Camel City Elite Preview & Predictions

Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Feb 3, 2022
15 min read

Updated: Feb 3, 2022

This weekend is primed to be yet another fast one for any and all distance events around the country. While a handful of marquee meets headline the weekend, it's the Camel City Elite meet in Winston-Salem, North Carolina that could produce some of the best headlines as it does every year.

Here are all of the distance races to watch out for at the JDL Fast Track this weekend...

Butler Leads Collegiate Women On The Brink of a Breakout

When it comes to the women's 800 meters, Virginia Tech's Lindsey Butler is the class of the collegiates in this field. She has run 2:01 for 800 meters before, has taken down top-tier names in this exact event, has displayed quietly strong middle distance range and has had extensive success on the national stage.

In a race that features Adidas pro Ajee Wilson, there is high potential that this race could become very fast. That, combined with the fact that all of the NCAA women in this field will receive a flat-track conversion, leads us to believe that Butler could be your new NCAA #1 in the women's 800 meters after this weekend.

Butler, however, is just one piece of the puzzle as far as the collegiates in this field are concerned.

Isabella Giesing (UMass Lowell), Valery Tobias (Texas) and Megan Marvin (Furman) are all strong and accomplished 800 meter talents who are seemingly on the verge of a breakout race in the 800 meters.

Giesing, for instance, ran 2:05 last weekend, but owns a personal best of 2:04 for the distance. Meanwhile, Tobias has been slowly chipping away at her 800 meter PR this year and has since brought it down to 2:05. As for Furman's Megan Marvin, she has run 2:04 for 800 meters on the outdoor oval and after a big mile PR of 4:42 from the other weekend, she should be primed for another great performance.

In the grand scheme of things, the women who will thrive the most in this race will be the ones who are unfazed by the top-tier talent around them. Giesing and Marvin both advanced to the finals of women's 800 meters at last spring's East Regional Championships and both own similar 800 meter and mile personal bests. As for Tobias, she has been incredibly consistent in this half-mile event, but is still looking for that true breakout race.

There isn't a lone differentiating factor that separates these three women, but that could very well change after this weekend...

PREDICTIONS (only collegiates, not converted):

Lindsey Buter (Virginia Tech) -- 2:02
Isabella Giesing (UMass Lowell) -- 2:04
Megan Marvin (Furman) -- 2:05
Valery Tobias (Texas) -- 2:06

Bizimana vs Anthony vs Doyle in Elite Men's 800 Meters

The men's 800 meters at Camel City Elite is going to be an absolute thriller. With the professional athletes in this field being Clayton Murphy and Alex Amankwa, this race is set to be VERY fast and it could potentially lead to a new NCAA #1 time in the men's 800 meters.

The top collegiate in this field is probably Texas' Yusuf Bizimana. The dynamic middle distance talent emerged as an All-American threat at last year's indoor and outdoor national meets, placing 8th and 7th, respectively, in the men's 800 meters.

With blistering speed of 1:46 for 800 meters and 3:57 mile strength, this race suits Bizimana incredibly well. He should be able to hang with an aggressive pace and take advantage of the professional athletes in this field who could eventually drag him to a fast time.

It feels crazy to say that Bizimana's 1:48 effort from the other weekend was a "quiet" event opener, but given his past results, that doesn't seem inaccurate, either. Expect this Texas star to make a statement this weekend in a loaded pro field after finishing as a backend All-American last year despite his goals being loftier than that.

As for Seb Anthony, the newest Virginia Tech middle distance ace has a very good chance of giving Bizimana a run for his money. Anthony is plenty familiar with this track and few men in the NCAA may be primed for a bigger performance than him.

Armed with a personal best of 1:48, Anthony's recent performances suggest that he is due for something bigger and better. He's run 8:11 for 3000 meters this season, which is a surprising display of endurance. He's also coming off of a monster 2:20 effort for 1000 meters on his home track.

In that 1k race, Anthony showed an incredible amount of control as he effectively covered moves and pulled away from a field which included Antonio Lopez Segura who also finished with a time of 2:20.

If you're looking for an upset pick this weekend, then Anthony taking down Bizimana may be the prediction to make. Although, full disclaimer, I'm a Virginia Tech alum, so there may be some bias there...

The other collegiate to keep an eye on in this field is Timothy Doyle, the North Florida standout who has run 1:47 for 800 meters and 3:42 for 1500 meters.

