creek Classic & Questions Arise About Arkansas
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Sep 29, 2024
- 16 min read
Believe it or not, there were other nationally competitive meets this past weekend that weren't the Nuttycombe Invitational. Between the Gans Creek Classic, the Chile Pepper XC Festival and the Cowboy Jamboree, the rest of the NCAA left us with plenty of results to analyze.
Admittedly, we won't be diving quite as deep into some of these results as we did for the Nuttycombe Invitational. Even so, there were numerous headlines that we felt our readers should know about. Let's dive into it all, shall we?
Cowboy Jamboree Analysis (Men)
1. Oklahoma State Cowboys (19 points)
If there were any doubts about whether or not the Oklahoma State men were still the national title favorites, then those concerns were largely silenced this past weekend. The Cowboys took to their home course on Saturday where they fielded most of their top men (but not all) against a mostly-stacked New Mexico team and a youth-laden Oregon squad.
Of course, the final results weren't even close.
Oklahoma State absolutely destroyed their competition with Brian Musau posting a course record (22:56 for 8k) to earn a slight upset victory over 10k superstar Habtom Samuel of New Mexico (2nd).
Laban Kipkemboi (3rd), Denis Kipngetich (4th), Victor Shitsama (5th) and Ryan Schoppe (6th) packed together to nearly sweep a Lobo squad that we expect to contend for the podium later this fall.
The biggest revelation from those results is that Kipkemboi and Schoppe look like All-American runners. We knew the former was talented, but he had raced sparingly up until now. The latter, meanwhile, is a sub-7:40 (3k) runner and had been strong on the grass before, but this was certainly one of his better cross country efforts.
It is admittedly hard to analyze a meet from late September which featured a small handful of competitive teams. But if you look at the men who New Mexico fielded, you could argue that they ran all of their top guys. Lukas Kiprop also competed, but he recorded a DNF result.
We're still trying to figure out how strong the Lobos are, but if they are anywhere close to the top-10 threat that we think they are, then Oklahoma State's latest win is scary-good.
2. New Mexico Lobos (45 points)
I'll admit, I was a bit underwhelmed by New Mexico on Saturday.
The Lobos ran all of their top men this past weekend, although most of them fell short of expectations. Habtom Samuel was projected to be the individual winner, but a loss to Brian Musau, the same man who narrowly beat him in a 5k battle at the Bryan Clay Invite earlier this year, pushed him back to a runner-up finish.
Even so, Samuel mostly did his job as a star-caliber ace.
Behind him, Vincent Chirchir (9th), Collins Kiprotich (11th), Evans Kiplagat (13th) and Rikus Van Niekerk (15th) were the next four Lobo scorers to cross the line while Iker Sanchez Lopez (16th) offered respectable scoring insurance. Lukas Kiprop, a projected scorer for New Mexico, recorded a DNF result.
On one hand, we shouldn't penalize New Mexico too much for losing to what could be one of the single-greatest cross country teams ever assembled. On the other hand, the Cowboys didn't field even Fouad Messaoudi while other key names such as Adisu Guadia (10th) and Jonas Price (12th) were listed as unattached runners.
If the Lobos want to be a podium squad in 2024, then they needed one or two others to break up that Oklahoma State pack. Even so, it is far too early in the season to make any major proclamations about what the New Mexico men can or cannot be.
3. Oregon Ducks (89 points)
For the most part, this was a fairly solid outing for an Oregon team that didn't field many of their top veteran transfers. Despite not having Devin Hart, Evan Bishop or Evan Dorenkamp, the Ducks held their own for a 3rd place finish, taking down a very respectable Texas team that was listed at TSR #24 in our preseason rankings.
Simeon Birnbaum (14th) looked very strong in his first race back since March while Benjamin Balazs (17th) offered very nice scoring value as well. Jeffery Rogers (21st) was a pleasant surprise while Josh Schumacher (23rd) and Tayson Echohawk (24th) had respectable outings.
