2022 Raleigh Relays Preview (Part One)

And just like that, the outdoor track season has begun!

Well, the season technically started a few weeks ago, but just work with me here, I'm going by my own schedule.

The Raleigh Relays typically feels like the unofficial kickoff to the spring season each and every year. It's also one of, if not the, largest outdoor track meets on the east coast. And this year? Well, at least on the distance side, it feels like it is the biggest the meet has ever been.

I tried to count the total number of athletes amongst all of the distance races, lost track once, and then gave up. So just take my word! It's a lot!

Due to the unbelievable mass number of names in the distance events, I can't possibly write about every talented entrant in every event. By the time I'd finish the preview, the meet would already be over.

So what I did is I asked my fellow Blue Oval Podcast co-host Ben Weisel to review each of the distance fields at the Raleigh Relays and then pose a few questions for me to analyze and answer. Today, we are doing Part One, meaning that we will cover the men's 1500 meters, the men's 5000 meters and the women's 10,000 meters.

We'll have Part Two tomorrow!

So with that, let's get started...

Men's 1500 Meters

Amongst the collegiates, are there any title favorites in this field? If so, who? If not, why?

See, here's the thing. There are A TON of sub-four milers in this field and numerous men who are talented enough to win this race. The problem, however, is that no lone runner is that much better than the other when looking at these entries.

Michigan State's Joe Petruno is fresh off of a 3:58 mile effort in the BIG 10 mile prelims, but I'm not convinced that he could win this race.

Yale's Robert Miranda is an established miler in his own right, running 3:59 this past winter and proving how valuable he is at the collegiate level. Still, he doesn't have the same pedigree that a few others do.

Stony Brook's Robert Becker ran 3:58 in the mile this past winter, but the rest of his resume hasn't caught up with that performance.

Michigan's Olli Raimond ran 3:59 back in February and is due for greater performances, but we just don't know when those results will come.

UNC rookie Parker Wolfe is also another name to keep an eye on this weekend. He is better than his 4:00 mile PR indicates. Even so, he is clearly better suited for the longer distances.

At the end of the day, there are roughly four names who I think need to be considered for the win. They are Missouri's Martin Prodanov (3:57 mile PR), North Carolina's Alex Ostberg (3:59 mile PR), Lipscomb's Jonathan Schwind (3:42 1500 meter PR) and Penn's Ray Sellaro (3:57 mile PR).

All four of those men are established veterans who have a history of success. Prodanov has tons of sneaky speed and has proven that he can be highly competitive against most top names.

Ostberg, while not traditionally a miler, is still plenty accomplished at the distance.

Sellaro had a breakout season this past winter after years of knocking on the door of a sub-four mile and clearly has momentum on his side.

Schwind was a breakout star last spring, boasting top-tier 1500 meter and 800 meter marks. He also had an excellent winter season that went under the radar.

On paper, any of these guys could win. But if you forced me to guess? I would say I like Schwind and Prodanov the most. I really like how these guys ran this past winter and I think they have all of the tools to be majorly successful in this race.

Which athletes who aren't in the fastest heat should we keep an eye on this come Thursday?

I LOVE the second-fastest heat of this 1500 meter field. There are so many underrated names in this race.

Northeastern's Alexander Korcyznski was fairly strong this past winter, running 4:00 in the mile, while Iowa State's Chad Johnson also flexed some speed this winter, running 4:00 for the same distance.

However, the name who I really like quite a bit is Sean Peterson, also in the second heat.

The Youngstown State standout also ran 4:00 this past winter, but also showed off lethal speed in a variety of other events. His ability to run 2:22 for 1000 meters validated his national-caliber fitness and it completed his resume which also holds a 1:49 personal best for 800 meters from last spring.

Peterson is a juggernaught talent who doesn't always get the attention that he deserves. He's taken down some really solid names this winter and is consistently in the mix. Despite a clear uptick in fitness, I think he still has another tier that he can crack.

If you're looking for deep sleepers, then Liberty's Ryan Drew, Wake Forest's Aaron Las Heras, Cincinnati's Tyler Wirth and Florida's Caden Monk are all on the verge of a big breakout performance. I'm talking 3:41 or faster.

I could also touch on Nathan Green, but let's wait until the next question for that...

