2024 Boston U. John Thomas Terrier Classic Preview (Part One): Essayi vs Sahlman, Abdalla's Season Debut & Can Nico Young or Ky Robinson Break the NCAA 5k Record?

Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Jan 25, 2024
10 min read

Ladies and gentlemen, the greatest time of the indoor track season is now upon us!

This weekend will effectively kick-off a handful of highly competitive meets at Boston U. which will be scattered over the next five-ish weeks. The famed indoor facility has been home to some of the greatest indoor track performances in NCAA history. And based on some of the entries for this year's John Thomas Terrier Classic, that should continue to be the case in the winter of 2024.

Remember, this weekend's meet at Boston U. is a two-day affair. Nearly all of the men's races will be contested on Friday and the women's races will take place on Saturday. Also, we are basing this preview off of the latest entries/performance list which are not split by heat.

As such, it's possible that someone may end up contesting a different event (or not race at all) when it comes time to toe the line.

So without further ado, let's jump right into it...

Click here to see Day One entries

Click here to see Final Schedule

Men's 800 Meters: Sharif vs Fernandez vs Lindhorst

The men's 800-meter field at Boston U. this weekend is probably the lightest of the middle and long distance events as far as collegiate entries are concerned. That, however, doesn't mean that there won't be some great performances from some of the NCAA's finest.

Mahamed Sharif of UConn is the collegiate headliner in the entries, sporting a 1:46 (800) PR which he ran on this same track last year. That performance, however, admittedly came a bit out of nowhere as the Husky star had a brilliant breakout race to qualify for the national meet.

Since then, Sharif hasn't run faster than 1:48 and was unable to advance to the outdoor national meet last spring (although he admirably put himself in contention to do so).

This weekend will be a big moment for the UConn middle distance standout. With a strong performance, Sharif can validate the outstanding run that he had last winter and establish a solid starting point for the rest of the season. And after running a new 1k PR of 2:23 earlier this winter, I like the potential he holds in this field.

And then there's BYU's Sebastian Fernandez, the walk-on star who has had numerous moments of excellence of the last year and a half.

Fernandez has been, for the most part, very consistent since he first entered the NCAA ranks, running 1:47 numerous times over the half-mile distance. He even secured an altitude conversion of 1:46 in the spring of 2022!

There have, however, been a handful of moments where Fernandez wasn't quite at his best in moments that he needed to be.

Even so, this is someone who generally thrives in fast-paced affairs -- which is exactly what he'll face this weekend. On paper, he should definitely run 1:47 (800), but the biggest question is if he can run 1:46.

But if you asked me to pick who the top collegiate will be this weekend, then I think I would have to give that nod to Texas ace, Cole Lindhorst.

If you're a consistent reader of the site, then you know that I have been partial to the skillset that Lindhorst boasts for the last few years. He's a dynamic 800/mile talent who is also incredible when doubling or being given a heavy workload. In fact, he's entered in both the 800 meters and the mile this weekend!

If he were anyone else, I would assume that Lindhorst was only contesting one of those events...but I don't think it's crazy to suggest that he could double.

After running 1:47 for 800 meters a couple of weekends ago, Lindhorst has seemingly returned to top form (or close to it) after battling injuries -- and therefore recovering -- over the last year. If he is going to continue to follow this upwards trajectory, then I could see him running 1:46 (800) this weekend.

As for the other collegiate men in this field, there are numerous guys who have run 1:48 for the half-mile distance. And frankly, listing all of them would be a bit overkill. That being said, look out for Army's Luke Griner. He was fairly consistent last winter, ran a PR of 1:48.00 (800) in the spring and recently ran a 500-meter PR the other weekend. It feels like he may be due for a big performance.

Men's Mile: Anass Essayi vs Colin Sahlman

The men's mile field at Boston U. this weekend looks strong across the board. But when it comes to the NCAA's best and brightest stars, there's no denying that Anass Essayi (South Carolina) and Colin Sahlman (Northern Arizona) are the two focal talents.

Essayi has been absolutely brilliant as a collegiate and you could argue that his best efforts have come on the indoor oval. The Moroccan superstar has posted jaw-dropping marks of 1:47 (800), 3:32 (1500, overseas last summer), 3:50 (mile) and 7:41 (3k). In fact, he ran that mile PR on this exact track last year, albeit, two weeks later than now.

