Five Things To Watch: 2022 BIG 12 XC Championships

Maura Beattie
Oct 25, 2022
11 min read

The BIG 12 XC Championships are always a top-heavy conference meet which feature some of the best teams and individuals that the NCAA has to offer. And while this year's 2022 meet may not be quite as strong as it has been in year's past, there are still a lot of fascinating insights that we could end up pulling from these results.

NOTE: This article has been edited post-publication to reflect the release of the BIG 12 XC Championship entries.

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Take Your Pick: The Cowgirl Duo vs The Lone Mountaineer

Going into Friday, Oklahoma State is expected to boast a lineup which features superstar freshman Natalie Cook as well as NCAA 3k indoor champion, Taylor Roe. West Virginia, meanwhile, will likely be fielding 2021 NCAA XC Championship bronze medallist and steeplechase ace, Ceili McCabe.

Between those three women, this is a can’t-miss race.

Cook (TSR #3) might only be a freshman and might only have one race under her belt this season. However, she raced like an absolute pro at the Cowboy Jamboree. In her first-ever collegiate race, Cook picked up the win, pulling away from teammate Taylor Roe to win by three seconds.

That was a massive performance, proving to us that Cook still has tons of untapped upside from her historic high school campaign and that her ceiling in 2022 is theoretically limitless. There's a very real scenario where she just outruns her competition on Friday.

The young Cowgirl is a gutsy runner and will surely not let this race get away from her. That said, Roe and McCabe won’t make this race easy. They are, after all, far more experienced, especially when it comes to racing each other.

Roe (TSR #4) has been on the cusp of winning the BIG 12 XC Championships over the last two seasons, finishing runner-up in 2020 and then 3rd in 2021.

Is this the year where she brings home gold?

The All-American talent has the fastest 5000 meter time in this field, owning a personal best of 15:21, and has some serious speed with her 4:13 PR over 1500 meters. The Cowgirl veteran will need to employ both of those aerobic and speed-based tools on Friday if she wants to outduel Cook and McCabe.

Even so, Roe’s runner-up finish at the Cowboy Jamboree is a good indicator of where she's at currently and a win here would set her up nicely for the postseason as she aims to be competitive with Mercy Chelangat and maybe Katelyn Tuohy.

On paper, Roe is probably the most well-rounded individual talent in this field...we think.

As for McCabe (TSR #7), she will look to rain on Oklahoma State’s parade this weekend. The rising superstar is the defending cross country conference champion after holding off Iowa State’s Cailie Logue at this same meet in 2021.

McCabe came out of nowhere last fall, taking the NCAA by storm with her individual Nuttycombe victory and then her aforementioned 3rd place finish at the national meet. On paper, her accomplishments aren't that far off from Roe and in terms of recent momentum, she has shown greater elite-level progression than almost any other woman in Division One over the last year.

The West Virginia ace has also won both of her races so far this season by considerable margins. However, the BIG 12 XC Championships will be McCabe’s first true test this fall.

So who are you choosing?

The established and experienced superstar veteran in Taylor Roe? The infinitely talented young phenom in Natalie Cook? Or the defending conference champion who has only gotten better since last fall in Ceili McCabe?

Honestly, one answer doesn't feel more correct than the others.

Which Team Will Finish Runner-Up Behind The Cowgirls?

The Oklahoma State women (TSR #3) should have a somewhat easy race this upcoming weekend when they travel to Lubbock, Texas for the BIG 12 XC Championships. That's because, simply put, the other teams are unable to match the overall firepower and depth on the Cowgirls' roster.

Natalie Cook and Taylor Roe are projected to finish among the top-three this weekend. Those two women, along with Ceili McCabe of West Virginia, have outdistanced themselves from the field and are practically guaranteed low-sticks.

Oklahoma State’s Billah Jepkirui and Gabby Hentemann will almost certainly give the Cowgirls two more athletes in the top-10, although they're probably favored to be closer to the top-five as, on paper, there just isn't anyone else in this field who has been better than them.

In total, that's four Oklahoma State women in the top-10 (at least) and maybe even four women in the top-five. At that point, it largely won't matter a ton where the Cowgirls' fifth scorer finishes, although it will be fascinating to see if Molly Born makes her season debut (more on her in a moment).

Behind Oklahoma State, the team with the best chance to earn runner-up honors should be the West Virginia women, although some Iowa State fans may disagree.

The Mountaineers finished 2nd to a respectable Furman team at the Louisville Classic earlier this season and just took home the victory at the Penn State National Open in an admittedly light field.

