First Thoughts: Duncan Hamilton Goes 8:16 (Steeple) & Surprisingly Fast West Region Distance Races

There's no time to waste! With the men's regional rounds now complete, we finally have an idea of who will be on the national stage. Let's break down each of the distance races and see what insights we can pull from these results...

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NOTE: Due to a technical issue, we have been unable to update the status of our regional meet predictions. We are working on finding a solution.

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Tactical 800 Meter Races Create Close Calls in East Region

The men's 800 meter title in the East region was won in a time of 1:49.21 (by Nick Plant).

And the final time to advance to the national meet in the event?

1:50.31.

I'll admit, I was surprised to see the third and final heat be so tactical. Why wouldn't those guys try to be more aggressive when they know that the at-large 800 meter national qualifying times were barely faster than 1:50.50?

Five men from that final heat did end up advancing, so it largely didn't matter, but Virginia's Conor Murphy and Penn State's Olivier Desmeules probably left things up to chance far more than they should have.

And yes, I know that's easier said than done, but at this level, I don't think it's ridiculous to tell someone, "Hey, if you can just run 1:49 for 800 meters, when your PR is in the 1:47 range, then you should have no problem qualifying for the national meet."

But despite the tactical nature of those three heats, there were only a few major non-national qualifying casualties.

Camden Marshall (Indiana) and Aman Thornton (Clemson) simply didn't have their best days. Marshall just never got in the right position and wasn't able to respond effectively over the final 100 meters. Thornton, meanwhile, has always been better in faster races and unfortunately for him, this was definitely not one of those moments.

We also have to talk about Eastern Kentucky's Ahmed Kadri. The Colonel distance talent qualified for the outdoor national meet over 800 meters. And while everyone would usually shrug their shoulders and say, "So what?", it's important to note that Kadri also qualified for the national meet in the steeplechase less than an hour and a half before the 800 meters!

That's incredible! I don't think I've ever seen someone attempt that double, much less actually have success in it.

Admittedly, Kadri isn't the first guy who you would pick out of the regional meets as having the most raw talent in the NCAA. But that versatility, ability to double and tactical know-how is incredibly valuable.

He also probably benefitted in a major way from the 800 meters being so slow.

West Region Turns Shockingly Quick Over 800 Meters

The men's 800 meters in the East region was surprisingly slow...but conversely, the men's 800 meters in the West region was shockingly quick. In fact, we saw a slew of new personal and seasonal bests on Friday.

There a few surprises in terms of non-national meet qualifiers.

I don't think anyone would have believed us if we said that no one from the Iowa State quartet of Darius Kipyego, Peter Smith, Cebastian Gentil and Jason Gomez would advance to the national meet.

For a program that is supposed to be "800U", that wasn't a great showing.

Seeing Texas star Jonathan Jones record a DNF result was another major development. Going into the final lap of his heat, the Texas star pulled up and held his hamstring, a clear sign that he pulled something.

Jones was heavily favored to advance to the national stage, but his 800 meter races have been limited over the last year or so. We have historically viewed the Longhorn ace as more of a 400 meter runner, so his absence from this race at the national meet is something that we largely expected at the beginning of the season (although maybe not in these circumstances).

But when you look at who actually qualified for the national meet out of this field, it's hard to be disappointed. For the most part, the best of the best will be moving on to Austin, Texas.

The only real surprise that came from this field in terms of national qualifying was Oregon's Matthew Erickson. The Duck middle distance runner has always been a solid and reliable name, but he has lacked the upper-tier firepower to compete with the top names in the West region...until this week.

Erickson's personal best coming into this week of racing was 1:47.27 (800) from the 2022 West Regional Championships. And in total, he had only ever run 1:48 three times for the half-mile distance, often settling for 1:49 efforts instead.

But in Sacramento, this out-of-nowhere Oregon star dropped a huge 1:47 (800) personal best in the prelim rounds and then threw down an incredible 1:46.84 mark for the distance to advance to the national meet!

There's a good argument to be had that, relative to expectations, no male middle or long distance runner peaked this past week better than Erickson did.

To suddenly go from 1:48 to 1:46 over 800 meters in the span of three days is incredible. And while I have always thought highly of this Oregon standout, I admittedly didn't know if he would ever be able to reach this level (or at the very least, reach it this quickly).

I also gotta give some major props to Aidan McCarthy of Cal Poly. He was always a talented middle distance guy, running 1:47 for 800 meters earlier this season and also posting a 3:39 mark for 1500 meters, but he has only gotten better.

Yesterday, the Mustang star threw down an incredible 1:46 mark for 800 meters, a new PR en route to the overall win over an accomplished field. And while the regional rounds shouldn't be given much emphasis in terms of placement, McCarthy looked like he was executing his race in a tactical manner while still running a national-caliber time.