Finish the sentence: The fastest freshman will be _____

This is a really tough question with multiple "correct" answers.

Everyone will understandably say that North Carolina's Parker Wolfe. Not only has he run a mile personal best of 4:00, but he has also been electric in a variety of other events.

However, at the same time, Washington's Nathan Green looks like someone who could be a scary-good name this weekend. He has yet to toe the line this year, but what he did in high school, running a mile PR of 4:00, makes him just as much of a threat in this field as Wolfe.

The only problem is that Green is in the second-fastest heat while Wolfe is in the fastest heat.

Most people would probably pick Wolfe for this question and I can understand why. However, Green is much more of a miler compared to Wolfe and the Washington Huskies almost always produce some of the best mile/1500 meter runners in the nation each and every year.

The safer bet is Wolfe, but my gut tells me to go with Green, so that's who I'm going with for this question.

Who is due for a breakout performance?

It largely depends on what you classify as a "breakout" performance. I already gave a few of my favorite picks from the second-fastest heat (listed in the above section), but I actually think there are a ton of great options in the third-fastest heat.

Someone like Luke Tewalt (Wake Forest) ran a 3:59 mile this past winter as well as a 7:56 mark for 3000 meters. He's incredible, but for whatever reason, he's only in the third fastest-heat. On paper, he can't really breakout much more this season (unless he runs something absurdly fast), but I like him to outperform his seed quite a bit.

I'm also a big fan of Brett Gardner. He was excellent for NC State's DMR this past winter at the ACC Championships. He was a stud in high school and his 4:05 mile PR from earlier this year is encouraging.

There's not a ton of firepower on his resume, but he's slowly building up and he's slowly developing. I think the third-fastest heat is going to be the perfect spot for him. He won't be overwhelmed by the elite talents in the field, but he'll still be pushed throughout this race.

I could see him running 3:42(ish) on Thursday.

Which non-D1 athletes are names to watch?

Grand Vally State's Dennis Mbuta had a solid, but slightly underwhelming, indoor track season this winter. He's listed in the fourth-fastest heat which seems to be on par with expectations. After an up-and-down indoor track season, we'll be curious to see which version of Mbuta shows up on Thursday.

This could be a very telling race for him.

I also love the upcoming battle that we'll see between Terrell Patterson (Southern Connecticut State), Caleb Futter (Grand Valley State) and Mitch Cox (Queens (NC)) in the fifth-fastest heat. This matchup should be an absolute thrill.

All three of those men were D2 All-Americans this past winter. Futter and Cox in the mile and Patterson in the 800 meters. However, keep in mind that Patterson ran 4:04 in the mile this winter, so he's capable of coming out on top.

There is a lot of scary-good and experience D2 firepower in this 1500 meter field. It's going to be a treat to see these men all line up against one another.

Final Predictions (all heats, collegiates only):

1. Jonathan Schwind (Lipscomb)

2. Martin Prodanov (Missouri)

3. Alex Ostberg (North Carolina)

4. Joe Petruno (Michigan State)

5. Ray Sellaro (Penn)

6. Sean Peterson (Youngstown State)

7. Nathan Green (Washington) -- Heat 14

8. Parker Wolfe (North Carolina)

Men's 5000 Meters

Which athlete(s) should have made it into the fastest 5k heat, but didn't?

Easy: UConn's Eric Van Der Els. This guys has been SO good for SO long. His resume goes beyond just the 5000 meters and he's an experienced veteran who deserves a shot of facing the most elite talents in the nation.

He has run 2:21 for 1000 meters, 3:58 in the mile, 7:52 for 3000 meters and 13:49 for 5000 meters. Oh, and by the way, those first three PRs all came this past winter.

Van Der Els is someone who is steady and consistent and who boasts great range. I suppose that relative to his other times, his 5k personal best is a little slower, but gosh, I really would have liked to see him in the fast heat. I could truly see him dipping under 13:40 in the right setting.

Admittedly, I don't know if there are a ton more names I would throw into this conversation. There are, however, a handful of notable names who deserve some recognition.

Michigan's Joost Plaetinck is an excellent steeplechaser.

Virginia Tech's Ben Fleming is also a great steeplechaser and a strong miler.

Wake Forest's Thomas Vanoppen is known for his mile and 1500 meter prowess.

