2024 Nuttycombe First Thoughts (Part Two): Georgetown Shows Promise, Villanova Rallies Behind Lethal 1-2 Punch

What? You thought we were done with our Nuttycombe Invitational analysis?

Nope! Not just yet.

Late last night, we published Part One of our "First Thoughts" article highlighting all of the top-half team results that we saw at the Nuttycombe Invitational. Now, for Part Two, we're going over the latter-half of those same results.

Men's Analysis

13. Georgetown Hoyas (342 points)

The Georgetown men added a handful of talented graduate transfers from the Division Two and Division Three levels this past offseason. One of those newcomers was 3:57 miler James Dunne who was a strong talent for Adams State, but hardly a major factor during the D2 cross country season.

Of course, you wouldn't have known that after seeing him place 23rd at the Nuttycombe Invite! That injection of scoring potency was a surprisingly great development for a Georgetown team that very much needed the firepower.

Of course, Dunne wasn't the only reason why this team found success on Friday. Lucas Guerra (35th) had the breakthrough race that we had been waiting for and Luke Ondracek (41st) was a pleasant surprise as the Hoyas' third scorer.

Admittedly, the gap after those three men was...well, massive.

No other Hoya cracked the top-115 at the Nuttycombe Invite. Even so, that shouldn't really matter for a Georgetown team that wasn't even ranked coming into this season. Their upfront scoring presence is far better than we expected it to be and as long as that leading trio continues to race like that, then the Hoyas will find themselves comfortably residing inside of our top-25 team rankings this fall.

14. Portland Pilots (349 points)

Seeing Matt Strangio (11th) finally deliver on his upside as a star low-stick was great to see. He is one of the most talented men in the NCAA who has yet to earn an All-American honor. Thankfully, his low-stick performance suggests that he could change his fortunes this November.

Jona Bodirsky (40th) offered great scoring value at the second spot in this lineup while Kgadi Monyebodi (56th) gave his team a somewhat balanced top-three. However, just like Georgetown, the Pilots saw a chasm-like gap open up after those three men as no other Portland runner cracked the top-115.

I struggle to believe that a team like Portland doesn't have enough depth to fill the truthfully large hole in their lineup. We should note that 8:22 steeplechaser Estanis Ruiz was a DNF in this race. In theory, he is likely the missing piece who could have catapulted this squad into the top-10.

15. Florida State Seminoles (356 points)

This was a very solid outing for the Florida State men! After losing low-sticks David Mullarkey and Abdirizak Ibrahim, as well as their recently retired head coach, I struggled to figure out how this squad was going to have enough scoring to be competitive in this field.

Thankfully for the 'Noles, Kidus Misgina (16th) came through in a major way to secure a true low-stick result. We knew that Misgina was talented, but we did not have him cracking the top-20 portion of this race.

Matthew Neill (37th) was better than expected while Zach Leachman (86th) had a sneaky-solid effort of his own. Joe Farley (99th) gave the Seminoles four men in the top-100 with Coleman Cronk (118th) doing enough to keep his team in contention for a top-15 result.

This squad isn't perfect. We still need to see many of their men replicate those performances on a consistent basis. We also need to see how FSU will address the admittedly large gap in the middle of their lineup. Even so, the backend portion of this scoring contingent was somewhat stable and Misgina being a low-stick gives this team a respectable core to build around.

16. Air Force Falcons (372 points)

I'm honestly not too sure how to interpret this result for the Air Force men. Did they beat expectations on Friday? Did they falter? It's hard to know.

On paper, Air Force fared pretty well after losing a ton of scoring from last year's squad. Of course, the same thing happened to last year's team and they still emerged as one of the better cross country lineups in the NCAA.

Max Sannes (14th) was someone who was I was high on, but I didn't expect him to look like a top-50 runner on Friday. That was a huge low-stick result that the Falcons most definitely needed. It's a similar story for Zach Ayers (32nd) who had a big-time breakout performance in his own right. Tanner Lindahl (48th) also had a massive breakout race after not really being a factor in any of his races earlier in his career.

