2023 Bryan Clay Invitational Preview (1500 Meters)

When was the last time that we had a three-part preview for a regular season meet? Honestly, I don't know if we ever have, but if some TSR historian wants to research and investigate, then definitely let me know.

The final heat sheets for the men's and women's 1500 meter invitational fields at the Bryan Clay Invitational have been released -- and they are VERY interesting. There are a lot of upper-tier names here, so stay patient with me as we break it all down.

Click here for final predictions

Men's 1500 Meters (Invitational Section)

Alright, so before we get started, I have a question...how do these 1500 meter heats get seeded? Because I'm not entirely sure what the argument is for certain guys getting into the top section over Washington's Luke Houser and Nathan Green, each of whom are in the next-best heat.

And Ryan Schoppe? The 3:54 miler who had a breakout winter campaign? Yeah, he's listed in the third heat which just makes no sense to me.

Alright, rant over, let's evaluate these entries.

This invitational 1500 meter field features Bowerman Track Club's Cooper Teare and Grant Fisher as well as Adidas ace Sam Prakel, Nike's Noah Kibet and Britain's Charlie Grice.

All of those pro athletes are exceptionally strong, meaning that this race will not be slow by any means. And as a result, I can't help but wonder...could we see a collegiate record in this event on Saturday night?

Let's begin with Anass Essayi, the South Carolina superstar who ran 3:50 in the mile this past winter, barely missing the collegiate record by the smallest of margins. In terms of someone's ability to dip under the 3:33.74 (1500) mark, set by Eliud Kipsang at this same meet last spring, I would say that Essayi is the most likely candidate to do so.

Let's not forget, this is a guy who qualified for the Olympics for Morocco. And before he reached Tokyo, this Gamecock standout posted a jaw-dropping mark of 3:34 for the metric mile in the Netherlands.

There's a legitimate argument to be made that Essayi is in better shape now than when he ran that 3:34 mark over 1500 meters. And if that's the case, then you have to wonder how close to 3:33.74 he can get given how well he ran in time trial-type environments this past winter.

Surprisingly, the more tactical and nuanced races, specifically on championship stages, haven't been quite as exciting for Essayi as we thought they would be. Given his skillset, I thought he would be better in those kinds of race scenarios.

That, however, likely won't be something that he needs to worry about on Saturday.

And then we come to Joe Waskom, the reigning 1500 meter national champion from last spring who erupted this past winter by throwing down numerous elite-level marks. With a fresh resume featuring times of 2:18 for 1000 meters and 3:51 in the mile, this Washington star seemingly has a shot at the 1500 meter collegiate record as well.

Admittedly, the tail-end of Waskom's indoor track campaign, while still very successful, wasn't quite as strong as we were hoping it would be. He (sorta) faded at the Boston University Last Chance meet where he ran 3:56 in the mile and he then later settled for 4th place in that same event at the indoor national meet after being viewed by many fans of the sport as the national title favorite (myself included).

But when this mile maestro is "on", he's one of the last people I would ever want to face. He has the turnover and the growing momentum to be a legitimate threat for the 1500 meter collegiate record. No, I wouldn't put money on him doing so, but I would say that he has a chance.

Of course, those two men, Anass Essayi and Joe Waskom, for as good as they are, wouldn't be my first picks if you asked me who the most "interesting" names in this field are.

Fouad Messaoudi, the Oklahoma State megastar who won the 3k and DMR national titles this past winter at the NCAA Indoor Championships, is also entered in this field -- and the potential for him to run 3:33 over 1500 meters is far greater than some people may realize.

I've come to the realization that Messaoudi is probably at his best over 3000 meters (like I said, he just won a national title in that event). But some people forget that this guy was viewed primarily as a 1500 meter runner before thriving in the longer distances this past winter and fall.

The 22-year old Moroccan came to the NCAA with a 1500 meter PR of 3:39, later ran 3:38 for the same distance overseas last May and then ran 3:54 in the mile during the winter months. And now that he'll be in an elite-caliber environment with the goal of going all-out, I can't help but wonder Fouad Messaoudi's ceiling/potential in this event could be.