NC State's Gaynor Gaynor is an all-around stud who has never contested the 5k collegiately.

Butler's Jesse Hamlin is a proven 1500 meter standout.

Indiana's Arjun Jha can do a little bit of everything.

However, no one in this heat is quiet as strong as Van Der Els is in the 5k. If they are and I missed them, then they certainly don't boast a resume that is as dynamic as his.

Who is the most in need of a good race?

I like to think that I'm not afraid to offer my honest thoughts and analysis for questions like these, but I don't really know if there is anyone in these fields who absolutely needs a good race.

I think you could potentially argue that NC State's Ian Shanklin needs a bit good race after he underwhelmed (just a bit) this past winter. He did, however, finish a narrow 3rd place in a loaded 5k field at the ACC Indoor Championships. Plus, we have to remember that this guy ran 13:23 for 5000 meters last spring and was one spot out from All-American honors in the event.

So does he need a good race? No, not necessarily. The outdoor track season is incredibly long as it is. But could it be a good way for him to build momentum? Definitely. I think you could also probably throw Virginia's Rohann Asfaw in there. However, much like Shanklin, I don't really know if he needs a good race. He is historically at his best on the grass and he ran a 3k personal best this past winter.

Not only that, but his 13:44 (5k) personal best is pretty darn good!

However, after a not-so-great weekend at the ACC Indoor Championships a few weeks back, I think Asfaw would benefit quite a bit from a good race. Again, it's not a necessity, but it could help.

Which milers will have the most success by moving up in distance this weekend?

Remember all of those names that I listed in the earlier section of this article? Well, half of those men are milers. But will they thrive in this 5k setting? Honestly, I don't know!

If I had to guess, I'd say Virginia Tech's Ben Fleming is probably best suited for a good 5k. He's excellent in the 3000 meters and is a sub-8:40 runner in the steeplechase. On paper, those marks suggests that he's due for something substantially faster than his current 5k PR of 14:23.

Is a sub-13:50 mark too aggressive of a guess? Eh, maybe it is, but I'll go with that. I think Fleming runs 13:49 on Thursday.

Also, I have zero idea what Lucas Guerra, the true freshman from Georgetown, is going to run in the second-fastest 5k heat. However, his incredible mile prowess this year, paired with an encouraging 3k mark of 8:04 this past winter, has me feeling encouraged about his chances of success tomorrow night.

I think sub-14 might be in play, but even I'll admit, that sounds a bit aggressive for someone who is so young and is predominately a miler.

Over / Under Christian Noble running 13:37 (his PR)?

On one hand, Noble is coming off of an exhausting indoor national meet and his 5k efforts this past winter, while certainly very strong, weren't all that close to his personal best.

On the flip side, Noble looked like he was at an elite-level of fitness over the last month in both the mile and the 3k. With everyone in the NCAA getting so much faster, one has to think that a fast field on Thursday would favor this D2 star.

I'll say that Noble does run sub-13:37, probably in the low 13:30s range (official prediction of 13:31). That seems to be on par with expectations. That time isn't unrealistic at all, but it's also quick enough to not be a guarantee for Noble.

I'll admit, his 2021 outdoor track season wasn't amazing (by his standards) and that does sit in the back of my mind a bit. Even so, I feel like I'm really stretching for any critiques. Noble has a much better chance of breaking of his personal best than not.

The only question, however, is by how much?

List three of the most underappreciated 5k runners in this field and give one sentence worth of analysis why you think they are underappreciated.

Isaac Green (Washington): After running 13:27 (5K) last spring and 7:49 (3k) this past winter, Green owns elite-level marks that make him one of the best in the nation...and no one seems to be talking about him.

Kyle Mau (Indiana): I have no idea how he still has eligibility, but given that this dynamic star-level talent has been one of my favorite athletes to cover, I can't say that I'm complaining.

Matthew Pereira (Harvard): In a world where Harvard teammate Acer Iverson doesn't exist, Pereira would have won two Ivy League titles this past winter and a lot more attention.

