The Group Chat: 2023 Free Agency (Part One)

Questions & edits via Garrett Zatlin

Answers via Maura Beattie, Finn Birnie, Scotty Loughlin & Gavin Struve

The offseason is here which means that transfers are plentiful around the NCAA nowadays. This, in turn, has left our group of writers here at The Stride Report with PLENTY to talk about. Below, we posed a handful of questions about some of the biggest college moves of the last few months to see what our writers thoughts were.

Here was what they said...

Maura: Honestly, no, I was not surprised at all.

Albuquerque, New Mexico isn’t exactly the most ideal place for training with the hotter temperatures (although the altitude could help). And when you combine a smaller town/city with the departure of Coach Joe Franklin, who accepted a position at Louisville, numerous Lobos entering the transfer portal are expected.

Finn: I’m with Maura on this one. I’m not surprised in the slightest.

A coaching change as significant as Joe Franklin leaving for Louisville certainly presents the opportunity to look elsewhere for a lot of these women. Plus, many of these ladies are graduate students which makes the schooling transition a bit more straightforward. Those two factors combined provide the Lobos with the perfect chance to explore their options.

I’m very intrigued to see if some of them follow Coach Joe Franklin to the University of Louisville. Sure, Thorner and Mazza-Downie are already going to Florida, but will there be a spot for Grice, Upshaw, Larkin or someone else?

Scotty: It looks like we’re all in sync about not being surprised.

Finn took the words right out of my mouth in presenting both angles of this. On one hand, it’s a major coaching change and for many of these athletes, that training situation was their primary reason for shacking up in Albuquerque.

From an academic standpoint, multiple women who entered the portal were finished with their undergraduate degrees, giving them further reason to consider relocating for their final years of competing during the pursuit of their graduate degrees.

Gavin: It’s hard to attribute fault to or be surprised by any athletes entering the transfer portal after a coaching change. So in this new era of athlete movement and the transfer portal, I agree with my colleagues that it absolutely makes sense for several of the Lobo women to look to continue their careers elsewhere.

The impact of the news comes not from any shock factor of their decision, but from the magnitude of talents like Amelia Mazza-Downie and Elise Thorner reaching the open market, however briefly.

It may qualify as a minor surprise if none of them join Joe Franklin at Louisville, but it’s hard to blame these experienced NCAA stars for not wanting to take part in a rebuild if only a few were to leave.

Maura:

Gracelyn Larkin to Florida: Larkin seems like a shoe-in for transferring to the Gators if the money is available. The rising senior could benefit from continuing to train alongside former teammates and recent Florida transfers, Amelia Mazza-Downie and Elise Thorner.

Maisie Grice to Oklahoma State: The Cowgirls are in need of a new top-five cross country runner given the departure of Natalie Cook and Grice could be that runner given her solid strength in the steeplechase and promising leg speed over 1500 meters.

Aliandrea Upshaw to Northern Arizona: The Arizona native would bode well with the Lumberjacks as she is a reliable middle-of-the-pack runner for a top-tier group and has years of experience under her belt that will aid in Northern Arizona searching for a podium finish.

Scotty: I really have no idea, but Florida has been spoiled enough already, so I’m going to refrain from selecting the Gators for any of these transfers...

Gracelyn Larkin to Virginia: The Cavaliers’ stock is sky-high heading into the 2023 cross country season and the addition of an established veteran low-stick like Larkin would be monumental. A one-two punch of her and Margot Appleton would be thrilling to watch in the ACC and she could be a key mentor for the talented young core that Virginia boasts.

Maisie Grice to Michigan: The Wolverines weren’t able to fully capitalize on their treasure trove of talent last fall, but a move to Ann Arbor would allow Grice to be a featured piece of a dark horse lineup potentially featuring Kayla Windemuller, Katelynne Hart and Samantha Tran. It's also possible that veteran Ericka VanderLende returns, although there are some eligibility conflicts shown on her TFRRS profile.

Aliandrea Upshaw to Louisville: We have to expect at least one of these women to reunite with their coach, right? How about Aliandrea Upshaw? She has multiple years of eligibility across all seasons and could be part of the Cardinals’ foundation for the future.

Finn: Like Scotty said, I feel like Florida have had their fair share of talented transfers That being said, I see a trend here and I have an inkling that Elise Thorner will not be the last Lobo to join the Gators...