This Osprey star had a HUGE breakout season last spring, dropping substantial time off of his personal bests and emerging as one of the biggest middle distance threats on the east coast. However, Doyle's inexperience caught up to him in the postseason as he failed to make it out of the prelims at the East Regional Championships.

There is no doubt that Doyle is talented, but there are still too many unknowns and too many cautionary aspects about his resume to have a good idea about how he will perform this weekend. He ran a 4:11 personal best in the mile earlier this season, which is fine, but it's not anywhere near his 3:42 personal best for 1500 meters.

Of course, when Doyle faced-off against a loaded 800 field last spring, which featured Waleed Suliman, he thrived in that setting and ran a huge time. Could the same thing happen here in a loaded 800 meter field of top professionals and collegiates? It's certainly possible...

As for Texas' Brendan Hebert, this guy is due for a breakout race. He's run 1:49 for 800 meters outdoors, just ran 1:50 for 800 meters indoors and owns a mile PR of 4:00. Hebert has been running around those marks for a LONG time. In fact, he has run 1:50 (between both seasons) five different times throughout his career. He's also run 4:05 (or faster) four separate times in the mile.

In a field like this, Hebert will certainly be dragged to a top time, or least one that would be faster than his 1:49 personal best. He's been on the fringe of a top-tier time for a while and this could be the race where he really breaks out, even if he doesn't finish that highly.

Also, be on the lookout for Lee's Titus Lagat. The men's 800 meters at the D2 level just got a massive revamp after Clement Paillon ran 1:48 last weekend. However, in a meet that Lagat has contested before, he'll surely be in good position to run a converted sub-1:50 as long as he fights and doesn't let the field swallow him up.

PREDICTIONS (only collegiates, not converted):

Seb Anthony (Virginia Tech) -- 1:48
Yusuf Bizimana (Texas) -- 1:48
Brendan Herbert (Texas) -- 1:48
Tim Doyle (North Florida) -- 1:50
Titus Lagat (Lee (Tenn.)) -- 1:52

Bush Aims For Fast Mile, Will Battle Leather, Richards & Co.

The women's mile field at the Camel City Elite meet could be incredibly fast this weekend. The field features top-tier pros such as recent NC State graduate Elly Henes as well as Olympian Rachel Schneider and Hoka One One's Emily Richards.

Those names alone make this field incredibly fast.

However, as far as the collegiates go, NC State's Sam Bush is the one to watch.

After a great cross country season, Bush has somehow gotten even better. A huge 8:54 mark for 3000 meters during her season opener, as well as a statement 1000 meter performance of 2:43 from two weekends ago make Bush a potential major threat in the mile this weekend.

In theory, Bush is primed for a major breakout race in the mile. Her 4:47 mile PR is fine, but this is someone who could probably run under 4:35 before the flat-track conversion. Barring a total collapse, I don't see Bush not emerging as the top collegiate in this race

The two key names who could potentially keep things close with Bush are Ellie Leather (Cincinnati) and Kaley Richards (UMass Lowell). These are two highly experienced milers who both made it into the indoor national meet last year. Leather was able to get in on scratches while Richards eventually earned All-American honors, catching fire at the perfect time.

Both of these women are coming off of 4:36 mile performances from last weekend. However, although their times read the same, their performances were actually very different.

Richards was carried to a fast time by the field that she was in, setting for 7th place overall at Boston University and finishing as the third-best collegiate. Leather, however, went head-to-head with Illinois star Olivia Howell who owns a 4:09 personal best for 1500 meters. In the end, Leather pulled off the upset, running a monster PR and winning by over three seconds.

Leather's race showed us that she is no longer a fringe contender who will just be happy to make it to the indoor national meet. This performance was the real deal and a big result this weekend, even if it's not a PR, would validate the idea that Leather is a true national qualifying threat who could contend for All-American spot.

As for the rest of this field, I am really high on Mia Barnett. The Virginia freshman has run 4:40 in the mile this season and owns high school personal bests of 4:37 (1600m) and 4:39 (mile). In a race as fast as this, it seems realistic to think that a 4:37 mark could be in play for someone like Barnett in an absolutely perfect scenario.

She's still young and inexperienced, and this will not be an easy field to manage, but Barnett is talented enough to salvage a sub-4:40 result. She's a speedy miler who could realistically match some of the speed of the other women in this field.