Final Predictions (all heats, collegiates only):

1. Kyle Mau (Indiana)

2. Isaac Green (Washington)

3. Luke Houser (Washington)

4. Ben Veatch (Indiana)

5. Christian Noble (Lee (Tenn.))

6. Matthew Pereira (Harvard)

7. Ian Shanklin (NC State)

8. Dan Schaeffer (Binghamton)

Women's 10,000 Meters

Who are you the most unsure about in this 10k field?

Can I say like 10 women? I have A LOT of questions about many of the women in this field.

NC State's Dominique Clairmonte probably takes the cake when it comes to this made up pre-race uncertainty award.

Last spring, she was a DNF in both the 10k and in the 5k (per TFRRS). This past fall, she underwhelmed a bit despite being amazing in the fall of 2020. Then, at Boston University back in December, her TFRRS profile shows two DNF results in the 5k and the 3k.

Let's be clear: Clairmonte is an elite talent who deserves plenty of respect. When she's at 100%, she is one of the most challenging names in the NCAA to take down.

The only issue that we don't really know where her fitness is. We know that she can be one of the best in the country when it comes to the 10k, owning a personal best of 32:50, but will she replicate that mark on Thursday night?

I'm also curious to see what Toledo's Stephanie Sherman will do on Thursday night. She was one of the feel-good stories of last spring when she shockingly landed the second-to-last national qualifying spot to the national meet.

At the national meet, she placed 16th overall.

I don't have any doubts that Sherman is a national-caliber talent. Her strong 10k and 5k personal bests, paired with her national qualifying mark, were flat-out impressive.

However, Sherman was admittedly a surprise qualifier for last year's national meet after being such a low seed coming into the field. She has also not raced at all (per TFRRS) since the 2021 outdoor track season.

So much time has passed without any results from Sherman, so it's hard to really know what we should expect from this Toledo Rocket in her 2022 debut.

If I had to give one final name, I think I would have to say Washington's Allie Schadler. I have absolutely no idea what to expect from her and frankly, I'm not sure if anyone else really has a great idea, either.

Schadler is an elite talent when she's at her best, owing personal bests of 4:31 (mile), 8:58 (3k) and 15:33 (5k, unattached). However, the Husky ace wasn't quite firing all cylinders this past indoor season. She still posted solid, nationally competitive times, but none that reached her former elite-level of fitness.

Now, the Washington veteran is going to be contesting the 10k, an event that, according to TFRRS, she has never run before!

At her peak, Schadler's aerobic strength can clearly give her a top finisher. However, we have no idea what to expect from her in this loaded field that will likely be fairly quick.

Which D2 runner is more likely to come out on top in this 10k race: Celine Ritter or Jessica Gockley?

This is an interesting question and I'm not sure that there is one solid answer.

Most D2 fans would agree that Ritter has had the better overall career. She thrives in a variety of different distances and generally speaking, has been better than Gockley.

However, Gockley is coming off of an indoor track season that was arguably the best of her career. She peaked perfectly for the postseason and historically, she is at her best the longer the racing distance becomes. The 10k, for example, has been one of her marquee racing distances.

Ritter, meanwhile, is moving up in distance to race this 10k. In fact, depending on who you ask, the 5k was already a (very slight) move up in distance for her to begin with.

Given that Ritter is moving away from her ideal racing distance and Gockley is moving closer towards hers, I actually think I'll go with the Grand Valley State veteran in this one.

Which three women in this field are supposedly at their best when racing the 10k distance?

Washington's Haley Herberg is undoubtedly at her best the longer the racing distance becomes. She's the Jessica Gockley of Division One. Herberg thrives in aggressively paced races and is willing to go to the front. She has built her reputation in cross country and her 5k personal best sits at 15:36.

Oh, and she ran 32:35 (10k) last spring en route to All-American honors.

Every mark on Herberg's resume validates the idea that she is an aerobic beast who clearly thrives in endurance and strength-based races. You can see that fairly clearly when looking at the progression of her personal bests.

I would almost never suggest an underclassman for a race like the 10k, but I actually like NC State's Gionna Quarzo quite a bit. Her last two races resulted in a 3k personal best (9:24) and a 5k personal best (16:15).

The Wolfpack youngster, who is a sophomore, held her own quite well during cross country. Last spring, she ran 33:24 for 10,000 meters at the ACC Championships and was just one spot away from a national qualifying spot two weeks later.