Gracelyn Larkin to Florida: For me, Larkin fits the profile that Florida is after as she could very well be the final piece of puzzle in terms of scorers for the Gators. Plus, it's hard to say no when two of your pals are off to the Sunshine State!

Maisie Grice to Oklahoma State: I love this pick from Maura! Her unique steeplechase and middle distance profile works well with what the Cowgirls are after and her prowess on the grass cannot be understated.

Aliandrea Upshaw to Louisville: Like Scotty said, surely someone has to reunite with Coach Joe Franklin. Upshaw’s multiple years of eligibility could make her the perfect candidate to join the Cardinals as it gives her plenty of time to develop under the coach whom she had planned to work with upon recruiting.

Gavin:

Gracelyn Larkin to Oregon: Florida probably makes the most sense for Larkin, but I’m not confident enough about that happening to make it a near-consensus pick in our TSR matchmaking service. So how about Oregon? The Ducks have yet to add a transfer during this offseason cycle, and despite already being one of the preeminent distance programs in the NCAA, Oregon is on an upwards trajectory under new distance coach Shalane Flanagan.

Maisie Grice to Louisville: I’m with the others that it makes sense for someone to join Joe Franklin in the Bluegrass State. Coming off of her most successful season by far, it may make sense for Grice to follow her coach and continue her development as his next star over the water pits and barriers with the Cardinals.

Aliandrea Upshaw to Northern Arizona: I’m with Maura that a Northern Arizona homecoming seems ideal for Upshaw, particularly because she’s an aerobic-based talent. Her long distance focus will fit perfectly with the Lumberjacks’ ethos and she can add to their burgeoning women’s program.

Maura: As much as I want to predict a top-five national meet finish for the Gators, I’m still not entirely sold on the backend of the team right now. Yes, having Amelia Mazza-Downie, Elise Thorner and Flomena Asekol team up with front-running superstar Parker Valby could create a fierce quartet. But the 5-6-7 women in this lineup are who make me scratch my head.

Who can Florida rely on?

Recent transfer Allison Wilson of Alabama could be helpful. She did, after all, run 16:05 (5k) unattached this past spring. But the incoming transfer hasn’t officially raced attached in a collegiate cross country race since October of 2020. Rust will surely need to be busted.

Veteran Jordan Shapiro made significant gains on the track this past spring, debuting over 5000 meters and recording a PR of 16:42. The rising senior could add some depth later this fall.

But from there, I get a little lost. I’m not sure if the talent on this roster is yet capable of a top-five finish among NCAA cross country teams this fall. So with that being said, I’ve got to say Florida could be a top-10 team, but I need to see more backend stability.

Finn: I don’t think a top-five spot for the Florida Gators is out of the question. Amelia Mazza-Downie, Elise Thorner and Flomena Asekol provide some vital firepower to back up the ever-talented Parker Valby. Barring any disasters, you’re looking at four All-Americans.

But the biggest question for the Gators is...do they have a final scorer?

When it comes to the national stage, places are lost and gained primarily through your backend runners. We have seen how vital Brodey Hasty has been over the years for the Northern Arizona men, so Florida is going to have to make sure that the likes of Allison Wilson and Jordan Shapiro are in top form.

Shapiro, in particular, was progressing superbly this past outdoor track season, so she could be the key to the Gators' success later this fall.

Scotty: I’m hopping on the Florida bandwagon right now. I have a different take on the fifth runner conundrum that my fellow writers have tried to solve.

If they all perform up to their full potential, then it’s not out of the question to expect the quartet of Valby, Asekol, Mazza-Downie and Thorner to accrue somewhere in the ballpark of 50 points combined at the NCAA XC Championships.

Going off of last year’s national meet results as a benchmark for points, a team total of 200 points (if they really struggled to find a viable fifth scorer) would land the Gators at 4th place overall in the final standings. A total of 150 points (slightly more aggressive, but not impossible) would move them up to 3rd place.

Simply put, when it comes to Florida’s final scorer…who cares?

Their top-four is strong enough to carry this team to a top-five national meet finish no matter who their fifth runner is. And if they’re able to fill it, then you’re looking at a team that could contend for a national title.

Gavin: As currently constructed, the Florida women seem to have a very similar lineup structure to Alabama last year with four All-Americans and a drop off to their fifth scorer.

Perhaps I’m deriving that parallel largely from the fact that the Gators now employ the Crimson Tide’s former distance coach, Will Palmer, who was joined a few months later by proven star, Flomena Asekol.

