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- Predictions & Previews: Power Five Invite & New Mexico Classic
Power Five Invite Mile In one of the more underrated fields of the weekend, the Power Five Invite could bring us some fast times. In the mile, we'll get to see recent sub-4 miler Kyle Mau (Indiana) toe the line along with teammate Ben Veatch, a guy who has been grabbing headlines in the longer distances this year. The Hoosier duo will also be joined by teammate Joseph Murphy. Luckily, Indiana won't be the only team crowding the field as Stanford has entered two athletes of their own (Thomas Coyle & Patrick Perrier). Perrier has been a great consistent miler for the Cardinal over the past few years, but he just can't seem to dip under that 4 minute barrier. Thomas Coyle is a sub-4 minute miler himself, but he hasn't accomplished that since his sophomore year. Is this the meet where he'll get back under that 4 minute mark? Other guys to keep an eye on are Michigan's Chase Barnett who just ran a 4:03 at Boston last week while Shane Streich of Minnesota could be a great sleeper pick when you consider his great tactical racing skills. FINAL PREDICTIONS 1. Kyle Mau (Indiana) 2. Chase Barnett (Michigan) 3. Ben Veatch (Indiana) 4. Patrick Perrier (Stanford) 5. Shane Streich (Minnesota) 6. Thomas Coyle (Stanford) 3000 The 3K will be a mix of some great distance-oriented programs such as Michigan, Virginia, NC State, and Minnesota. The Michigan men will be led by Aaron Baumgarten, the Wolverine senior who owns a personal best time of 7:57 in this event. He will be favored to take the win in this field. His teammate, Connor Mora, has a PR of 8:06 in this event, but his 3:59 mile speed could make him a threat in a tactical race. Others like Brent Demarest (Virginia), Obsa Ali (Minnesota), and Micah Beller (Michigan) all have PR's under 8:10, but they have yet to crack 8 minutes. With a guy like Aaron Baumgarten leading the race, you could definitely find one or two of those guys under the 8 minute barrier if everything goes perfectly. If you're looking for a breakout performer, keep your eyes on Evan Ferlic (Minnesota) and Ben Barrett (NC State). Both of these individuals are young talents that have slowly begun to put together some really solid results. In a field like this, they could definitely thrive and record a fast time. FINAL PREDICTIONS 1. Aaron Baumgarten (Michigan) 2. Brent Demarest (Virginia) 3. Evan Ferlic (Minnesota) 4. Connor Mora (Michigan) 5. Aubrey Myjer (NC State) 6. Micah Beller (Michigan) 7. Obsa Ali (Minnesota) 5000 At first, the entries may seem a little thin. Yet, upon a second look, you'll find that there is a lot of talent in this field. Michigan's Ben Flanagan will most likely be the favorite when you consider that he is on his home track and is arguably the most experienced out of anyone on the performance list. With a PR of 14:02, he'll certainly be fighting at the front. Yet, even with that personal best of 14:02, Flanagan still doesn't hold the fastest PR in this field. That accolade would belong to Indiana's Bryce Millar. The Hoosier sophomore owns a personal best time of 13:59 in this event which he ran in December of 2016. In a field that is not too strong, but not too weak, Millar could find himself back under that 14 minute mark if the pace is strong enough. If you're looking for other sleeper picks, you should look at the young guys from NC State. Elijah Moskowitz and Patrick Sheehan have put together some really solid times throughout their career, but they are still waiting for that big breakout performance. Much like Millar, this field may be the perfect amount of talent to stay competitive, but still be pushed. FINAL PREDICTIONS 1. Ben Flanagan (Michigan) 2. Bryce Millar (Indiana) 3. Elijah Moskowitz (NC State) 4. Alex Corbett (Virginia) 5. Patrick Sheehan (NC State) DMR This will most likely be the event of the meet as we get to see Stanford's fully loaded relay (McGorty & Fisher) match up with Indiana's talented group (Kuhn & Mau). The matchup between these two will be exciting, although it's fair to say that Stanford is the heavy favorite. With two of the best individuals to ever come through a historic Stanford program, it will be hard to take down this group. Still, if Indiana can keep it close up until the mile leg, then they are bound to run something incredibly fast. Of course, it would ignorant to forget about the home team, Michigan. They will be fielding a very solid relay of their own which includes sub-4 miler Connor Mora and 4:03 miler Chase Barnett (on the 1200). In