2023 Ken Shannon Last Chance Invite Preview

TSR Collaboration
Feb 22, 2023
19 min read

Written by Scotty Loughlin, Gavin Struve, Maura Beattie & Finn Birnie

Additional edits & commentary by Garrett Zatlin

Traditionally, Boston University plays host to the nation's premiere "Last Chance" meet at the end of every February. However, that meet is no longer listed on the school's meet schedule. Luckily, the University of Washington is stepping in to host a Last Chance meet of their own.

While most D1 talents will be racing at their conference meets this year, certain schools from the West Coast Conference and the PAC-12 don't have an indoor championship. As a result, we'll get many of the most talented west coast talents going head-to-head this weekend in Seattle.

Below, we asked our writers about each of the men's and women's distance fields. Here is what you can expect this Friday and Saturday...

CLICK HERE FOR HEAT SHEETS

Click here to see Final Predictions

BYU's Claire Seymour and Alena Ellsworth are looking to improve their spots on the national leaderboard in the 800 meters. How fast do they need to run for you to feel comfortable that they’ll qualify for the indoor national meet? Which athlete in this field has the greatest chance of having a breakout performance this weekend to qualify for the national meet?

Maura: The women’s 800 meters is deep this year -- wildly deep. Currently, the NCAA #16 time on the national leaderboard over that distance is 2:03.67. That is an insane mark to have at that low of a point in the national standings.

Seymour finally showed glimpses of her true All-American potential two weeks ago when she ran 2:04 over the half-mile distance. And Ellsworth proved earlier in February that she’s finding her groove after matching her 2:03 PR.

However, for those BYU Cougars, they are going to need something in the mid-2:02 range to have a stronger chance at qualifying for the indoor national meet. And more importantly, feel safe about their spot to Albuquerque rather than on the fringes.

I’m really liking the potential for Arizona's Alisa Lyesina this weekend following her 2:04 (800) effort at the Husky Classic. The Wildcat junior already had a 2:04 mark to her name from the 2022 outdoor track season, but after a slower start to this indoor track season, Lyesina appears to be back on track (pun intended).

If she can drop another second and a half while finish amongst the top-two, there’s no doubt in mind that Lyesina will be standing on the start line at the NCAA Indoor Championships.

Scotty: Looking at the current women's national leaderboard over 800 meters, I’m anticipating that will be very few (if any) scratches. Therefore, Claire Seymour will have to improve her time quite a bit to qualify. Alena Ellsworth could use a faster mark for some breathing room as she currently holds a fringe spot at NCAA #15.

I agree with Maura’s assessment -- running under 2:02.50 would be a near-guarantee for a qualifying position. But even a sub-2:03 effort at this point of the season should be strong enough for these women to punch their tickets to the NCAA Indoor Championships.

Outside of those two women, Stanford’s Ellie Deligianni has the best chance at breaking out and dropping a national qualifying time. The Cardinal veteran holds a PR of 2:03 (800) and advanced to the NCAA Outdoor Championships last year. If the pace produced by this field is hot enough, then it’s entirely within reason to believe that Deligianni could perform at the same level as BYU’s top athletes.

Finn: The women’s 800 meters is looking better than ever this year and if Seymour wants to secure her spot, then she is going to have to show up big-time this weekend.

In past years, a 2:04 effort would have had a good shot of putting her on the national stage. But this year, that not going to cut it. To have some room to relax, the Cougar duo will have to dip into that mid-2:02 range that Maura mentioned. Luckily, this middle distance duo have been showing modest improvements as of late, so I have no doubt that they will produce when it matters -- but will it be enough?

I’m loving the progression of USC’s Gigi Maccagnini (who is in heat five of six) this season. The Trojan middle distance talent has lowered her mark this season at every opportunity with her current 800 meter PR sitting at 2:05.11. With her current momentum, I wouldn't be shocked to see Maccagnini come closer to that mark, if not dip under it.

Gavin: One has to think that a sub-2:03 mark over 800 meters would prove enough for a spot on the national stage...right? It seems absurd that we’re even posing that question.

