Five Things To Watch: 2022 SEC XC Championships

Just last year, the SEC was dominated by Arkansas and Ole Miss on both the men’s and women’s sides. However, since then, both programs have found themselves in a rebuilding stage after the departures and professional career decisions of a few noteworthy stars such as Amon Kemoi, Emmanuel Cheboson, Gilbert Boit, Mario Garcia Romo, Lauren Gregory, Krissy Gear and Sintayehu Vissa, among others.

Now, the door is open for a new crop of SEC standouts – some established veterans and some young, high-upside talents – to take center stage and forge their names into the history books of this conference championship meet, all while sharpening up for the NCAA XC Championships which are still to come.

The following are a handful of key storylines and matchups to watch at tomorrow's SEC XC Championships...

In a year where all signs point to Katelyn Tuohy being untouchable in her quest for the individual national title, question marks have begun to flow in, leaving us to ask, “Who has the best chance of at least challenging Tuohy for the national title?”

It very well could be the winner of the SEC XC Championships.

The argument in favor of Mercy Chelangat winning this race is her experience and consistency. After all, this is an athlete who has already won a national title on the grass during the 2021 winter cross country season, was runner-up at the cross country national meet last fall and owns a national title on the track over 10,000 meters.

And while Chelangat's 2022 cross country campaign hasn't necessarily been flawless, the Alabama ace still was able to take down everyone but Tuohy in a strong Joe Piane field which featured numerous top-10 runners.

However, the compelling case that you could make for Valby’s chances at gold is her unbelievable talent ceiling...which she doesn’t even seem to have. In our eyes, the sky is the limit for this Gator ace.

Though the edge would go to Chelangat when evaluating the competitiveness of fields that these two women have toed the line for this season, there are two factors that make Valby a sneaky-good pick to win tomorrow's race.

First, she finished over a minute ahead of Ohio State’s Addie Engel (TSR #20) at the Arturo Barrios Invitational which is no small feat. Not only that, but she cracked the 19-minute barrier for 6000 meters! That's insane!
 

Second, and going back to our original question, the Florida ace was the last athlete to legitimately give Katelyn Tuohy a run for her money last spring in the 5000 meters at the NCAA Outdoor Championships.

Chelangat is the proven and safe bet while Valby is the lightning-in-a-bottle, scary-talented gamble. Either woman could win the SEC title and whoever it is will not only be taking a conference championship home – they’ll also be sending a message to Tuohy that she might have some company in Stillwater, Oklahoma at the national meet.

The Alabama women are unquestionably the favorites at the SEC XC Championships, but which team is more likely to secure silver as a team: Kentucky, Ole Miss or Arkansas?

Of these three teams, the Kentucky Wildcats have the top duo in Perri Bockrath and Tori Herman. Bockrath has been having an absolute monster breakout season while Herman has continued her progression as a low-stick for this Kentucky lineup.

However, much of the Wildcats’ performance in this field will rest on the shoulders of their third scorer, Sydney Steely.

A recent graduate transfer from Mississippi State who has built her reputation in the middle distance events, Steely has provided the Kentucky women with a pleasantly surprising middle-lineup scorer who holds underrated value.

The SEC veteran finished 49th at the Cowboy Jamboree earlier this season and then 25th place finish at the Panorama Farms XC23 Invitational.

Limiting the scoring drop-off between Herman and Steely could be the x-factor that allows the Wildcats to sneak ahead of their competitors for runner-up honors...although Kentucky's final two scorers also have plenty of work as well.

Meanwhile, Arkansas debatably boasts the strongest individual runner in this tier of teams via Isabel Van Camp. The Razorback ace is on a sure-fire path towards another All-American finish, but will the Arkansas women have enough scoring support behind her to hold off Kentucky and Ole Miss?

Through their second and third scorers, Sydney Thorvaldson and Mia Cochran, the Arkansas women have a reliable foundation, but their remaining scorers have been further back this season, ultimately hurting the Razorbacks in larger fields.

Arkansas' scoring options at those backend varsity spots are talented and proven athletes such Gracie Hyde, Taylor Ewert and Katie McCune. There are also a handful of younger runners who could be utilized.

If two of those options can finish closer to Thorvaldson and Cochran on Friday, then Arkansas could finish runner-up somewhat comfortably.

The Ole Miss women lack a household name or a true low-stick this season, but they have pack-run fairly well as a cohesive unit. By limiting their time-spread to 46 seconds at the Panorama Farms, the Rebels were able to edge the Kentucky women by six points and take home silver as a team.

None of these teams stand head and shoulders above their competition at this tier. Expect a close finish in the results in the battle for SEC silver.

Earlier this month, the Tennessee men and Alabama men battled via an epic showdown with the Volunteers getting the edge...and that was just the football game!

Now, as we shift to the cross country course, these two titans of the SEC will face off as the most likely squads to take home the conference team title.

