2022 Men's Way Too Early XC Preview (Part Two)

NOTE: TFRRS is used as a general guide when discussing eligibility and returners. It is possible that someone's anticipated eligibility for this upcoming cross country season isn't properly listed on TFRRS. While certain athletes and teams will be mentioned in this article, please note that any omissions should not indicate a negative view of the omitted athletes or teams in questions. There are only so many teams and athletes that we can mention.

So which team should we start Part Two with?

I feel like we could go in a million different directions here. We already discussed the three teams who I believe to be the contenders for the national title, but the next tier of names leaves us with a variety of different narratives and analytical approaches.

I feel like we kinda have to start our conversation today with Notre Dame, the one team that feels impossible to figure out right now.

I've always been a fan of the Fighting Irish. It's hard to root against a team that was once considered to be a non-factor in the ACC and has since evolved into a national-caliber powerhouse.

But as many of you know, the Notre Dame men haven't exactly had the best offseason.

Cross country All-American Yared Nuguse is now gone, as is fellow All-American teammate Andrew Alexander. A top-20 finisher at the ACC XC Championships, Anthony Russo, is also out of cross country eligibility. As I'm writing and editing this, I'm also realizing that top-tier All-American Danny Kilrea is also not returning to Notre Dame per his Instagram.

I was initially under the impression that Matthew Carmody would be finished after this past year -- his Instagram does suggest that he was done in 2022 -- but he does have an extra season of eligibility and until we get clarity, I'll just assume that he's returning.

That many top scoring departures in one year is tough, but it's not enough to crumble a program like Notre Dame...or at least it shouldn't.

Of course, the bigger development is that Sean Carlson, the men's distance coach who helped the Irish rise to the upper-tier of the NCAA, is now at Tennessee and their star low-stick Dylan Jacobs is now on the transfer portal.

I'm also working under the assumption that no other Notre Dame runner will be jumping on the transfer portal this summer -- something that is far from a guarantee.

That said, this is still Notre Dame we're talking about. This group should be very competitive in 2022 with the numerous All-American standouts that they return, especially if that group of returnees includes Carmody (which we assume it does).

The Irish also have, without question, the best men's distance recruiting class in the NCAA this year...and it's not even close. In fact, this might be the best men's distance recruiting class I have ever seen from the Irish.

So when you mix all of those factors together, you can understand why I really don't have a great gauge on this team. And frankly, I don't think a whole lot of other people do, either.

Alright, now it's time to talk about the most overlooked distance squad in the NCAA: The Tulsa Golden Hurricanes.

For years, the Tulsa men have consistently found themselves near the top of the national meet results. They have boasted strong firepower and a handful of nearly-complete lineups that were one or two pieces away from shocking everyone.

Going into the fall of 2021, the Tulsa men had lost a superstar scorer in Patrick Dever from their team that placed 6th at the NCAA Winter XC Championships where they scored 237 points.

But fast forward to last November, and the Tulsa men still finished 6th place overall without Dever...and scored 237 points yet again.

You can't make this stuff up.

However, in 2022, Tulsa will have a greater challenge ahead of them.

This time, they will lose top scorer Peter Lynch as well as Scott Beattie (despite what TFRRS suggests). Those are two established veterans who brought tremendous scoring potency and stability to the Golden Hurricanes's varsity lineup over the last few seasons.

The good news is that Tulsa still has cross country All-American Cormac Dalton as well as 5k All-American Michael Power. When paired with 13:32 (5k) runner Isaac Akers, the Tulsa men have, in theory, a very solid nucleus that they can rally and build around.

Admittedly, depth has always been a struggle for Tulsa. In fact, I would argue that depth is what has held them back from a podium spot on a handful of occasions.

And although their depth at the national meet was somewhat improved last year, asking two rising sophomores who placed no higher than 148th at the national meet to act as your fourth and fifth scorers isn't ideal.

The good is that those two younger runners, McEvoy and McLeod, still have tons of room to grow and improve. Their added national meet experience doesn't hurt either.

We should also expect Tulsa to add one or two notable names from the United Kingdom. That is, after all, one of the most established and most effective pipelines of distance talents in the NCAA, and it has proven to be incredibly beneficial for Tulsa.

But let's move to a team that I've been eagerly awaiting to analyze for weeks now.

That team is Montana State.

The Bobcats, admittedly, were far from great last year. On paper, they were just too young and too inexperienced to deliver on the potential that we eventually realized they had. This team had moments of promise, but the light of those moments quickly faded into the shadows of the monstrous Mountain region.

That said, the improvements that Montana State made on the oval, specifically this past spring, were wildly impressive. So much so that they were probably one tier below our candidates for TSR's "Best Distance Team / Coach" Award for the outdoor track season.

