First Thoughts: 2023 D3 Pre-Nationals

Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Oct 8, 2023
10 min read

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Believe it or not, the Lewis XC Crossover wasn't the only major regular season meet happening this past weekend. That's because on Saturday, we saw an outstanding battle in Carlisle, Pennsylvania as many of the nation's most established and unrelenting cross country squads toed the line to battle at D3 Pre-Nationals. Below, we offered some insight and analysis on each of the team results...

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Women's Analysis

1. Claremont-Mudd-Scripps Athenas (51 points)

The general consensus among our TSR writers coming into this weekend was that the Claremont-Mudd-Scripps women were going to outperform their rank and be a fairly competitive team, potentially sneaking into the runner-up spot.

However, I don't think any of us expected the Athenas to not only win, but ultimately dominate a VERY good field.

Natalie Bitetti (2nd) was unsurprisingly excellent, but it was Elle Marsyla (5th) who continues to emerge as a major breakout name this fall. That's a big development for a squad that certainly wanted to welcome more firepower next to Bitetti in 2023.

TSR was also confident that the CMS women would collect some pieces of their lineup and field some respectable depth, but the latter part of this scoring group was just straight-up better than we thought they would be.

Riley Capuano (13th) is a quietly underrated name and Angela Gushue (14th) is beginning to pick up some encouraging momentum when you look at her last few races. With Laura Zimmer placing 18th and Sara Wexler not far behind in 23rd place, the Athenas ultimately fielded a much more complete and balanced lineup than what we were expecting.

When it comes to performances like these, I usually want to remain cautious and not overreact. But the Athenas' performance on Saturday was void of any flaws and depending on who you ask, it seems fair to suggest that this group can be legitimate contenders (and maybe favorites) for the podium.

2. MIT Engineers (99 points)

You could argue that the MIT women were probably viewed as the favorites coming into this race. And for the most part, they still ran well enough to be competitive with many of the top teams in this field. However, I think it's also fair to say that multiple women in their lineup didn't have their best races.

Gillian Roeder (4th) was fantastic as always, giving her team a strong low-stick star to rally around. We also saw Lexi Fernandez (11th) produce a very solid result of her own, although we certainly knew she was capable of that.

But after those two, gaps began to form for the Engineers that simply couldn't be plugged. Christina Crow (24th) and Heather Jensen (30th) had solid outings, but the MIT women needed their entire backend scoring group to finish within the top-20 to be competitive with CMS. The team's final scorer was Kate Sanderson in 34th place.

Sanderson is someone who TSR is very high on. We believe fully in her abilities as long as she is at 100%. And although she didn't have her best race on Saturday, her early-season performances suggest that she could have been a top-10, or at least a top-15, name this past weekend.

Kirsi Rajagopal also returned to this lineup, but she faded to 91st place. That's her first race of the season which makes it difficult to determine if that was just a fluke or not. But as far as her actual talent is concerned, Rajagopal proved this past spring that she is way better than that.

So yes, Claremont-Mudd-Scripps did get the better of the Engineers. However, it still seems clear to me that MIT has much more scoring potency that they can offer in future races.

3. Williams Ephs (118 points)

I can't say that we're too surprised by this result. This is pretty much on par with our expectations. Honestly, the 3rd, 4th and 5th place teams in this field largely didn't produce anything stunning.

Genna Girard (1st) took home a convincing win like we thought she would and Ella Ball (7th) continues to be a very underrated and highly valuable secondary scorer...but then the gaps began to form after her.

Morgan Eigel (33rd) had a decent race, but Molly Fitzgibbons (35th) is certainly capable of more. Let's not forget that the Ephs' standout was a top-20 All-American last fall and has run 10:30 in the steeplechase. At her best, she is comfortably a top-10 name in this field.

Nora Johnson (48th) closed out the scoring, but by that point, Williams just didn't have nearly enough support to keep pace with an MIT team that also left points on the table.

Admittedly, Fitzgibbons has gotten off to a quieter start this season, leaving her team with one less true low-stick to help Williams stand out in these kinds of races. The good news is that she is still emerging as a scorer and she has a month to rally.

I would also argue Lucy Gagnon can be better than what she showed and Eigel has some youth-based upside that could make her sneaky-dangerous in the postseason.

No, I don't think the Williams women left as many points on the table as MIT, but I do think an improved team effort is very much possible for the Ephs as we dive deeper into the season. And for a program that just took down Amherst and George Fox (comfortably), that has to leave some level of confidence.

4. Amherst Mammoths (181 points)

Yep, this result is pretty on par for Amherst.