theory, this group should stay close to Indiana throughout most of the race. However, the Wolverines will be without their 800 stud Brennan Munley which could give Indiana an advantage on the 800 leg when Daniel Kuhn gets the baton. Don't be surprised if you see Stanford dip under 9:30 while two others flirt with the 9:31 mark... FINAL PREDICTIONS 1. Stanford Cardinal 2. Indiana Hoosiers 3. Michigan Wolverines New Mexico Collegiate Classic 800 Admittedly, the field isn't all that stacked with college athletes. Most of the entries here are filled with professionals. That said, Sam Worley is entered to race, although he is also entered in the mile. If he doesn't run the mile, then this field, along with a nice altitude conversion, could put him somewhere along the lines of a 1:48 time. In addition to Worley, I will be interested to see how Texas' Jake McConnell performs in this event. A strong result from him could give the Longhorns enough confidence to pursue a DMR in the future. FINAL PREDICTIONS 1. Sam Worley (Texas) <--if he doesn't run the mile 2. Kristian Hansen (New Mexico) 3. Jake McConnell (Texas) Mile This field will hold some of the best names in the state of Texas which should make for a great race. The star of this race will be Sam Worley (Texas) and unlike the 800, I believe that Worley will actually toe the line for this event. Worley will get to face off with UTEP stud Jonah Koech who ran a 4 flat mile (converted) a few weeks ago. Having a pair of 800/mile stars like these two could make this either an exciting race from the gun or a huge sit-and-kick race near the end. However, we can't forget about Texas veteran Alex Rogers who owns personal bests of 1:48 and 3:40 (1500). This guy is a stud who has some great speed and even greater range. Rogers can do more than just compete with Worley and Koech. He can beat them. Yet, with that in mind, Koech seems to be having a bounce-back season. Plus, he has the experience of racing at altitude. Worley does not. It will be interesting to see how these mile stars clash. FINAL PREDICTIONS 1. Jonah Koech (UTEP) 2. Alex Rogers (Texas) 3. Sam Worley (Texas) 3000 The 3000 meters will essentially be a duel meet between Texas & UTEP with New Mexico sprinkled throughout the field. The Longhorns will be fielding key XC guys like John Rice and Connor Hendrickson while UTEP will have their long-distance guys, Cornelius Kapel and Antony Kosgei, toe the line as well. The finishing times for this race may not be incredibly fast, but it does present a great matchup. We also need to take some time to acknowledge that Jacob Pickle (Texas) is finally back and set to race this weekend! After dealing with a series of injuries throughout his career, it's an encouraging sign to see him back on the performance list. Pickle will be racing in the 2nd heat of this event alongside freshman standout and teammate Connor O'Neill. FINAL PREDICTIONS 1. John Rice (Texas) 2. Antony Kosgei (UTEP) 3. Connor Hendrickson (Texas) 4. Connor O'Neill (Texas) 5. Jacob Pickle (Texas) 6. Cornelius Kapel (UTEP) #gzatlin #preview #predictions #ncaa #indoortrack
- Digits: Five Fun Stats
Based on the performances lists, most weren't surprised to see such fast times come out of this past weekend. With huge meets taking place all over the nation, we were bound to have some strong results that would get us closer to what the NCAA qualifying picture is actually going to look like. As we look evaluate these outstanding runs, it may be tough to put some of them in perspective. That's where we comes in. We took some of the numbers from this past weekend and were able to make some interesting findings. Check out some fun stats below and see for yourself... ***Keep in mind that the data we are using for all of this is from TFRRS. That data only goes back to 2010. We do not have data from before then.*** JONATHAN DAVIS Prior to this weekend, the fastest flat-track converted mile run since 2010 was 3:57.44 from Patrick Joseph (Virginia Tech) in 2015. Now, Illinois' Jonathan Davis has the fastest flat-track time since 2010 with a converted time of 3:55.46. Not only is Davis the fastest flat-track performer in recent history, but he also accomplished something else pretty huge... Jonathan Davis is the first runner with freshman eligibility (since at least 2010) to own a time under the 3:56 mark. Justyn Knight of Syracuse originally held that top mark when he ran 3:56.87 as a redshirt freshman in 2016. Ironically, Knight is currently 2nd in the NCAA behind Jonathan Davis. OREGON MILERS The Oregon men accomplished something pretty special this