Neither group has raced in a ton of elite-caliber fields this season, but they did match up at the Joe Piane Invitational in South Bend, Indiana back in late September. On that occasion, Tennessee placed ahead of the Crimson Tide by a somewhat narrow-ish 22-point margin, but the blueprint for these teams to take home SEC gold on Friday is quite different.

Alabama is expected to be stronger through their first trio of runners as Victor Kiprop, Eliud Kipsang and Hillary Cheruiyot will all be in contention for the individual win.

However, much like the 2020 Ole Miss men who finished 1-2-3 in this meet, the Crimson Tide remain vulnerable given the unreliability of their fourth and fifth scorers, even if they have found great scoring stability at this spots this fall.

When it comes to the men from Tuscaloosa, the outline for winning this race is fairly obvious: If Alabama’s front three run up to their full potential, and their backend limits excessive scoring, then the Crimson Tide should win.

But the Tennessee Volunteers have a game plan for success, too.

The Vols' first point of emphasis must be Dylan Jacobs and Yaseen Abdalla knocking off at least one of Alabama’s top-three scorers. Even if Kiprop or Kipsang win, having Jacobs and Abdalla finish ahead of Cheruiyot (or whoever Alabama's third scorer is) would really put the pressure on Alabama’s remaining scorers.

The risk on Tennessee’s end is the drop-off between their top-five and their non-scoring varsity runners. We may be knit-picking their Joe Piane result, but given that it’s been the Volunteers’ only national-caliber challenge thus far, it should be noted that there was a 47-point gap between Tennessee’s fifth scorer and their sixth runner.

With this in mind, we're expecting NC State graduate transfer Nate Kawalec, who has run 13:39 for 5000 meters, to return to this lineup for Tennessee on Friday. And if he's racing at 100%, then any concerns about Tennessee's lineup gaps become far more negligible.

That's why, on paper, the Vols will be favored to take home gold.

Of course he can!

Alabama's Eliud Kipsang certainly isn’t the odds-on favorite in this race (his teammate Victor Kiprop is), but he debatably has the most elite-level of fitness.

Although that fitness has traditionally shined on the track, Kipsang has shown up in big moments on the grass multiple times throughout his career. In fact, most recently at the Joe Piane Invitational, he posted a massive 3rd place result in a national-caliber field which theoretically exceeds what this SEC slate of runners will produce.

However, the downside with Kipsang, on both the oval and the cross country course, is that he has been lacked consistency. Outside of Joe Piane, he finished 5th at the North Alabama Showcase and 4th at the Alabama Crimson Classic this fall.

Regardless, we know that Kipsang has the talent to win this race if everything clicks and if he runs up to his full potential. But if he wants to win another SEC title on the grass, then he better be able to hold pace with his superstar teammate (Kiprop) and then rely on his wicked finishing speed to carry him across the finish line with the victory.

And remember, Tennessee's Dylan Jacobs will likely be even better this time around compared to what he produced at Joe Piane.

A Kipsang would be somewhat surprising, but after shocking us last year at the SEC XC Championships, we must keep him on our radar.

The Arkansas duo of Patrick Kiprop and Elias Schreml have the best chance to emerge with top-five individual results in this field.

The Razorbacks haven’t faced the same level of competition that the Tennessee men or Alabama men have toed the line against so far this season, but Kiprop and Schreml have maintained solid top-15 performances in respectable fields at the Chile Pepper XC Festival and at Pre-Nationals.

Next in line seems to be Auburn's Ryan Kinnane. The rising distance standout has competed in even smaller fields than the aforementioned Razorbacks, but his 6th place finish at the Alabama Crimson Classic, narrowly behind the Crimson Tide’s Eliud Kipsang and Hillary Cheruiyot, offers optimism that he’ll be able to challenge those men up front on Friday.

The last two men who have a shot (on paper) of breaking into the top-five are Ole Miss’ Anthony Camerieri and Cole Bullock.

It’s no secret that Bullock has struggled this season in a major way, but lest we forget, this is an athlete who has finished 9th (2019), 2nd (2020) and 7th (2021) throughout his career at the SEC XC Championships.

If there's race where Bullock can return to his prior peak form, it's the SEC XC Championships.

Camerieri, a recent graduate transfer from Miami (Ohio), has made an instant impact for the Rebels this season with a win at the SEC XC Preview and a 5th place finish at the Panorama Farms XC23 Invitational.

Despite an “off” day at the Cowboy Jamboree, where Camerieri placed 61st, his stock has been on the rise and in theory, this top-heavy field at the SEC XC Championships should lead to a strong result from him.

There are, of course, other underrated candidates who could pull off a top-five finish, but these men are certainly the main names to watch.

Teams (Men)

Individuals (Men)

Teams (Women)

Individuals (Women)