Four Things To Watch: D2 Pre-Nationals

John Cusick
Oct 21, 2022
13 min read

Edits and additional commentary by Garrett Zatlin

D2 Pre-Nationals is one of the biggest cross country races of the year! Below, we opted to break down some of the best individual talents and teams who will be toeing the line on Saturday for what should be a fantastic race.

Let's get started...

A Big Opportunity For The Western Colorado Men & Women

The headline explains itself, but this is a huge race for the Mountaineer men and women.

Coming into this season, both the Western Colorado men and women were ranked inside the top-10 of our team rankings. Since then, the men have fallen out of that top-10 while the women are currently ranked at TSR #7.

Starting with the women, it’s nice to see that Katie Doucette (TSR #3) and Allison Beasley are going to race. We have seen them in a couple of dual meets against Colorado Mesa, but neither of those races actually gave us any insight as to how they might perform against an elite field with an overwhelming amount of entrants.

But for the most part, we already know how talented Doucette and Beasley are. Their past accolades and ongoing success suggest that they'll be among the best women in this field.

However, outside of those two women, there are a lot of unknowns about how the rest of this Western Colorado team will perform in a larger field.

Most recently, at the Gig Leadbetter Stampede, we saw WCU runners Leah Taylor and Emma Berg serve as the third and fourth scorers for the Mountaineers in what was an easy 1-2-3-4 sweep for the RMAC powerhouse.

It’s probably safe to assume that Taylor and Berg will be the key middle-lineup contributors who Western Colorado will lean on this Saturday. However, their ability to run together and limit excessive scoring will be absolutely critical, especially since there is plenty of uncertainty after those two women.

Gretchen Slattum is the other experienced runner on this team. Her ability to serve as a scorer for this group will be essential for the Mountaineer’s success this weekend and for the rest of the season. She doesn't need to blow her competition out of the water, she just needs to bring some scoring stability to this lineup.

We also need to keep our eyes on Dulce Carlos, Olivia Kaiser and Emma Kjellsen. All three of those women are seemingly interchangeable right now. With none of them having much major racing experience, it’s going to be incredibly important to see how they perform on Saturday.

And yet, at the same time, that youth and untapped potential could also lead to a handful of thrilling results on one the biggest regular season stages that Division Two has to offer.

As for the men's team, they will also be putting out their best lineup on Saturday.

The loss of Cade Michael was a big reason why we had ranked this team at TSR #10 during the preseason as we didn’t quite know what to expect from the rest of this squad in 2022. The return of Michael Grabowski and Albert Hesse has certainly helped steady things, but neither of those men is the more important name for Western Colorado this Saturday.

Simon Kelati has been the best runner for this team in 2022, even if he's only accrued two victories in two small dual meets. His performance this weekend could establish the trajectory of this team for the rest of the season.

Kelati is known for his middle distance prowess more than anything else, thriving in the mile and 1500 meter distances. He does hold a 14:39 personal best in the 5000 meters (which converts to 14:18), but it's clear that this Western Colorado runner still had to take the next step of being a truly nationally competitive runner, especially on the grass.

But so far this season, it looks like Kelati has (potentially) earned the right to be the focal point of this squad. We'll need to see if that's actually the case on Saturday, but he's been producing some encouraging results so far this fall.

When you combine Kelati's newfound fitness with the return of Grabowski and Hesse, you’ve got a nice scoring trio that can lead this team in this kind of field. The Mountaineers should be vying for a top-three team finish this weekend and these three men will likely set the tone for who they can (and can't) beat.

As for the rest of this lineup, there are some really promising names who will look to support Western Colorado's lethal scoring trio throughout the rest of the season.

Ryan Outler is another “middle distance” athlete who has excelled this season. He has emerged as the second and fourth scorer for this team in his first two races.

Outler was racing at a similar level last season (early-on) before faltering towards the end of the fall months. This will be a good measuring stick for him against a strong field and his performance will likely make or break this team in the larger picture for this season.

Jacob Hernandez, William Johnson and Jackson Schwartz all have previous experience in high-pressure situations, making them very good options for the backend of this team. It’s admittedly hard to gauge their early-season results so far, but we are encouraged about what we've seen from them headed into this weekend.

Just How Strong Will The Colorado Mines Men Look?