I am incredibly scared of getting burned in my predictions by Messaoudi (again). In fact, there's a small part of me that thinks, "Is it ridiculous to suggest that he could maybe, sorta, possibly run 3:32?"

Will that happen? No, probably not, but the fact that a thought like that even came across my mind should tell you how much I respect this Cowboy superstar.

And if the 1500 meters truly is his best distance, then I don't know how anyone, at least within the NCAA, takes him down on Saturday night.

The other oh-so-fascinating name in this field is Eliud Kipsang, a guy who I would argue may actually be the most naturally talented distance runner among the collegiates in this field. Of course, trying to figure out what he'll actually do during Saturday's race feels like a borderline impossible task.

The Alabama star ran 3:33.74 for 1500 meters last year at this exact same meet. And yes, that is the same collegiate 1500 meter record that the field will be going after tomorrow night. In terms of emerging as the top collegiate, or maybe even winning the whole thing, Kipsang belongs in that conversation.

But this past winter, the Crimson Tide ace got off to a slow start and then recorded a DNF result in the mile at the Millrose Games. He later settled for an underwhelming 4:05 mile mark at the SEC Indoor Championships, missing the finals.

It's clear that Kipsang clearly wasn't at 100% a few months ago and that's ultimately what has me feeling a little cautious about what he should be able to do in this field. That said, given the time that has passed, I don't think Alabama (or really any coaching staff) would field their superstar athlete in this kind of field if they didn't think that they were ready.

I'm confident that Kipsang will be competitive on Saturday, but how competitive is a question that we won't have the answer to until tomorrow (which feels obvious, but you get what I'm saying).

Alright, two more collegiates to go.

Let's now move to Drake's Isaac Basten, a guy who is, without a question, the best (and most consistent) tactical NCAA runner in this field. And in terms of raw firepower/talent, the midwest ace has improved quite a bit over the last 365 days. Last spring, Basten ran 3:39 for 1500 meters, but he eventually ran 3:54 in the mile this past winter.

This race will be an all-out assault on the all-time NCAA 1500 meter list, effectively creating a time trial-type scenario. And to be clear, the Drake standout has proven that he can be competitive and hold his own in those situations -- no one is doubting that.

That, however, may not really matter.

At the end of the day, Basten just has to run fast enough for us to keep up our confidence about him being a national title contender. As long as he runs a 1500 meter PR, I would be more than happy with his performance.

Sure, I imagine that the recent mile silver medalist from the indoor national meet wants a time closer to 3:37 or even 3:36 -- and I don't think that those times are entirely out of the discussion for him. All I'm saying is that the ability to keep up seasonal momentum and remain competitive in the postseason should be the top goal.

We wrap up this section by discussing Adam Spencer, the Wisconsin ace who has been exceptional in the mile and the 1500 meter distances over the last year.

The Aussie standout stunned the country last spring with a huge 3:37 mark over 1500 meters before earning an 8th place All-American honor in that event at the outdoor national meet. And this past winter, he ran 3:55 in the mile, but then failed to qualify for the finals at the NCAA Indoor Championships.

Don't get me wrong, Spencer is supremely talented. He can absolutely be a factor in this field. And outside of the tactical aspect, he's not that far off from Basten in terms of fitness.

That said, if Spencer wants to be involved with the top men on Saturday night, he'll likely need to replicate his 3:37 (1500) PR. I don't know if that will happen, but it will be interesting to monitor.

Quick Notes on Heat Two (Next Fastest)

• I don't know what the argument was to leave out Luke Houser and Nathan Green from the top section, especially if the women's race has 16 invitational entries and the men only have 11. That doesn't make sense to me, especially when comparing resumes.

• Between that Washington duo, Nick Dahl (Duke), Ronan McMahon-Staggs (UCLA), Nick Foster (Michigan), Theo Quax (Northern Arizona) and Matthew Payamps (Georgetown), this field has the chance to be very fast. And in my eyes, I think it's going to come down to Houser, Green and Foster.