past weekend by putting FOUR men under the 4 minute barrier. All of their athletes currently claim spots in the NCAA Top 10. Since 2010, there have been only five other teams that have accomplished this feat. Georgetown (2016), Oregon (2015), Georgetown (2015), and Oregon (2013) have all had four individuals run under the 4 minute barrier. Oklahoma State did the unthinkable in 2013 when they put FIVE men under 4 minutes. When you look back and consider how legendary some of these squads were, you can't help but be impressed with what the Ducks did this past weekend. Still, there's a bit more to this story than just that... The 2018 Oregon men now join the 2015 and 2016 Georgetown squads as the only teams to put four men under 4 minutes in the same weekend. However, no team has ever done it as early as this Oregon team has. Georgetown was only able to put four men under 4 minutes at the same Boston University meet that takes place the weekend before or on Valentines Day. MICHAEL SARUNI NCAA #2 All-Time In case you didn't know, UTEP's Michael Saruni is really good... Saruni ran a time of 1:45.19 this past weekend at the Texas Tech Classic. That time alone is the fastest 800 time in the NCAA since 2010 by .74 seconds. However, because Saruni was running at 5000 ft of altitude, he actually earned a converted time of 1:44.89. If you count altitude conversions into the equation, Saruni is the 2nd man in NCAA history to EVER run under the 1:45 mark. Even without the conversion, he is still #2 All-Time. The only other NCAA athlete to run under the 1:45 mark during indoor track? Saruni's head coach, Paul Ereng, with a time of 1:45.84 set back in 1989... THE FAST 5K's ARE COMING SOON So far this season, only two men have gone under the 14:00 barrier (Ben Veatch & Emmanuel Rotich). After the NCAA failed to produce another sub 14 minute result this past weekend, I became interested as to when we have historically seen those fast 5K's begin... From 2010 to 2017, there have been 301 men that have run under the 14 minute mark. Of those 301 men, only 37 of them (or 12.3%) have run under the 14 minute barrier before the beginning of February. Basically, this means that a heavy portion of fast 5K's should be coming within the next week or two... However, 2018 now joins 2017 and 2013 as the only years since 2010 to not have someone run under the 14 minute barrier between January 20th and January 31st. In addition to that statistic, the average number of men under the 14 minute mark from 2010 to 2017 before the month of February is 4.6 men. Right now, we are only at 2. Of course, it's important that we don't get caught up in arbitrary numbers and averages. Those numbers, in the grand scheme of things, probably won't make any difference. Still, it at least gives us a perspective that this year may be a little slower than usual in the 5000 meters... OREGON's 9:31 DMR PROBABLY WONT BE ENOUGH Back in late December / early January, we released a TSR Mailbag article that reviewed some of the averages and numbers that individuals (and relays) would need to hit if they wanted to secure themselves a spot to Nationals. In that article, we projected that the time needed for the 12th and final eligible DMR to qualify for Nationals in 2018 was going to be 9:30.31. Obviously, that is just a projection. However, our trend-line suggests that the NCAA DMR's need to be within that range if they want to be safe against the numbers this season. Projections are all well and good, but let's put those aside for now. Let's take a look at some averages. From 2010 to 2017, the average time it took for a team to earn the 12th open (and final) qualifying spot to NCAA's in the DMR has been 9:32.07. Naturally, it's easy to jump to conclusions and say that Oregon's time of 9:31.87 is faster than that average and, therefore, should be enough to get them to qualify. That may be true, but if we cut out the first three years of our average (2010, 2011, 2012) and just took the averages from 2013 to 2017, you will find that that time becomes 9:31.33. The Ducks will most likely pursue another fast DMR before the season's end. However, if history continues to stay on it's projected path, then Oregon's current time won't get them into NCAA's. #gzatlin #analysis #indoortrack #digits
- The Weekend Review: 1/28/18