The Virginia Tech duo of Leigha Torino and Hannah Ballowe will be key names to watch in this race. I'll admit, I was surprised to see that Torino wasn't going to run the 800 meters. That would have been a perfect field for someone of her caliber. Ballowe, meanwhile, is coming off of a huge 2:44 effort for 1000 meters and has at least shown enough promise in the mile to produce a sub-4:40 result this weekend.

To be clear, I'm not saying that Torino can't find success in this field. However, I just felt like the women's 800 meters would have been the perfect race for her. It's super fast at the top of that 800 field, but the backend of the field was also competitive. That group could have pushed Torino potentially a time where she earns a converted 2:03.

Even so, the graduate transfer from Duke is too good against top-level competition to not run some sort of top mark, or at least a personal best, in this mile field this weekend.

The Kentucky duo of Jenna Gearing and Tori Herman are both coming off of losses to two youngsters this season: Alexandra Carlson in the mile and Parker Valby in the 3000 meters.

Gearing and Herman are super experienced and should know how to navigate these races. However, Herman needs to be able to fully translate her 4:14 personal best for 1500 meters and her 4:39 personal best in the mile to her mile race for this weekend.

Gearing, meanwhile, has shown in past cross country seasons that she is an All-American talent. She's super talented and super consistent, but we're still waiting for that one performance to show us that she can be a contender this indoor season.

NC State's Sarah LaTour is on the verge of a big performance. She had an underrated spring season in the steeplechase, has run 16:06 for 5000 meters, opened up her indoor season with a 9:12 mark for 3000 meters and threw down a respectable 2:54 mark for 1000 meters.

LaTour is a solid, respectable talent and her steady improvements lead me to believe that she's ready for a breakout race. The problem, however, is that I don't know if that breakout race will be this weekend, later this winter or not until the spring.

I guess we'll find out sooner or later.

PREDICTIONS (only collegiates, not converted):

Samantha Bush (NC State) -- 4:34
Ellie Leather (Cincinnati) -- 4:36
Kaley Richards (UMass Lowell) -- 4:37
Hannah Ballowe (Virginia Tech) -- 4:39
Tori Herman (Kentucky) -- 4:39
Mia Barnett (Virginia) -- 4:40
Leigha Torino (Virginia Tech) -- 4:40
Jenna Gearing (Kentucky) -- 4:42
Sarah LaTour (NC State) -- 4:43

How Many Men Can Go Sub-Four This Weekend?

The answer to this question largely depends on whether or not you want to include flat-track conversions. Either way, this is going to be an absolutely awesome race. Some of the best distance talents on Texas' roster will be lining up against numerous ACC standouts, as well as Eastern Kentucky's Ahmed Jaziri.

It's hard to say who the favorite in this race is because it largely depends on what racing aspects people value.

Crayton Carrozza (Texas) has run 3:59 for the mile before, but that was during his freshman year. He has since run 1:46 for 800 meters and has emerged as one of the marquee stars of this outstanding Texas middle distance program.

Meanwhile, teammate Cole Lindhorst, who transferred from Air Force this past summer, has run 3:59 in the mile and recently posted a 1:48 mark for 800 meters, flexing top-tier middle distance speed to go with his mile prowess.

From a speed standpoint, these two men are the names to watch.

Carrozza's 1:46 mark is absurdly fast and the fitness needed to run a time that quick can likely be translated to the mile, at least in some capacity.

Whether or not Carrozza is at that point in his fitness isn't something I know. However, he rarely has bad races and I'm willing to bet that he's going to be a major player this weekend.

Similarly, Lindhorst isn't someone who has many bad races, either...at least not on the track, he doesn't. The mile and the 1500 meters were Lindhorst's ideal distances during his time with the Air Force men and he consistently produced in those races.

Nowadays, Lindhorst has developed speed that he's never had before, making him that much more dangerous for this kind of mile field. Of course, whether or not he's able to properly leverage his newfound middle distance speed in a race like this has yet to be seen.

Virginia Tech's Ben Nibbelink may be the favorite for this race if you're someone who values endurance over speed for races like the mile. The Hokie star has run 3:58 in the mile and owns a 3000 meter personal best of 7:56.

Nibbelink does have some middle distance speed via his respectable 1000 meter personal best of 2:24. However, this might be someone who is aiming for an evenly-split race with the goal being to rely on his aerobic fitness to power through his splits and earn a top time.

That, of course, is just speculation, but in theory, someone like Nibbelink would thrive in a setting where the pace is aggressive, or at least relatively even.

