2022 Women's Way Too Early XC Preview (Part Two)

Click here to read Part One of our Women's Way Too Early XC Preview

NOTE: TFRRS is used as a general guide when discussing eligibility and returners. It is possible that someone's anticipated eligibility for this upcoming cross country season isn't properly listed on TFRRS. While certain athletes and teams will be mentioned in this article, please note that any omissions should not indicate a negative view of the omitted athletes or teams in questions. There are only so many teams and athletes that we can mention.

Welcome back to everyone's favorite article series that we like to call, "Garrett just rambles about cross country for half of his work day." Personally, it's my favorite article series, but some would say that I'm biased.

Without any particular reason or transition, I'm going to start today's one-sided discussion with the Wisconsin women, a challenging team to properly gauge and analyze.

After a poor showing at the 2021 BIG 10 Winter XC Championships in March of last year, I would have been prepared to stay far away from the Lady Badgers in any of my predictions last fall.

And that, of course, would have come back to bite me.

Luckily, TSR wasn't an active site back then.

I just didn't trust this team going into last summer and after losing key veterans like Alicia Monson and Amy Davis, I looked at their lineup last fall and thought, "Where are they going to find any firepower? Who is their low-stick?"

Sure, Alissa Niggemann was a solid piece, but the rest of the team was fairly young and somewhat unproven. They had solid talents, but in my mind, they were viewed as developmental names.

And when you look at their 2021 fall lineup, that thought process was (sorta) accurate!

There wasn't really a ton of lethal firepower!

The difference, however, is that Wisconsin was just flat-out solid across the board. Their depth was quietly some of the best in the NCAA. Niggemann was a good-enough low-stick to at least give her team somewhat of an edge and the middle portion of their lineup was fairly steady and consistent.

But now Niggemann, Stella Gillman, Scarlet Dale and Danielle Orie are gone. The same can be said for their former head coach, Mackenzie Wartenberger, who stepped away from her coaching role with Wisconsin back in January.

The Wisconsin women still have plenty of depth, but is that depth going to be enough to fill the open gaps within the Badgers' top-seven? Who is going to be the new lead scoring for this squad? Who's even coaching this team?

Alright, that's enough for the questions, let's move on.

* * *

I think the Oklahoma State women are going to be the team that I have the most fun talking about this summer. They have tons of high-octane scoring pieces, but there are also plenty of x-factors who could realistically make this team a podium contender.

Now, that said, a lot of things need to come together and click for the Cowgirls in order for that to happen.

Taylor Roe is a superstar. She has two top-five finishes at the NCAA XC Championships on her resume. The only other active cross country runner in the NCAA who has boast the same is Mercy Chelangat.

But everyone knows how great Roe is. The real driver behind the Cowgirls' success this fall will be everyone behind her.

Gabby Hentemann has been slowly and steadily progressing. She has yet to be an All-American on the grass, but she's very close to doing so and generally speaking, she's very consistent.

Molly Born is also a veteran who returns to this team in 2022. On paper, can be a true low-stick for this team. In fact, if you look at past seasons' of hers, she's proven to be a lethal front-runner.

Remember, Born placed 16th at the NCAA XC Championships in 2019.

However, Born hasn't always raced at that same level since then. She has still proven that she can be a legitimate low-stick, but which version of her we see when it matters the most is what will ultimately dictate how well this performs.

Then there's an elite superstar-laden recruiting class.

Everyone knows about incoming freshman Natalie Cook, the high school megastar who won two cross country national titles on the grass in the same year and then ran 15:25 for 5000 meters on the outdoor oval. On paper, she can immediately be closer to Roe's caliber than Hentemann's caliber in her first year in the NCAA.

But the other name who people seem to be missing is Billah Jepkirui, a Kenyan standout who has run 4:11 for 1500 meters and 9:25 for 3000 meters. There isn't a ton of background info on her, but if Jepkirui can translate her 1500 meter success to the grass, then you're likely looking at another All-American for Oklahoma State...right?

On paper, that's a lethal top-five. In fact, that may be one of the most complete top-five scoring contingents in the country. Still, there are legitimate questions and considerations that need to be kept in mind.

The youth and inexperience of Cook and Jepkirui, while certainly encouraging from an upside perspective, does need to be considered. We also don't know if Hentemann will make that next jump to a true low-stick position. I also don't know if we're sure what version of Born we'll get on the national stage.

And when looking at last year's results, the depth after those five runners does leave us wanting a little bit more.

Still, Oklahoma State might be the best women's cross country team going into this fall that no one is talking about...and likely the team that no one wants to face come October and November.