Illini Invite Mile This weekend held a variety of huge performances. The UW & the John Thomas Invites produced solid performances across the board, while the Armory gave us some wicked fast miles. Yet, at a small meet where no one broke 1:55 in the 800, Jon Davis was the biggest star of the day. The redshirt freshman threw down a MONSTER mile time of 3:58 on a flat-track. Not only is that time an impressive solo performance, but the result also gets a very nice flat-track conversion 3:55.42, an NCAA #1 time. I think we all knew that Davis was good, but to run a time like that in his first indoor track season as a collegiate? That is another level... Texas Tech Classic 800 The great thing about this weekend is that there were exciting results at nearly every meet. The Texas Tech 800 was an exciting one that put one of the best athletes in the nation back on the track. UTEP's Michael Saruni was originally NCAA #1 before this weekend. He still is #1, but that time has only improved. Saruni threw down an unreal time of 1:45.19 at altitude to take the win and improve upon his time. However, the best part is that because he was running at altitude, he gets a converted time of 1:44.89! Remember when I said that I think Harris could still take the NCAA title? I might have to reconsider that thought after today... The runner-up in this race was Vincent Crisp (Texas Tech) who crossed the line in 1:48.01. That time gets a conversion of 1:47.70, good for NCAA #2. Admittedly, the 800 hasn't been as deep as I thought it would be so far. There are only three men who have dipped under 1:48 and there are only 22 men who have gone under 1:50. Obviously, the overall leaderboard will get faster. Still, after such a big weekend, you would expect the 800 field to be a bit faster. Penn State National 800 Isaiah Harris was the focus of this meet as he was set to run his marquis event (the 800). Sure enough, Harris ran an NCAA #3 time in 1:47.79. I think it seems clear that Harris was just trying to get a decent time in and secure his spot to NCAA's. I'm not guaranteeing that he could have run faster at that specific meet, but don't assume that this is the best we could see from Harris this season. Securing a 2nd place finish was Monmouth's Dylan Capwell who is reemerging as a legitimate contender in the NCAA. After a few up and down seasons, Capwell looks like he's back for vengeance after running an NCAA #7 time of 1:48.47. He was able to beat out an established sophomore in Domenic Perretta (Penn State) who was 3rd in 1:49.81 Mile Monmouth's Christopher Marco took the win in a time of 4:06.49 over Army's Kegan Smith and Binghamton's Eric Holt. 3000 After a very solid mile a couple of weekends ago, Colin Abert (Penn State) was able to show off his range with an 8:05 time that appears to be soloed when you consider that his teammate Tim McGowan was 2nd in 8:16. 5000 Patrick Hanley (Maryland) was able to secure the win in a time of 14:47 while Dylan Titon (LaSalle) was runner-up in 14:52. DMR Every year, regardless of who is on their roster, Penn State is capable of producing some very strong DMR's. Sure enough, the Nittany Lions did that once again as they were able to break away from the field and run an NCAA #3 time of 9:36. What was interesting was seeing Harris run the 1200 and Perretta run the 800. I would have thought that a switch with those two would have been a bit more beneficial. Maybe we'll see that combo at another time.... Dr. Sander / Columbia Challenge (Armory) 800 (Invite) In a field of elite-level professionals, Abraham Alvarado (BYU) was able to earn a 3rd place finish with a time of 1:48.70 (NCAA #8). Alvarado may have lost to Sowinski and Prince, but he did finish ahead of guys like Garn, Murphy, Andrews, and Loxsom. Mile (Invite + Open) In what may have been the deepest event of the weekend, we got to see a total of nine men under the 4 minute barrier. Of those nine, four of them were collegiates. Of those collegiates, all of them were from Oregon... The Oregon men went to work this past weekend as Mick Stanovsek, Reed Brown, Cooper Teare, and Sam Prakel all dipped under the 4 minute mark. Prakel was in the invite section along with teammate Blake Haney where they each ran 3:59 and 4:01, respectively. In the open section, Mick Stanovsek was the big name of the day as the redshirt sophomore threw down a HUGE performance of 3:57 which was good enough to be the top finisher in his heat. He was able to bring his two freshmen teammates under the 4 minute mark as well as both Teare and Brown each finished with times of 3:59. At this point, Oregon now has the 3rd, 5th, 7th, and 8th best milers in the NCAA right now. The Ducks are beginning to reestablish their depth, build their future, and putting guys like Stanovsek into the All-American conversation. Remember that article Life After Cheserek that we wrote two