2024 NCAA Regional XC First Thoughts: Virginia Tech Stuns, Tulsa's Miracle Qualifier, Furman Falls Short & Michigan State’s Bizarre Kolas Scenario

So...have you caught your breath yet?

Don't worry, neither have we.

The 2024 NCAA Regional XC Championships were just as entertaining as we could have realistically asked for. While many results matched our initial projections, a handful of unexpected performances left us at The Stride Report absolutely stunned!

Below, I made an effort to analyze many of the key races that we saw on Friday. And no, we won't be covering every. single. race. simply because a good number of those regional battles and Kolas outcomes were largely unsurprising.

Alright, let's dive in...

Click Here For Fully Confirmed National Qualifying Teams

Virginia Tech Earns Stunning 4th Place Finish in Southeast Region, Get Pushed Into National Meet By Wake Forest

Anyone who has been a regular reader of our site for long enough probably knows that I am a Virginia Tech alum. As such, I always root for anything and everything that involves the Hokies.

And yet, at the same time, I like to think that I am fairly level-headed and honest about the expectations of my favorite team (or any team, for that matter). That's why, when it came to Friday, I wasn't expecting the Virginia Tech men to make much noise.

The Southeast region was stacked. And although the Hokies were having a decent fall campaign, there wasn't much on their resume which suggested that they would be able to legitimately contend for a spot to the NCAA XC Championships.

Or so I thought.

On Friday, Virginia Tech was brilliant, securing a monster 4th place team finish which allowed them to get "pushed" into the national meet by Wake Forest who was one spot behind them. And even if they hadn't defeated the Demon Deacons, then Furman would have also "pushed" them into the national meet.

George Couttie took home the regional title in what was clearly the best race of his still-young career. He was a standout D2 rookie last year, but the progress that he has made in his fitness has been absolutely stunning. And with teammate Nicholas Kipchirchir (14th) offering a strong result as well, the upfront scoring presence of VT's cross country squad looked quietly great.

However, the true heroes of this team are William Winter (28th) and Declan Rymer (32nd) who offered outstanding scoring stability in the middle of this lineup. With the team's fifth man dropping back to 53rd place (which isn't too bad of a result in retrospect), VT needed to be excellent at their third and fourth scoring positions if they wanted to get into the national meet.

And sure enough, they did just that.

This is the first year of Ben Thomas' tenure as Virginia Tech's Director. If this is what he's able to do in year one, then what can he do three years from now? What about four to five years from now?

The future is very, very bright in Blacksburg, Virginia...

Furman Women Struggle, Leave At-Large Qualifying Spot Open For Harvard

Going into Friday, we felt pretty good about the Southeast region on both the men's and women's sides. For the most part, it didn't matter what order the top teams in the field finished. As long as they delivered on bare minimum expectations, Virginia, NC State, UNC and Furman were all going to advance to the national meet.

Unfortunately for the latter, the Paladins flat-out struggled...a lot.

Instead of taking 4th place, the Furman women fell all the way back to 8th place, taking themselves way out of contention for a national qualifying spot. That result was arguably just as stunning as the Virginia Tech men placing 4th.

So...what happened?

The Paladins' top-three women were quietly great. Carly Wilkes, Jenna Mulhern and Kaylie Armitage all cracked the top-20, going 14-15-18, respectively. The challenge, however, was that a massive gap formed after those three women crossed the line. The final two scorers for Furman dropped to 79th place and 90th place.

This result has to sting...a lot. The Paladins, at their very best, had the chance to be a top-15 team in the country next weekend. Not all is lost for the future -- their top-three women could all return in 2025 -- but this certainly feels like a big missed opportunity to put forth a great postseason result.

That said, I want to give a big nod of respect to Coach Rita Gary. After the race, she took to X (formerly Twitter) and publicly put the poor team performance on her. It was a refreshing display of ownership that I haven't seen too often.

Sure, that's not going to change the end result, but I do appreciate the great show of character.

Of course, in the Kolas era, one team's loss is another team's gain. That's why no one could have been more thrilled about Furman's struggles than Harvard.

Even if the Paladins had a poor day and settled for 5th place, they still would have "pushed" almost any team ahead of them into the national meet. If an at-large bid was going to unexpectedly become available, then it didn't feel like it was going to originate from the Southeast region.

But Furman struggling as much as they did opened the door for Harvard, a team that was on the very fringes of qualifying for the national meet. Their 4th place finish in the Northeast region was solid, but the rest of the projections that we had for the women's regional races all seemed fairly stable.

If there were going to be any surprises, they were going to come from the men's side.

