First Thoughts: Greta Karinauskaite Goes 9:26 in Steeplechase, Five Women Run 4:08 Over 1500 Meters

And there you have it. The NCAA East & West Regional Championships are over! The fields are now set for the 2023 outdoor national meet as the women's races finished up last night. Let's review a handful of top performances that caught our attention...

Also, you can check out how we did with our regional predictions by clicking here.

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Kayla Bell Emerges As Surprise National Meet Qualifier Over 800 Meters in Women's East Region, Sylvia Chelangat Unable to Advance

The women's 800 meter finals in the East region felt like it was fairly easy to figure out through the first seven or eight names as far as national qualifying contenders go. But after that, things were far less clear, and that uncertainty was reflected in the results.

For the most part, the main contenders in this field were able to advance to the national meet. However, Kayla Bell of Murray State was not someone who I was expecting to be heading to Austin, Texas this weekend.

The rising middle distance talent went straight to the front of her preliminary heat and began pushing the pace from the gun. Bell opted to be the aggressor for most of her race. And even though she faded over the final 200 meters, the Murray State runner still held on to barely snag the third automatic national qualifying spot in her heat.

Bell running 2:04 for the half-mile distance was actually a PR. In fact, her previous personal best in the event sat at 2:05 and before early April, she had never run faster than 2:08 for 800 meters.

But if you look at the recent times that Bell has posted -- going 2:05 to 2:06 to 2:07 to 2:04 -- it's clear that she has not only reached a new level of fitness, but that she has also peaked at the right time.

You could maybe argue that Cindy Bourdier (LSU) and Lauren Tolbert (Duke) were surprises, but those women have shown flashes of being nationally competitive before. I'm not necessarily stunned that they'll be on the national stage.

Seeing South Carolina's Sylvia Chelangat fade hard in the final 100 meters of her 800 meter prelim was tough. She had been relatively consistent this spring and her ability to run as fast as 2:02 for the half-mile distance made her a clear favorite to extend her season.

Unfortunately, Chelangat was a little too aggressive a little too early, and that ultimately forced her to fade (hard) to a last place finish. That is certainly not indicative of her actual talent and we wouldn't isolate the success of her season to that result.

West Region Underdogs Take Advantage of Wide-Open Women's 800 Meter Field to Advance to National Meet

Trying to make national qualifying predictions for this field was a nightmare.

I felt confident through roughly seven or eight names, but after that group, it might as well have been a free-for-all as to who would advance to the national meet.

Sure, you could make the argument that Ella Nelson (Oregon), Rose Pittman (UCLA), Meghan Hunter (BYU) and Taylor James (Stanford) weren't favored to qualify for the NCAA Outdoor Championships. But truthfully, the women who finished behind them weren't any more favored.

Admittedly, Utah's Josefine Erickson and Grand Canyon's Kelly Moodry were popular picks to advance to the outdoor national meet this year. Those two picks, however, didn't work out.

Both Taylor James (Stanford) and Ella Nelson (Oregon) had never run faster than 2:05 for 800 meters until this weekend where ran 2:04 in back-to-back rounds. It's a similar story for Rose Pittman (UCLA) who had to run a 2:04 PR in the half-mile after running no faster than 2:05.80 this year.

Meghan Hunter (BYU) has run 2:04 for 800 meters before, but she hadn't run anything faster than 2:06 for this race as far back as March of 2022.

In other words, these women all had to have the best races of their lives to move on (or at least, very close to the best races of their lives). And sure enough, they all delivered.

Top Contenders Deliver & Surprises Remain Limited in Women's East Region 1500 Meter Field

This is a tricky field to talk about. When you see the 12 women who have qualified for the national meet in this event, it's hard to be stunned. Every single one of those women had a very realistic shot of making it to Austin, Texas.

Sure, maybe Lauren Freeland (Michigan State) was a bit of an underdog, but given that she has run 4:14 (1500) before and that she narrowly missed national qualification last spring, I don't think anyone is blown away by her bid to the NCAA Outdoor Championships.

And yet, at the same time, it's hard to see women like Samantha Tran (Michigan) and Teagan Schein-Becker (Rider) not advance.

Tran has been, without question, one of the best tactical runners in the NCAA this spring. If anyone was going to be able to thrive this weekend, it was her. And while her raw fitness maybe wasn't at the same level as a few top women, I still thought that she would be able to find herself a spot to Austin, Texas.

Schein-Becker, meanwhile, was absolutely one of the more talented women in this year's 1500 meter field in the East region -- or at the very least, one of the most dangerous. The breakout Rider star not only ran 4:10 for 1500 meters back in March, but she has also run 2:01 for 800 meters this season.

Of course, translating talent and versatility to a stage such as this isn't exactly easy to do.