But Florida’s current fifth scorer, their biggest question mark, appears to be Allison Wilson, another Alabama transfer. She flashed potential as a freshman, but didn’t even race at the NCAA XC Championships for the Crimson Tide last fall.

Still, that lineup structure got Alabama a 3rd place finish at the national meet.

Florida arguably has an even better low-stick in Parker Valby, but Mazza-Downie and Thorner may need to improve upon what were already All-American showings to match the four women who their new coach guided to top-16 finishes in 2022.

All that’s to say, a podium or top-five finish should be the goal for the Florida women in 2023.

Maura: As crazy as this sounds, I’ve got to go with a 10.

The Colorado program under Coach Mark Wetmore is very strength-based and for someone who is susceptible to injuries, Natalie Cook and/or the Buffaloes' coaching staff will have a lot of adjustments to make.

I’m curious to see how Cook, who reportedly says she spends a majority of her week cross-training and running extremely low mileage on the ground, takes on the likes of Magnolia Road and the altitude of Boulder, Colorado.

Finn: This is easily an 8 for me.

There is no doubting Colorado’s prowess as a distance school and Cook’s talent will certainly be a much needed boost to their roster. But I just can’t help but agree with Maura in the fact that it seems like an odd fit due to her injury record.

It will also be interesting to see how she fares living and training up at altitude. Cook is as talented as they come and I’m sure she will be an integral part in Mark Wetmore’s new project, but I just had a few other schools in mind for her.

Scotty: I’ll agree with Finn by saying 8 out of 10.

The biggest contributor to my surprise was the combination of Cook’s youth and early success in Stillwater, Oklahoma. As a freshman on the grass, she put together one of the most dominant rookie seasons in recent NCAA history.

While her indoor track season was not as kind to her due to injuries, she still ran 15:24 (5k) at Boston University in December before shutting down her racing prior to the national meet.

Maura makes a great point regarding mileage, but given Coach Mark Wetmore’s historic career as a coach, I have no doubt that he’ll figure out the right buttons to press to put Cook in a position to succeed.

Gavin: I’ll join Finn and Scotty with a surprise factor of 8.

I struggle to offer a higher number when we’ve had so many transfer moves and surprises in recent years. Plus, it could be argued that Cook’s youth makes the move less surprising, or perhaps less emotionally devastating, for the program that she left after less than a year.

None of that makes the move any less significant as it removes an elite talent from one national title contender and affords her to another.

Given her eligibility and upside, Cook is the most valuable transfer name this year. She’s also one of the more surprising transfers which makes this a true summer blockbuster move.

Maura: Marlee Starliper going from one powerhouse team to another powerhouse team is no surprise, so I’m going to say 4 out of 10 for me on her commitment to Colorado. I thought Starliper might stay out east, but venturing out to Colorado is a good move for someone who is long distance-focused.

Finn: I’m fairly split on this one, so I’m going to say 5 out of 10.

Colorado is one of the most prestigious distance programs in the nation, so an athlete as distance-focused as Marlee Starliper would fit in seamlessly.

But much of what has been said about Cook previously can be said about Starliper. The former Wolfpack runner is an immense talent who has struggled with injury, so Colorado’s reputation and style of training (historically) may not have been my first pick if I was an athlete susceptible to injury.

However, with the addition of Cook, Katie Doucette and Samree Dishon, there is a clear vision towards a national title, and it’s not surprising that Starliper wants to be a crucial part of Coach Mark Wetmore’s newest project.

Scotty: I promise I’m not copying Finn, but once again, I agree. I feel like 5 out of 10 is right.

If this happened 10 years ago, I’d be more shocked to see a young-ish athlete (or someone who has a lot of eligibility) transferring who had success at their old program, but in the current era of the NCAA, it’s not uncommon in the slightest.

Looking at Starliper’s situation more specifically, Colorado seems like a great fit for her to spend the second-half of her collegiate career. She’ll have time to acclimate to the altitude in Boulder and if all goes well, she could become one of the premiere distance runners in the PAC-12 over the next few seasons.

Gavin: I agree that this move and pairing seems rational, but I certainly didn’t have Starliper to Colorado atop my offseason bingo card, so I’ll give this a 6.

Given her recent injury struggles, it made sense for Starliper to transfer. But I may have expected her to stay somewhere north or on the east coast. Regardless, it’s a beneficial move for both parties as Starliper joins a proven distance power and adds to its sudden influx of elite talent.