Sylvan Wold (16th) and Julia Schor (28th) both had solid outings, stepping up as lead scorers in the absence of numerous now-departed veterans. Claire Callon (38th), Allison Lounsbury (48th) and Daphne Witherell (60th) rounded out the scoring while Bella Lozier (61st) offered a solid sixth runner who added insurance.

We weren't expecting the Mammoths to have a ton of firepower this fall and this past weekend seemingly validated that suspicion. Even so, you have to give this Amherst team credit. They lost a number of highly-important scorers from their lineup last year and have found a way to remain plenty competitive.

Also, Wold deserves a lot of credit for making a significant boost in her fitness this fall.

5. George Fox Bruins (182 points)

I really like this George Fox team. They're largely no different than Amherst when it comes to their lineup structure, but there are some high-potential names on this roster.

Kayla Aalpoel (9th) is someone who TSR likes a lot. She had a nice effort on Saturday, but I think many of us at The Stride Report would agree that she was favored to be a top-five name in a field like this.

Regardless, the Bruins should still be fairly happy with how they ran in Carlisle, Pennsylvania. Ellie Rising (29th) was a respectable secondary scorer while Sarah Pullen (43rd), Brenna Sclair (52nd) and Breanna Schmitt (56th). Truthfully, the only difference between this team and Amherst is that George Fox had a better low-stick, but the Mammoths had a stronger group of middle-lineup scorers.

In my mind, Brenna Sclair can be a more impactful scorer moving forward. She won the 2022 NWC XC Championships last fall and has a 17:12 (5k) PR. No, she won't change the entire complexion of this team, but she's a secret weapon who may have some untapped scoring potential remaining within her.

Quick Hits

WPI's Grace Hadley (3rd) is going to be a problem in the postseason for her opponents. She was excellent and very much validated our thoughts that she was going to translate her track success to the grass. Don't sleep on this distance talent who is only beginning to realize her full potential -- she may have more upside within her.

Olivia Pisacano (6th), Allison Sibold (8th), Katie Cline (10th) and Rebecca Markham (12th) should all be very proud of how they ran. Prior to this season, most of these women had modest success, but this could be argued as a breakout race for pretty much everyone who I just highlighted.

Men's Analysis

1. MIT Engineers (71 points)

If you asked a variety of Division Three cross country fans who the pre-race favorites were coming into this weekend, I think you would have gotten a variety of answers. From my perspective (which isn't necessarily a reflection of our D3 writers), I felt like Pomona-Pitzer, MIT and Williams were all in the contention to secure gold on Saturday.

However, it was also fair if anyone had doubts about the Engineers as they ventured to Pennsylvania. They looked fairly underwhelming in an early-season matchup with Williams and Sam Acquaviva didn't seem to be quite as sharp as we thought he would be.

Of course, the MIT men looked like a much more refined squad at D3 Pre-Nationals, fielding four runners who all ran like they could be All-Americans in November (to varying extents).

Lowell Hensgen (5th) arguably had the best race of his career, Vedang Lad (7th) delivered on our preseason expectations for him, Sam Acquaviva (13th) still provided great value despite not being in top-tier form and Henry Hardart (14th), for the most part, looks just as good as he did last fall.

That quartet of scorers was excellent, although a drop-off to their fifth man, Pablo Arroyo (32nd), wasn't exactly a great development for a team that is trying to defend their national title (although generally speaking, Arroyo had a respectable day).

Fair questions about MIT's depth remain, but there is still a core of very potent firepower on this roster that is going to make this team very difficult to shake in the postseason.

2. Williams Ephs (86 points)

Here's a hot take: Williams ran better than MIT did despite finishing runner-up.

At D3 Pre-Nationals, the Ephs had a top-four scoring group that was noticeably better than what MIT boasted -- and the Engineers' top-four was already excellent!

John Lucey (2nd) proved that he could be a legitimately elite distance talent in Division Three, taking that next step from "great" to "outstanding". He was flanked by sophomore Nikhil DeNatale (4th), a prized recruit from the Class of 2022 who is living up to expectations.

But wait, there's more! That lethal 1-2 scoring punch was complemented by Charles Namiot (12th) and Nate Lentz (15th), two men who beautifully translated their success from the outdoor track season to the grass.

Through four out of five scorers, the Ephs were actually beating MIT by six points. However, the Ephs' fifth man faded all the way back to 53rd place, a chasm of a gap that made it seem like the Engineers were comfortably the better team.

But in actuality, the NESCAC powerhouse was stronger through 80% of their scoring core.

Williams and MIT share a commonality in that they are top-four heavy, but lack national-caliber depth. However, the Ephs have a more potent top-four while the Engineers are a bit better at the backend of their top-five.