That top-three was excellent. The challenge, however, is that Air Force didn't have another runner cross the line until 137th place and 147th place. And to be blunt, those aren't exactly the most encouraging results in a field of 179 finishers. It should, however, be noted that Ben Scheller was DNF, leaving the Falcons with one less lineup option.

At the end of the day, Air Force should be proud that their upfront scoring beat expectations. They will, however, put further emphasis on their depth and reinforcements.

17. Gonzaga Bulldogs (389 points)

Despite the end result of 17th place, I don't really view this as a poor performance for the Gonzaga men. The Bulldogs put all five of their scorers in the top-100 of the results. No other program in the latter-half of the team standings is able to say that.

Bryce Cerkowniak (54th) and Drew Kolodge (69th) both had very respectable outings, offering solid scoring value and great stability. The issue, however, is that Wil Smith (79th) had an "off" day. He was someone who I sincerely believed could have been a top-10 finisher. Cooper Laird (93rd) and Logan Law (97th) had very respectable outings of their own.

If Smith had finished in 20th place, then Gonzaga finishes in 13th place. Sure, that isn't a massive difference, but it would have been a result that more closely matches the Bulldogs' preseason TSR #25 ranking.

With five guys in the top-100 and someone who we know is a true low-stick, we wouldn't worry too much about this result. Given how compact and efficient their scoring group was, we feel like the men of Spokane will fare better at their next outing.

18. Montana State Bobcats (397 points)

For the most part, Montana State had a solid race, although the scoring value of their lineup (relative to expectations) began to deteriorate as each runner crossed the line.

Rob McManus (38th) delivered on the cross country potential that we knew he held while Ben Perrin (46th) also offered decent scoring despite having a slight "off" day. Sophomore Sam Ells (68th) had a quietly strong showing as well.

The Bobcats' held their own through four runner as D3 graduate transfer Will Kelly (104th) had a fine effort, but the team's final scorer ultimately faded to 145th place.

You may be looking at this lineup and thinking, "How on Earth does this team make any substantial improvements from here?" Well, it's important to note that two accomplished steeplechase standouts, Owen Smith and Levi Taylor, didn't run on Friday. Had they toed the line, then Montana State's backend scoring would have been much better.

I wouldn't count out this team from being a national qualifying squad in 2024. There's a chance that they gained at least one Kolas point this past weekend and they'll likely be better in the future.

19. Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (412 points)

Was this a good result for Tulsa? No, not really. But does this result look a lot better when you realize that they didn't have their low-stick ace, Shay McEvoy? Yes, it most certainly does.

Between Chris McLeod, Ben Brown, Charlie Krasnoff and James Knockton, there wasn't anyone on this team who truly stood out. However, those four men went 70-74-82-85, respectively, in the overall results. That is tremendous stability for a team that is just one piece away from truly contending for a national qualifying spot. Luke Birdseye (101st) closed out the scoring fairly quickly.

If McEvoy returns to action this fall and runs up to his full potential, then you're looking at Tulsa cutting anywhere from 60 to 80 points off of their team score (in this kind of field). In that scenario, the Golden Hurricanes finish closer to the middle portion of the team standings and bolster their chances of qualifying for the national meet by a good bit.

20. Iona Gaels (419 points)

Seeing Matt Rankin (25th) emerge as a low-stick for Iona was an excellent development for a team that lost two lead scorers in Damien Dilcher and Joshua DeSouza. Oliver Boltz (77th) had a sneaky-good outing and Lachlan Wellington (86th) provided veteran stability.

Of course, after losing so many key names from last year's squad, the Gaels struggled to fill out the rest of their lineup on Friday. Their final two scorers placed 113th and 121st.

This team is far from perfect, but there is still an avenue for them to find success this fall. They have a low-stick talent in Rankin and the two men after him were respectable. Sure, their latter two scorers faded, but they weren't that much worse than the backend contributors for other teams in the latter-half of these results.