• Oregon ace Elliott Cook is racing unattached this weekend. Could that be a potential signal that he is redshirting this spring? If so, I kinda like that move. This will allow Cook to stick with the Ducks for longer as they develop their superstar youngsters.

Women's 1500 Meters (Invitational Section)

I'm not gonna lie, when I opened up the entries for the women's invitational 1500 meter field, I was surprised to see who was able to crack the top section.

And to be clear, I'm not suggesting that these women aren't talented. All I'm saying is I didn't expect certain athletes to move up to 1500 meters this weekend, double back from another event or be seeded ahead of a few other runners.

But here we are.

Truthfully, I'm not sure you could convince me that there is a sole collegiate favorite in this field. In my eyes, I feel like five or six different women could emerge as the top NCAA talent during Saturday night's races.

I suppose we should begin with Flomena Asekol. Given the way that she ended her 2023 indoor track campaign, I feel like she deserves the right to be mentioned/highlighted first.

Over the last few seasons, there has been no denying that this Alabama ace was an All-American-caliber talent. But throughout last year, she seemingly leaned heavily on just being ridiculously fit and didn't always show a ton of tactical refinement within her races.

However, in 2023, Asekol has looked like a different runner. She ran 4:32 in the mile back in December and later finished 3rd in the mile at the NCAA Indoor Championships this past winter. The Crimson Tide star is not only showing great patience, positioning and in-race IQ, but she is also getting flat-out faster as a result.

Admittedly, a not-so-great showing over 1500 meters at the Florida Relays the other week have left us wanting more from Asekol. Still, I'm not going to let one race dictate how we view her. She's just as talented (over this distance) as most of the other women in this field.

Of course, as I'm typing this, the entries for this EXACT heat were just updated. The field now includes Duke's Amina Maatoug and Oregon's Klaudia Kazimierska.

This is going to be a fascinating race for Maatoug who has been good as of late, but not nearly the elite juggernaut that I think most of us thought she could be.

The mile national title favorite faded to 7th place in that event at the indoor national meet this past winter and recently ran 4:18 for 1500 meters (in awful conditions), ultimately being upset by Michigan's Samantha Tran for the win.

In terms of natural talent and skill, Maatoug has to be the best collegiate runner in this field. But in her last two races, she has shown us that she's human. And while I still believe that she'll have an excellent performance tomorrow, my unwavering confidence in this Dutch megastar has begun to sway ever-so-slightly.

And then there's Klaudia Kazimierska, the Polish middle distance ace who was flat-out fantastic for a good chunk of the indoor track season. After a slow start to her winter campaign, Kazimierska would split 3:16 for 1200 meters on the opening leg of a DMR and double back to run 4:32 in the mile, all at the Arkansas Qualifier.

A 6th place All-American finish capped off her indoor track season, but it felt like her ceiling was as high as a 3rd place result.

In fact, there's actually good reason to believe that she can be better that what did during the winter months. Prior to joining the Oregon women, Kazimierska ran times of 2:03 (800), 2:39 (1k) and 4:07 (1500) on the outdoor oval. Those first two marks came in August of 2022 while the latter came in September.

If Kazimierska still has untapped potential, and her resume suggests that she does, then could she end up winning this race? Maybe even outright? I'm not sure I would say the latter yet, but this 21-year old Poland native is far more dangerous than you may realize.

And you know who else is in contention to win this race?

I would say Oregon State's Kaylee Mitchell.

The Beaver star has always struck me as a longer distance runner who is at her best in the 3000 meters and above (as well as the steeplechase). But this past winter, Mitchell posted a very pleasantly surprising mile time of 4:32, winning her heat at the Razorback Invitational.

In terms of overall fitness, Mitchell is undoubtedly one of the best distance runners in this field -- and she has the resume to back up that suggestion. Was a recent 15:48 (5k) PR what we thought she was capable of running? No, we figured that she would run faster, but she most certainly can and I wouldn't expect her to not deliver for a second-straight race in a row.

Don't be surprised if Mitchell runs 4:11 on Saturday.

