It’s that time of the year again for distance runners all around the nation. While some collegiates are extending their season in an attempt to qualify for the World Championships, others are shifting their focus towards the long grind of summer miles in preparation for cross country. The switch to cross country means that we have many questions to analyze and answer such as...who is the favorite to win the team title this year? Who has the edge during cross country, Fisher or Knight? What big-name transfers can we expect this year and how will they impact their team? The questions for this upcoming season are endless... With essentially three months of no collegiate racing happening, that leaves us a lot of time of time for features, rankings, stories, and so much more. So what will our plan be during these summer months? Here are just a few ideas… -Recruit Rankings (coming soon) -Top 25 Team XC Rankings (coming this July) -Top 50 Individual XC Rankings (coming this August) -Featured stories -Digits -Anything you would want to see (comment below, contact us on social media, or send us an email) At the same time, we are also looking for writers! If you’re interested in being a part of a growing site that pays $2 per article then send us an email at contact@thestridereport.com to find out more information. We’re always looking for more people to get involved! In the mean time, stay patient as we prep a summer of awesome content! We’ve got a lot more coming your way. Stay tuned, The Stride Report team #gzatlin

The spring track season has now come to an end. Throughout the season, we made some bold (and some not-so-bold) predictions and statements throughout the year. But how many of those statements and predictions actually came true? Did we hit the nail on the head or did we flounder in our analysis? It seems to be a good mix of both. Below, we have given excerpts from certain articles that we've posted throughout the spring track season where we made some sort of statement about the future. Take a look and see if we were right or wrong... Business As Usual Quote: “Futsum Zienasellassie […] Best Guess: Hoka One One […] It feels as if this was a given for the NAU senior […] Is there really a better fit for him elsewhere?” Result : Correct Explanation: Although we may have “called” this one, the idea of Futsum going to NAZ Elite with Hoka One One seemed like a no-brainer. As mentioned in the article, Futsum wouldn’t have to venture too far from his NAU roots and he would already be adjusted to the altitude as well as the training environment. In addition to the location, NAZ Elite’s training program complimented Futsum’s racing style and preference as they tend to focus their workouts towards cross country and the longer distances. Raleigh Relays Recap Quote: “Randon finished in a time of 3:42.44 while youngster Ryan Adams (only a sophomore) was close behind in 3:42.90. These are excellent times for a meet in late March and a great indicator of what we could potentially see in the future. If these guys can find a fast enough race, sub 3:40 isn’t out of the question for either of them.” Result: Correct Explanation: It took a while for this one to come to fruition, but James Randon made me look really smart at the Swarthmore Last Chance meet where he ran 3:37 in a field loaded with professionals and Ivy League elites. Although Ryan Adams never got faster than 3:42, he was the one that ended up qualifying for NCAA’s while James Randon went home early. Digits: Analyzing The Stanford Invite Quote: “With the first few weeks of competition now finished, it seems as though we have found our candidates to potentially break 28 minutes. 2013 had three men under the barrier, is it possible that 2017 has the same or even more?” Result: Incorrect Explanation: Not only did this bold prediction not happen, but we did not even see a single individual break 28 minutes in the 10k this year! Throughout all of the available data on TFRRS (which goes back to 2010) there has always been at least one individual to break the 28-minute mark in a spring track season. Marc Scott and Alfred Chelanga came awfully close to the mark with times of 28:04, but left us without an individual under the mark. Not only were we left without a 27-minute 10k runner, but we were also left with plenty of questions. The biggest question I have is could Cheserek have gone under 28 minutes if he gave an all-out effort? What if he ran at Payton Jordan? Would he have gone under 28 minutes there? What if Alfred Chelanga, Erik Peterson, or Jerrell Mock ran at Payton Jordan? Why was Marc Scott the only collegiate entered in the 10k? These are trivial questions that wont make a difference in the long-run, but they at least give us something to think about... Under The Radar Underclassmen Quote: “Despite his consistency, Lewis needs to find a way to dip under that mark of 1:48 and start consistently hitting 1:47’s. If he can do that, then don’t be surprised when he ends up qualifying for nationals by the end of the season.” Result: Correct Explanation: I like to think that Lewis read this article and just decided to follow my advice. 