Ceili McCabe is WVU's star low-stick and is in the conversation to win the whole race. But we already know how talented she is. It's actually the next four runners in this lineup who we'll be monitoring on Friday.

Mikaela Lucki and Katherine Downie were a strong scoring duo at Penn State, finishing within two seconds of one another. They were both top-20 individuals at the 2021 BIG 12 XC Championships and could make the jump into the top-15 later this week.

In theory, that should give the Mountaineers enough scoring support to give them the runner-up spot. And frankly, with the BIG 12 seemingly a bit lighter in terms of competition this year, it wouldn't completely blow us away if Lucki and Downie cracked the top-10.

Charlotte Wood and Jeanne Reix Charat will need to make up some solid ground late in the race to give West Virginia reliable fourth and fifth scorers. Those two women haven’t been close enough to Lucki and Downie as we would like this fall, but when the stakes are high, there’s the possibility that Wood and Reix Charat will surprise us.

And if West Virginia doesn’t get 2nd place, then we don’t know who to place a bet on.

Iowa State and Texas are two historically talented teams. However, both programs are struggling to find the firepower upfront and the depth on each roster is a bit limited. Neither group has a true low-stick who could vie a top-five finish and they haven’t necessarily been impressive in their last few meets.

Even so, Iowa State seems like the next-best option to earn runner-up honors if West Virginia falters. While they certainly didn't have their best day at Nuttycombe, we also believe that they are slightly better than what that result suggests.

Iowa State Men Look To Save Their Season

A lot is riding on the line this weekend for the Cyclones. After starting the season at TSR #12, the Iowa State men dropped out of our team rankings following their lack-luster performance at Nuttycombe two weeks ago.

The men from Ames, Iowa struggled in Wisconsin, a meet that was extremely important in terms of picking up Kolas points. They settled for an underwhelming 22nd place finish.

Having Ezekiel Rop and Gable Sieperda finish 55th and 58th in that race, respectively, was fine, but what the Cyclones really needed was their back-half to finish within 30 to 40 places of those two runners in order to make some serious noise.

Without beating Harvard at Nuttycombe, the Cyclones may have missed out on a huge Kolas point. Unless the Providence men end up taking that second automatic qualifying spot in the Northeast region instead of Harvard, it's hard to find too many scenarios where Iowa State has enough points to qualify for this year's national meet.

And that's why it will be absolutely pivotal that the ISU men secure a win over Texas this Friday. With Oklahoma State and Tulsa likely taking the top-two automatic qualifying spots in the Midwest region, Iowa State will likely need to advance to the national meet on Kolas points. And if they can defeat the Longhorns, then they will almost certainly get one point from them.

But in order to beat Texas, the Iowa State men will need to have the better supporting cast. We feel confident that Rop and Sieperda can match the front portion of the Longhorns' varsity group, but after those two, things become less clear.

Titus Winders, an experienced transfer and multi-time D2 national champion on the track, hasn’t been quite as strong as we expected him to be, but there’s still a chance that he has his coming out party on Friday.

And if he does, then that would be huge towards Iowa State beating Texas.

The Cyclones desperately need a top-two finish this weekend to help them be a bubble team for the NCAA XC Championships next month. Few teams in the country have more pressure on them than Iowa State does this weekend.

Who Can Break Up An Oklahoma State Sweep?

Alex Maier of Oklahoma State is the undisputed title favorite on Friday. After he won the Cowboy Jamboree, the experienced Cowboy star has shown us that he is one of the absolute best distance talents in the nation.

If he truly goes all-out, then Maier should go uncontested at the front of this race against not only his teammates, but also his conference foes.

But...who will finish behind the veteran?

Oklahoma State’s Victor Shitsama has made a case for himself to be that runner-up finisher. The two-time cross country All-American talent had one of the best races of his career in his season debut at the Cowboy Jamboree. On his home course, the senior picked up a 3rd place finish, a mere half-second behind Stanford superstar, Charles Hicks.

If Shitsama can race the same way this weekend that we saw back in September, then he shouldn’t miss out on that runner-up finish.

We have to yet to see All-American standout Isai Rodriguez toe the line this fall. That, however, is not entirely surprising. Coach Dave Smith has a history of delaying the season debuts of his main low-stick stars.

At his best, Rodriguez could contend with Maier, although we don't know for sure just how good this Cowboy veteran will be on Friday.

Cowboy teammates Rory Leonard and Ryan Schoppe are two additional Oklahoma State names to keep an eye on.

Leonard impressed at the Cowboy Jamboree with his 17th place finish in a fairly deep field. The sophomore talent from the UK ran about 20 seconds faster this year compared to last and is sitting in a pretty good spot heading into the postseason.

