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First Thoughts (D3): Colorado College Women Stun With Massive Upset, UW-La Crosse Puts Six Men in Top-20 to Secure Victory
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Sep 22, 2024
- 11 min read
In a season that is often dominated by Division One, it's rare for Division Two and Division Three-centric meets to get their own post-race articles, especially in mid-to-late September. That, of course, is exactly what we have for you today!
The John McNichols XC Invitational, specifically the "Open" sections, featured a handful of the most elite Division Three distance programs in the NCAA going head-to-head. And not only were the final results highly entertaining, but they were also highly surprising, specifically on the women's side.
Let's break down a few of the latest developments from Terre Haute, Indiana and see what insights we can pull from these early-season battles...
NOTE: The Stride Report has been informed that these results will NOT be considered for at-large bids for the 2024 D3 cross country national meet as the meet was scheduled outside of the eight-week qualifying window prior to the national meet.
Men's Open Race
1. UW-La Crosse Eagles (46 points)
When we were crafting our preseason D3 cross country team rankings, there wasn't as much certainty as to who our TSR #1 squad would be compared to our D1 and D2 lists. While the UW-La Crosse men were certainly a good option to take our top spot, there were arguments for other teams to be deemed as the NCAA D3 preseason national title favorites.
After all, the Eagles didn't return a single All-American from last fall.
And yet, after seeing how much success UW-La Crosse had on the oval this past winter and spring, it was undeniable that they would be a top-tier power in 2024. So far, that theory has seemingly held true.
Grant Matthai (2nd) was fantastic on Saturday, further thriving to deliver an elite low-stick result. His brother, Aidan Matthai (7th), also produced an outstanding low-stick effort of his own, giving the Eagles the best 1-2 punch in the field.
With Joey Sullivan (10th) and Corey Fairchild (11th) each looking like fringe All-Americans and providing outstanding scoring support of their own, UW-La Crosse was simply not going to be beaten. Adam Loenser (16th) closed out the scoring, giving the Eagles a somewhat comfortable win which featured tons of firepower and plenty scoring stability.
What really impressed us about this team performance from the Wisconsin-based men is that they ran as well as they did with veteran Adam Loesner, their 8:44 steeplechaser, dropping back to 16th place. We're fairly confident that he can be better in the future which would further raise this team's ceiling.
Not only that, but with Jayden Zywicki (18th) finishing not far behind Loesner, the UW-La Crosse men could have had any of their five scorers record a DNF result and they still would have won...by 10 points (after calculating displacement).
This team looks extremely good. Their only challenge from here on out will be to stay healthy and to translate this recent success to the postseason. If they do that, then they'll win NCAA gold.
2. Wartburg Knights (72 points)
The Wartburg men fielded a lineup which didn't have firepower that was quite as potent as what UW-La Crosse produced. And yet, the Knights still had a very balanced and complete top-five filled with great scoring value.
Isaiah Hammerand (5th) had the race of his life, coming out of nowhere to secure a huge low-stick result. That was a big result considering that we were expecting Tyler Schermerhorn (28th) to compete for the individual win.
Jacob Green (13th), Shane Erb (15th) and Ander Julian (17th) were each great in their own right, especially the latter name who probably had the best performance of his career. Julian's rise has to be a calming development for a team that is still trying to piece together exactly what their lineup will look like this fall.
Lance Sobaski (22nd) closed out the scoring with a commendable race, giving Wartburg a convincing runner-up result over a still-strong North Central team. Of course, if Schermerhorn was as potent as we thought he could have been, then the final scores between the Knights and UW-La Crosse would have been much closer. Yes, the Eagles still would have won, but the narrative leaving the race would have been very different than what it is now.
3. North Central Cardinals (95 points)
There is good news and there is bad news when it comes to North Central.
The good news is that the Cardinals' top-two scorers, Emerald Svienty (6th) and BJ Sorg (8th), were the same great low-sticks that we fully expected them to be. Sure, we thought the former could have contended for the win, but the latter is who needed to take that next big step for North Central to have success this fall (and he did).
Now, in fairness to both Jonathan Olenek (21st) and Matthew Jett (25th), they held their own and did a fairly solid job stabilizing this lineup despite having to face multiple national title-caliber teams. It's also unfair to compare this squad to last year's group which featured tons of raw firepower.
Admittedly, depth may be an issue for this group moving forward. Their final scorer placed 39th which isn't ideal for a squad aiming to return to the podium. Even so, this team still had a great up-front scoring presence and the middle portion of their top-five was fairly stable. On paper, that should still be enough to keep NCC in the podium hunt come November.
4. Johns Hopkins Blue Jays (141 points)
I can only shrug my shoulders and say, "Yeah, that's about right." Emmanuel Leblond (4th) continues to be, in my opinion, one of the most underrated low-stick standouts in all of Division Three. I sincerely believe that he can be / will be a top-10 talent at this year's national meet and Saturday seemingly validated that idea.