If you're the Oregon men, then you have to feel pretty good about this past weekend. They defeated a respectable Texas team (that truthfully didn't have all of their best men) which likely yielded them a Kolas point -- and they did that without three of their top-four runners.
This past weekend was likely just a test to see what the supporting cast of the Ducks' lineup would look like this fall. And although there weren't any major surprises, it did feel like their coring reinforcements were fairly solid.
4. Texas Longhorns (116 points)
Saturday wasn't exactly the most encouraging team effort for the Texas men, although they didn't necessarily run poorly, either.
Isaac Alonzo (7th) continues to be a sneaky-good low-stick for the Longhorns as he took down multiple All-American-caliber men. The challenge, however, is that the scoring contingent of Emmanuel Sgouros (27th), EJ Rush (29th), Hudson Heikkinen (31st) and Jack Boyd (35th) were too far back to stay competitive with an Oregon team that was simply better.
Sgouros will likely be better in the future and you could maybe argue the same thing about Rush. It should also be noted that low-stick ace Rodger Rivera and key support scorer Nathanael Berhane did not run. If both of those men had run on Saturday and were in top form, then Texas likely gives Oregon a run for their money.
However, Rivera already ran once this season, placing 12th in a highly unexciting rust-buster. If he doesn't race for the rest of this fall, then Texas will have effectively lost three low-sticks from their 2023 squad.
5. Incarnate Word Cardinals (151 points)
I know that the Incarnate Word men weren't really factors in the team race this past weekend, but being 35 points off of a typically-strong Texas squad was a great result for them.
Griffin Neal (22nd) and Kamron Loera (28th) had strong efforts while the rest of their scoring group -- Christopher Daniels (33rd), Eric Pineda (45th) and James Butler (50th) -- did enough to earn a respectable 5th place effort.
I'm not saying that the Cardinals are going to qualify for the national meet, but this was a fairly solid effort that was done with regionally-recruited talent. I thought they deserved a nod of respect after Saturday.
Not Mentioned Notable Individuals
Abraham Chelangam (Oral Roberts) is a name that I have seen pop up every now and then. He's a quietly great runner who placed 8th in a top-heavy field on Saturday. He's admittedly a tough runner to analyze when you look at his TFRRS resume, but it seems fairly clear that he has a ton of natural talent.
Cowboy Jamboree Analysis (Women)
1. New Mexico Lobos (34 points)
If I'm Coach Darren Gauson, I'm very happy with how the New Mexico women fared on Saturday.
At the Cowboy Jamboree, we got to see our TSR #11 squad toe the line against another nationally ranked group in Oklahoma State (TSR #21). There, the Lobos emerged victorious with six points despite not having one of their top All-American scorers.
Pamela Kosgei unsurprisingly took home the individual title in her NCAA debut while D3 graduate transfer Natalie Bitetti (4th) and Klara Dess (6th) had performances that were slightly better than expected. Mercy Kirarei (8th) is someone who we thought could potentially be an All-American this fall. She didn't appear to be at that level on Saturday, although she still held her own.
Admittedly, the final Lobo scorer faded to 17th place while three additional New Mexico women went 20-21-22 in the overall results.
If New Mexico brings back All-American low-stick Nicola Jansen later this fall, then they will likely have a complete top-five that features tons of firepower and minimal gaps. Yes, the depth on this team will need to improve in the meantime, but the core of this team has the potential to crack our top-10 later this fall.
2. Oklahoma State Cowgirls (40 points)
For a team that didn't have superstar ace Billah Jepkirui, the Oklahoma State women should be thrilled for finishing just six points back of a very strong New Mexico team (that, admittedly, didn't have All-American Nicola Jansen).
The Cowgirls were led by Victoria Lagat (3rd) who looks like she could be a new low-stick for this team. Meanwhile, veteran Sivan Auerbach (7th) admirably held her own while Josphine Mwaura (10th) had a quietly great race. Colleen Stegmann (12th) and Jinane Mahi (13th) followed closely behind while three other Oklahoma State runners cracked the top-20.