However, it’s conceivable that someone could run 2:02.9 -- good for NCAA #11 right now -- and find themselves in real danger of missing the NCAA Indoor Championships if the upcoming conference meets get off to a hot start. I’ll join my colleagues in saying that I think a 2:02.5 would be a near-lock for a trip to Albuquerque.

The aforementioned Deligianni is most likely to join Seymour and Ellsworth in that range. But to do so, she’ll not only need to run a seasonal best, but also a personal best. If she’s at her best, then she has the experience, and perhaps the knowledge of these competitors and this track, to do so.

Is Elliott Cook the overwhelming favorite in the men’s 800 meters? Is there anyone who can keep pace with him? What percent chance do you give the field to defeat Cook?

Maura: No.

Cook might be the leading man in this field based on his 1:46 (800) PR. And sure, he has some natural foot-speed as well as 3:55 mile strength. But there’s still room for error in a race this short, relatively speaking. And his greatest competition is definitely not a pushover.

The Oregon stud is clearly trending in the right direction with the NCAA Indoor Championships right around the corner. But Arizona State’s Dayton Carlson will be looking to bump elbows with Cook right down to the line.

Carlson, like Cook, also has a 1:46 PR over 800 meters from last spring. However, the Sun Devil athlete has "only" run 1:47 this season. I say that lightly because 1:47 is still a respectable time and Carlson is also an All-American in said event.

This battle will be won in the final closing meters. Cook isn’t unbeatable and if I were a betting woman, I’d say there is a 65% chance that the field defeats the Duck.

Finn: Favorite? Yes.

Overwhelming favorite? No.

Based purely on time, yes, Cook is certainly the go-to pick. But 800 meter races are never straight and narrow -- this will be a hotly-contested race.

The Oregon ace is coming off of a huge mile PR of 3:55 and he showed just how good his gear change is by dropping a 26-second last lap to come out on top of heat two at the David Hemery Valentine Invitational the other weekend.

Cook has transitioned fantastically into the new Jerry Schumacher era and has cemented himself as the Duck's new middle distance star. He is certainly going to be tough to beat.

But if there ever was a man who could go stride for stride with the Duck standout, it’s Arizona State’s Dayton Carlson. He will be entering this race with one clear mission -- to lower his seasona; best and sneak his way into the indoor national meet.

As I’m writing this, he is just 0.25 seconds off from the top-16 automatic national qualifying cut-off, so he will be gunning to get the race moving.

Just like Maura mentioned, this one is going to come down to the wire. Due to NCAA bylaw 10.3, I can’t bet, but if I could, I would say that there is a 75% chance that Cook doesn't win.

Gavin: I’m with Maura and Finn.

You could make a solid argument for a few other men to win this field. Cook blew away his last west coast field with a sub-1:47 (800) mark, but he’ll have a taller task ahead as he aims to stay undefeated in the conventional (800 & mile) distances this indoor season.

Arizona State's Dayton Carlson has run 1:47.5 (800) this year, will be desperate for a national qualifying mark and has a faster personal best than Cook (1:46.7). BYU’s Sebastian Fernandez is in a similar boat.

A couple PAC-12 contemporaries such as Stanford’s John Lester and UCLA’s Ronan McMahon-Staggs (the latter of recent 3:54 mile notoriety), provide even more variables.

Taking the field here is the best bet even if Cook is the nominal favorite. I’ll say that the field has a 70% chance at taking down the Oregon ace.

Scotty: As much as I want to say that Elliott Cook is the overwhelming favorite (so he can post another one of my excerpts to his Instagram story), I cannot say that in this scenario largely due to the presence of Dayton Carlson.

Maura outlined their strengths quite well, so I won't be too redundant. But who do you take here? The guy who has more momentum and is stronger across multiple events (Cook)? Or the one who has an All-American honor on their resume and appears to be peaking at the right point of the season (Carlson)?

Despite my hesitation at calling Cook an overwhelming favorite, I still feel like this is his race to lose. He impressively held off Washington’s Cass Elliott earlier in the season and appears to be firing on all cylinders after a huge 3:55 mile PR.

All of my fellow writers have predictions right in the wheelhouse I was considering, but for the sake of being unique, I’ll go low and slate Cook’s chances at 60% tow win. He's still the odds-on favorite, but I'm also leaving room for a breakout race from Carlson or the chaos of this field to yield a result that we aren’t expecting.

