First Thoughts: D2 Pre-Nationals

Our Division Two and Division Three teams are hard at work, finalizing their updated team and individual rankings. While that's happening, I thought I'd dabble in some D2 analysis and offer some high-level takeaways from Saturday's D2 Pre-Nationals meet.

Let's break it all down, shall we?

CLICK HERE FOR RESULTS

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I want to first start with the women's race because I think there are a lot of unique insights that we can pull from those results.

Grass is green, the sky is blue and the Colorado Mines women are really good at this whole cross country thing. They took home the overall win on Saturday with a total score of 37 points, beating Western Colorado who were the runner-up finishers with a distant total of 88 points.

And the craziest part?

They didn't even run their key low-stick, Jenna Ramsey.

Zoe Baker (3rd) and Molly Maksin (7th) were as good as we expected them to be. Seeing them run as well as they did is hardly a surprise. However, arguably the biggest development for the Orediggers on Saturday was seeing Clare Peters, the former NC State running club standout, emerge as a true low-stick rather than a simple middle-lineup scorer.

Peters' 4th place finish was fantastic. In the absence of Jenna Ramsey, she stepped up and effectively kept the scoring structure of this lineup unchanged.

But wait, there's more!

The Orediggers also had Holly Moser throw down a huge 8th place finish! That's a tremendous result which dramatically changes the overall perception of this lineup. We've gone from thinking that the Colorado Mines women had three outstanding low-sticks and solid depth to now five true low-sticks.

And if you're not entirely sure whether or not Moser is actually a true low-stick, then I would ask you what you think of Western Colorado's Allison Beasley (9th) and Colorado Mesa's Kira MacGill (10th)? If you would consider them true low-sticks, then why would Moser not be?

The fact that Colorado Mines just defeated a very good Western Colorado team by over 50 points without one of their top scorers is so darn impressive. I don't know if I'm out of line by saying this, but the Orediggers might have five realistic All-Americans on their roster.

And if that speculation comes to fruition, then...are they better than Grand Valley State?

I'll let our D2 rankings crew determine that.

As for the Western Colorado women, they ran roughly how we expected them to.

Katie Doucette (2nd) was excellent as always, Allison Beasley (9th) cracked the top-10 to deliver on her exciting scoring potency and Leah Taylor (13th) emerged as a really promising third scorer to bring some stability to the top-half of this lineup.

The Mountaineers' fourth scorer, Gretchen Slatum (23rd), was fairly solid, although the gap in at the tail-end of this top-five, with their final scorer finishing 45th overall, is admittedly something that we thought we might see.

Taylor's emergence as a legitimate, high-quality third runner is huge. That kind of scoring value should allow the Mountaineers to remain as a top-10 team in the country. And while Slatum was a little bit further back, her recent performance at least signals that this team has slightly better scoring reinforcements than what they had last year...I think.

But unless those scoring gaps can be cut-down dramatically in the postseason, then the idea of Western Colorado being a podium contender seems fairly unlikely.

* * *

Colorado Mines and Western Colorado were plenty exciting, but in all honesty, their performances shocked no one.

But Biola? Well, I don't know what our D2 crew thought about them, but seeing them place 3rd overall on Saturday was a pleasant surprise.

Yes, John had them finishing 5th in our pre-meet predictions, so it's not like we didn't expect them to run well, but Chico State and Western Washington seemed like the deeper and most established teams.

And maybe that's our fault for putting too much emphasis on teams with more recognizable Division Two cross country brands.

After all, the Biola women were the winners at the Pomona-Pitzer XC Invitational earlier this month, taking down Division Three powerhouses Claremont-Mudd-Scripps and Pomona-Pitzer.

And yet, at the same time, we didn't really have a great perspective about how competitive this team would be against a D2-centric field coming into Saturday. And that's probably why they were predicted to be a fringe top-five team in this field.

Admittedly, the Eagles didn't have the same overwhelming firepower that we saw from Colorado Mines and Western Colorado yesterday, but their depth was fantastic.

Lynette Ruiz locked down a very solid 20th place finish while Bethany Mapes was great in her own right, earning a 26th place finish.

From there, the rest of this lineup came together in a huge way as Maggie Williams, Mia Crocker, Ellie Stetina, Grace Catena, Karis Brown, Lauren Landrith, Hannah Champness and Britta Holmberg went 37-39-40-42-48-52-54-56, respectively, in the overall results.

Does Biola have a ton of upper-tier scoring potency?

No, at least not after seeing these D2 Pre-Nationals results.