weeks ago? So far, it seems like some of those assumptions weren't too far off after all... 3000 (Invite + Open) Much like the mile, the 3000 held a slew of professionals who would eventually go on to take the top four spots in this race. However, the 5th place finisher and top collegiate was Wisconsin's Oliver Hoare who ran an excellent time of 7:54.91 (NCAA #4). He was able to edge out BYU star Rory Linkletter (7:55.10) (NCAA #5) and teammate Joe Hardy (7:57.11) (NCAA #9). Right now, you have to be impressed with Wisconsin. Without Morgan McDonald this season, they are still producing some excellent results with Eric Brown dipping under 1:50 in the 800 (thanks to a conversion) while Hoare and Hardy are running sub 8 minute 3k's by significant margins. This program has come under a lot of fire as of late with questionable redshirting decisions and questions as to how much of an impact their freshmen should be having. That, of course, is just background noise for a program that has a history of success on their side. The 4th collegiate in this race was James West who completed the 2nd race of his career in an Oregon singlet with a time of 7:58.26. That time matches his PR from his time in the UK which is a good sign for things to come in the future. At the moment, he is currently ranked 10th in the NCAA. Other notable results included Daniel Carney (BYU) and Robert Brandt (UCLA) both running 8:01. Conner Mantz and Clayson Shumway (both of BYU) finished the day with an 8:02. In total, 20 men were at 8:05 or faster. DMR It's finally time to run some fast DMR's and the Oregon Ducks made sure to do just that. With the combination of Haney, Stone, Stanovsek, and Prakel, the Ducks were simply too much to overcome as they finished the day in 1st with an excellent time of 9:31.87 (which should be enough to qualify them for NCAA's). They are currently 1st in the nation. What's scary about the Ducks is that they could potentially get even faster. This was just one relay combination that didn't include Reed Brown, Cooper Teare, James West and many more. Yes, this relay combination is probably the best in terms of experience, but I would be interested to see what else this squad could put together. The 2nd place finishing team was BYU who put up a nice time of 9:36 (NCAA #2). The Cougars actually had a slight lead going into the mile leg thanks to a nice split from Abraham Alvarado on the 800 leg. However, Prakel's 3:58 split was too much for Rory Linkletter to handle as he ended up splitting 4:03. Still, this is a great time and I'm not even convinced that Linkletter is BYU's best miler. I'm sure they could probably find someone who is closer to the 4 minute mark. Rounding out the top three was Georgetown who finished the day with a time of 9:38 (NCAA #4). Overall, you have to be pleased with their performance, especially when you consider that neither Joe White, Jack Salisbury, Jonathan Green, nor Scott Carpenter were on this relay. Do not sleep on the Hoyas as they could surely drop something faster later on this season. Clemson Bob Pollock 800 It may not have the flashy times that you saw elsewhere, but we did get to see a nice matchup between Georgia Tech's Avery Bartlett and Wake Forest's Robert Heppenstall. Coming into this race, most would say that Heppenstall was the favorite when you consider his 1:46 PR and multiple All-American honors. Yet, even with all of those accolades, it didn't really matter as Bartlett was able to get the win over Heppenstall, 1:49.76 to 1:49.78. We mentioned in December that Bartlett could be a potential sleeper pick this season. Although their times this past weekend weren't super fast, we still have to give some credit to Bartlett who just took down a very established name in the NCAA. Is this a sign for things to come? You never know... Mile Former NC State and Elon standout Luis Vargas was the winner of this race as an unattached athlete. He was able to secure the win in a time of 4:o4 and helped drag Wake Forest's Sebastian Fischbach and Daniel Viegra to times of 4:07 and 4:08, respectively. 