Watch out for him in two weeks. McCarthy is going to be a problem in Austin, Texas.

Also, as a side note, Missouri's Christopher Conrad (1:46) and Kansas' AJ Green (1:47) have been having the best seasons that they've ever had. They looked great on Friday.

Sit-&-Kick Races Spark 1500 Meter Surprises in East Region

The men's 800 meter races in the East region were highly tactical and so were the men's 1500 meters in the East region.

The overall winning time in this field was no faster than 3:48 while the final man to qualify for the national meet via an at-large bid was 3:49.56. However, the first-five men of section one automatically qualified for the national meet with marks of 3:53 (and a lone 3:54 effort).

Because these races were so tactical and ultimately came down to a kick, raw talent ultimately played less of a factor than racing IQ.

Don't get me wrong, most of the top guys in this field are still moving on to Austin, Texas. However, I don't think anyone was expecting Mael Gouyette (Iona) or Finn Walsh (Pitt) to snag a national qualifying spot.

Other names like Sean Donoghue (Villanova), John Petruno (Michigan State) and Evan Dorenkamp (Penn State), while highly accomplished, were also men who we felt to be on the fringe of national qualifying.

But in defense of those men, specifically Gouyette and Walsh, that is a very underrated group. Each of those guys have shown subtly great signs of either consistency, upper-tier fitness or brilliant tactical racing.

And sure enough, these guys simply knew how to position themselves a little more effectively than some of the more established names in this field.

The unexpected national meet misses feel endless when looking at this event. Outside of Eliud Kipsang (Alabama) and Luke Tewalt (Wake Forest) not getting out of the first round, we also saw Wes Porter (Virginia), Nick Dahl (Duke), Shane Bracken (Ole Miss), Nathan Henderson (Syracuse), Viktor Idhammar (Virginia Tech), Brady Bai (Kent State) and Davis Bove (LSU) fail to advance as well.

That's a tough crop of talent to not see on the national stage, although not everyone among that group has been perfect this season. In my eyes, it's not like those men were invincible to having a tactical miscue or just an "off" day.

Men's West Region 1500 Meter Field Holds Few Surprises

There...really isn't a whole lot to talk about here.

This was a fairly predictable race, at least in my eyes. In fact, I accurately predicted 10 out of the 12 men who would end up advancing to Austin, Texas from this field. The second heat (which was insanely loaded by the way), was admittedly the group that produced a handful of sub-3:40 (1500) marks and took all of the at-large time qualifiers.

However, everyone who was supposed to advance had no problem doing so.

Sure, there were some names who could be viewed as surprises misses. For our readers, maybe that's Aidan Ryan (Washington), Ryan Schoppe (Oklahoma State), Elias Schreml (Arkansas) or Sean Maison (Air Force) -- and I'm only talking about the regional finals, not the prelims.

But while Garrett MacQuiddy (California), Christopher Middleton-Pearson (Oklahoma State) and Alex Stitt (Oklahoma State) weren't everyone's picks to advance, I had no problem picking those first two men.

Sure, maybe I just want to brag a little bit, but when we look at what Ryan, Schoppe and Schreml have done this year, they haven't always been perfect. Admittedly, I had Sean Maison advancing, but outside of him, MacQuiddy and Middleton-Pearson have been better, tactically, than some people realize.

Anthony Camerieri Misses 5k Advancement in East Region, Rest of Field Goes Chalk

These two 5k heats just didn't excite me all that much. I don't want to say it was predictable, but the results lacked surprise.

I'll admit, seeing names like Kirami Yego (South Alabama), Acer Iverson (Harvard), Tom Brady (Michigan) and Baldvin Magnusson (Eastern Michigan) fail to make it to Austin, Texas in this race was a little surprising. But given that a lot of those men also ran in the 10k earlier this week, a few "off" days were bound to happen on tired legs.

And truthfully, when you look at the guys who did make it, you can't be too upset with the quality of men who will be representing the East region two weeks from now.

But Anthony Camerieri (Ole Miss) not qualifying for the NCAA Outdoor Championships over 5000 meters was tough to see. This guy was probably one of the five-most talented distance runners in this field. He had been great over 1500 meters and the 5k this spring and even looked like an outside threat to earn All-American honors.

Unfortunately for him, the Rebel star just didn't fare well in a tactical second heat as he just couldn't stay tight to the back of the lead pack.

However, in his place will be Princeton's Nicholas Bendtsen, a guy who has been having a sneaky-good year on the oval.

The rising Tiger distance talent didn't have a great showing in this event at the Ivy League Championships a few weeks ago, but he has run 13:35 (5k) and 3:41 (1500) this spring. He also ran 3:59 (mile) this past winter.

On paper, Bendtsen was talented enough to be one of the 12 men who will be going to Austin, Texas out of this region. However, up until this past week, his championship races had left us something to be desired.