The women’s mile has multiple headliners entered, but the most interesting of them all may be freshman phenom Juliette Whittaker of Stanford. How do you think Whittaker fares against the likes of Sophie O’Sullivan, Laura Pellicoro, Riley Chamberlain, Kaylee Mitchell, Grace Fetherstonhaugh and others? Who are you giving the edge to and why? How many women do you see running under 4:33?

Maura: I don’t see Whittaker winning, but a top-five finish is a very strong possibility. The Stanford freshman ran her way to a 4:33 PR in the mile at the Razorback Invitational late January, finishing 4th amongst a strong field.

But the field that she'll face this weekend is even tougher -- and arguably deeper.

What Whittaker has that her competitors don’t is sub-2:00 (800) speed. However, if this race comes down to a test of strength from the gun, the Cardinal ace will have to utilize a different aspect of her racing arsenal.

In my mind, the edge has to go to Washington’s Anna Gibson. The Husky senior has been impressive in each of her races this winter. Gibson has thrown down PR after PR over the last few months, but her most impressive mark was a solo 4:31 altitude-converted mile. Experience is paying off for Gibson at the right time this year.

As for the barrier-breaking prediction, give me five women under 4:33.

Whittaker is coming off a strong 2:00 half-mile effort and has some sneaky-good endurance. Gibson and O’Sullivan will come into this race with the home track advantage. Pellicorohas flexed both speed and strength this year. Mitchell of Oregon State will be on a revenge tour after a disappointing 4:39 mile time a few weeks ago.

Scotty: I agree with Maura on the prospects of Whittaker in this loaded field.

Top-five feels right. In fact, I’ve got her slated in exactly 5th place. While she possesses the best 800 meter speed among the women toeing the line, she’ll be competing in her secondary event against some truly dominant pure milers.

I’m giving the edge to Washington’s Anna Gibson who has run a 4:33 (mile) at Boston to go along with her converted 4:31.00 which sits at NCAA #4 for the event. The Husky veteran has the speed and tactical prowess to take home the win on her home track.

In total, I’ve settled on four athletes going under 4:33 from this bunch. In addition to Whittaker and Gibson, give me Sophie O’Sullivan and Kaylee Mitchell.

Finn: I could certainly see Whittaker upsetting some of these already-established milers. Whittaker has proved herself on the world junior stage and her transition into the collegiate ranks has been seamless, to say the least.

The Stanford freshman has been in terrific form this season and that 2:00 (800) mark at the Windy City Invite should have her filled with confidence (and momentum). I’m going to be bold and take Whittaker. Her 800 meter speed is already well-established and I think her endurance is seriously underrated.

I also agree with Scotty on this one. I can see four athletes dipping under that 4:33 mark. I see the Husky pair of Gibson and O'Sullivan delivering on their home track. I also see Kaylee Mitchell producing a sub-4:33 result, all in addition to Whittaker.

Gavin: While Whittaker won’t be the favorite, she should certainly be viewed as a contender and someone capable of knocking-off some of these more experienced women.

She may have more upside than anyone in this field as evidenced by her youth and a 1:59 (800) personal best. Plus, I’m not even sure you can call the mile an “off” event for her given that she ran 4:33 in this distance a month ago in a race where she finished ahead of Mitchell and Taylor Roe.

I’ll ride the hot hand and give the edge to Anna Gibson. She has been so insanely consistent this winter. The Husky ace has run 4:33 in the mile and has also earned a 4:31.00 mile time this season via an altitude conversion. She's also on her home track this weekend.

I’ll join Maura in predicting five sub-4:33 runners -- Gibson, O’Sullivan, Whittaker, Mitchell and Chamberlain.

Which athlete entered in the men’s mile needs a strong performance the most and why? Is there a lone individual favorite in this field?

Maura: John Lester of Stanford is in need of a strong performance. The sophomore talent has a 3:58 mile PR from earlier this season, but is still sitting on the outside looking in.

Lester, a strong 800 meter runner, could turn that half-mile speed into miler speed if the race plays towards his strengths. He will benefit from having teammates in the field and they could help carry him to another PR and potentially an NCAA qualifying time.