The good news for Coach Dave Smith is that his team looks slightly better than I expected them to be without Jepkirui. The bad news, however, is that Jepkirui didn't race, giving legs to a preseason rumor that she might not run this fall.
3. Lamar Cardinals (76 points)
Sure, Lamar wasn't all that close to being competitive with New Mexico or Oklahoma State, but they did have a few very respectable individual performances.
Nia Clatworthy secured runner-up honors in what felt like a true breakout performance. That huge low-stick result was complemented by Cara Inch (14th) who also had somewhat of a breakout race herself. With three other women in the top-40, the Cardinals should be very proud of how they ended their weekend.
Notable Individual Performances (not already mentioned)
Watch out for Odessa rookie Elizabeth Ilanda. She just finished 5th place overall on Saturday after securing runner-up honors at the Texas Tech Open earlier this season. The freshman has defeated what will likely be multiple All-Americans this fall. And given that she's racing at the JUCO level right now, you can expect to see her joining a top D1 program in the future.
Chile Pepper XC Festival Analysis (Men)
1. Arkansas Razorbacks (29 points)
There truthfully isn't much to discuss here. The Arkansas men only ran about half of their top projected lineup on Saturday and that still gave them a fairly comfortable win.
Kirami Yego (1st) looked great while Timothy Chesondin (3rd) and Brian Masai (6th) looked roughly as good as expected them to. Elias Schreml (9th) and Reuben Reina (10th) held their own as they battled for what will likely be the final spot in the Razorbacks' top-seven this fall.
Arkansas didn't field Patrick Kiprop, Ben Shearer or Yaseen Abdalla this past weekend. And frankly, they didn't need to as they didn't face any competition that was going to truly threaten them. This was still a good team result, but it didn't tell us anything new about the Razorbacks.
2. Western Colorado Mountaineers (127 points)
Strong running for the Western Colorado men this past weekend as they upset a D2 podium favorite in East Central by a somewhat comfortable margin. Tyler Nord (11th) seems to be right on par with expectations. Oliver Diaz (21st) was better than expected, Kyle Partin (24th) had a decent outing and Esteban Deniz (29th) seems to be translating some of his success from the track to the grass.
The Mountaineers' fifth scorer dropped to 43rd place, opening up a less-than-ideal gap. However, we didn't see John Houdeshell compete this past weekend. If he returns in top form, then it wouldn't surprise us if this squad makes the podium come November.
3. East Central Tigers (159 points)
Last year, the East Central men were known for their overwhelming firepower. That reputation, however, was not at all apparent during Saturday's race.
With the possible exception of Amos Pkiach (16th), you could argue that none of the Tigers matched expectations at the Chile Pepper XC Festival. Paul Korir (26th), Brian Mitei (27th), Aspel Kiprob (38th), Oliver Kiptoo (54th) and Peter Kipkemboi (60th) all have All-American-caliber talent, but you wouldn't have known that by looking at their latest results.
It's hard for me to justify hitting the panic button on any team in late September, but the Tigers didn't look nearly as potent as they had been in the past.
4. CSU-Pueblo ThunderWolves (178 points)
The top-three men for CSU-Pueblo looked fairly strong as Reece Sharman-Newell (20th) and Matisse Virey (22nd) offered a nice injection of scoring into the ThunderWolves' lineup. Meanwhile, Kaleb Beloy (32nd) gave his team solid value at their third scoring spot.
Unfortunately, CSU-Pueblo saw a drop-off after Beloy crossed the line as the next two scorers for this team team placed 52nd place and 56th place.
For a squad that was residing just on the edge of our preseason top-10 team rankings, this result is roughly in line with our expectations. They could still be a top-10 squad (among D2 schools) in the future, but they'll need to clean up the backend portion of their lineup in order for that to happen.
5. Alabama-Huntsville Chargers (188 points)
Sam Wilhelm (5th) is ridiculously talented and offered his Alabama-Huntsville team a true standout low-stick to lean on this past weekend. Noah George (25th) also had a surprisingly good outing as well.