* * *

When talking about high-impact youngsters, we can't leave the North Carolina women out of the conversation. Coach Miltenberg's squad relied on their exciting upside and youth throughout last year and for the most part, it worked out fairly well!

Here's a fun fact: Six of the Tar Heels' top-seven varsity runners from last year's team held freshman eligibility. Paige Hofstad was the lone senior who is now out of eligibility.

There is literally no team in the NCAA that has more upside than the UNC women. That's not an opinion or a hot take, that's just the flat-out truth. Teams that are as young as the Tar Heels simply have more room (and time) to grow.

But with that youth comes questions. Just how much better will this team be in 2022? How much of that youth and inexperience will be a liability? An asset? If this team improves as much as we think it will, then will their expected lineup order be reshuffled?

Yes, the younger women from Chapel Hill have competed on the national stage before, but this group is still young enough to the point where learning experiences and mistakes are allowed to (and are going to) happen.

On paper, UNC has a much greater chance of outperforming their 2022 national meet result (14th) this fall. Still, that's not a guarantee to happen and we don't know just how much better the Tar Heels will be come October and November.

Because if NC State is going to dominate at the ACC XC Championships like we expect them to, then we may not have a great gauge of where the Tar Heels stand between their last big regular season meet and the NCAA XC Championships.

* * *

Ok, let's chat about one or two more teams before I close this out.

Looking for a sleeper pick this season? I'd recommend looking at Providence.

The Friars are a historically great team, but they haven't exactly been great over the last decade. However, last year's team threw down performances that were fairly encouraging, leading us to believe that the Providence women could be even better in 2022.

This is a group that was runner-up at Beantown, 8th at Nuttycombe, a shockingly bad 5th place at the BIG East XC Championships and then 26th at the NCAA XC Championships.

But in my opinion, Providence is better than what their postseason results suggested. Their 8th place result at Nuttycombe supports that theory.

If TFRRS is accurate, then the Friars only lose one runner-up from their 2021 varsity lineup (Maria Coffin). They still return a fringe low-stick in Laura Mooney who, in opinion, is one of the most underrated long distance talents in the NCAA.

Lilly Tuck has proven to be a very promising supporting scorer and Shannon Flockhart just had a breakout year on the track. With a handful of other younger runners returning with plenty of upside, the 2022 Providence women feel like last year's UNC team with a little more racing maturity.

Generally speaking, the backend of Providence's lineup needs to be better by October and November, especially as the team attempts to replace Coffin. But I really like the direction that this team is going in and the addition of a key transfer or a strong overseas talent could bolster this team to new heights.

Are they a top-20 team in the country? That seems reasonable, and I think they can be a top-15 team if everything goes perfectly.

Of course, this is me being optimistic. The Friars still need to solidify the top-end of their scoring group and need to close gaps in the back-half of their lineup. If that happens, then who knows what this team could do?

* * *

Alright, let's wrap this up with one more BIG East team: the Georgetown Hoyas.

This is a VERY interesting team.

The Hoyas were a solid team in 2021, winning the BIG East title and earning a top-20 finish at the NCAA XC Championships with an 18th place spot finish. This team now returns everyone except for Kiera Bothwell, someone who was more of a backend scorer for the Hoyas throughout last fall.

That fact alone would make Georgetown a scary-good team if the conversation ended there. Maggie Donahue and Sami Corman are two of the most underrated low-sticks in the NCAA and the rest of this team has shown tons of promise.

What's not to like?

But what's even more exciting is that Georgetown has also added Grace Jensen, Katy-Ann McDonald and Andrea Claeson from the transfer portal this year. That is a TON of cross country scoring firepower that is suddenly injected into a program that really wasn't losing a whole lot of scoring to begin with.

Some people may view that transfer trio as track specialists, but each of these women have also thrived on the grass. Jensen is a three-time top-20 finisher at the SEC XC Championships while both McDonald and Claeson were each individual cross country national qualifiers (in different seasons).

On paper, Georgetown may have the most complete cross country lineup in the NCAA, or least the most complete lineup amongst the non-podium contending teams.

But just because they aren't in that conversation right now doesn't mean that they can't get there. In theory, there shouldn't be a ton of flaws or weak points within the Hoyas' lineup this year. That's how impactful their incoming transfers are.

However, the success of this group will ultimately come down to how much better everyone else becomes.

No, I'm not just talking about the incoming transfers, I'm talking about Maggie Donahue, Sami Corman and the rest of the supporting cast within this top-seven. Because frankly, we don't really have a good idea of how much better the individuals within roster will actually become.

And that's what makes Georgetown such as fascinating team to monitor come October and November.