This feels like a silly question in the grand scheme of things because it sounds like we're questioning the competitiveness of this team (we're not). We know that Colorado Mines is an outstanding team, we just want to see how good they'll be on Saturday.

Yes, the Orediggers come into this meet ranked as our TSR #2 team and boast multiple TSR-ranked individuals in their scoring lineup, but there are a few minor questions that we have for the backend of this lineup.

Dillon Powell (TSR #3) is the favorite to win this race and for most of the other races that he toes the line for. Loic Scomparin (TSR #17) and Duncan Fuehne (TSR #18) are also expected to finish toward the front of this race, each showing us on multiple occasions that they're some of the better distance talents in the country.

While we are interested in how those three men will fare in Saturday's field, it’s not their results that we are the most focused on.

Instead, we'll be monitoring Max Sevcik and Luke Julian who each have national meet experience, something that is a huge positive for this team going into tomorrow.

Sevcik once raced for the Orediggers on the national stage back in 2019 and was part of their national title-winning team. He's had one or two cross country races since then, but his presence on the grass has largely been very limited.

Sevcik was a depth piece in 2019, but his recent outdoor track campaign suggests that he could be better than what his past cross country performances suggest.

We also know how good Luke Julian has been in recent years and we are expecting much of the same from him in 2022.

Julian's current fitness level is likely one of the bigger questions that we have entering this weekend. We're not questioning if he's in shape (he almost certainly is), but we just don't know how in shape he is.

Is he at an All-American level right now? A top-half All-American level? If it's the latter, then he could be the dark horse in this lineup who puts the Orediggers over the top and allows them to be more competitive with Adams State in the postseason than we are currently expecting them to be.

Chris Cathcart, Steven Goldy, John O’Malley, Andrew Kaye and Daniel Appleford are the other runners for the Orediggers on Saturday. Of those five men, Cathcart is the only one with any national experience in cross country.

Appleford, however, was a star at the high school level, running 8:52 for 3200 meters and 14:44 for 5000 meters on the grass. We'll be fascinated to see how he handles this field, especially since Coach Chris Siemers typically redshirts some of his true freshmen.

In our eyes, Appleford not being redshirted could be a signal that Siemers believes that he'll be a high-impact piece on Saturday and in the postseason.

With this scoring lineup mostly set, the performance of these five backend runners is incredibly interesting. Outside of Cathcart, all of these men were either left off the Orediggers' 2021 national meet lineup or just not even on the team to begin with.

Podium Contenders & Teams On The Rise

This headline is directed at multiple teams from whom we'd like to see strong performances on Saturday. This is arguably the D2 season's biggest test and performing well here will surely help boost a team's resume for getting into the postseason.

We'll start with the strongest team on the women's side. Coming into this meet as our TSR #3 squad, the Colorado Mines women are the clear favorites to take home the team title.

While we have already seen this team race at the Roadrunners Invitational, there's still plenty of questions that can be answered this weekend.

The biggest question is simple: Just how good are the Orediggers?

The Mines women have a chance to make a statement with a strong team showing on Saturday. Zoe Baker (TSR #10), Jenna Ramsey (TSR #11) and Molly Maksin (TSR #18) will lead this team when it comes to low-stick scoring. Their success will determine the floor for this team moving forward.

However, the ceiling for the Orediggers relies on the performances of Clare Peters, Holly Moser, Alex Raichart and Alayna Szuch. Those four distance talents have the potential to be a really strong backend scoring group, but before we can actually call them that, we want to see how they fare on a stage that is unlike anything that they've faced at their current level of fitness.

Peters has never run at the NCAA level in a high-leverage situation. And while she did place 5th in her only showing as a Colorado Mines athlete, that's not enough to convince us she'll do that against stronger competition.

Still, there is at least enough past success to suggest that Peters will be the main driver of success for Colorado Mines on Saturday. On a perfect day, she could be closer to being a low-stick than a backend scorer.

Moser and Szuch were the fourth and fifth scorers for the Orediggers at the 2021 NCAA XC Championships, making their experience incredibly valuable. If those two women, alongside with Peters, race to their full capabilities, then the Oredigger women will be incredibly tough to beat.

We also need to highlight the Chico State men and women who have been really impressive this season. We saw both of their squads run well last weekend at the Santa Clara Bronco Invitational. The men were dominant, taking home the team title, while the women knocked off our TSR #8 team, Stanislaus State, en route to a 7th place team finish.