But I can't imagine a scenario where Biola has a "bad" race in the postseason. This is crazy impressive depth for a lineup that seems to be anywhere from six to 10 women deep. If one or two of those women have a bad race, then the overall scoring of this group shouldn't see a dramatic fall from grace.

With a total of 151 points, the Eagles were far from being competitive with Western Colorado (or Colorado Mines for that matter), but they did hand losses to both Chico State and Western Washington. And that's gotta be a massively encouraging development for the Biola women.

When it comes to the Chico State Wildcats, seeing them finish 4th place overall has us shrugging our shoulders and saying, "Sure, that's fine I guess". However, it's important to note that Chico State women only had five women finish the race.

The live results show Della Molina and Iresh Molina recording DNF marks while the TFRRS results show those same two women recording "Did Not Start" marks.

I don't know what actually happened, but the only thing that you actually have to know is that the Chico State women didn't have a sixth or seventh runner to utilize on Saturday.

Marissa D'Atri (14th) had a fairly strong outing, giving the Wildcats an identity somewhat near the front of this race. Meanwhile, teammates Grace Dupuis (32nd) and Hannah Tiffany (33rd) held their own to give Chico State a fairly stable top-three.

But from there, the final two Wildcat scorers finished 60th and 74th in the overall results. And compared to a team like Biola, who had 10 total women in the top-60, that backend scoring drop-off is what ultimately created a 40+ point scoring margin between the 3rd place Eagles and the 4th place Wildcats.

As for Cal State East Bay, they took the 5th place spot and were actually better than Chico State through three runners. The combination of Chase Worthen, Claire Fisher and Leza Cassidy went 19-24-28 in the overall results which was far greater scoring potency than we were expecting.

However, with their final two scorers each being 10 to 20 overall spots back from Chico State's final two scorers, the Pioneers were only able to do so much. Still, they had a solid outing and proved to have a very strong core of scorers.

* * *

Before we move to the men, let's quickly chat about the individuals in the women's field.

Coming into this race, we were very high on Alaska Fairbanks' standout Kendall Kramer. And for the most part, she still ran fairly well, finishing 6th overall. If there was any Nanook distance talent who was going to win this race, it was going to be Kramer.

That being said, we were fairly confident that Western Colorado's Katie Doucette would win this race...but that didn't happen. Instead, it was Alaska Fairbanks' runner, Naomi Bailey.

Bailey had a very solid 2021 cross country season, but faltered quite a bit on the national stage last year. And while she has been very solid so far this season, earning two 3rd place finishes coming into Saturday, nothing that we have seen from her this fall suggested that she would be taking home the overall win at this meet.

And yet, here we are.

Taking down an elite superstar like Katie Doucette, as well as a handful of other top-ranked talents, it so darn impressive. We knew that Bailey could be an upper-tier low-stick, but this is a leap to an entirely new level.

Now my only question is...can she do it again?

As for everyone else, nothing that we haven't already mentioned was too surprising, although Gianna Bomarito's 5th place finish was a huge result to validate her win in the "White" race at Paul Short last month.

We should also note that Seattle Pacific superstar, Annika Esvelt, struggled a bit on Saturday. She finished 89th overall which was an uncharacteristic "off" day for her. However, after placing 9th at the Williamette XC Invitational earlier this month, it seems like Esvelt isn't necessarily at 100% right now.

Could she rebound in the postseason? Yes, absolutely.

In fact, I probably wouldn't bet against her.

Still, it's a little surprising to see her falter in this field. I thought she would do quite well.

* * *

Alright, let's chat about the men's race.

I'll admit, there isn't quite as much to talk about from the men's race in comparison to the women's race. In our eyes, there were very few surprises in the men's results, although it's important not to mistaken unsurprising results with a lack of impressive performances.

Because there were plenty of those...and they mostly came from Colorado Mines.

We came into this season knowing that Colorado Mines was a realistic contender for the national title, although Adams State, in our eyes, was viewed as the favorite.

I'm not going to speak for our entire D2 team. They'll unveil where they think the Mines men sit in our hierarchy of teams later this week. I don't know for sure if they'll be ahead of Adams State after this weekend, but...they certainly have a very good case for it.

The Orediggers had Dillon Powell, Loic Scomparin, Duncan Fuehne, Luke Julian, Steven Goldy and Chris Cathcart go 1-2-3-5-8-9, respectively, in the overall results while freshman standout Daniel Appleford recorded a very solid 19th place finish to close out the top-seven.

That is...so impressive.

I think we knew that through three or four runners, the Orediggers were plenty capable of matching the projected firepower that Adams State was supposed to have this year -- maybe even surpass them!