11 days after this article was published, Lewis ran under 1:48 mark for the first time ever with a personal best of 1:47.95. Lewis went on to improve that mark with a personal best at ACC’s where he ran a time of 1:47.62. He later went sub-1:48 again at Regionals. The result? Lewis qualified for his first ever National Championship. Trends and consistency matter in the NCAA! Let’s Rewind: Florida Relays Quote: “Moreover, a fast 800 backs my bold prediction that Engels will be the 1500m winner for the NCAA this season.” Result: Incorrect Explanation: If there was a bold prediction to make, this was probably the most sensible one. There was a lot to like about Engels this season when you consider the factors of improvement, consistency, experience, and momentum. Engels came off of an indoor campaign where he showed some signs of steady improvement after an early-season injury delayed the start to his winter training/racing. Engels was hitting top form at the start of the spring season and although he didn’t beat Kerr at Bryan Clay, his personal best of 3:37 along with his talents in the 800 made him a very dangerous opponent for Kerr in the future. The championship experience that Engels brought to the track did not make the predictions for the 1500 easy (at least on our end). Of course, Kerr has now elevated his fitness to a new level and was able to display finishing speed that we haven’t seen since Jordy Williamsz of Villanova. Engels may not have pulled off the upset, but if there was anyone capable of doing it, he was the one. The Weekend Review (4/16/17) Quote: “…it’s very possible that Kiprop transfers to a division one program after this year. He’s talented enough to get a full-ride somewhere. He could even follow Alfred Chelanga to Alabama. The Crimson Tide do lose Antibahs Kosgei and Robbie Farnham-Rose at the end of this season. With those two gone, there would be plenty of room (and need) for a distance talent like Kiprop...” Result: Correct Explanation: A few weeks ago, Alabama’s 2017-2018 roster was updated and with it came the addition of 5x D2 NCAA Champ Vincent Kiprop. In addition to Kiprop, the Crimson Tide also gained 9x NJCAA champion Gilbert Kigen. If we’re being honest, this is the prediction I am the most proud of. Trying to call the future location of a potential transfer is incredibly difficult in my mind, but this scenario just seemed to make the most scene. The addition of Alfred Chelanga in the winter, the convenience of the location, and the scholarship opportunities from graduates like Farnham-Rose and Kosgei made this transfer seem inevitable. However, I will admit that I did not expect Gilbert Kigen to join this group. He will be a huge asset to the Crimson Tide which could be what they needed to contend with other southern cross country programs like Ole Miss, Texas, and Florida State. Digits: Josh Kerr Isn’t The Favorite To Win The 1500 Quote: “Kerr may own the 6th fastest NCAA 1500 ever, but based on the past few years of competition, we shouldn’t claim him as the NCAA champion just yet.” Result: Incorrect Explanation: What can I say? I was trying to be bold… As I mentioned earlier, I think you could make the argument that Engels had the potential to upset Kerr. But in retrospect, the idea of Kerr not being the favorite was a bit silly. To be fair, the numbers were stacked against him so I think it’s fair to say that what he accomplished was rather significant. Only two freshmen (including redshirts) have been NCAA champions in the 95-year history of the 1500/mile. Throw in the comparisons with Joe Falcon (as mentioned in the article) and you have a very rare occurrence. The Weekend Review (4/30/17) Quote: “[Arroyo has been] running the fastest he’s ever run and doing so with different racing styles. With a strong display of range, you can’t help but think that Arroyo has found the formula to once again become an All-American.” Result: Correct Explanation: I was rather critical of Arroyo over the past two years. This is a guy with such incredible talent who simply couldn’t take advantage of the championship stage with multiple missed chances of becoming an All-American. However, this season was different and I think you could see that difference in his racing styles and in his ability to move up in distance (i.e. his 3:41 PR in the 1500). Being able to race tactically is so important when trying to succeed at NCAA’s and it seems like Arroyo was finally able to figure out that aspect of racing. Arroyo ended up in 5th place to cap off his collegiate career as a 2x All-American. It was the best finish at NCAA’s he has ever had (8th place was his previous best). Digits: Double Gold Quote: " [of the] six double gold conference winners from this past weekend, approximately four of them will become All-Americans” Result: Incorrect Explanation: Of the six double gold conference winners (Kerr, Tate, Knevelbaard, Erb, Choge, Keter) only three of them became All-Americans instead of the four I predicted. Further more, the two guys who I said would be “locks” were Knevelbaard and Tate. Naturally, neither of those two qualified for NCAA’s. Kerr, Erb, and Keter came through in the All-American count, but Choge failed to get on the podium despite racing in both the 5k and 10k. The struggles from Choge as well as the big misses from Tate and Knevelbaard were the biggest reasons why these numbers didn’t match up. Quote: “…either Keter, Kerr, Tate, Knevelbaard, Erb, or Choge will become an NCAA champion this June.” Result: Correct Explanation: In my predictions, I had both Kerr and Erb winning national titles. If I had paid attention to the numbers, I would’ve realized that only one in six double conference champions (DCC’s) will become NCAA champions. Sure enough, Erb couldn’t grab the win while Kerr was able to earn gold. Past history indicated that the steeplechase was easiest event to clinch gold in if you became a DCC. Still, Kerr came up big at NCAA’s and became the first DCC since at least 2010 to win a national title. It may not have been the event I thought it was going to be, but the averages still turned out to be accurate. #rightampwrong #ncaa #joshkerr #digits #recap