Duncan Hamilton has been beyond phenomenal. He has elevated his fitness to become of the best all-around distance stars in the NCAA. Running 8:18 in the steeplechase didn't hurt, either. His teammate, Levi Taylor, also had a huge breakout season this spring, running 8:27 in the steeplechase.

There's also Matthew Richtman, an individual cross country national qualifier who ran 13:47 (5k) and 28:46 (10k) this past outdoor season. Pairing him with Ben Perrin, a 13:36 (5k) runner, makes the Bobcats a very interesting team.

Those are four high-caliber names who could have a monster impact on the grass this fall. Each of those men had massive breakout seasons this past year (some greater than others) and have clearly reached a new level that we didn't see this past fall.

Of course, translating track success to cross country is never guaranteed nor does it always happen smoothly.

There's also no guarantee that Montana State will find a reliable fifth runner to quickly close out their scoring (although Owen Smith could be that guy). And even if they do find a cohesive top-five, then the Bobcats are all going to have to run their best races on the same day to advance to the national meet.

I say all of that not to be critical, but rather to counterbalance the unreal excitement and optimism that I have for this team. Montana State has unreal potential. While they will certainly need to refine certain parts of their lineup, they could exhibit tons of lethal scoring come October and November.

The word count for this article is already getting aggressively long at this point in our discussion, so instead of focusing on one team, I'm going to pick a handful of programs and give a few quick thoughts.

So what does everyone think of Colorado? Iowa State? BYU? Arkansas?

All of those teams placed in the top-10 at the NCAA XC Championships last year, but each team also loses crucial a scorer (or scorers) who really propped up their respective lineups.

And yet, at the same time, I just refuse to doubt or question these historical powerhouses that have burned TSR one too many times.

Iowa State probably took the biggest hit of those four teams, or really anyone in the top-10 from last year's national meet. They lost Wesley Kiptoo, Thomas Pollard, Ryan Ford and Festus Lagat. That is a TON of scoring potency.

At the same time, returners like Gable Sieperda, Ezekiel Kibichii, Chad Johnson and incoming transfer Titus Winders could come together to make a very cohesive lineup. Kelvin Bungei, a winter-time addition from the JUCO scene, could also contribute meaningful scoring.

Those names are all very solid. On paper, the Cyclones should still be a nationally competitive team. However, expecting Iowa State to match last year's national meet finish feels a little bit like a stretch.

BYU is an interesting team in terms of their lineup structure. They actually return everyone from last year's lineup...except Conner Mantz.

That may be only one loss, but it's a massive one.

The success of last year's BYU team hinged almost entirely on the front-running success of Mantz, Clinger and Garnica. And it wasn't just the national meet where that happened. Take a look at last year's Pre-National meet where the Cougars had a fairly significant gap form after their top-three runners crossed the line.

So, in theory, losing Mantz will only exacerbate the relative impact of that scoring gap.

That said, BYU had tons of younger guys last year and historically, Coach Ed Eyestone is one of the better developers of talent in the NCAA. It feels more like a probability than a possibility that another name will join the top-half of this scoring lineup.

But who will that new name be? And will they be good enough to the point where we're calling them a low-stick? I guess we'll have to wait and see...

And then there's Colorado.

Eduardo Herrera is gone.

Andrew Kent is gone.

Stephen Jones is gone.

Alec Hornecker is gone.

That is a rough loss when talking about scoring.

There are still a ton of excellent scoring options for the Buffaloes this fall. Charlie Sweeney is very underrated, Austin Vancil is closer to being a low-stick than not, Seth Hirsch is a top veteran who is joining the program as a grad transfer and Brendan Fraser is a much better cross country runner than some may realize.

There are still some very solid names on this team who could come together and do something special. But I'll admit, trying to figure out where the top-end scoring potency in this lineup is going to come from is going to be a challenge.

I'll never doubt Colorado until they give me a reason to, but this is the first time where I'm not entirely sure who their low-stick is going to be.

Vancil could be that guy. In fact, he might already be that guy. But who is going to support him? Where is Kashon Harrison? Will we see him race this fall? Am I asking too many questions? Should I move on?

Make no mistake, just because I have a lot of questions about Colorado doesn't mean that I dislike this team. I think I would classify most of the names in this lineup as "sneaky-good".

Alright, a few quick notes on Arkansas...

You may be think that the departure of their two All-American scoring stars is going to hurt them, but the Razorbacks return Emmanuel Cheboson as well as everyone behind him from their national meet lineup. They have also added Patrick Kiprop to their roster, a star in the making who has run 13:35 (5k) and 28:11 (10k).

Do I think that Arkansas is going to be the podium team that they were last year? No, admittedly, I don't see that happening.

But Arkansas is still going to be the same nationally competitive team that they are every year. That much is for certain.