There's no question that Nibbelink can run a sub-four mile. His 3:58 time shows us that he can do it comfortably. That said, how he performs in a field that isn't designed solely for the benefit of his team (unlike his sub-four mile at Virginia Tech last year) will be interesting to watch this weekend.

We also need to acknowledge NC State's Gavin Gaynor. The Wolfpack veteran has been a stud for years now and just ran a huge 4:00 mile time earlier this season to take down a loaded field of top milers from UNC and Duke.

After coming so close to that barrier a few weekends ago, you can expect Gaynor to be laser-focused on his splits and the pace this weekend. Whether or not this field works around him or causes traffic issues will be the biggest uncertainty, but if Gaynor was able to run 4:00 in his season debut, then he could probably run something much faster in a race that is designed to be quick.

As Duke's Nick Dahl, he just ran 7:59 for 3000 meters a few weekends ago, showing off a level of endurance that puts him in a fairly competitive tier within the ACC.

However, Dahl has always been a miler and it's the event where he has built his reputation. He has run 4:01 in the mile and also boasts 1:51 speed to pair with his recent 3k PR.

In theory, the mile is the absolute perfect distance for Dahl. He has the proper speed and endurance to perfectly utilize his fitness in the mile. He is also super experienced and is plenty familiar with top fields.

This, however, may be one of the fastest mile fields that Dahl has ever toed the line for. All things considered, this could be best opportunity he has to break the four minute barrier this year.

Eastern Kentucky's Ahmed Jaziri is an interesting entry. I thought he would have contested the 3000 meters, a distance that better suits his strengths. However, Jaziri will instead work on his mile speed.

The EKU star has "only" run 3:48 for 1500 meters, but his steeplechase mark of 8:32, as well as his 3000 meter PR of 7:53, give him some of the best aerobic fitness in this field. He's run well at this track before, posting a time of 7:55 for 3000 meters last winter, but the mile isn't his best event and this is also a year where everyone is running faster than expected.

The final name to keep an eye on in Wake Forest's Thomas Vanoppen. This is someone who could end up being one of the most dangerous men in the field. In fact, he has a strong possibility of being the top collegiate.

That's because Vanoppen didn't start competing for Wake Forest until this past fall where he held his own on the cross country course. Then, last weekend, he ran 7:55 for 3000 meters in what was a really solid race.

However, the greatest aspect of Vanoppen's resume is his 1500 meter marks. The Belgium distance talent has run a jaw-dropping time of 3:37 for 1500 meters, making him the best distance runner in the NCAA who you've never heard of.

Despite his incredible middle distance success, Vanoppen's experience on the indoor oval is very minimal. In fact, his indoor experience is only what you've seen from him so far this winter.

There is no questions that Vanoppen is talented, but trying to figure out how he will fully translate his greatest 1500 meter efforts to a flat 200 meter track leaves us with some level of uncertainty about his capabilities for this weekend.

Still, he's good enough to come out on top in the right setting.

PREDICTIONS (only collegiates, not converted):

Crayton Carrozza (Texas) -- 3:58
Thomas Vanoppen (Wake Forest) -- 3:58
Cole Lindhorst (Texas) -- 3:59
Nick Dahl (Duke) -- 3:59
Ben Nibbelink (Virginia Tech) -- 4:00
Gavin Gaynor (NC State) -- 4:00
Ahmed Jaziri (Eastern Kentucky) -- 4:03

One-Sentence Analysis: Men's & Women's 3k

Highlighting every single collegiate in the men's and women's 3000 meters for this weekend would make this preview longer than it needs to be. So, instead, I'll be highlighting every single collegiate entrant in these 3k fields and offering analysis via just one sentence.

Let's try this out...

Men's Entrants

Yaseen Abdalla (Texas)

He's super underrated, especially when you consider that he's run 4:01 in the mile and was an All-American in cross country this past fall.

Ben Fleming (Virginia Tech)

I like to think that his sub-four mile speed will benefit him if the pace suddenly gets quick, but I'm not really too sure what to expect from Fleming other than a sub-eight result.

Ka'eo Kruse (Virginia)

Everything on his resume says that he's at his best when he's racing the mile, but I also didn't expect him to run 4:01 earlier this season, so maybe I'll be proved wrong yet again by his 3k performance.

Christian Noble (Lee (Tenn.))

Noble likely wants to make a statement this weekend after seeing the incredible performances that the American International men and Aaron Ahl had last weekend.

