First Thoughts: Regional 10k Races & Notable Prelim Surprises

It has naturally been a crazy-busy week here at The Stride Report. And as results continue to flood in, I wanted to get out some quick thoughts on the first day(s) of men's and women's action from the Division One regional meets.

Admittedly, for the sake of time, today's analysis will be a little more brief than a standard First Thoughts article, but we highly suggest that you take a look back at all of our awesome content and even review the current status of our regional picks (which are now color coded).

So with that, let's begin...

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Aidan O'Gorman Emerges As Lone East 10k Surprise

Gosh, this race was...boring.

Not necessarily bad, just boring.

There were very few surprises in this race. The pace wasn't particularly quick (although the first few finishers dipped under 29:00) and most of the national meet qualifiers were somewhat expected. In fact, everyone who is going to Austin, Texas from this race was picked by at least one of our six writers to advance...well, except for one name.

North Florida's Aidan O'Gorman had the race of his life. Sure, he had run faster during the regular season, posting a time of 28:59.90 (10k) at the Raleigh Relays, but he was listed at NCAA #89 on the overall national leaderboard for this distance. And after six scratches, he was seeded at 27th in his region.

Yes, Acer Iverson was seeded further back as the 37th seed, but no one would doubt the talent that the Harvard ace has shown this year and in previous seasons.

O'Gorman has had a solid year on the oval and he has clearly been one of the better names in the ASUN. But this is a guy who didn't even win his 10k conference title this spring and he has never run faster than 14:02 for 5000 meters (which he ran this past winter).

On paper, the odds were stacked against this Osprey standout.

Was there anything special about how O'Gorman ran this race? No, not really. He just hung onto the pack and didn't relent. And while it may not have been the prettiest race, the North Florida standout was at least able to benefit from the lead pack being a perfect group of 12. In other words, he wasn't necessarily fighting anyone for those last few spots.

But regardless of how the race played out, O'Gorman should be thrilled with this result.

Drew Bosley Remains Absent, Cole Sprout Misses Top-12

Much like the men's 10k race in the East region, this 10k race in the West region was rather unexciting, although it was significantly faster (by a good margin). That, in turn, likely favored certain men who ended up qualifying for the NCAA Championships instead of a few others.

The Stanford men clearly wanted to make this race fast. And with top contenders like Patrick Kiprop and Bob Liking not afraid to employ aggressive front-running tactics when they want to, it made sense that we saw 22 men run under the 29-minute barrier (with 13 men running 28:31 or faster for the 10k distance).

Generally speaking, there weren't any major shocks or national qualifying stunners, at least not nearly to the same magnitude that we saw from Aidan O'Gorman in the East region.

That said, if you had told me that Ryan Johnson (Air Force), Rory Leonard (Oklahoma State), Creed Thompson (BYU), Christian Allen (BYU), Joey Nokes (BYU), Cole Sprout (Stanford) and Charlie Sweeney (Colorado) would ALL miss out on a national qualifying spot in this event, I would have said that it was highly unlikely.

In my mind, at least two of those guys were going to advance.

And yet, at the same time, when I look at the men who did finish in the top-12, I can only shrug my shoulders and say, "Yeah that seems about right."

Ben Perrin (Montana State) and James Mwaura (Gonzaga) weren't picked by any of our writers to qualify for the outdoor national meet in the 10,000 meters. However, they were picked by a few writers to advance when they race in the 5k later this weekend.

Plus, in theory, an aggressive pace was going to favor those two guys (Mwaura especially) which is something that we didn't think was going to happen.

Cole Sprout not advancing to the national meet is a bit of a bummer, but it's also understandable. He sustained an injury at the tail-end of the indoor track season and didn't make his season debut until the Payton Jordan Invite.

I'll admit, I'm surprised that someone who has had his training interrupted by injury multiple times this year would focus on the 10k this spring. Wouldn't it make sense to go after a fast 5k rather than the 10k if you don't have a full/recent aerobic block of training?

When his career is all wrapped up, Sprout will probably have found the most success over 10,000 meters, but this spring, I'm surprised that he didn't toe the line for a fast 5k effort.

And then there's Drew Bosley.

Earlier this season, the Northern Arizona star was seen on Instagram sporting crutches. He had also been absent from racing ever since his debut 10k which he contested at the Stanford Invite.

But Bosley was in the 10k entries when they were released and he had scratched out of the 5k, making it seem like he would at least be healthy enough for Wednesday night. However, the Lumberjack standout was seemingly a late scratch from the race.