Lucas Rackers (27th) was quietly solid, bringing great scoring stability to the table which is exactly what he was recruited out of the transfer portal to do. Rowan Cassidy (33rd), meanwhile, offered similar scoring value.
After seeing the Blue Jays' final two scorers place 42nd and 44th, it feels like we have a pretty good idea about what this team is capable of in 2024. They have a complete enough top-five to remain competitive in most fields, but their ceiling will directly correlate with the momentum of the latter-half of this scoring contingent.
5. NYU Violets (144 points)
If I'm the NYU men, I'm feeling pretty happy about how Saturday went.
The Violets were a "Just Missed" team in our preseason cross country rankings, but some of our writers were higher on this squad than I was. Of course, there's a reason why they focus solely on Division Three and I do not.
The NYU men didn't flex much firepower at the John McNichols Invite, but they did showcase some of the best team-centric running in the field. The quartet of Ryan Tobin, Evan Sherman, Liam Hagerty and Jeffrey Chen went 20-23-26-30, respectively, to collectively offer great scoring value. Their final scorer did fade to 50th place, but as long as he was within a reasonable distance of his above-mentioned teammates, then that shouldn't matter much.
Sure, the Violets were going to need more scoring potency at the top of the results if they were going to truly stand out. Even so, this team seemingly has a fairly high floor and a breakout race from one of their scorers could allow NYU to score an upset or two this fall.
Quick Hits:
6. Lynchburg Hornets (245 points)
As expected, Chasen Hunt (9th) was great, but Tor Hotung-Davidsen (34th) faded a bit from expectations as did Sam Llaneza (59th). With no other men being able to step up to fill the gaps, the Lynchburg men surprisingly struggled on Saturday. It's probably best not to put too much stock into this lone race, but this was certainly not the way you want to kick-off your fall campaign.
7. Calvin Knights (246 points)
Very solid running from Luke Witvliet (19th) who was supported by two respectable efforts from Eric Swinson (40th) and Caleb Gaffner (45th). The gaps that were spread throughout this lineup are hard to ignore, but at least there is a core of men who the Knights can build around over the next two months.
Individual Race
An absolutely huge win for Nathan Tassey of Roger Williams! We loved the improvements that he made on the track, but this is undoubtedly the best cross country race of his career. Yes, he was a 22nd place All-American last fall, but in retrospect, he was likely capable of being a top-15 name back then. He secured the overall win this past weekend convincingly over other names who could potentially be in the hunt for a top-five finish at this year's national meet.
Also, I'm not quite sure why I left Cornell College's Isaac vanWestrienen (3rd) out of my pre-race predictions. I figured he was capable of being a top-five D3 runner on Saturday and for whatever reason, I didn't list him. Thankfully, vanWestrienen reminded me just how dangerous he can be even in the most competitive D3 fields in the NCAA.
Women's Open Race
1. Colorado College Tigers (79 points)
The Colorado College women were not supposed to win this race.
At all.
In fact, of the eight D3 women's teams that we highlighted in our meet preview, Colorado College wasn't even passively mentioned. Heck, the Tigers weren't even listed as a "Just Missed" or an "Honorable Mention" team in our preseason rankings!
And yet, they just came away with what may be the single-biggest upset victory at any level of collegiate cross country that we'll see this season.
So...how did we so blatantly whiff as badly as we did?
Truthfully, I don't know. I'm still trying to figure that out.
Veterans Isabel Olson, Sydney Rankin and Alison Mueller-Hickler were flat-out incredible, going 2-3-6, respectively, in the overall results. Those are easily the best performances of each of those women's careers.
It's also not like those women are newcomers to the program. Each of those runners were developed in-house at Colorado College and just came together to form an overwhelmingly lethal scoring group. With Elliott Singer (15th) having an excellent performance as well, the Tigers' top-four was able to make up for their fifth scorer fading to 57th place.
In fact, despite that backend drop-off, the Tigers still won by 11 points.
I truthfully can't remember the last time I saw an upset like this and I'm struggling to figure out how a team like Colorado College flew under the radar as much as they did. Should we expect the Tigers to field an elite top-four like this for the rest of the season? What will the backend of this scoring group look like moving forward? Will that even matter? Do we feel comfortable enough saying that this team can contend for NCAA gold in November?
I'll let our D3 writers take care of those questions for future articles, but my goodness, what a run by the Tigers.
2. U. of Chicago Maroons (90 points)
It may be easy to look at this result as a disappointing loss for the U. of Chicago women, a team that is gunning for the national title.
However, it's hard to fault the Maroons -- who didn't have All-American Elisabeth Camic or 16:51 (5k) runner Sophie Tedesco -- for losing to a Colorado College team that just came out of nowhere.