The Gaels are still underdogs to qualify for the national meet, but they aren't totally out of the conversation just yet.

21. Furman Paladins (455 points)

There's no way to dance around the fact that the Furman men simply did not run well at the Nuttycombe Invite. Yes, they did have Carson Williams (39th) emerge with a strong lead scoring effort, but the support behind him was a bit underwhelming.

Evan Guzman (80th) had a decent race while rookies Christopher Knight (100th) and Colin Eckerman (106th) didn't let the backend scoring get away from the Paladins. Of course, there is only so much that Furman could do without their star low-stick, Dylan Schubert.

The best version of Schubert could have realistically cut-off about 120 points from the Paladins' final score. And in that scenario, they finish around the middle portion of the team results.

Don't forget that this team struggled early-on during the 2023 cross country season and then thrived at last year's Nuttycombe Invite (which was held in October) with a top-10 result. As long as Schubert returns to this lineup in top form, then I could see the same thing happening in 2024.

22. Illinois Fighting Illini' (562 points)

Solid race for Alex Partlow (63rd), but Illinois has a lot of work to do. Partlow was their only runner to finish in the top-100 and the Fighting Illini' only had three men crack the top-140. I do think certain names can be a bit better, but this final result isn't too stunning.

23. Texas A&M Aggies (616 points)

While I didn't expect Texas A&M to be a top-half team, I did think that the Aggies had enough talent to crack the top-20 in this field.

Relative to expectations, I thought both Zack Munger (88th) and Jack Johnston (96th) had really solid races. However, the Aggies didn't field low-stick standout Victor Kibiego and Gilbert Rono wasn't able to effectively translate his middle distance prowess to the grass. Jonathan Chung, an individual cross country national qualifier in 2022, also struggled greatly.

Texas A&M is definitely better than what they showed on Friday. Even so, there is a lot to fix in this lineup and expecting this team to qualify for the national meet would be a major stretch.

24. Providence Friars (654 points)

Welp...that was bad.

Providence is definitely better than what they showed us on Friday. Michael Morgan (62nd) had a decent day, but Liam Back struggled and Abdel Laadjel didn't run. Those latter two men ran alongside Morgan throughout last fall. If they had done that on Friday, then we're talking about the Friars in a very different tone.

Of course, even if they had run up to expectations, there were still a number of fairly large gaps at the latter-half of this lineup that would have held this team back in the final standings.

Women's Analysis

13. Villanova Wildcats (323 points)

Gosh, there is a lot to unpack with this result.

Seeing Sadie Sigfstead secure the individual national title was thrilling. We knew she was talented and capable of being an All-American, but snagging that win felt like a statement to the rest of the country. However, the bigger surprise was seeing Nicole Vanasse, the graduate transfer from Columbia, secure a huge 11th place finish! Vanasse had been a very respectable cross country runner in prior seasons, but her success was mainly reserved for the track. To see her secure an upper-echelon low-stick finish in a field as loaded at the Nuttycombe Invite was a pleasant surprise.

Emily Robinson (73rd) was a bit further back, but she still acted a nice bridge piece between the two halves of the Wildcats' scoring group. That was important as the team's final scorers placed 111th and 131st overall.

In case it wasn't already obvious, the Villanova women will live and die by the success of their top-two women. Sigfstead and Vanasse are fantastic low-sticks, but the scarce depth behind them limits how much better this team can be in the future. Thankfully, there is still some upside in this team if Emma McGill -- a top-five finisher at the BIG East XC Championships and the Mid-Atlantic regional meet -- returns to this lineup.

If McGill returns to the Wildcats' top-seven later this fall at (or near) top form, then this is a Villanova team that can emerge as a top-20 squad in the NCAA this season.

14. Boston College Golden Eagles (349 points)

This was roughly what we expected to see from Boston College. The loss of low-stick Emma Tavella was certainly going to limit this team in a field like the Nuttycombe Invite, but the Golden Eagles still had a very respectable scoring group.