Leonard has never cracked the top-10 in a cross country meet, but the BIG 12 XC Championships seem like a good place to do so unless every top low-stick in this field runs at their absolute best on Friday.

And then there’s Ryan Schoppe.

The sophomore ace has been a mainstay in the Cowboys' lineup so far during his still-young NCAA career thus far, but he has been a little up-and-down as far as his performances go.

His 6th place finish at last fall’s BIG 12 XC Championships gave us the idea that he would be a fringe top-40 runner on the national stage a few weeks later, but he ultimately struggled at the NCAA XC Championships.

However, Schoppe made some major gains on the oval, running 3:37 for 1500 meters, 3:57 in the mile and 7:46 for 3000 meters. Those are some elite marks which, on paper, suggest that he can be an All-American talent.

But the roller coaster ride that is Schoppe's cross country resume has been on full display so far this fall.

The 2022 cross country season has seen Schoppe contest two races. He had a rough race at the Cowboy Jamboree, falling to 98th. But then three weeks later, again on his home course, he put together a 7th place finish at Pre-Nationals and was one minute faster than what he ran during his season opener.

If he’s truly ready to be a top-five runner again for Oklahoma State, then the BIG 12 XC Championships is the time for Schoppe to show why he belongs at the front.

* * *

As you can see, trying to break up the juggernaut known at the Oklahoma State Cowboys looks like an impossible task right now. On paper, there's a very real argument that the men from Stillwater, Oklahoma may have the five-best distance runners in this field (if everyone runs like we think they will).

Still, there are a handful of men who could be factors to break them up.

Haftu Knight of Texas is a key name to watch who has been posting some sneaky-good performances as of late. The Longhorn veteran produced a strong 24th place finish at the Cowboy Jamboree earlier this season and recently posted a solid 8th place finish at the Panorama Farms Invite.

Knight has finished amongst the top-13 at the BIG 12 XC Championships on three different occasions throughout his career. However, Friday feels like his chance to make a career-defining leap as we enter the postseason.

Be sure to also keep an eye on fellow Texas runners, Isaac Alonzo and Rodger Rivera. The former was the Longhorns' top scorer at Panorama Farms, placing 7th, while the latter finished 30th overall at the Cowboy Jamboree back in September.

The Iowa State Cyclones, mentioned above, have Gable Sieperda and Ezekiel Rop who could be challengers to the Cowboys. Those two men are due for a big performance after not having their best races at Nuttycombe.

Rodriguez To Debut, But Foster & Born Remain Absent

With two meets still to go before the NCAA XC Championships, we will finally see the season debut of Oklahoma State’s Isai Rodriguez on Friday.

But Shea Foster and Molly Born? Unfortunately not.

Rodriguez was an All-American in 2018 when he finished 4th as a redshirt freshman. In the winter of 2021, he finished 8th and in the fall of 2021, he was 22nd. A fourth All-American honor could be possible for Rodriguez if he is anywhere near his top form.

The Oklahoma State veteran has been the runner-up finisher three times at the BIG 12 XC Championships and if it’s true that history repeats itself, then Rodriguez is due for another 2nd place finish. But at the same time, we don't quite know what kind of fitness he is currently in and it should be noted that he was in a severe car accident at the beginning of this year.

Rodriguez has been able to hold his own on the track since then, but we haven't quite seen him at 100% in many of those efforts around the oval.

But just as important as Rodriguez's return is the ongoing absence of Shea Foster and Molly Born who are arguably more impactful when it comes to Oklahoma State's postseason hopes.

When Foster transferred to Oklahoma State from Southeastern Louisiana, he transitioned fairly well to the Cowboy’s ways. A 14th place finish at the BIG 12 XC Championships was a solid performance before earning his first cross country All-American honor with a 27th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships last fall.

Foster, at his best, is an aerobic animal. But he has admittedly been on the quieter side in recent seasons. Seeing an All-American standout like himself continue to be absent for the Cowboys is admittedly a bit concerning for a team that likely had title aspirations coming into this season.

And then we have Molly Born. She was a name who we were pretty high on heading into this cross country season. The Cowgirl veteran was an All-American back in 2019 when she was a surprising 16th place at the national meet. She performed well during the winter 2021 cross country season and was solid again during the fall, but was unable to piece together another All-American run.

The senior hasn’t raced since finishing 73rd at the NCAA XC Championships last fall, making it increasingly more challenging to believe that she'll make a return this fall by the regional or national meets.

That could still happen, and a theoretical return from Born would be huge when it comes to filling out the Cowgirls' lineup, but not seeing her at the BIG 12 XC Championships is not ideal.