I’m incredibly interested in seeing how these teams compare to some of the best distance programs in the country. The men look like a legitimate top-five team in Division Two right now with how they have been running so far this season.

I’m also curious to see how Omar Alvarez-Hernandez and Jack Emanuel look against some of the best Division Two competition who they’ll see this regular season.

Meanwhile, the question surrounding the Chico State women is similar to that of Colorado Mines -- just how good are they? We'll likely find out this weekend as they go up against some formidable teams.

Battling the likes of Western Colorado and Colorado Mines will be a good measuring stick for the Chico State women and it should give us a good gauge of what to expect from this team for the rest of the season.

Without the same kind of firepower as those two powerhouses, the Wildcats are clearly at a disadvantage, but we'll see how good their depth is this weekend.

The Wildcat women boasted a 22-second time-spread at the Santa Clara Bronco Invitational and that kind of cohesive team racing will theoretically work well for them at Pre-Nationals this weekend.

Being able to race like that consistently would make Chico State a team to watch moving forward. If their scoring-five is strong enough, they can take down those with better firepower. Is that something we might see this weekend?

We highlighted the Western Washington men a couple of weekends ago when they attended the Lewis Crossover. And as we head into this weekend, we want to highlight them again.

The Vikings finished 3rd as a team at the Lewis Crossover and while that’s a promising result, this weekend will tell us more about their team dynamic and good they can actually be. They raced some strong teams at Lewis Crossover, but no one they faced in that field resembles the caliber of competition that Colorado Mines or Chico State will offer this weekend.

Kevin McDermott has been incredibly consistent and has emerged as the top runner for the Vikings so far this season. Can he continue that trend at Pre-Nationals? The Vikings' success relies heavily on his performance, but we think he'll deliver yet again.

Andrew Oslin had a sub-par performance at Lewis Crossover and you could argue that Jeret Gillingham has underperformed so far this season, including that Lewis Crossover effort. If these two get back on track, then Western Washington's potential dramatically improves.

The Cal Poly Pomona men are another team that we had high hopes for during the preseason.

So far this season, they’ve looked as advertised with a 4th place team finish at the Cougar Challenge (third D2 team) and then a 2nd place team finish at the Pomona-Pitzer XC Invitational.

Leandro Candray has been very impressive in his two outings with top-10 finishes, including a runner-up finish at the Pomona-Pitzer meet. How he handles this field will ultimately determine where the Broncos finish as a team on the weekend.

Ricardo Vargas has been the only other consistent runner for Cal Poly Pomona this season as he’s been the third scorer for the Broncos in both of their true challenges this fall.

But while Candray and Vargas are two strong scoring options, the rest of this team is mostly undecided.

Vincent Sarino, Francisco Zavaleta, Daniel Echeveste, Thomas McDonnell and Gideon Pichardo have been part of this varsity lineup in each of those two aforementioned meets and they have the chance to solidify their roles within this team on Saturday.

I'll admit, I’m not sure how high up this team will finish this weekend, but at the very least, we will see if Cal Poly Pomona is a team worth monitoring over the next six weeks (ish).

Who Will Win The Individual Titles?

The race for the individual title will be extremely fun on Saturday. This is some of the best top-tier racing that we have seen this season as far as individuals are concerned.

Katie Doucette is the favorite to win the women’s race (we think), but the competition that she will face on her way to that theoretical gold will certainly test her.

We've only seen this Mountaineer star race twice this season and both efforts were dual meets against Colorado Mesa. Even so, Doucette's stock has risen considerably over the last year and this is her true first test in terms of validating that momentum on the grass.

Of course, Oredigger harriers Zoe Baker (TSR #10) and Jenna Ramsey (TSR #11) will have something to say about being the best runner in this field.

Ramsey took home the victory at the Roadrunner's Invitational with Baker behind her. The Orediggers' season hangs on how well these women run in a race of this nature. A strong performance this weekend would leave us more confident about their postseason hopes.

Molly Maksin (TSR #18) joins her Colorado Mines teammates in this field. We view her with an outside chance of taking home this individual title. She has been impressive over her last year of racing, but we can't say she has the same firepower as some of her opponents...yet.

Annika Esvelt (TSR #14) of Seattle Pacific is the next name in our rankings who has a legitimate shot at this individual title. However, in terms of gauging her current fitness, she's only competed at the Williamette XC Invitational this season where she finished 9th in a mostly-Division One field.