The Chargers didn't have anyone else finish inside of the top-40, but Nate Pohlsander (44th) and Nathan Knox (45th) at least offered some stability. If the UAH can cut down on their (admittedly large) backend gap to their fifth runner who placed 74th, then this group will be far more dangerous than some people initially expected them to be.
Notable Individual Performances (not already mentioned)
Elkana Kipruto (Stephen F. Austin) had a fantastic run, placing 2nd overall in his NCAA debut. The rookie from Kenya doesn't have much for us to analyze, but if we found the correct World Athletics profile, then he has run 14:18 (5k) before this season. That's a nice mark, but finishing runner-up against a small handful of top NCAA individuals is a better-than-expected result.
Chile Pepper XC Festival Analysis (Women)
1. Texas Longhorns (42 points)
Wow, this was a quietly great race from the Texas women!
Olivia Howell (3rd) looks like she's back in top form (or at least close to it) while Eva Jess (5th) beautifully translated her 10k fitness to the grass. Elizabeth Pickett (6th) had a surprisingly great run, Elizabeth Stockman (12th) held her own and Sydni Wilkins (16th) showed promise as a rookie.
Once again, Coach Sarah Smith (née Haveman) has been able to turn around the direction of a women's cross country program. After turning Illinois into a nationally competitive group, the Longhorns from Austin, Texas may be the next team to follow suit.
Defeating a nationally ranked team like Arkansas is a big deal and it positions Texas to once again snag a top-two spot in the South Central region (which will put them back on the national stage).
2. LSU Tigers (75 points)
You really have to appreciate how strong the LSU women were. This is a group mostly known for their sprints and middle distances, so to defeat a long distance power like Arkansas is pretty exciting for the Tigers.
Lorena Rangel Batres (7th) and Michaela Rose (8th) were great lead talents while Ella Chesnut (11th) and Callie Hardy (14th) weren't too far behind. The issue, however, is that their fifth scorer faded all the way back to 37th place.
If the LSU women can close the gap enough between their final scoring spot and the rest of their top-four, then they won't totally be out of the conversation to qualify for this year's national meet via an automatic birth. That, however, would require one major hole in their lineup being filled.
3. Arkansas Razorbacks (88 points)
Alright, let's try to break this down.
The Arkansas women came into this season listed at TSR #16 in our preseason rankings. We recognized that they had an outstanding top-three, but we also had major questions about their depth.
For the most part, that analysis was spot-on. At the Chile Pepper XC Festival this past weekend, the duo of Mia Cochran and Paityn Noe went 1-2, comfortably defeating the rest of the field. However, after that, the Razorbacks had massive scoring gaps that plagued their lineup.
We admittedly thought that Mackenzie Rogers (19th) had the potential to be a top-10 name in this field while Olivia Pielemeier (25th) was a passable fourth scoring option. However, with the team's final scorer settling for 47th place, the Razorbacks weren't able to keep pace with Texas and LSU.
Now, in Arkansas' defense, they didn't have Sydney Thorvaldson, a top-10 cross country runner, nationally. However, even if Arkansas had gone 1-2-3 in the final results, then they still would have lost to Texas!
We knew that depth was going to be a major issue for the Razorbacks this fall. However, we didn't expect that aspect to hold this much weight in a meet that is usually inconsequential for the women of Fayetteville.
4. CSU-Pueblo (118 points)
I thought this was a really solid race for the women of CSU-Pueblo! They should be very proud of this result.
Helen Braybrook (10th) delivered an excellent low-stick result that was plenty valuable, but the biggest surprise was seeing Leah Keisler (18th) secure a huge top-20 finish of her own. That unexpected boost in scoring was followed up by Margot Thomas-Gatel (24th) who put together a strong effort as well. Jadyn Herron (34th) and Camille Renou (36th) closed out the ThunderWolves' top-five somewhat quickly.