Maura: The Buffaloes will (theoretically) be relying on veteran Emily Covert and then a slew of recent transfers, which does include 2022 transfers Bailey Hertenstein and Ella Baran, to bring them home a team trophy this fall.

Covert, Hertenstein, Baran, Cook, Starliper, Doucette and Dishon all have national-level experience and bring with them a handful of All-American honors. Obviously, they are insanely talented, but there’s one glaring caveat.

The injury history of this roster is as long as my chore list.

A majority of the names mentioned above have been hit by the injury bug quite a bit since entering the NCAA system and the heavy mileage that Colorado’s Coach Mark Wetmore often assigns (historically speaking) could sideline one or two of those athletes. That's not to say that the Buffaloes' coaching staff won't make individual adjustments for each athlete, but it is something to consider.

So am I going to say that the Buffaloes are a national title contender this fall? No. In my eyes, there are just too many moving pieces that need to fall into place for that to happen.

Scotty: On paper, I view Colorado as national title contenders, but my gut says that it won’t translate to the grass this fall.

As Maura mentioned, much of their talented young core is coming off of a wide range of injuries. And truthfully, it would simply be too optimistic to expect them all be operating at 100% by November.

Last fall, the Buffalo women finished an uncharacteristic 11th place at the NCAA XC Championships. With the influx of transfer talent, I expect them to round into the form of a team in the 4th place through 8th place range. Anything above that feels too good to be true given the injury history of their scoring lineup.

Gavin: The Colorado women enter this season as bonafide title contenders in spite of finishing outside of the top-10 at the 2022 NCAA XC Championships. There’s just too much talent here to discount.

They’ll need some injury luck, and a podium finish may be a more realistic goal, but I see the Buffaloes as a notch ahead of fellow transfer portal winner Florida despite similar talent levels. That’s largely because Colorado has been at/near the top of the NCAA before, recently finishing 4th overall in the fall of 2021.

A fully-realized Emily Covert alongside Bailey Hertenstein and newcomer Natalie Cook, could provide three top-15 talents on the national stage. Ella Baran, Samree Dishon, Marlee Starliper, Katie Doucette and Hannah Miniutti all provide All-American-caliber depth that at least warrants a seat at the national title table for Colorado.

Finn: I totally agree with you, Gavin.

What really sets Colorado apart is the fact that they have been there (the top of the national rankings) before. The talent influx is undeniable and for me, there is no doubt about them being able to finish on the podium if all goes to plan.

As mentioned by everyone above, any concern more about getting everyone to the starting line healthy than it is about doubting their abilities. Mark Wetmore has a wealth of experience with a variety of different athletes, so there is no one better suited to the task than him.

Gavin: This may sound like it’s coming out of nowhere, but...what about Providence?

The Friars would be a sound fit, stylistically, for Howell who is a miler with some untapped potential on the cross country course. In fact, Providence coach Ray Treacy’s squad recently finished as a finalist in TSR’s 2023 Outdoor Track "Best Team / Distance Coach" award.

Not only that, but this BIG East program has arguably enjoyed its greatest success (as of late) in Howell’s premier event(s), the mile and the 1500 meters.

The Friars sent two women to the NCAA Outdoor Championships over 1500 meters this past spring. And one of those women, Shannon Flockhardt, has gotten the best of Howell in back-to-back outdoor national meet finals.

The Friars, who finished 16th at the NCAA XC Championships, were also more accomplished on the grass than Illinois, a team which only sent Howell to the national meet. Not to mention, Providence is also not significantly further from the Ohio native’s hometown than Champaign, Illinois is.

Maura: I agree with Gavin that Providence is a solid choice, but I think Virginia would be a great spot for Howell.

The mile national title winner would find a solid training partner in Margot Appleton who could give the UVA women a lethal 1-2 punch on the oval. The Cavaliers also have a great middle distance recruiting class coming in, headlined by Tatum David. And with the promise that this team has shown on the grass, what’s not to like about Charlottesville?

Scotty: I would be thrilled to see Howell travel across the country to don an Oregon singlet.

Coach Shalane Flanagan has already established NCAA credibility after one year in Eugene and has built a middle distance powerhouse with the elite duo of Klaudia Kazimierska and Izzy Thornton-Bott as well as breakout talents in Ella Nelson and Maddy Elmore.

They’re already the best 1500 meter crew in the nation, but if Howell were added, then you’d be looking at the Ducks like an untouchable juggernaut on the oval.