It will be good to see Esvelt toeing the line against women who she is expected to be competitive with in the postseason (i.e. the national stage). A good showing on Saturday would go a long way in our terms of our overall seasonal valuation of Esvelt.

Kira MacGill (Colorado Mesa) is another name to keep an eye on. MacGill secured an early victory over Doucette earlier this season, albeit from a wrong turn, but her effort was impressive nonetheless.

The Alaska Fairbanks' duo of Kendall Kramer and Naomi Bailey have also run well this season. Of course, their recent efforts have been against mild competition, so this will likely be their strongest test of the season before the West Regional XC Championships nearly a month from now.

On the men's side of this race, Dillon Powell (TSR #3) is the favorite for this individual title on Saturday...and it's probably hard to argue otherwise.

This will be the first time that we've seen Powell on the grass since his DNF result at the cross country national meet last season, but there's no doubt in our minds that he's eager to remind everyone of how good he is.

Everyone knows what Powell has accomplished since that notorious DNF result. The only thing left for him to do is win to a national title on the grass. Saturday is the first step towards doing that here in 2022.

But for as good as Powell is, we are probably the most excited to see Alaska Anchorage's ace Cole Nash (TSR #11) compete in this field.

Nash doesn't quite get the same love as the rest of the country. That's partly because his success has come against limited competition and partly because he races in the northwest portion of the country.

A strong race against the some of the country's best runners would make his case even stronger for being a potential top-10 finish at the national meet and it would likely give him more attention, nationally.

Loic Scomparin (TSR #18) and Duncan Fuehne (TSR #19) will join Powell this weekend in the Orediggers scoring rotation. We don't have much to say about these two as they have yet to race this season, but there's no question that we expect them to be towards the front of this race.

But outlasting their superstar teammate? Well, there's far greater uncertainty there.

The last of our ranked individuals in this field is Jack Emanuel (TSR #22).

The Chico State veteran has proven that he's capable of maneuvering a strong field already this season. He has a chance to prove that he's an elite low-stick, but a big performance on Saturday would do wonders for how we value his season-long consistency.

Of course, there are other names who we should also keep an eye on.

Charlie Dannatt (Simon Fraser) is off to a strong start on the grass in 2022. He placed 6th at the WWU Bil Roe Classic and just won the San Francisco State Invitational. He's far from being the title favorite, but his strong showings early-on make me curious as to how he'll look against elite distance talents on Saturday.

Kevin McDermott (Western Washington) was 7th at the Lewis Crossover and has been a consistent top runner for the Vikings. Expect him to be in the top group throughout this race.

Benjamin White (Biola) just won the Pomona-Pitzer XC Invitational over Leandro Candray (Cal Poly Pomona) and was the third Division Two athlete across the line at the UC Riverside XC Invitational.

After this meet, we'll get an indication of whether or not he's a nationally competitive runner at this level after transferring from the Division Three realm this past summer.

FINAL PREDICTIONS

Teams (Men)

Colorado Mines Orediggers
Chico State Wildcats
Western Colorado Mountaineers
Western Washington Vikings
Simon Fraser Red Leafs

Individuals (Men)

Dillon Powell (Colorado Mines)
Cole Nash (Alaska Anchorage)
Loic Scomparin (Colorado Mines)
Jack Emanuel (Chico State)
Duncan Fuehne (Colorado Mines)
Leandro Candray (Cal Poly Pomona)
Omar Alvarez-Hernandez (Chico State)
Kevin McDermott (Western Washington)
Simon Kelati (Western Colorado)
Charlie Dannatt (Simon Fraser)

Teams (Women)

Colorado Mines Orediggers
Western Colorado Mountaineers
Chico State Wildcats
Western Washington Vikings
Biola Eagles

Individuals (Women)

Katie Doucette (Western Colorado)
Jenna Ramsey (Colorado Mines)
Annika Esvelt (Seattle Pacific)
Zoe Baker (Colorado Mines)
Molly Maksin (Colorado Mines)
Kendall Kramer (Alaska Fairbanks)
Kira MacGill (Colorado Mesa)
Lynette Ruiz (Biola)
Allison Beasley (Western Colorado)
Naomi Bailey (Alaska Fairbanks)