But now that Schein-Becker has had the experience of consistently racing at this level, look for the middle distance ace to return next year a bit more prepared.

You could also say that Lorena Rangel Batres (LSU) and Esther Seeland (Virginia) were surprise national meet misses. However, those two women were not at all unanimous selections in our TSR regional meet predictions.

That, of course, doesn't make their future absences any less unfortunate.

Women's West Region 1500 Meter Field Produces Five 4:08 Performances & Shocking National Meet Misses

Oh boy. Buckle up, there's a lot to talk about here.

I don't think I've ever seen a regional race where the times were this fast (relatively speaking) and the field was this deep. I'm not even sure where to begin, but let's give this a go.

There were FIVE women who ran 4:08 for 1500 meters this past Saturday -- and remember, this is just from the West region. That group featured the overall winner, Sophie O'Sullivan (Washington) as well as Mia Barnett (UCLA), Klaudia Kazimierska (Oregon), Simone Plourde (Utah) and Maddy Elmore (Oregon).

Did I think that Barnett, Kazimierska and Plourde could run something this fast? Yes, I did.

All three of those women had shown signs at some point in their careers that they were capable of running a time like that. No, I didn't expect to see them post 4:08 (1500) marks at their regional meet, but that's not really what matters.

However, seeing both O'Sullivan and Elmore run 4:08 in the metric mile is just flat-out incredible and super exciting.

O'Sullivan had a very strong indoor track season. She ran 4:33 in the mile, proved to be a vital piece of Washington's DMR (which broke the collegiate record) and she also ran 9:03 for 3000 meters.

Overall, her resume held great value.

But at the indoor national meet, O'Sullivan and the rest of her teammates struggled mightily. And after a few unexciting early-season spring races, the Huskies wouldn't truly begin their competitive outdoor track campaign until late April.

Yes, we did see a few promising results at the PAC-12 Outdoor Championships from the Washington women, but nothing was more convincing that the Huskies were peaking for the postseason than this past weekend.

A 4:08 (1500) PR is not at all what I expected from this O'Sullivan, an Aussie distance talent who has been good, but never quite this good. If she had run 4:10 for 1500 meters, then I would have been far less surprised.

But now, O'Sullivan is the national leader in this event and we have to completely recalculate our understanding of the All-American and the national title pictures for this distance. Kudos to her, she dramatically improved her stock.

And then there's Maddy Elmore, the Duck standout who is a freshman by eligibility, but has been in the NCAA since the fall of 2020.

Let me be clear: A lot of us at The Stride Report really like what Elmore has brought to the table this year. She ran 4:35 in the mile on the indoor oval and has generally been very consistent across the board.

On a team that has been headlined by Izzy Thornton-Bott and Klaudia Kazimierska, it has been Elmore who has added depth to the competitive end of this roster.

However, for as good as Elmore has been, I never once thought that she could run 4:08 for 1500 meters this season. Sure, maybe by the time that she was a senior, but now? In her first-ever collegiate outdoor track season? That is just flat-out unbelievable.

O'Sullivan running 4:08 for the metric mile is certainly a major surprise, but seeing Elmore do the same thing is down-right shocking. The Oregon runner came into this race with a 4:13 (1500) PR and left the prelims with a 4:11 personal best.

But to keep dropping time, all the way down to 4:08, well...I just don't know what to expect from this rising youngster two weeks from now. I have no idea what she'll be able to do on the national stage. And yet, that's not necessarily what's important.

Instead, the more important thing to keep in mind is that Elmore can eventually be a future collegiate star in this sport -- and she has now given the Ducks a "Big Three" instead of just great depth behind an elite 1-2 punch.

It should also be noted that Oregon now has three women who have run 4:08 for 1500 meters this spring.

Also, Tianna LoStracco (Bradley) deserves some major respect. She was not favored to advance to the national meet, but the veteran ended up running 4:10 for 1500 meters to book her trip to Austin, Texas.

LoStracco has always been a very solid and competitive name in the distance scene, but she needed to have the best race of her life to get through this historically loaded field...and she did! Props to her.

Alright, now let's talk about the unfortunate misses.

The Stanford duo of Juliette Whittaker (Stanford) and Melissa Tanaka (Stanford) both failed to advance to the national meet in this event, a stunning development that took all of our TSR writers by surprise.

Tanaka's national meet miss is almost more surprising than Whittaker's miss.

The former Penn runner ventured to Stanford in the summer of 2021 as a graduate student where she became an outdoor national meet qualifier in this event. And after running 4:09 for 1500 meters at the PAC-12 Outdoor Championships earlier this spring (as well as emerging as one of the best 1200 meter legs in the entire NCAA), it seemed fair to say that a tactical maestro like Tanaka would be able to qualify for the national meet.