Cameron Ponder (Furman)

He's more consistent in the mile, but he's at his best in the 3000 meters and I'll stand by that statement even if he doesn't have his best race this weekend.

Ian Shanklin (NC State)

I don't know how far under eight minutes he'll go, but Shanklin is probably the least likely to have a poor performance this weekend.

Carson Bix (Lee (Tenn.))

A lot of people are looking at Noble's success, but Bix just ran 4:01 in the mile the other weekend and he is probably at his best in the longer events like the 3000 meters.

Athanas Kioko (Campbell)

I will be so fascinated to see if Kioko utilizes his refined race tactics and his improved understanding of pacing against an elite-level field that can match his talent.

Antonio Lopez Segura (Virginia Tech)

Lopez Segura has sneaky-good speed, leaving me to believe that he could be a factor late in this race if he's able to hold on for long enough.

Alex Ostberg (North Carolina)

When he's at his best, Ostberg is one of the best 3000 meter runners in the NCAA, although his mile performance from earlier this season, while not bad, left me wanting a little more.

Rodger Rivera (Texas)

I have never once seen Rivera's name, but a recent 4:05 mile and a respectable cross country season leads me to believe that this could be a really nice race for him.

Parker Wolfe (North Carolina)

He's going to run under 7:50 this weekend and I have never felt so confident about something before in my life.

PREDICTIONS (only collegiates, not converted):

Athanas Kioko (Campbell) -- 7:47
Parker Wolfe (North Carolina) -- 7:49
Alex Ostberg (North Carolina) -- 7:50
Christian Noble (Lee (Tenn.)) -- 7:53
Antonio Lopez Segura (Virginia Tech) -- 7:54
Yaseen Abdalla (Texas) -- 7:54
Cameron Ponder (Furman) -- 7:55
Carson Bix (Lee (Tenn.)) -- 7:56
Ben Fleming (Virginia Tech) -- 7:57
Ian Shanklin (NC State) -- 7:59
Ka'eo Kruse (Virginia) -- 8:03
Rodger Rivera (Texas) -- 8:05

Women's Entrants

Adelyn Ackley (Liberty)

She's great in cross country and her mile time has slightly improved, but I wonder if that's enough to really show her true talent in the 3k this weekend.

Margot Appleton (UVA)

She's a freshman whose youth could be her greatest liability and her greatest asset this weekend.

Mackenna Curtis-Collins (Wake Forest)

She's had some really solid performances so far this winter and in this field, I think she could really surprise a lot of people despite her inexperience at the D2 level.

Nicole Fegans (Georgia Tech)

This is her ideal distance and after a 4:37 mile last weekend, I'm optimistic about her chances for success this weekend.

Alexandra Hays (NC State)

She had a breakout race at Boston University and this 3k field makes me feel like she'll replicate that magic come this weekend.

Celine Ritter (Lee (Tenn.))

She's going to run really fast by D2 standards, but frankly, we shouldn't at all be surprised when that happens.

Fatima Alanis (Queens (NC))

This will be the race where Alanis proves that she is the real deal and that she deserves to be in the same conversation as the D2 elites.

Kelsey Chmiel (NC State)

Her recent 4:36 mile makes me feel much confident about Chmiel's chances of a fast 3000 meter time, especially in a loaded field like this.

Calli Doan (Liberty)

Being a cross country All-American who has done well in the 5k leads me to believe that she'll run well in the 3000 meters...but "how well?" is the real question.

Bethany Graham (Furman)

She's a cross country All-American who is super underrated in this field given her prowess in the 1500 meters and the 5000 meters.

Michaela Reinhart (Duke)

Reinhart is due for a major, big-time performance on the track, but I have no idea if that will be this weekend or not.

Savannah Shaw (NC State)

I don't see a scenario where she has a poor performance this weekend.

PREDICTIONS (only collegiates, not converted):

Kelsey Chmiel (NC State) -- 8:57
Nicole Fegans (Georgia Tech) -- 9:03
Savannah Shaw (NC State) -- 9:04
Alexandra Hays (NC State) -- 9:06
Bethany Graham (Furman) -- 9:09
Mackenna Curtis-Collins (Wake Forest) -- 9:11
Celine Ritter (Lee (Tenn.)) -- 9:13
Michaela Reinhart (Duke) -- 9:14
Adelyn Ackley (Liberty) -- 9:15
Margot Appleton (Virginia) -- 9:16
Calli Doan (Liberty) -- 9:16
Fatima Alanis (Queens (NC)) -- 9:25