While we would still like to see Essayi eventually walk away from the NCAA with a national title, he has still fared well in the postseason, at least as of last year. The Gamecock star has secured multiple upper-half All-American honors in the mile and the 1500 meters between last winter and spring.

Strictly on paper, Essayi is the better runner compared to sophomore, Colin Sahlman. The SEC standout holds versatility that is very similar to Sahlman and has often thrived in fast-paced affairs, much like the one that he'll see this weekend. Plus, he nearly got the collegiate indoor mile record last winter -- and there's a very good chance that he puts himself in contention to do so again.

Of course, it's been Sahlman who has been on fire as of late. After taking a few semesters to adjust to the collegiate realm, the former Newbury Park standout proved to be an outstanding miler with tremendous range from the 800 meters up to the 5000 meters.

And now, as we sit in the winter of 2024, Sahlman is fresh off of a 4:03 mile mark which he produced a 7000 feet of altitude. That, in turn, gave him a 3:54 conversion.

The debates regarding altitude conversions will never end. But if I had to guess, I would say that a 3:54 mile time is very much within Sahlman's wheelhouse. The second-year NAU star has very clearly upped his fitness from last year, and considering how strong he already was, that's a scary thing to think about if you're someone who has to go up against him.

It should be noted that Sahlman is also entered in the men's 3k field. However, if we had to guess, we would assume that he will contest the mile based on his seed time for the 3000 meters.

After those two men, the mile field opens up a bit in terms of who the next collegiate could be to cross the line.

Lucas Bons (BYU) is a tricky name to figure out. He had an unbelievable breakout year in the winter and spring of 2021, running 3:37 (1500) and 3:55 (mile) almost out of nowhere. But since then, Bons hasn't been able to replicate that same success, effectively making him a major wild card in this field.

And yet, despite that uncertainty, it should be noted that Bons has strung together some very solid performances as of late. The BYU veteran had a sneaky-good cross country season this past fall and just ran a 7:53 (3k) PR back in December. All of that recent momentum could result in a return to top form this weekend.

I already spoke about Texas' Cole Lindhorst who is also entered in the men's 800-meter field. It's been a while since we've seen what he can do in the mile and I wouldn't totally dismiss the idea of him doubling back from the 800 meters. However, based on how last year's mile heats were split up, it's unlikely that the Longhorn talent will make it to the top heat.

It a similar story for Northern Arizona's Kang Nyoak, Boston College's Steven Jackson and Indiana's Camden Marshall, all of whom are sub-four minute milers by good margins (Nyoak's 3:57 mark coming last weekend via conversion).

While I acknowledge that this may seem a bit overzealous, I can't help but really like every single collegiate miler that I've mentioned in this section.

Nyoak has had tons of raw talent for years now and he's just beginning to show it. Jackson had a huge breakout race last winter and it came at the same exact meet as this weekend. Camden Marshall is quietly one of the better 800/mile hybrid talents in the NCAA and was at one point listed in our top-25 outdoor track rankings (last spring).

One of those three men is going to run 3:55 tomorrow.

Who that may be? Well, your guess is as good as mine.

Men's 3k: Anass Essayi vs Yaseen Abdalla vs David Mullarkey vs Aidan Troutner

The men's 3000-meter field is arguably just as stacked as the men's mile, at least when it comes to the collegiates who are scattered throughout the results.

The top NCAA standout in this field is almost certainly Anass Essayi, someone who we just spoke about extensively in the section above. There's a very good chance that he ends up running the mile and ditches the 3k entirely.

And if he does that, then all of this pre-race analysis will be moot.

After running 7:41 (3k) last winter, it's plenty fair to suggest that Essayi is in even better shape now than he was back then. He did, after all, run 3:32 for 1500 meters last spring. And if I had to guess, the Gamecock star could almost certainly run 7:39 tomorrow -- that may even be slightly conservative. His seed time is, after all, set at 7:38.00.

Essayi is one of the more naturally talented runners in this entire field which is why he'll be favored to secure the overall win, not just the top collegiate spot. However, in terms of talent and potential, I feel like Tennessee's Yaseen Abdalla can at least stay within striking distance of his conference rival.