It's an unfortunate end to the season for someone who was viewed as a title contender.

Strzelecki & Atkinson Surprise As 10k National Qualifiers

When you look back at our regional meet predictions for this exact race, you'll find that there were very clearly eight or nine names who our writers felt pretty good about. In fact, all of our writers either got seven out of 12 names correct or eight out of 12 names correct.

Simply put, there was a very clear and defined line of who The Stride Report thought the top names in this field were. That's why those last four-ish national qualifying spots seemed to be up for grabs.

And it's also why there were seemingly a handful of surprises.

Certain women like Daisy Liljegren (Boston U.), Kenzie Doyle (UMass Lowell) and Ava Nuttall (Miami (OH)) may not have been unanimous picks to qualify for the national meet, but they've all shown signs of being national-caliber names -- and often more than once! In fact, consistency was a major reason why I picked Kenzie Doyle despite her being the 16th seed.

But then we come to Sophie Atkinson (Virginia) and Erin Strzelecki (Notre Dame).

Both of those women have had flashes of promise. You don't always know what you're going to get from them, but when they're clicking on all cylinders, they're not easy to hang with.

However, Strzelecki isn't even among the top-100 fastest women in the nation this year for the 10,000 meters! Not only that, but she was also the 41st seed in this field! With two DNF marks on her resume this season, once at the Wake Forest Invitational (5k) and once at the ACC Outdoor Championships (10k), it was hard to make an argument that she would be a national qualifier in this event.

Now, in her defense, Strzelecki did run 15:51 for 5000 meters earlier this season to earn a strong win at the Penn Relays. That, however, was clearly the best result that she's had on the track this year.

But it was that kind of race which suggested that this Notre Dame runner, on a perfect day and in an ideal scenario, could be a top-12 finisher on the regional stage.

And when you remember that she placed 54th at the NCAA XC Championships this past fall, it becomes more and more understandable as to how someone like her (who seemingly flew under the radar) is now going to Austin, Texas.

As for Atkinson, she was one of the juggernaut distance stars who joined the Virginia women a few years ago as a recruit. However, with the exception of the 2022 cross country season, this Texas native has been fairly quiet.

With personal bests of 9:20 (3k), 16:12 (5k) and 34:12 (10k) -- the latter of which was improved to a time of 33:53 on Thursday night -- Atkinson just didn't have anything on her resume to say that she was going to finish 8th place overall in this race.

The Virginia runner was outside of the top-100 marks for the women's 10k, nationally, this spring and was only the 10th place finisher at her own conference meet in this event. And by coming in as the 39th seed in this field, the chances were simply not high for Atkinson to advance to the NCAA Outdoor Championships.

But much like Strzelecki, the 2022 cross country season showed us that this Virginia sophomore always had the potential to put together this kind of 10k performance.

After all, Atkinson finished 9th at the Panorama Farms Invitational, was 22nd at the ACC XC Championships, placed 13th at Southeast Regional XC Championships and crossed the line at the NCAA XC Championships just six places out of All-American honors (46th).

Hebner & Born Run Big PRs to Advance to National Meet

This race was FAST.

And I mean, REALLY fast.

Everlyn Kemboi (Utah Valley) took home the regional title in a blistering time of 32:03 for the 10,000 meter distance. A total of 13 women dipped under the 33-minute barrier. But in retrospect, it makes sense that this race was as fast as it was.

When you look at the women in this field who qualified for the national meet, you can make the argument that they all thrive in honestly-paced races. Based on what I've seen from them, a lot of these runners haven't necessarily found themselves in sit-and-kick affairs or in tactical battles.

And truthfully, only a small handful of these women can effectively drop down in distance.

But even with this race being absurdly fast, you would expect at least one of these women to be a little caught off guard and to drop-off from the main qualifying pack (and that happens all of the time) in these regional races.

That, however, didn't happen. Instead, the most talented women simply rose to the top, leading to very few surprises...but there were still a few.

That's also why I wasn't expecting to see Monica Hebner (Texas) or Molly Born (Oklahoma State) emerge as top-12 finishers in this event on Thursday night.

Prior to this week, Hebner simply didn't look like a national qualifying talent this season. While she has been to the national stage before in this event (during her time with Duke), she didn't seem to have the requisite firepower to match her competitors in this field. Her 10k PR sat at a fine, but modest, mark of 33:45 which came earlier this season.

Naturally, you can understand my surprise when I saw Hebner run 32:54 for 10,000 meters last night which is an INSANE 51-second personal best.