Roshni Singh (52nd) and Aoife Dunne (53rd) had very solid performances while Abby Lewis (64th) and Abby Loveys (72nd) kept the team scoring in check.

Yes, it's true, their final scorer faded to 109th place, but it's important to recognize that Molly Fitzpatrick won the "B" race at the Nuttycombe Invite. Her time of 21:15 would have put her around 77th place, cutting off a sizable chunk of points from BC's final team score.

It feels like Boston College is essentially picking up where they left off. This is a strong regular season result and it's arguably just as good as any effort that they had in 2023. There is still a lot of work to do and greater firepower will be needed for the future. But for now, the Boston-based women can feel happy about their team effort.

15. Lipscomb Bison (378 points)

We'll admit, this was a very underwhelming result for a Lipscomb team that was listed at TSR #9 in our preseason team rankings. The Bison's top-three of Mackenzie Barnett, Harley Kletz and Colbi Borland seemed to be fairly strong on Friday, going 42-50-51, respectively. That is a nice chunk of scoring value that most teams would be happy to have.

However, there was a significant drop-off after those three women. No other Bison runner cracked the top-105 spots. Linda Perez (a recent graduate transfer) and Leonie Sauer (a strong steeplechase underclassman) both had tough outings. Kiara Smeltz (formerly Kiara Carter) also struggled at the Nuttycombe Invite.

And yet, there is no need to hit the panic button if you're Lipscomb. The Bison didn't field Lydia Miller on Friday, their projected top runner and an All-American from 2023.

Adding Miller and having Smeltz in top form would have given Lipscomb a much stronger scoring group that would have placed far higher in the team standings. Is there still work to be done? Yes, for sure, but there are also (small) positives that we can take away from this performance.

16. Florida State Seminoles (409 points)

Nice run for Florida State! I knew they had a few respectable pieces, but some of their women were flat-out better than I expected them to be.

Where on Earth did Bieke Schipperen's 17th place finish come from? That was a huge low-stick result that I didn't think the 'Noles would have this season. That big breakout performance was complemented by Elizabeth Barlow's 39th place effort. However, after those two women, the scoring of this lineup became a bit shaky.

Anna Sentner (102nd) and Brooke Mullins (105th) had serviceable outings, although the latter name can likely be better in the future. No other FSU runner cracked the top-150, somewhat negating the encouraging firepower seen at the top of this lineup.

In a smaller field, the Seminoles will likely be a bit more effective as the gaps in their top-five won't be as apparent. Even so, this team seemingly has more upfront scoring than I thought they would and that's a big positive as we dive deeper into the rest of the season.

17. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (416 points)

The Wake Forest women seem like a team of the future. They have been very successful in the recruiting realm as of late and they are still considered to be fairly young squad. Even so, I wasn't expecting the Demon Deacons to place 17th in this field.

Brooke Wilson (40th) gave her team a solid lead scorer, although I thought she could have cracked the top-30. Elizabeth Whaley (78th) and Molly Dreher (80th), meanwhile, were better than expected while the same could be said for Alli Boehm (99th).

Angelina Perez (120th) closed out the scoring quickly enough to give Wake Forest a final result that they could be proud of. Yes, the overall firepower and scoring potency of this lineup will need to improve going forward. Even so, the Demon Deacons had a far more cohesive lineup than I thought they would.

18. Northwestern Wildcats (422 points)

In the grand scheme of things, the Northwestern women actually had a fairly solid outing on Friday, putting their top-four scorers in the top-90 of the overall results.

Chloe Wellings (61st), Holly Smith (70th), Ava Earl (83rd) and Ava Criniti (87th) didn't necessarily stand out as individuals, but their collective scoring value made it hard for the Wildcats to drop much lower than 18th place.

Their final scorer, Katherine Hessler (122nd), did enough to salvage a top-20 team result, although we think she can be better in the future.

Northwestern simply needs greater firepower moving forward. A low-stick would have given this group enough of a scoring edge to potentially pull off a few upsets. Even so, we saw enough to believe that Coach Jill Miller's team could return to the national meet in 2024, especially given how wide-open the Midwest region feels right now.