However, after losing so many high-octane veteran scorers from last year, we understandably wanted to see what the latter-half of this varsity seven would look like for Colorado Mines. Would they be able to find a fifth, or even a sixth, All-American?

Well, after Saturday, they seemingly might have.

We could talk endlessly about Powell, Scomparin and Fuehne, but all you need to know is that they are really darn good. Instead, let's chat about the next three scorers in this lineup.

Veteran Luke Julian looks like he's in the best cross country shape of his career (or at least close to it), Steven Goldy has clearly taken a big step up in his fitness after a promising outdoor track campaign and through one race, Chris Cathcart looks like a completely different (and better) runner.

Those three men give Colorado Mines a legitimately elite lineup through six runners, and that's huge! Because if one runner has an "off" day at the national meet, then the Orediggers can still get by if their projected sixth runner is the All-American that their D2 Pre-Nationals performance suggested that they could be.

And if freshman ace Daniel Appleford only gets better in the postseason, which is far from guaranteed as we move up to 10,000 meters, then the overall scoring potential of this squad is very scary.

* * *

As for the other teams in this field, I can't really say I'm surprised. The Chico State men locked down a distant 2nd place team finish with 84 points while the Western Colorado men unsurprisingly finished 3rd, scoring a total of 91 points.

When it comes to the Chico State Wildcats, they were fairly strong, although their projected firepower wasn't quite as good as I thought it would be.

Rory Abberton (10th) and Jack Emanuel (11th) finished roughly where we thought they would, giving the Wildcats a potent 1-2 punch. Teammate Omar Alvarez-Hernandez (16th) continues to have the best season of his career with a really solid result of his own.

With Brayden McLaughlin in 22nd place and Daniel Hernandez in 26th place, the Chico State men were able to fend off a Western Colorado group that was slightly more top-heavy than the Wildcats, but not quite as strong on the backend.

To be clear, no one in Chico State's lineup ran poorly...but there were a couple of guys who I thought could have been just a little bit better. Brayden McLaughlin, at his best, is probably closer to the top-10 in this field and every other scorer likely could have been three to five spots better (although Alvarez-Hernandez was still pretty solid).

We also haven't seen Dylan White this season, a guy who was a 37th place All-American for the Chico State men last fall. And although that 2021 national meet result was clearly the best result on his cross country resume, having him in this lineup would likely make a significant impact if he's racing at his absolute best.

As for Western Colorado, in my opinion, they just didn't have their best day. However, when you consider that they were only seven points behind a Chico State team that we think/thought should be podium contenders, then that's actually pretty encouraging!

Simon Kelati's rise as a true low-stick was validated on Saturday thanks to his 6th place finish, a much need result for a team that seems to be somewhat limited in terms of scoring potency compared to previous years.

The Mountaineers also had Michael Grabowski place 13th overall which was roughly on par with our expectations, although I personally saw him finishing closer to 8th, 9th or 10th place. Luckily, teammate Jacob Hernandez finished 15th overall in what had to be one of the best results of his career.

But after those three men, the backend of this lineup lacked cohesion.

Albert Hesse (30th), Juan Diaz (31st), Ryan Outler (33rd), William Johnson (37th), Sean McCauley (41st) and Patrick Jirele (44th) closed out the rest of this lineup, but Hesse and Outler likely had the potential to be significantly better on Saturday.

If Hesse and Outler do run to their full potential, then this Western Colorado team actually seems to have a complete lineup through five runners.

I'm not at all saying that the Mountaineers would have been able to touch Colorado Mines. However, I do wonder that if this team can fire on all cylinders...could they be a podium contender?

They may be asking a bit too much, but they were very competitive with a Chico State team that, as of today, is ranked at TSR #4 in our top-10 teams list.

* * *

Admittedly, I can't really say much about the rest of these results.

Cole Nash's 4th place finish was somewhat expected and although Charlie Dannatt is viewed as more of a middle distance runner on the track, his 7th place result wasn't too far off from the 10th place spot where John predicted he would land.

And given how dominant the Colorado Mines men were in this field, you can't say that any other top-10 finisher produced a shocking result.

When it comes to the other teams in this field, we listed eight men's teams on our Instagram graphic who we believed would be among the most competitive lineups in this field. And when you take a look at the results, all eight teams that we showed on that graphic ended up finishing in the top-eight.

Really nice efforts by Western Washington (4th) and Cal Poly Pomona (5th). They had a great scoring balance by having a true front-runner in the top-20 and then tons of solid supporting depth behind them.

In theory, that lineup structure should limit both of those teams from having any poor races in the postseason...right?