3000 We were treated to a great matchup among two SEC rivals. Tennessee's Zach Long battled the Alabama duo of Vincent Kiprop and Gilbert Kigen with Long securing the overall win in a very underrated time of 7:59. Kiprop was 2nd in 8:07 while Kigen was 3rd in 8:12. When you consider that this was a smaller race compared to the Armory, Washington, or Boston, Long's time of 7:59 is pretty impressive. At the moment, that performance is the 15th fastest time in the nation right now. If Long can get into a bigger and faster race, watch out for what he could do in the future. UW Invite 800 Overall, the race played out about as expected with Clay Lambourne taking the win while Stanford's Brandon McGorty was 2nd. Unfortunately, the times weren't as fast as many were hoping as Lambourne ran 1:49.94 while McGorty was 1:50.99. By no means are these times bad, but I think we definitely expected something a little bit faster. Mile The mile was a super exciting race mainly because of all the different types of athletes that we got to see. Before winning the 5k, Nike's Yomif Kejelcha took the win in this event with a time of 3:56. The 2nd place finisher was when we saw our first collegiate. Andy Trouard (NAU) was ready to prove that his sub 4 from this past summer wasn't just a fluke. Sure enough, the Lumberjack senior threw down an excellent time of 3:58 to defeat D2 star David Ribich who also clocked a 3:58 for 3rd overall. As we continue down the results, I was very excited to see Carlos Villareal (Arizona) run under 4 minutes for the first time in his career with a time of 3:59. Not only did he run under 4 minutes, but he did so in the 2nd fastest heat (not the invite section). He's been one of the more underrated milers over the past few years so it's nice to see that he actually has the PR's to back up his tactical racing skills as well. Villareal was the 3rd and final collegiate to break the 4 minute barrier as Kasey Knevelbaard ran a near identical time of his converted mile from last week with a finish of 4:00.15. He was the 4th collegiate in the race. How about Bradley's Daniel Gagne? We mentioned him as a name to watch in our preview article and I like to think that he was reading because he just ran an excellent time of 4:00.39. Hopefully we'll see him make one or two more hard efforts and get under 4 minutes later this season. Steven Fahy (Stanford) ran a very solid 4:00.60 while teammate Jack Keelan followed with a 4:02. That performance is great for Fahy, but just ok for Keelan who ran 3:58 last year. It's not a bad performance by any means, but I can't help but think that Keelan could be faster. The same goes for Colby Gilbert who finished the day with a 4:02. Again, this is not a bad time, but Colby Gilbert is a 3:58 miler and is running on his home track. His career numbers say that he should be better. Also how about Matthew Baxter running 4:02? We may dismiss Baxter as more of a long-distance guy (which he definitely is), but he also has plenty of speed to boast as well. 3000 When you look at all of the different athletes with unique racing styles and strengths, you could just feel that this was going to be a fast race. Sure enough, that was the case as Dillon Maggard (Utah State) blasted a 7:52.99 to take the win over a strong field. Does Maggard have the best range in the NCAA? It would be hard to argue against him... Yet, if Maggard doesn't have the best range in the NCAA, then Cameron Griffith certainly does. The Arkansas Razorback finished 2nd overall with a time of 7:54 while teammate Jack Bruce finished 3rd with a 7:55. Arkansas has mainly been led by Alex George and Jack Bruce, but the emergence of Cameron Griffith gives the Razorbacks another weapon to work with. So far this guy has run 2:23, 4:03, and now 7:54. For me, he's definitely in the All-American conversation. Rounding out the top five was Mike Tate (Southern Utah) and Andrew Jordan (Iowa State), both with times of 7:56. Honestly, those are about the times that I would expect from guys like these. When you look at Tate's 13:34 5k PR and Jordan's 15th place finish at XC Nationals this past fall, 7:56 seems to be a reasonable time for both of them. The top five may have been relatively predictable, but outside of that group is where things get interesting. Finishing 7th overall was Bradley's Michael Ward who ran a huge PR of 7:58. I don't know what Bradley is doing, but their development of Ward and Gagne is keeping the small school relevant on a very crowded stage of powerhouse programs. Another nice surprise was San Francisco's Jack Rowe also running 7:58. Ever since they had Alex Short, this team has quietly put together some very solid performances. This is most likely due to the combination of great recruiting, great coaching, and great team culture. The last NCAA athlete under the 8 minute barrier was Boise State's Addison DeHaven with a time of 7:59. As seen by his performances in the postseason, DeHaven can thrive on the big-stage. If he can get into another big race this season, I wouldn't be surprised to see his time drop even more. 5000 Yes, the professionals