The rise of Keisler as a lead scoring talent is huge for a CSU-Pueblo team that only has nine women on their cross country roster this fall. The firepower of this group is better than expected and they closed out their top-five faster than we thought they would.
Across the board, this was an excellent showing for Coach Matt Morris' squad.
5. Rice Owls (127 points)
Rice didn't necessarily have a ton of firepower, but they did boast a somewhat complete top-five that had minimal gaps.
Oliwia Kopec, Daphne Meyer, Amelie Attenborough, Taigen Hunter-Galvan and Alex Gobran went 15-23-28-31-32, respectively, in the overall results. Those top-two women are both listed as freshmen while their latter name is a sophomore. That's a nice young core of scorers for the Owls who, in the future, could be sneaky-good within the South Central region.
6. Western Colorado Mountaineers (197 points)
We'll admit, this was a not-so-great showing for the Western Colorado women.
Leah Taylor (4th) was fantastic and delivered a big-time low-stick result. You could also argue that Lauren Wilson (17th) was better than expected, offering great scoring value as well. However, 2023 All-American Peyton Weiss faded to outside of the top-60 while the team's final two scorers placed 73rd and 83rd.
Yes, it's true, this team didn't have Allison Beasley, someone who we believe is a contender for the individual D2 national title this fall. However, even if Beasley had won the race, then the Mountaineers still wouldn't have cracked the top-five.
This team will undoubtedly be better in the future, but this was a tough way to truly kick-off the competitive portion of their 2024 fall campaign.
Notable Individual Performances (not already mentioned)
Strong run from Stephen F. Austin's Valentine Jemutai, the 9th place finisher in this race. She's still new to the NCAA, but considering that she's only a freshman, that was a fairly encouraging result.
Gans Creek Classic Analysis (Men)
1. Stanford Cardinal (31 points)
Truthfully, this result didn't really tell us anything new about how Stanford stacks up to the rest of the country. The 2nd place team (Tennessee) and 3rd place team (Auburn) each scored just over 160 points.
We did, however, see some encouraging developments for the Cardinal men.
Although this field wasn't competitive enough to determine if Cole Sprout is back in All-American form, his 3rd place finish did signal that he's at a somewhat competitive level right now. If that's actually the case, then the performances that we saw Leo Young (2nd) and Lex Young (5th) look even better.
Thomas Boyden (8th) may not be at the peak level of fitness that we've seen from him previously, but he looked much better than he did at any other point this year.
Stanford's trio of rookies -- Paul Bergeron (13th), Patrick Koon (17th) and James Dargan (18th) -- offered strong backend value. Sure, Stanford will need to improve that portion of their lineup going forward, but having three high-upside talents all of a similar talent level does minimize some of the risk that comes with their youth.
Notable Individual Performances (not already mentioned)
Kentucky's Edward Bird just had a huge breakout race, securing the overall win against a slew of talented Stanford men (as well as a few others). Sure, Bird was a respectable distance runner prior to this fall, but there was nothing on his resume which suggested that he would secure a victory of this magnitude.
Auburn's Ryan Kinnane (4th) was unsurprisingly great yet again while OIe Miss' Toby Gillen (6th) put together a respectable effort. Even so, we were expecting a bit more out of the 5k All-American.
How about Maine's Luke Marsanskis (7th) and Illinois State's Mathis Chavand (9th)? Those guys came into this season with sneaky-good credentials, but top-10 finishes against this field bolstered their resumes a good bit.
Gans Creek Classic Analysis (Women)
1. Stanford Cardinal (44 points)
It's easy to get carried away by seeing the results of one cross country race in late September. However, Zofia Dudek's runner-up result was huge. If she has truly returned to her low-stick level of fitness, then the Cardinal are going to be far more dangerous than some people realize.
Sophia Kennedy (3rd) mostly validated the preseason hype that we gave her, but it was Julia Flynn (7th) who was truly the biggest and best surprise that Stanford had this past weekend. Seeing Flynn evolve into a more-than-capable scorer will be huge with she's paired with Riley Stewart who placed 10th on Saturday.