Thankfully for Harvard, the only true surprise of the women's regional weekend was Furman. The Paladins struggling as much as they did was ultimately the reason why the Crimson women were the "Last Team In" to the national meet.

Tulsa's Miracle Kolas Scenario Breaks In Their Favor

Coming into Friday's regional championships, we felt like the Tulsa men had a shot at qualifying for the national meet. But the more that we researched the Kolas scenarios, the more we realized that a large handful of different outcomes needed to take place if the Golden Hurricanes were going to advance.

Seeing this team place 3rd in the Midwest region was extremely unsurprising. After all, both Oklahoma State and Iowa State are podium favorites. The more interesting development wasn't necessarily Tulsa's team performance, but rather, the performances of other teams around the country.

Things certainly didn't look good when Virginia Tech placed 4th at the Southeast Regional XC Championships. The Hokies being "pushed" into the national meet by Wake Forest essentially gave the Golden Hurricanes one less at-large spot to contend for -- and they couldn't afford that.

But then Portland dropped to 5th place in the West region with very few Kolas points. And with no other teams to "push" them into the national meet, the number of projected at-large bids to come out of the West region went from five bids to four bids.

Then, the Mountain region results came in. For the most part, all of the teams that we expected to advance to the national meet did exactly that. The only catch, however, is that Texas Tech did not finish ahead of Colorado and therefore did not get "pushed" into the national meet.

And yes, you guessed it, that left one more at-large bid open for the taking.

However, maybe the most important region that contributed towards Tulsa's national qualifying bid was the Great Lakes region sending only one at-large team to the NCAA XC Championships.

Had Michigan finished ahead of Purdue as expected, then the Wolverines would have "pushed" Michigan State into the national meet, taking Tulsa out of contention for a national meet spot. Not only that, but Michigan State and Butler actually TIED with 104 points each! If the Spartans had defeated the Bulldogs, then both teams would have qualified for the national meet and Tulsa would have been left at home.

In other words, three different scenarios in three different regions needed to happen in order for the Golden Hurricanes to qualify for the national meet. And in an unbelievable stroke of luck, Tulsa got everything they needed to extend their fall campaign by one week.

Toledo & Michigan State Women Qualify For National Meet After Sitting On Fringes Throughout Friday

Going into Friday, the two teams who we were watching the closest on the women's side were Toledo and Michigan State. In our eyes, those were the two teams that were in the most vulnerable positions from at at-large qualifying point of view.

In the end, both teams advanced. However, there were a handful of scenarios which could have played out very poorly for both teams.

Take the South region for instance. At that meet, Alabama and Florida took the top-two automatic qualifying spots. Meanwhile, Florida State, Tennessee and Lipscomb took 3rd place, 4th place and 5th place respectively.

But...what would have happened if Alabama moved back to 4th place?

Well, in that scenario, Tennessee gets "pushed" into the national meet, therefore giving both Toledo and Michigan State one less Kolas point. That allows Villanova to enter the national qualifying mix where they can "push" Princeton into the national meet.

As a result, Toledo would have been the last team into the national meet, but both Michigan State and Harvard would have ended their seasons early.

There are a few other scenarios where the Rockets and/or the Spartans could have fallen out of the national qualifying picture. The other scenario was that Furman could have placed 5th in the Southeast region, pushing Wake Forest into the national meet and therefore taking two at-large bids away from the Great Lakes region.

Simply put, it felt like a coin toss as to whether or not Toledo and Michigan State would advance.

Michigan State's Bizarre Kolas Scenario (Men)

A few years ago, there was a highly unusual Kolas scenario where, if the Gonzaga men had performed slightly worse at the West regional meet, then they would have qualified for the NCAA XC Championships.

And, believe it or not, we seemingly have another scenario just like that in 2024!

In the Great Lakes region, the Michigan State men placed 4th, the Purdue men placed 5th and the Michigan men placed 6th. Let's assume that Michigan State's second scorer, who scored 19 points, was suddenly erased from the results. Now, let's move everyone else behind that now-deleted runner up one spot.

If that had happened, then Michigan State would have scored 130 points and remained in 4th place.

However, both Purdue AND Michigan would have scored 145 points each. And in that scenario, the Wolverines would have defeated the Boilermakers on a tie-breaker and placed 5th overall!

If that had happened, then Michigan would have pushed Michigan State into the national meet. And in that scenario, neither Georgetown nor Tulsa would have qualified for the NCAA XC Championships.

So yes, you read that right: If the Michigan State men had actually performed at a lesser level (but still finished in the same spot), then they could have qualified for the national meet.

Pure insanity.