19. Michigan Wolverines (458 points)

I truthfully don't have much to offer in terms of analysis for the women of Big Blue.

Michigan's scoring contingent of Mary Caroline Heinen (55th), Penelopea Gordon (76th), Brooke Johnston (91st), Samantha Hastie (117th) and Rylee Tolson (121st) put together a team performance that wasn't great, but it wasn't terrible, either.

That team result was roughly on par with our expectations for the Wolverines and I have a feeling that it's a fair indicator of how the rest of their fall campaign will go.

20. Iowa State Cyclones (471 points)

Maelle Porcher placing 16th overall was a massive low-stick result that we didn't expect to see from her. We knew she was talented, but seeing her post an All-American-caliber result like that was a pleasant surprise.

Unfortunately, no other women on this team cracked the top-90 spots and their fifth runner faded to 154th place. The gaps within Iowa State's top-five were fairly extensive and that is ultimately why they faded to 20th place.

It should, however, be noted that Betty Kipkore (also known as Betty Jepchirchir) was a DNF. She is a 15:48 (5k) runner who was expected to be a low-stick for her team. While it's unclear what happened, it's still possible that Kipkore can be a low-stick for the Cyclones this season. And if that happens, then the women from Ames, Iowa should have enough scoring reinforcements to reemerge as a nationally competitive team in 2024.

21. Oregon State Beavers (479 points)

Kate Laurent's rise as a low-stick (placing 28th on Friday) was a much needed development for an Oregon State team that just lost a ton of scoring potency via the departures of Kaylee Mitchell and Grace Fetherstonhaugh.

Eimy Martinez (88th) had a decent enough showing, but no one else on Oregon State's squad cracked the top-115. Thankfully, we're fairly confident that Sage Brooks can be better, effectively cutting down on the large gaps that were found throughout the Beavers' scoring contingent. It also doesn't help that Ruby Broadbent recorded a DNF result on Friday.

The best versions of Brooks and Broadbent should, in theory, bolster this lineup enough to keep them in contention to qualify for the national meet. However, with the Oregon State women now having to race at the far less competitive West Coast Conference XC Championships this fall (instead of the PAC-12), the opportunities for this team to earn more Kolas points seem scarce.

22. Portland Pilots (493 points)

This result isn't nearly as bad as it may look on paper.

The Pilots had Fleur Templier (23rd) emerge as a great low-stick who provided some unexpected firepower. Maebh Richardson (65th), meanwhile, also had a strong outing of her own, providing respectable scoring stability.

No other woman on this team cracked the top-100 and their final two scorers faded to outside of the top-145. However, the Pilots didn't have multi-time All-American Laura Pellicoro. If she had run, then Portland suddenly becomes a very top-heavy lineup that is just as competitive as Lipscomb was on Friday.

23. Illinois Fighting Illini' (602 points)

Avril Andre (45th) had a really nice outing and it felt like a borderline breakout race for her. Teammate Halle Hill (75th) held her own as well. However, no other woman on this team cracked the top-150.

The Illinois women are in a rebuild of sorts and it's going to take some time for Coach Eric Johannigmeier to get this squad back to where they were five years ago.

24. Texas A&M Aggies (650 points)

The good news is that Texas A&M's top-two scorers -- Megan Roberts (96th) and Maddie Peters (130th) -- are listed as freshmen on TFRRS. That, in theory, signals a promising future for both of those women.

Unfortunately, that is largely where the good news ends.

25. Columbia Lions (659 points)

Phoebe Anderson (4th) continues to be an elite low-stick star for Columbia, but that's the only positive that the Lions could take from this meet. It's important to note that this team didn't have Elia Ton-That on Friday, although it wouldn't have mattered much even if she had a top-tier low-stick performance.

Columbia will likely rally back this fall to produce a subtly solid result at the Northeast regional meet like they seemingly always do. Momentum, however, will be difficult to regain.