As for the individual favorite, UCLA’s Ronan McMahon-Straggs has been on fire lately.

A new training regiment under Coach Sean Brosnan seems to have been seamless given McMahon-Straggs’s 3:54 mile effort from last week. The Bruin athlete has shown that a lack of national-caliber experience isn’t fazing him anytime soon.

Finn: Lucas Bons sticks out to me as someone who really needs to piece it together this weekend.

Bons is probably the Cougar's strongest pure miler based strictly on his resume. However, he has struggled to get back to the 3:55 mile form that he found two years ago. If he is able to return to top form and get back down to 3:55, then his spot to the indoor national meet could be secured.

In my mind, it's safe to say that UCLA standout Ronan McMahon-Straggs is the individual collegiate favorite. He has been having himself a season! Three mile marks under 3:58 this winter prove that he is going to be a force to be reckoned with and is entering this race as the red-hot favorite.

McMahon-Straggs currently sits at NCAA #9 for the event, so his place on the start line at the NCAA Indoor Championships is pretty much secured. However, he is also entered in the 800 meters, so it will be interesting to see which race he lines up for.

Scotty: I’ll echo Finn’s take.

Lucas Bons is the man with the most on the line in this mile field. In 2021, he finished oh-so-close to an All-American honor. The Cougar star came up just short of doing so with a 9th place finish at the indoor national meet.

Talent doesn’t vanish, so one may wonder if Bons, who holds a rocket-fast PR of 3:55 (mile), will be able to utilize the momentum of his recent sub-4:00 performance and reclaim his throne as BYU’s top miler.

I don’t have much to add regarding the favorite other than to agree with my colleagues.

Ronan McMahon-Straggs has shined this season as Sean Brosnan’s cornerstone for the future of UCLA distance running. I’m not sure if I was more impressed by his solo mile effort of 3:56 at Boston or out-kicking Amon Kemboi to run 3:54.

But between both performances, it’s hard to picture anyone in this field who is truly capable of taking down the Bruin ace.

Gavin: Can I interest you in former NXN champion, Aidan Troutner?

The BYU runner is one of three men in this field to hold one of high school distance running’s most prestigious honors. He has previously shown that he’s about as good at this distance as he is in the 3000 meters and the 5000 meters.

While a major talent, I’m not sure that he’s a threat to drop an NCAA qualifying time. But a mark comfortably under 4:00 could provide a welcome embellishment on an understated collegiate resume.

Meanwhile, McMahon-Staggs is the guy to beat here. He’s capable of being felled, particularly if he doubles in the 800 meters, but he’s been the best man in this field by a relatively comfortable margin.

Is there a sole collegiate favorite in the women's 3000 meter field? If so, who? How many women do you see running under 9:00 in this field?

Maura: I’m going to rephrase this question to, “Is there a sole collegiate team favorite in this women’s 3000 meter field?”

The Utah duo of Simone Plourde and Emily Venters will make this race very interesting. These two athletes bring with them different tools that will come handy. Having a teammate in the field could lead to some Utah pacing tactics being thrown in.

Earlier this season, in two different races on this same track, Plourde (3k) and Venters (5k) both finished 2nd, running killer times of 8:57 and 15:20, respectively.

With these two women racing together this weekend at the same venue, we could see Plourde employ her speed while Venters could utilize her strength. The end result could lead them to a 1-2 finish -- and maybe a pair of 3k national qualifying times in the 8:54 range.

There are five collegiate women who I see breaking the 9:00 barrier over 3000 meters this weekend. They are Venters, Plourde, Sadie Sargent (BYU), Lexy Halladay-Lowry (BYU) and Maddy Elmore (Oregon).

The sleeper pick of the bunch is Elmore. Coach Shalane Flanagan has been impressive in her first season as an NCAA coach and Elmore’s recent success has validated that. The freshman may only have a 9:11 (3k) PR right now, but after her 4:35 mile from last weekend, her ceiling has only gotten higher.

If she doesn’t race the mile, Colorado’s Ella Baran could also see a sub-9:00 performance next to her name. But again, it all comes down to if she does or doesn’t contest the mile as there isn’t much rest between races.