Evelyn Battleson-Gunkel (1st) was brilliant as expected, taking home the individual win with ease. Estelle Snider (11th) offered very solid secondary scoring value as well while Anna Watson (18th) and Laura Baeyens (22nd) stabilized this lineup to keep them in contention for the win. Despite a gap forming, Rebecca Sonn-Lees (38th) closed out the scoring while Nora Holmes (42nd) wasn't too far behind.
For the most part, U. of Chicago ran very well considering that they didn't have two low-stick-caliber women. If the Maroons had either Camic or Tedesco in their lineup this past weekend, then they almost certainly would have secured the win.
3. NYU Violets (96 points)
Everything that we said about U. of Chicago can largely be said about the NYU women.
The Violets entered this meet as our TSR #1 team. They returned tons of experienced distance talents who seemingly had high ceilings and plenty of proven talent. You could see that with Janie Cooper (4th) producing an outstanding low-stick effort of her own. Meanwhile, Josephine Dziedzic (16th) and Lucy Gott (19th) stepped up admirably to give their team a respectable and stable top-three.
Olivia Jackson (28th) held her own, but Kate Cochran (29th) had a bit of an "off" day. The same could be said for Vivian Kane (51st) who didn't even emerge as a top-seven runner for the Violets. Not only that, but the team's star low-stick, Morgan Uhlhorn, recorded a DNF!
Both Cochran and Kane are capable of being borderline low-sticks on their best days and Uhlhorn is a top-half All-American from last fall. If just one of those women ran up to their full potential, then the Violets would have either secured the win, or have come very close to doing so.
Now, admittedly, seeing both Cochran and Kane falter a bit while their lead ace, Uhlhorn, took a fall is hardly ideal. But considering that this meet isn't even being used for national qualifying purposes, we're not at all ready to be anywhere near the panic button for this team.
In fact, we're borderline encouraged by how well their scoring reinforcements stepped up on what was clearly an "off" day for this team.
4. Johns Hopkins Blue Jays (101 points)
They may have faded to 4th place, but this was a MUCH better team performance than some people may give Johns Hopkins credit for when they just glance at the results.
The Blue Jays' trio of freshman Carter Brotherton (9th), recent transfer Emma Puetz (12th) and veteran Triya Roy (14th) were fantastic, providing great scoring value that actually surpassed the top-three of NYU. Sure, each of those women showed promise in different ways leading up to this season, but Saturday was yet another outstanding display of how effective Coach Bobby Van Allen is as a developer and recruiter.
Sydney Shock (30th) kept the team scoring relatively in check while Cooper Brotherton (36th) closed out the Blue Jays' top-five while teammate Adriana Catalano (37th) offered nice scoring insurance.
For a group that lost so much firepower from last fall, this Johns Hopkins team was a pleasant surprise on Saturday.
5. Calvin Knights (114 points)
When I first saw that the Colorado College women had the best top-three in the field with placements of 2-3-6, I thought, "No other team in this race could have possibly come close to that, right?"
Well, believe it or not, the Calvin women actually came very close to matching that incredible scoring potency. That's because the Knights' trio of Sophie Bull, Jenna Allman and Natalie Tebben were absolutely brilliant, going 5-7-8, respectively. That is A TON of firepower that we did not at all expect this team to have going into the 2024 cross country season.
We figured that Bull, a steeplechase All-American, was going to be a low-stick in some capacity this fall, but she still beat expectations. Allman, meanwhile, looked closer to her 2021 and 2022 form. And Tebben? Well, she just had a huge breakout race.
That three-headed low-stick contingent that Calvin fielded is what ultimately kept them in fairly close proximity (scoring-wise) to the 2nd, 3rd and 4th place teams.
Admittedly, the drop-off after those three women was severe as their final two scorers settled for 45th and 51st place finishes. But in the grand scheme of things, those were still respectable enough effort that leave us encouraged about the potential that Calvin may have on the national stage in November.
If Bull, Allman and Tebben are going to keep running like that, then it's plenty possible that the Knights will eventually emerge as a top-10 team.
Quick Hits:
6. Washington U. Bears (121 points)
This is another team that was way better than what their final team placement may suggest. Jillian Heth (10th), Julia Patterson (17th), Abigail Patterson (21st) and Katie Rector (26th) put together a subtly-great top-four. Their fifth runner did fade to 48th, but this was a sneaky-good team performance from the Bears.
7. UW-La Crosse Eagles (149 points)
Their firepower was limited to say the least with no woman cracking the top-20. Even so, by placing all five of their scorers in the top-40 and all seven runners in the top-41, the Eagles have to have one of the highest floors of any team in Division Three this fall. It's hard to envision a team with that scoring structure truly faltering on most stages.
Individual Race
Essentially all of the top individuals from this race were also discussed in their team's analysis. That being said, Battleson-Gunkel looked exceptionally good. We may need to reevaluate our TSR #1 spot in our individual rankings after the effort she put forth.