Quarzo very clearly gravitates towards the longer distances. After this weekend, she'll have raced more 10k races in her still-young college career than outdoor 5k races or indoor 3k races. Expect her to run something noticeably faster on Thursday night as she becomes more comfortable with this distance.

As for the third runner, I think I'll go with Michigan State's Lynsie Gram. The Spartan veteran clearly trends towards the longer distances when looking at her personal bests of 9:16 (3k), 15:56 (5k) and 33:28 (10k).

Not only that, but Gram has been excellent in cross country, earning an All-American honor during the NCAA Winter XC Championships and then finishing just eight spots out from the same honor this past fall.

The only time Gram has ever qualified for a national meet on the track was last spring in the 10k. At the national meet, she ran her current 33:28 personal best.

Gram is perfectly suited for this race. She is clearly a strength-based longer distance runner who can seemingly do no wrong. Most of her success has come in races over 5000 meters and on paper, she seems like a safe pick to run well on Thursday.

Is there a singular title favorite in this field?

Much like the men's 1500 meters, it seems like there are a ton of women who could be considered as title threats for this 10k race. However, when it comes to this distance specifically, there isn't necessarily one woman who stick out over the others.

Minnesota's Bethany Hasz is an elite distance talent, but her 10k personal best of 33:30 isn't so much better than the other women in this field. It's a similar story for Duke's Michaela Reinhart who has run 33:26.

Georgia Tech's Nicole Fegans does own a quicker personal best at 32:45 and she won the ACC title in this race last spring, but she only has two 10k races under her belt (ever).

Washington's Haley Herberg is likely going to be near the front of this race, but her front-running tactics haven't always produced winning results (depending on the setting).

The Georgetown duo of Sami Corman and Maggie Donahue are two highly underrated distance talents. However, neither woman has contested the 10k before. The same can be said for recent NC State standout Alexandra Hays.

Sherman? Schadler? Clairmonte? Well, as we mentioned earlier, they all have a few question marks surrounding them that leave us unsure how to gauge their potential in this race.

In the end, there isn't one true favorite in this field. If I had to pick one, I'd say Nicole Fegans. She's still new to this event, but she has one of the fastest personal bests in the field and won the ACC title in this exact event last spring.

Who are three women not entered in the fast heat who are capable of making some noise in this race?

Butler's Emily Royston is absolutely on my radar. She's not in the fastest heat, but I feel like Royston is one of the more underrated distance talents in the nation. She has a good history of producing quick times and top finishes on the grass.

Her 10k personal best of 35:54 is due for a rest and I think her 5k personal best of 16:13 supports that assertion. In this field, she should be able to put herself near the front and thrive off of whatever pace is given to her.

If she can replicate her 2019 cross country success and translate that fitness to this race, then Royston is going to surprise quite a few people (except for those reading TSR, of course).

As for my next name, I think a lot of us are forgetting about Florida State's Elizabeth Funderburk. She has run 33:31 for 10,000 meters before and on paper, that time would have been good enough to make her an entrant in the fastest heat.

With a 16:05 (5k) personal best, the raw talent is clearly there for Funderburk to have major success on Thursday night.

The issue, however, is that since the fall of 2020, Fundburk has only raced twice which came this past winter. Neither result was necessarily exciting, but talent rarely just disappears.

There are still questions about how she will perform in her first outdoor race in three years, but at the very least, we know she's talented enough to be a factor.

If I'm going for a super deep sleeper pick, then I'll say Furman's Emily Little. I think many of these younger Furman runners could (eventually) be great in the 10k and it looks like Coach Rita Gary is in agreement.

Little doesn't have the same times that stand out compared to a few of these women, but she was fairly consistent this past winter. She improved her 5k personal best and based on her resume, it seems like she does better the longer the race becomes.

If you're looking for a breakout race candidate, take a glance at Emily Little. I could see a new PR in the low 34-minute range for her by the end of Thursday night.

Final Predictions (all heats, collegiates only):

1. Nicole Fegans (Georgia Tech)

2. Dominique Clairmonte (NC State)

3. Bethany Hasz (Minnesota)

4. Haley Herberg (Washington)

5. Gionna Quarzo (NC State)

6. Lynsie Gram (Michigan State)

7. Stephanie Sherman (Toledo)

8. Jessica Gockley (Grand Valley State)