But the Stanford ace just didn't position herself deep enough in the top pack on Saturday. And while she was able to hang with the top group, she just didn't find the right spot to respond to the top-five women who were able to break away in a race that was relatively tactical, but still honest.

And then we have Whittaker.

A lot of people, myself included, were surprised to see Whittaker entered in the 1500 meters over the 800 meters for the West regional meet. No matter which way you sliced it, the decision to go after the metric mile didn't make much sense and it left many of us scratching our heads.

And on Saturday, after running the entire race in lane two, Whittaker just didn't have enough in the tank over the last 100 meters. Positionally, it wasn't her best effort.

But let's also not use this race to say, "See? I told you so."

Everyone in the nation expected Whittaker to advance to the national meet in this event. In fact, many of us at The Stride Report believed that she could be an All-American over 1500 meters. Just because the 800 meters was a better event decision does not mean that we can play revisionist history and suggest that we saw this coming.

That said, there was always more inherent risk to place an inexperienced freshman in a regional setting that is tactically unpredictable. And while I may not have seen this coming, I do see how it happened.

But let's all take some time to realize that Whittaker will be just fine. She's a superstar talent who will likely win a national title, maybe even multiple, over the next couple of years.

If anything, Saturday was just a valuable learning moment.

There could also be arguments that Yazmine Wright (Oklahoma), Stefanie Parsons (New Mexico), Riley Chamberlain (BYU), Taylor Rohatinsky (BYU), Gracie Morris (TCU) and Bailey Hertenstein (Colorado) were surprises misses.

But in a field as fast as this, it's understandable why those women fell out of contention. They either needed to be faster or hold more experience. TCU's Gracie Morris, it should be noted, was a DNF.

Tuohy Doubles Effectively, Most Top Contenders Advance to NCAA Championships Out of Women's East Region 5k

There isn't a whole lot to talk about here when it comes to the women's 5000 meters in the East region. Sure, there were maybe a few predictions of ours that didn't work out, but there was a clear drop-off after six or seven names where a national qualifying spot seemed to be up for grabs.

Sam Bush (NC State) didn't even start for this event, although she hasn't raced since mid-to-late April. For whatever reason, her season has ended early. Fellow teammate Allie Hays also didn't qualify for the national meet over 5000 meters, but Hays is far better in the 10k than any other distance.

I would have thought that Phoebe Anderson (Columbia), Sarah Schmitt (Indiana) and Addie Engel (Ohio State) all had good shots at punching their ticket to Austin, Texas. However, they were already viewed by TSR as fringe national qualifiers and they still finished fairly close to the top-12 anyways.

The only other notable development in this field came from Katelyn Tuohy. The NC State phenom ran 15:31 for 5000 meters after running 4:15 for 1500 meters earlier in the day.

Seeing Tuohy qualify for the outdoor national meet in both the 1500 meters and the 5000 meters isn't necessarily a surprise. That was fully expected. However, seeing her run as fast as 15:31 (5k) on the double is highly encouraging.

On the national stage, the women's 5k final will likely be fairly fast and honest, especially with Parker Valby in the field. And while Katelyn Tuohy will likely need to run faster than she did this past weekend to win national titles in both events, seeing her post a strong time on the double makes that scenario a bit more realistic.

Nationally Recognizable Names Unable To Qualify For NCAA Championships in Women's West Region 5k

For the most part, the women's West region 5k field produced very few surprise national meet qualifiers. By looking through the top-12 finishers, you could make a good argument that all of these women belong on the national stage.

Yasna Petrova (California Baptist) had a huge race, going 15:45 (5k) en route to a new personal best. That time ultimately allowed her to qualify for the national meet after a spring campaign that, admittedly, had been relatively quiet.

Of course, anyone familiar with her 2022 cross country season knows that Petrova qualifying for the outdoor national meet isn't a total shocker.

As for UC-Davis ace Brianna Weidler, it could have been very easy to overlook her. And truthfully, many of our TSR writers did just that when making their predictions. But this is someone who placed 7th at the West Regional XC Championships and 54th at the NCAA XC Championships this past fall.

And after running 15:55 and 15:48 for the 5k distance earlier this spring, there was a very real possibility that Weidler was going to have a chance at a national meet bid.

Sure enough, she delivered.

However, the real shockers were seeing Zofia Dudek (Stanford), Taylor Roe (Oklahoma State), Ruby Smee (San Francisco) and Jenna Hutchins (BYU) out of the national meet. Although, at the same time, there were subtle signs that we should have been more cautious of when making our predictions.

Dudek is one of the more naturally-talented distance runners in the NCAA. However, she has struggled quite a bit this spring despite running 15:32 (5k) at the Bryan Clay Invite. And given her history of inconsistency, it's not a total shock that the Stanford star, unfortunately, had to record a DNF result.