That is just unheard of, at least when it comes to a single race.

Now, with prior championship experience, a massive PR and a clear ability to thrive in fast-paced races, I can't help but wonder what kind of damage this long-time collegiate veteran could do on her home track two weeks from now.

We then come to Molly Born, the Oklahoma State veteran who has a unique background.

The Cowgirl distance talent was a true star as far back as 2019, finishing 16th place overall at the 2019 NCAA XC Championships. But after an extended absence, Born returned looking like she was at 80% of her peak fitness, eventually placing 54th at the 2021 NCAA Winter XC Championships.

One month later, she would run 33:10 for 10,000 meters, her then-personal best.

In the fall of 2021, Born seemed to be nearing her peak form once more, putting together an excellent regular season of competition. However, she would settle for 73rd place at the 2021 NCAA Fall XC Championships.

That was the last time that we had seen Born race until January of this year. Since then, she has run 9:19 for 3000 meters and had a few decent 10k efforts, posting a time of 33:20 at the Stanford Invitational.

At her best, Born is a name who is closer to the top-tier portion of this field than not. But given her inconsistency and abrupt long-term hiatuses, it's been hard to put much consideration into her as a potential 10k national qualifier.

But on Thursday night, the long-time collegiate distance talent ran 32:42 for 10,000 meters, a 28-second PR in the event and a 38-second seasonal best time.

It's hard not to root for Born. She has had so many ups and downs throughout her competitive collegiate career. And historically, she is a true national-caliber talent when she's at her best.

TFRRS suggests that Born is only a sophomore on the track this spring, although she has been in the NCAA since the fall of 2018. Maybe there's a chance that she does come back next year (she has numerous gaps in her racing resume), but if she doesn't, then what an awesome way for this veteran to go out (at the national meet, that is).

Quick Hits: Prelim Surprises

• Eliud Kipsang (Alabama) and Luke Tewalt (Wake Forest) are both out of the men's 1500 meters in the East region. If I'm Tewalt, I couldn't be more frustrated. He yet again fell to no fault of his own, but based strictly on the live results, he won't be advancing. When it comes to Kipsang, something is just "off" with him. He's never been a great tactical runner, but struggling in the 1500 meter prelims at the SEC Championships and on Wednesday leads me to believe that there is something going on that I simply don't know about.

• Ayman Zahafi (Miami (FL)) and Cole Johnson (Michigan) didn't make it out of the 800 meter prelims in the East region. For Zahafi, it's instances like these why we put an emphasis on his championship racing and tactics.

• There weren't many surprise misses in either the East region for the women's 1500 meters or the women's 800 meters. Sure, certain distance runners like Loral Winn (Ole Miss), Madaline Ullom (Penn State), Grace Jensen (Georgetown), Kiliegh Kane (Penn State), Caroline Timm (Kennesaw State), Jenna Schwinghamer (Kentucky), Kaitlin Ryan (Notre Dame) and Samanthan Friborg (Yale) were probably expected to at least make the finals in their respective events. However, none of those names were heavy favorites to go to the national meet.

• There weren't a ton of shocking misses for the men's 800 meters or the 1500 meters in the West region. However, Sebastian Fernandez (BYU) simply had a rough day, struggling mightily in the final 150 meters of his 800 meter prelim. Him not making it to the national meet, much less the regional finals, is a significant surprise.

• Taylor Rohatinsky (BYU), Carmen Alder (BYU) and Madison Heisterman (Washington) didn't make it past the first round of the women's 1500 meters in the West region. For the BYU women, that's likely just the result of inexperience, something that, up until Thursday, hadn't really affected them.

• Everlyn Kemboi, the Utah Valley star who was shockingly entered in the 1500 meters, the 5000 meters and the 10,000 meters for this week/weekend, finished last overall in this field after she seemingly jogged her prelim race. And while I understand why she did that, I don't know why she would be entered in this race to begin with. Why go through the trouble of jogging a prelim race when it was clearly not a priority?

• Also, these West region prelims for the women's 1500 meters were SUPER fast. Based on the live results, nine women ran personal bests and were led by Mia Barnett (UCLA) who ran 4:09.30 for the 1500 meter distance! In total, eight women ran 4:14 or faster.

• There were very few surprises for the women's 800 meter prelims in the West region, although common national meet picks from our writers such as Kelly Moody (Grand Canyon), Josefine Eriksen (Utah), Ellie Deligianni (Stanford) and Alyssa Balandran (Rice) didn't work out.