Speaking of dynamic distance standouts, Laura Pellicoro is a name who I believe is often overlooked. This is someone who has run 2:03 (800), 4;12 (1500), 4:32 (mile), 9:03 (3k) and has been a cross country All-American.

Can this Portland ace emerge as the top collegiate on Saturday? Sure, I think it's possible, but at the very least, I would say that she may be one of the safer bets to simply not have a poor outing.

And then there's Abbe Goldstein, the New Mexico veteran who has run 4:10 for 1500 meters (unattached) before. The Lobo standout also ran 4:34 in the mile this past winter, showing us that she was gaining momentum coming into this season.

Last weekend, we saw the former Harvard runner produce a 4:15 mark for 1500 meters. And while some people may have wanted more from this Pennsylvania native, I actually thought it was a fine result. That race was slightly slower than expected and she still finished 3rd overall behind two standout talents in Billah Jepkirui and Simone Plourde.

Tactically, Goldstein is excellent and highly experienced. She knows exactly what she is doing and is fit enough to respond positively in numerous race scenarios. I don't know if I would say that she's favored to emerge as the top collegiate, but I do think that outcome is realistic for someone like herself.

And then there's everyone else. I could go on for days talking about the rest of these women, but let's quickly talk about the other women who will headline this field...

Bailey Hertenstein (Colorado) and Kayley DeLay (Washington) are both entered in this race. Hertenstein is coming off of an underwhelming 1500 meter effort at the Stanford Invitational while DeLay was just upset by Elise Thorner and Angelina Ellis in the steeplechase on Thursday night.

I'm a firm believer that Hertenstein should switch her focus to the longer distances, mainly the 5000 meters, but there are times where she can be competitive in the mile/1500 meter races. The same goes for DeLay and the steeplechase, but a 4:35 mile PR this past winter demands respect going into Saturday's race.

Gracie Morris (TCU), Maddy Elmore (Oregon) and Caroline Timm (Kennesaw State) have all had moments of brilliance in this type of event/distance.

Last spring, Morris ran 4:14 for 1500 meters essentially out of nowhere while Elmore recently recorded a very strong 4:35 mile PR during the winter months. So far this season, Timm has been respectable, but she hasn't matched her 4:36 mile PR from February or her 4:13 mark over 1500 meters from last spring.

Someone could be due for a new PR this weekend, I'm just not sure who it will be.

And then there's Michaela Rose (LSU) and Claire Seymour (BYU). Both of these women will be doubling back from the 800 meters which they'll contest on Friday night. I have no idea what to expect from this pair of middle distance stars, but they'll be interesting names to watch.

Quick Notes on Heat 12 (Next Fastest)

• Mia Barnett (UCLA) was initially in the top section, but was then reseeded to the next-fastest heat. I have no idea why that was the case, especially because she's better than half of the collegiates in the top heat, but I can only sit here and shrug my shoulders.

• I was also surprised that Gabija Galvydyte (Oklahoma State), Grace Jensen (Georgetown), Grace Fetherstonhaugh (Oregon State), Stefanie Parsons (New Mexico) and Taylor Rohatinsky (BYU) were all left out of the top section in favor of a few other names. However, if the goal was to create a more balanced secondary heat, then I suppose this seeding somewhat accomplishes that...right?

FINAL PREDICTIONS

*Assumes all runners will contest the race(s) that they are entered in completely fresh.

*Predictions only include attached collegiates only.

Women's 1500 Meters

1. Klaudia Kazimierska (Oregon) - 4:09

2. Laura Pellicoro (Portland) - 4:11

3. Amina Maatoug (Duke) - 4:11

4. Kaylee Mitchell (Oregon State) - 4:11

5. Abbe Goldstein (New Mexico) - 4:13

Men's 1500 Meters

1. Fouad Messaoudi (Oklahoma State) - 3:34

2. Anass Essayi (South Carolina) - 3:34

3. Joe Waskom (Washington) - 3:35

4. Isaac Basten (Drake) - 3:37

5. Eliud Kipsang (Alabama) - 3:38