Despite his tough end to the 2023 cross country season, this Vol ace is still one of the best and most pure 3k runners in the country. His prior success over the mile and the 5k makes him an ideal fit for a distance that is just under two miles.

After running 7:42 (3k) last winter, Abdalla should have enough fitness to hang with the top group (i.e. Anass Essayi) for a good bit. And as long as he races like he did at the 2023 John Thomas Terrier Classic and not the 2022 Boston U. Season Opener, then I could see him securing a new personal best this weekend.

Of course, contending with someone of Essayi's caliber, while doable, will likely take the best race of Abdalla's career.

BYU's Aidan Troutner isn't nearly as proven over 3000 meters as Essayi or Abdalla, but it's plenty realistic to think that he could run 7:43 or faster this weekend. This is someone who just ran 3:59 (mile) at 5000 feet of altitude (earning a 3:54 conversion). He has also said that he may end up being a better 3k runner than a miler.

Troutner's latest effort suggests that he has a lot of aerobic strength and enough turnover/speed to be a major player in this field. But how he approaches this race from a tactical standpoint will be interesting to see. And if there's a scenario where he goes with Essayi and Abdalla, how long could he hang?

I'm not going to put a cap on Troutner's potential this weekend, but it's also fair to have a ton of questions about how he'll attack Friday's race.

Florida State's David Mullarkey is probably one of the safer bets in this race to run something along the lines of 7:45 or 7:46. He has already run 7:53 (3k) this season and is coming off of a huge cross country campaign which suggests that he's significantly better than that.

Truthfully, I'm in the camp that Mullarkey is a better 5k runner than he is a 3k runner. However, when you look at the remaining opportunities to run a fast 5k time, it feels like there are better chances to qualify for the national meet in the "shorter" of the two long distance events.

There are a handful of other key names scattered throughout this field, but none more notable than Lex Young (Stanford) and Perry Mackinnon (Syracuse). Both of those men feel like wild cards, but for different reasons. It wouldn't shock me if they went under 7:50 for 3000 meters this weekend, but their recent history of performances makes it tough to pinpoint just how fast they can/will run.

Men's 5k: Can Nico Young and/or Ky Robinson Reset the NCAA 5k Record of 13:03?

I don't think I have ever been as high on Nico Young as I am right now. In fact, I'll just go ahead and say it: I believe that Nico Young will break the NCAA 5k record on Friday.

This Northern Arizona star has never looked as good as he has over the last two months. His jaw-dropping 7:37 mark for 3000 meters back in December was wildly impressive, especially given how he utilized his kick at the end. And if that wasn't good enough, Young just ran an unconverted mile time of 3:57 at 7000 feet of altitude! That converted to a 3:48 mark!

Put the altitude conversion aside. This Northern Arizona veteran is primed for a monster performance. Not only that, but Young is someone who has historically thrived in fast-paced, time trial settings -- which is exactly what tomorrow's race will be.

Plus, when you look at the number of standout pros entered in this field, it feels extremely unlikely that we don't see multiple sub-13:00 performances.

The analysis for Ky Robinson largely isn't any different. He already ran 13:06 for 5000 meters back in December, falling only to Graham Blanks who set the collegiate 5k record of 13:03. And when you consider that this 5k field is far more top-heavy, it's not unrealistic to think that Robinson will be gunning for that 13:03 mark.

After all, there isn't much else that he can accomplish in this event.

As for the rest of the collegiate 5k entrants, Northern Arizona's Theo Quax and Aaron Las Heras will likely be facing Stanford veteran, Cole Sprout, in a separate heat (which is just an assumption). BYU's Joey Nokes should also be on your radar given how good he has been over the last year.

Of that group, I think I like Quax and Nokes the most. The former just ran an altitude converted mile time of 3:54 the other weekend while Nokes has often fared well in race environments similar to this. He is likely faster than what his 13:29 (5k) PR would suggest and I imagine that his goal is to reset that mark on Friday.

FINAL PREDICTIONS (collegiates only)

*Denotes that a collegiate is also entered in another individual event. TSR is assuming that all runners will contest the race that they are entered in completely fresh.