Admittedly, there was a fairly large gap that opened up after those women as Audrey Dadamio closed out the scoring in 22nd place. That backend gap will need to be addressed moving forward, but considering that they easily took down a very strong Tennessee team, it's hard to offer too many critiques on the Stanford women right now.
2. Tennessee Volunteers (92 points)
Truthfully, we were hoping to see a bit more from the Tennessee women this past weekend. The Lady Vols were listed one spot higher than Stanford in our preseason team rankings, but they didn't come close to truly threatening the Cardinal with a mostly-stacked lineup.
Ashley Jones (5th) was great as expected while Rachel Sutliff (9th) also delivered on expectations. Jillian Candelino (15th) had a fine outing, but Tennessee's team score ultimately ran away from them as their two scorers placed 27th and 35th.
The Tennessee women stunned the country last fall by placing 6th at the NCAA XC Championships. That, however, was a clear outlier compared to the rest of the performances that we had seen from them throughout 2023.
Make no mistake, the Volunteers are still a national-caliber team and their scoring group has proven that they can be far better. However, as we saw this past weekend, the loss of Jessie Secor leaves the Tennessee women with a slimmer margin for error this fall.
3. Ole Miss Rebels (120 points)
All things considered, this was a really nice result for the Ole Miss women. They lost a ton of scoring potency from their 2023 squad, but have seemingly salvaged a good enough lineup to remain competitive in 2024.
Loral Winn (4th) had another one of the instances where she suddenly looked like a low-stick star. Meanwhile, Sophie Baumann (18th) had a sneaky-good race of her own. Watch out for her if she's able to build some momentum off of her latest result.
Sarah Schiffman (26th) and Beth Arentz (32nd) weren't necessarily jaw-dropping, but they were still fairly solid. The team's final scorer placed 43rd overall.
The Rebels likely aren't going to be as good this fall as they were last year. That would require their supporting cast behind Winn being much stronger. Even so, Ole Miss likely scored a Kolas point by defeating an Olemomoi-less Florida squad. That could turn out to be a crucial development once we reach November.
4. Florida Gators (132 points)
Despite dropping to 4th place, I actually thought the Florida women had the best race of the meet relative to expectations.
Bethan Morley (6th) was surprisingly great, giving her team a potential low-stick that they may not have known that they had. That injection of scoring potency was later complemented by the emergence of Tia Wilson (11th), Caroline Wells (12th) and freshman Regan Gilmore (13th).
The Gators had an awesome top-four that was much stronger than we expected them to be without their superstar ace, Hilda Olemomoi. In fact, had the Florida women fielded Olemomoi on Saturday, then the Gators would have cut off a MASSIVE amount of points.
How many points, you ask?
Well, the Gators' fifth scorer took 98th place overall and scored 90 points. If Olemomoi had secured the individual title (which she would have been heavily favored to do), then Florida's new top-five finishes would have read 1-7-12-13-14, totaling 47 points.
And with Olemomoi theoretically taking gold, then each of Stanford's scorers would have been pushed back one spot as well. That, in turn, would have led to them scoring 49 points and settling for 2nd place.
Simply put, Florida is going to be WAY better this fall than some of us realized as long as Olemomoi comes back in tip-top shape (and we think she will). This was a monumental effort from the Gators and it may not be too much of a stretch to suggest that they can be a top-10 team later this fall.
Notable Individual Performances (not already mentioned)
There were a lot of expectations for Auburn's newest rookie Kenyan, Brenda Jepchirchir. Thankfully for her and the Tigers, she delivered a big-time win on Saturday. That was a strong win and it tells us that she's a top-50 talent for our individual rankings.
Also, nice run by Baylor's Ruth Kimeli (8th). We didn't expect her to be a top-10 finisher in this kind of field after placing 15th at the Texas A&M Invite, but she has seemingly made a quick (and effective) adjustment to NCAA competition.