And in a larger field such as this, the latter is usually going to win out.

3. RPI Engineers (103 points)

Great run by the RPI men who seemed primed to give a handful of teams some challenges this past weekend. Their lineup structure was very similar to that of MIT and Williams, except the New Jersey-based Engineers had three lead scorers instead of four.

Cory Kennedy (3rd) was unsurprisingly a true star, Vince Simonetti (9th) is taking advantage of the incredible momentum that he built during the spring and Mitchell Dailey (16th) continues to offer very underrated scoring value.

The rest of RPI's lineup was by no means bad -- Jonathan Craun (33rd) and Jack Loughery (42nd) were actually fairly respectable backend contributors -- but the Engineers couldn't match the potency of MIT and Williams' top scorers.

I don't have much more to say about a team that was good, maybe even great, but not necessarily amazing. However, be sure to keep an eye on Jason Gibbons who finished 50th overall on Saturday. He ran 8:19 (3k) and 14:18 (5k) earlier this year and likely has enough talent to emerge as a scorer for this team later in the season.

4. Pomona-Pitzer Sagehens (138 points)

For a team that was viewed as a legitimate threat for the D3 national title this fall, Saturday was not the kind of result that you wanted to see from the Sagehens.

The Pomona-Pitzer men just flat-out didn't have a good day. Cameron Hatler (10th) had one of his better races and Ian Horsburgh (20th) at least held his own. However, Lucas Florsheim (23rd) struggled after being considered a threat for the individual win. Jack Stein (30th) put together a nice effort, but Derek Fearon (55th) was too far back as the team's final scorer.

Florsheim and Fearon are both high-end All-American talents, but they just weren't at their best this past weekend. It also doesn't help that Pomona-Pitzer had to travel from the complete opposite coast and didn't have a top talent in Colin Kirkpatrick in this race.

Are the Sagehens better than what they showed at D3 Pre-Nationals? Yes, almost definitely, but they'll need a big rebound race or a series of strong postseason efforts to put them back in the national title, and maybe even podium, conversation.

5. George Fox Bruins (158 points)

Really encouraging performance from the George Fox men. They'll likely be overshadowed by the top-four teams in this field, but they put together a very solid lineup that may not have been super flashy, but it was still very effective.

The emergence of Peter Weiss (8th) as a low-stick is huge. He was great throughout the latter-half of the 2022-2023 academic calendar, but this is certainly one of his better results that he has produced.

However, more impressively, the middle-lineup group of Alex Mills (25th), Austin Gappa (28th) and Adam Petersen (37th) offered quietly great stability, limiting gaps and keeping things fairly competitive with many of the top support scorers in the country. Gavin Grass (60th) and Andrew Ross (63rd) would close out the lineup at the fifth and sixth positions.

At the end of the day, the Bruins just don't have as much upfront talent as the four teams that we have already spoken about -- but that's ok, very few do. This is a pretty sturdy scoring group with not many deficiencies. I wouldn't sleep on George Fox in the postseason.

6. Claremont-Mudd-Scripps Stags (188 points)

The Claremont-Mudd-Scripps men had an "okay" day at D3 Pre-Nationals. In fact, you could probably even say that it was a "decent" day for the Stags. Even so, I'm not sure if we really learned anything new about this team over the weekend.

The combination of Mason Ratkovich, Oliver Pick, Nicholas Taubenheim, Andrew Blelloch and Hayden Beauchemin posted finishes of 17-24-41-49-57, respectively. The addition of Ratkovich from UCLA is huge for a team that lost Henry Pick from last year's team. His brother, Oliver Pick, seems to also be making progress as well.

The Stags should feel good knowing that Adam Sage (92nd) is due for a much better performance in the future. He was, after all, the 75th place finisher at last year's national meet. I'm not sure how much of a difference he would have made in the final team standings, but he is certainly a name to keep on your radar when evaluating Claremont-Mudd-Scripps.

Quick Hits

Gosh, it's so hard to dislike Simon Heys. The Wilmington (OH) star looked really strong early in the season, but to see him actually pull through to earn a monumental win at D3 Pre-Nationals validates the suspicions that TSR had of him being "elite" rather than just "really good."

Very underrated 6th place finish from Jeff Joseph of Mount Union. He had a series of great regular season efforts last fall, but you could argue that this is the best performance that he's ever had across any season. Now he just needs to replicate that kind of performance on a championship stage.

Miles Takiguchi posted a sneaky-good 11th place result in Carlisle this past weekend. He's been a solid talent for a few seasons now, but this is a clear step up for the Vassar distance runner.