Finn: As Maura has already established, the Utah duo are going to be hard to beat. Their combination of speed and strength can only favor them. And of course, there is nothing better than racing alongside your training partner.

I see four women dipping under that 9:00 (3k) mark. Venters, Plourde and the BYU pairing of Sadie Sargent and Lexy Halladay-Lowry.

The BYU women have been developing incredibly well this season with Sargent already posting an 8:59 (3k) mark in Boston. Meanwhile, Halladay-Lowry will be looking to reset her 9:04 (3k) mark from way back in December.

All four of those athletes will be eying an 8:55 (3k) mark which should be a nice safety cushion to guarantee their spots at the indoor national meet.

Just like Maura, I'm really intrigued to watch Oregon freshman, Maddy Elmore. She is quietly fit right now after an recent 4:35 mile PR, but I'm not sure if that will translate to an 11-second PR over the longer distance.

Still, I would love to see her prove me wrong and bring that potential total to five collegiate women under nine minutes over 3000 meters.

Gavin: There’s no singular resume that substantially stands out among the crowd here. But the fact that there’s no true superstar entered at this distance doesn’t mean that this won’t be a massively entertaining race.

I see four women dipping under 9:00 (3k) here — Halladay-Lowry, Plourde, Sargent and Baran. That may be a conservative estimate given that several women in this field will likely be racing to put themselves in the national qualifying picture or better their position.

But with no bellwether in the field, I’m not sure one athlete will try to push the pace herself and risk jeopardizing her chances at the win.

If she contests this field and is fresh enough, then Ella Baran is my favorite. Otherwise, I’d give the slight nod to her intermountain adversary, Simone Plourde.

Scotty: Gavin is right, there is no sole favorite in this field based on resumes.

There are four women who seemingly have an equal shot at taking the win: Ella Baran, Simone Plourde, Emily Venters and Sadie Sargent. All four are primed for a sub-9:00 performance in my eyes.

As far as the win goes, I’ll give the edge to Colorado’s Ella Baran. Although she’s also entered in the mile, my better judgment says Baran scratches out of the middle distance event and goes all-in on trying to secure a national qualifying time.

She currently holds the final spot to the NCAA Indoor Championships over 3000 meters, so shaving off a few seconds will be pivotal to ensuring that bid holds.

The Stanford trio of Ky Robinson, Cole Sprout and Charles Hicks will enter the 3k in a rematch against BYU's Casey Clinger. What are you expecting to see from these three Cardinal athletes? Is Clinger favored to beat the Stanford men again? Who is a sleeper pick in this field and why?

Maura: First, I’m honestly a bit shocked that Robinson is racing the 3k.

The Stanford runner just competed at the World XC Championships, finishing 23rd in the senior men’s 10k race. Seeing Robinson not only race one week later, but also in a much shorter distance, isn't something I thought he'd do.

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Robinson won’t end up racing this weekend.

And with that said, Hicks and Sprout will finish 1st and 3rd, respectively. Clinger will slip into the silver medal position.

A big performance needs to come from Hicks. Luckily, we know that he delivers when needed. The reigning NCAA cross country champion ran 7:53 (3k) at the end of January, but will need a sub-7:45 mark to guarantee a spot on the line in mid-March.

Clinger has raced three individual events this season and has walked away with a PR each time. The Cougar ace has run impressive marks of 7:43 (3k) and 13:17 (5k), but it’s his 3:57 (mile) that takes the cake.

Clinger has shown his versatility this year and given that he will be dropping down in altitude, another big performance is in the cards.

It’s hard to break up the Cardinal runners, but Sprout will come up just short of the 1-2 punch in my predictions. Sprout has the ideal mix of speed and strength when it comes to the 3k, but there’s just something that has me believing 3rd place is the spot for him this weekend.

It’s honestly hard to pick a sleeper pick in this race. The heavy-hitters for Stanford are coming out and Clinger will be there to rain on their parade. But since Garrett is asking me for a pick, I’m going to go with Stanford runner Devin Hart.

Hart has impressed me this winter with his 7:51 (3k) and 13:33 (5k) marks. He flies under the radar a bit and although he’s not a favorite to take a top-three finish, a sub-7:50 effort could be coming his way.