Men's West Region 5k Becomes Shockingly Fast, But Top Names Come Out Unscathed

Does anyone know why every distance race in the men's West region decided to be absurdly fast? And why everyone in the men's East region races opted to employ super slow/tactical approaches?

Just a very weird dichotomy...

Stanford's Ky Robinson eventually took over the first heat of the men's 5000 meters and kept the pace honest. He was eventually chased down by Washington's Brian Fay, although the Aussie star hung on for the top time of the day in 13:22.

Why Robinson and a few other men opted to make this race so fast is unknown to me, but it ultimately worked out. I don't know if it was necessary, but it was a safe decision to make things aggressive and honest.

And because of that, the top men rose to the occasion. Any tactical shenanigans became afterthoughts, ultimately limited any major surprises. 11 men ended up running under 13:40 for 5000 meters between the two heats and the two at-large time qualifiers in this race were 13:30 (Toby Gillen) and 13:40 (Chandler Gibbens).

Eli Bennett of Air Force was probably the only guy who emerged as a surprise national meet qualifier in this event. But even then, saying that he was a "surprise" feels like a stretch. The rising Falcon distance talent just ran 13:39 for 5000 meters, but held a 13:42 PR in the event prior to Friday night.

Plus, when I look at all of the men who didn't qualify for the NCAA Outdoor Championships, it feels like that final national qualifying spot could have gone to anyone. In this case, that last "up for grabs" spot just happened to go to Bennett.

Men's East Region Steeplechase Lacks Surprises

I don't want to completely ignore an entire race / field, but this was about as chalk as you could get as far as who was advancing to the national meet.

Sure, we weren't perfect in our predictions, but when I go through each name who qualified for the NCAA Outdoor Championships in this event, I can't say that I'm blown away. On paper, each of those men had very realistic shots of reaching Austin, Texas.

Some people could say that Providence's Patrick Thygesen, who has run 8:33 in the steeplechase, was a surprise miss, but this is also someone who hasn't raced since the third weekend of March.

And as far as the times go, they were somewhat honest, but certainly not mind-blowing by any means. And truthfully, there just isn't much more to talk about than that. Let's move on...

Duncan Hamilton Runs NCAA #2 All-Time Steeplechase Mark of 8:16 in Completely Solo Effort

I like to imagine that Duncan Hamilton was a little annoyed from all of the "Kenneth Rooks is the new de-facto national title favorite in the steeplechase" chatter following the BYU star's 8:17 mark at the Sound Running Track Fest.

Whether or not that was a motivating force behind Hamilton's all-out solo steeplechase effort of 8:16 isn't entirely known. But what we do know is that the Montana State star is still fit enough to be viewed as a national title favorite in this event.

That display of raw fitness is just absurd and it's something that we should take time to appreciate. And yet, at the same time, I'm not entirely sure if I saw it being necessary.

Maybe Hamilton wanted to send a statement. Maybe Hamilton had a plan that could have helped his fellow teammates advance to the national meet (which worked). Maybe Hamilton wanted to see if anyone else in the West region could truly match the talent that both he and Rooks had shown this season.

But for as impressive as this performance was, I'm not sure it changes anything.

Hamilton is still a contender for the national title in the steeplechase and I think we still felt that way before this race. It's the last lap of this race, however, that will likely decide who wins the national title in this event. And for Hamilton, his 8:16 mark, while insanely impressive, doesn't necessarily tell us anything distinctly new about him...

To be very clear, I don't want to take anything away from his effort. It may end up being the single-best distance performance of the season. But I just don't think that the narrative around the national title race has changed all that much.

Speaking of Montana State...are they the new "Steeple U." distance program?

Well, after sending redshirt freshman Rob McManus and veteran Levi Taylor to the national meet in this event (along with Hamilton), Coach Lyle Weese's group of barrier jumpers may have earned that honor.

As for everyone else, they are either, a) thanking Duncan Hamilton for leading them to a new steeplechase PR, or b) frustrated at Duncan Hamilton for making them run faster than they wanted to going into the national meet.

But even with some key personal bests coming from UTEP's Victor Kipiego (8:26), Oklahoma State's Victor Shitsama (8:30), Montana State's Rob McManus (8:31), New Mexico's Awet Yohannes (8:33), Oregon's Alex Slenning (8:34), UCLA's Peter Herold (8:35) and Weber State's Bronson Winter (8:38), there weren't too many shocking developments.

The steeplechase is usually an event that gets faster in the postseason and everyone who is advancing to the national meet in this event was picked by at least one of our writers to qualify...with the exception of Peter Herold.

Between past experience and momentum, each of these men had good arguments to say that they'll be on the national stage. Yes, Joel Mendez (Utah Valley) was a surprise miss, but it's hard to be upset about his result when you see that he ran an 8:37 (steeple) PR.