Cheserek Is Not To Blame For Sit-And-Kick Races When you’re the best, there’s always criticism to be found. Despite his 17 national titles, Cheserek was consistently criticized for his unwillingness to assert a fast pace during championship races as well as other meets like the Penn Relays. But who can blame him? Why did no one else make the pace fast? Is it really his fault that races he competed in turned out to be slow? After seeing the results from this past weekend, I think the answer is a resounding “No”. 10k National Champion Marc Scott used the classic sit-and-kick method to secure his first ever national title while Grant Fisher did the same exact thing in the 5k. In fact, Fisher even went on to say in his post-race interview that in championship races “everyone thinks they can kick”, which obviously seems to be the case. With Josh Kerr now dominating in the 1500, will he receive the same criticism Cheserek gets for his national titles? Kerr’s past two title wins haven’t been that fast and have been won with last-lap heroics. Want To Win An NCAA Championship? Have Great Range… Of the five national champions in the distance events, all of them displayed the ability to compete at a high level in events other than what they achieved NCAA gold in. Emmanuel Korir split 43.34 in a 4x4 to compliment his personal best of 1:43 in the half-mile. Josh Kerr ran an underrated double at the Mountain West Conference Championships where he ran 1:48.04 at altitude to win after also winning the 1500. Maybe one of the best displays of range came from Edwin Kibichiy who ran 28:38 for the 10k, took bronze in the ACC 5k, and even added on a time of 3:46 in the 1500 (just one second off of his PR). After an impressive last 400 in the Stanford Cardinal Classic 5k, Grant Fisher showed that his leg speed was no fluke when he became the 1500 PAC-12 champion with a scorching 51.81 second last lap. And how could we forget about Marc Scott? The Tulsa senior was one of only three individuals who qualified for NCAA’s in both the 5k and 10k. Of course, there are plenty of All-Americans who have shown equally impressive range (especially the milers) which would continue to explain why these individuals had such great success this season. Andres Arroyo had his first All-American performance for the the first time in two years after running a huge personal best of 3:41 in the 1500 earlier this spring. I like to think that his success in the longer distance indicated that he was strong enough to get through the rounds and make himself a contender in fast races. The 1500 included guys like Justine Kiprotich, Craig Engels, and Neil Gourley who all owned strong personal bests in the 800. Josh Thompson went on to find that he is a very talented steeplechaser with a personal best time of 8:32 at the Portland Track Festival just a few days ago. The list goes on for All-Americans in the longer distances as many of them are capable of balancing the fitness required for the 5k and 10k. Foreigners Are Still Dominating The NCAA Of the five NCAA distance champions, Grant Fisher was the only American. Korir (Kenya), Kerr (Scotland), Kibichiy (Kenya), and Scott (Great Britain) all took gold ahead of America’s top-tier talent. Even the top finishers behind these NCAA champions are international athletes. Just take a look at the 5000. Jack Bruce (2nd) is from Australia, Justyn Knight (3rd) is Canadian, Marc Scott (4th) is British, Amon Terer (5th) is Kenyan, and Chartt Miller (6th) is Australian. After Fisher, the next American to cross the line was Minnesota-native Joe Klecker who placed 7th overall. Justine Kiprotich (2nd in 1500), although raised in America, was born in Kenya. He was followed by Scotland’s Neil Gourley who placed 5th in the 1500. And the 10k? Marc Scott (1st) is British and Rory Linkletter (2nd) is Canadian. Butler’s Erik Peterson was the first American to cross the line in 3rd, but he was quickly followed by France’s Arsene Guillorel who placed 4th. My point? Not much has changed among the collegiate elites as Americans still can’t seem to find their place among the top of the podium. While I would like to see less rosters composed entirely of Kenyans, Australians, or Brits, I can’t blame collegiate coaches for looking into foreign athletes as a new way to build to their program. Unless you have the big-name appeal of Oregon, Stanford, or Colorado (to name a few) it’s not easy to recruit the greatest high-level athletes the U.S. has to offer. Underclassmen Are Thriving In The Shorter Distances In the 800, we saw a true freshman and a true sophomore finish 1-2, each running times of 1:45. Had Saruni not tripped and fallen, we could have very easily seen two freshmen cross the line in first. Although he ended up in 7th place, Devin Dixon of Texas A&M proved that he is one of the best 800 runners in the nation as just a freshman. Is it really a fluke that these runners are so young? The top two 800 times in the NCAA have both been run by freshmen in the span of a year… The 1500 wasn’t that much different as the top finishers in that race were both sophomores (Kiprotich is a redshirt sophomore). Of course, success of the underclassmen seems exclusive to the mid-distances. In fact, not a single freshman or sophomore became an All-American in the steeplechase. Yes, Fisher did win the 5k as a sophomore, but an overwhelming number of All-Americans in the steeplechase, 5k, and 10k were juniors and seniors. I will continue to argue that this is simply because it takes much more time to build a base for the longer races than it does the mid-distances. #Nationals #joshkerr #whatwelearned #cheserek #analysis #ncaa