Roe, meanwhile, has been having a good season, but it certainly hasn't been "great". Her races this spring have left us wanting more and she is clearly not at the same level that she was during the winter months. After fighting with the top names in heat two, Roe faltered in the final few laps, ultimately ending her season early.

Hutchins, for as strong as her 15:35 (5k) mark was earlier this spring, is still VERY young. We forget that she's considered to be a true freshman! But a DNF at the Sound Running Track Fest and a modest 4:20 (1500) mark quietly suggested that this BYU rookie may not be ready to advance to the national meet right now.

As for Smee, it just wasn't her best weekend. She's usually fairly reliable over the longer distances, so I wouldn't read too much into this effort.

Women's East Region Steeplechase Field Creates National Qualifying Chaos As Numerous Surprises Emerge

There are always going to be national qualify surprises in every distance race when we reach the regional meet portion of a season. It happens every year. Some fields will have more surprises than others, but it's bound to happen.

However, in the women's East region steeplechase final that we saw on Saturday night, I was stunned to see how many top seeds fell out of top-12 contention. And in retrospect, my shock is more attributed to those who missed qualifying for the national meet than those who actually did...

But as far as the surprise names who DID move on, we need to give the spotlight to Penn's Olivia Morganti who cracked the top-12.

The Quaker star ran a 10-second PR of 9:59 over the barriers this past weekend after a regular season that was fine, but not necessarily amazing, either. She had an incredibly clutch performance and will enter Austin, Texas with tons of momentum.

And then there were those whose seasons ended early...

To not see Kayla Windemuller (Michigan), Sophie Novak (Notre Dame), Katelyn Stewart-Barnett (Michigan State) and Sasha Neglia (North Carolina) all fail to make the national meet, while Annabelle Eastman (George Mason) didn't even toe the line, is something that I'm still trying to wrap my head around.

When watching the replays, I didn't see any of those women get tripped up by the barriers. And if they did, then they were out of frame and likely out of contact with the top group by that point.

Simply put, a lot of these women just had tough outings.

I can imagine that it's a disappointing result for a lot of these runners, but they can at least take solace (however big or small that may be) in the fact that they were one of multiple highly-talented women who just didn't have their best races on Saturday.

Greta Karinauskaite Drops Incredible 9:26 Mark in Steeplechase, Now Sits At NCAA #5 All-Time

Before we dive into the Greta Karinauskaite analysis, I did want to briefly mention that this field, in general, was pretty straightforward. I could try to offer some in-depth analysis, but the fact of the matter is that 10 out of the top-12 seeds in this field ended up advancing.

Emma Tavella (UCLA) and Pauline Meyer (Arkansas State), who were the 20th and 21st seeds in this field, each ran significant personal bests en route to national qualifying spots. Tavella earned a 15-second PR in the steeplechase while Meyer dropped a huge 24-second PR of her own. But other than that, I don't have too much more to offer.

Greta Karinauskaite, however, was down-right fantastic.

Throughout the spring months, this California Baptist star was slowly improving her resume. She had a decent season debut over 10,000 meters, ran 15:36 (5k) at the Stanford Invite and later posted a 9:46 mark in the steeplechase at the Bryan Clay Invite.

But what really caught our attention was Karinauskaite soloing a fantastic 9:35 mark over the barriers and water pits at the WAC Outdoor Championships. That time ultimately put her at the top of the national leaderboard in this event.

Naturally, the conversation of, "Is Greta Karinauskaite a national title favorite in the steeplechase?" began to arise among our TSR writers. In fact, you can even listen to one of our conversations that we had about that performance on the Blue Oval Podcast.

Ultimately, our "take" came down to this: Karinauskiate could win the steeplechase national title this year, but she would need to prove herself further. Because while she is talented, the other top steeplechasers in the NCAA are better than what they have shown so far this spring and Karinauskiate, comparatively speaking, isn't nearly as experienced at this level of competition.

So what did this Lancer star do this past weekend?

Well, she validated her talent.

Soloing a 9:26 mark in the steeplechase is flat-out fantastic. It now sits at NCAA #5 all-time and it is the national lead in this event by 12 seconds (TFRRS doesn't show results from the regional or national meets). And at this level of competition, that is a massive margin.

It's been proven that Elise Thorner (New Mexico), Ceili McCabe (West Virginia), Kayley DeLay (Washington), Kaylee Mitchell (Oregon State) and Grace Fetherstonhaugh (Oregon State) are all capable of running faster in this event than they have so far this season.

And honestly, I would be shocked if a handful of those women didn't scare the 9:30 barrier on the national stage.

But Karinauskiate, in terms of her fitness, is at another level. She is the only one who has posted a time this year that you would expect to see from a national title favorite...at least in this era of steeplechasers.

With this performance, the narrative surrounding Karinauskiate has changed yet again.

The question isn't whether or not she is a national title favorite, but rather...by how much?