Scotty: Maura makes an excellent point about Robinson’s unique schedule. While I can picture him bettering his seasonal best of 7:49 (3k), I’m not sure if his legs will have enough juice to produce a national qualifying result this soon after a challenging 10k on the grass.

I like the potential of a signature 1-2 finish from Cole Sprout and Charles Hicks, respectively. Sprout appears to be back to his old self this season after some injury struggles and Hicks’ recent 13:22 (5k) mark suggests that he can run much faster than the 7:53 (3k) time that he opened his indoor track season with.

Picking Clinger to finish 3rd (behind Sprout and Hicks, but ahead of Robinson) is no slight to the Cougar veteran who has been on a tear this season. It's just more of a reflection of my confidence level in the Cardinal squad.

I don’t foresee anyone in this field breaking up that top-four, but I am excited to see Colorado’s Isaiah Givens matchup against this level of All-American talent.

The Buffalo rookie is Colorado’s sole sub-4:00 miler this season and he has yet to debut in the 3k. With a hot pace from the stars in this field, Givens could hold on for an encouraging debut well under eight minutes if all goes according to plan.

Finn: I would be seriously surprised to see Ky Robinson actually toe the line this weekend after his fantastic performance at the World XC Championships.

That being said, if there was anyone who could handle that kind of turn around, it's him.

The Stanford star is in the stellar form right now and his 13:11 (5k) mark from December still lives well within my memories. If he does choose to start, then I can certainly see him rewriting his 7:49 (3k) effort from the Razorback Invitational.

After a “slow” start to the indoor track season, Hicks is really starting to gain some momentum and I must say that I was very impressed with his 2:53 (1200) leg at the Alex Wilson Invite. He will most likely be looking to punch his 3k ticket to the NCAA Indoor Championships, so look out for him to keep this race honest.

Cole Sprout has proved himself to be "Mr. Consistent" and the last time the Cardinal men faced-off against Clinger, it was Sprout who was the only one who truly gave the BYU star a run for his money. Sprout also has excellent mile speed and is going to be a real handful if it comes down to the wire.

Clinger is a stud, I think we can all agree on that, so this one is going to be very close. The Stanford crew is a hard group to split up, but I believe Clinger is the guy who would be able to do just that after already taking them doing earlier this season.

I’m going to agree with Maura and say Hicks, Clinger, Sprout (in that order).

As far as a sleeper pick goes, I've also got fellow Cardinal distance runner, Devin Hart. He is coming off of a really solid 5k race (13:33) and I think he will have the confidence to throw his hat in the ring this weekend.

Gavin: It may sound counterintuitive, but Clinger’s victory over the Stanford trio from earlier this season may make it more difficult for him to beat them this weekend.

I subscribe to the age old euphemism that it’s hard to beat a team twice. If they didn’t already, the Cardinal aces will see Clinger as a threat and worthy equal. Yes, we know that Clinger can be a contender to beat a star-studded field, but he isn’t the favorite, especially since he’s entered in three different events.

As for the men from Palo Alto, I’m expecting nothing short of excellence. Robinson may be the favorite if well-rested, but if he ends up racing, then he should at least better his comparatively modest 7:49 (3k) personal best.

The Stanford men will need to run 7:44 or better to put themselves in position to qualify for the NCAA Indoor Championships -- and I’m expecting them to hit that mark. Only Sprout has done so this season, but he sits at NCAA #14 on the national leaderboard and could stand to improve upon his already-impressive time.

Don’t be surprised to see one of these men run in the 7:41 range and put themselves in the top-five, nationally. It may take a result like that to separate oneself from this field.

This also feels like an opportunity for another Stanford runner, Thomas Boyden, to truly announce his arrival among the NCAA stars.

The Utah native has shown flashes of star potential -- running 13:37 (5k) last spring, placing 7th at the PAC 12 XC Championships and securing a 3:57 mile PR this winter -- but he hasn’t pieced his resume together in the same way that his teammates have.

His 7:54 (3k) PR at this distance against a familiar field last month was a bit underwhelming for an otherwise solid mark. But Boyden is likely better-prepared to run this event. I think it’s a conservative estimate to say that a solid race from him would put him at (or under) the 7:50 barrier.

However, he has the talent to vastly exceed that estimation.