in this field were entertaining, but the collegiate results were very underwhelming. Alejandro Cisneros (Portland State) was the top NCAA finisher with a time of 14:19 while Luke Beattie (Utah State) was the next collegiate finisher in a time of 14:31. Razorback Invite 800 In what may have been the tightest race of the weekend, we got to see Devin Dixon (Texas A&M), Jaymes Dennison (Iowa State), and Jack Wilkes (LSU) battle it out in a thrilling 800 meters. Dixon and Dennison had the best resumes in the field (by far), but it was Jack Wilkes pulling off the upset win. Wilkes barely edged out Dixon with a time of 1:49.94 while Dixon was 1:49.95. Dennison was right there as well with a time of 1:49.98. Mile Dan Curts (Iowa State) was the winner in this one with a solid time of 4:03. He was able to out-run the rest of the field which included Jack Guyton (Florida), Bryan Kamau (Georgia), and Waleed Suliman (Ole Miss) in that order. All three of those men finished the day with an identical time of 4:04. DMR Over the past few weeks, we've mentioned that Texas could be a legitimate threat in the DMR. That may be so, but we have to see that actually come to fruition. In the meantime, their in-state rivals (Texas A&M) were producing solid relay results this past weekend. The Aggies threw down a very solid time of 9:39 (NCAA #5) to defeat the Florida Gators who were close behind with a 9:40 (NCAA #6). Indiana Relays Mile It took him a while, but after his 7th mile attempt, Indiana's Kyle Mau can now say that he is a sub 4 minute miler. With a time of 3:59, Mau is now 6th in the NCAA. However, that time will most likely not be enough qualify for NCAA's within the next month and half. Still, the idea that Mau could qualify for NCAA's is now becoming more and more realistic with each passing day. John Thomas Terrier Invite 800 At the front of the race, Sam Ellison and Eliud Rutto battled it out and earned an exciting finish. They were able to drag Sacred Heart's Trevor Guerrera to a fast time as well. Guerrera's time of 1:48.41 is good enough for 6th in the NCAA and now puts on the cusp of potentially qualifying for NCAA's. If he wants to secure himself a spot, he may want to get lower to that 1:48 flat mark, but this year seems unusually slower than most. 1000 The top collegiate in the field was Dartmouth freshman Nick Feffer who crossed the line in 2:26.65. He was followed by Daniel Schmith of UMass Lowell who also finished the day with a time of 2:26.96. Mile In a field filled with high-level professionals, Justyn Knight still emerged as one of the top entries. Shadrack Kipchirchir would barely edge out Knight in a tight battle to the line. However, both could walk away satisfied with the fact that they ran 3:55. Knight's time of 3:55.82 is now NCAA #2 (after conversion) and it also makes him a heavy favorite to win the mile title should he choose to forgo the 3000 and/or 5000 meters. The real question now is, will he? Unfortunately, Knight was the only collegiate in this meet who went under the 4 minute mark. However, the Syracuse men still put up some solid results. Freshman Noah Affolder and sophomore Aidan Tooker threw down solid times of 4:02 while veteran Philo Germano ran 4:03 to edge Iona ace Chartt Miller (who also ran 4:03). Overall, you have to be impressed with Syracuse's depth. Most of those guys are long-distance oriented and were able to run very fast times for dropping down in distance. I say this every year, but if Syracuse wanted to produce a top ranked DMR, they definitely could... 3000 While top pros like Kipchirchir, Bor, and Erassa battled at the front, Martin Martinez was having the race of his life. The Brown University senior finished the day as the top collegiate with a time of 7:59, his first time under the 8 minute barrier. Syracuse's Iliass Aouani was right behind Martinez with a time of 7:59. A time like that is about what we would expect from a talented long distance guy like Aouani. Colin Bennie also finished the race in a time of 7:59, but he was running unattached. It appears that he'll be redshirting this indoor track season. We should also note that Boston U's Paul Luevano finished the day as the third overall collegiate in a time of 8:02. 5000 This field may not have had the firepower that the mile and 3000 did, but Kevin James (Syracuse) did lock down a win and an NCAA #12 time of 14:17. #gzatlin #ncaa #analysis #recap #weekendreview
- Predictions & Previews: UW Invite & John Thomas Terrier Invite
UW Invite 800 The fastest heat of the 800 could be an exciting one as Utah State's Clay Lambourne will toe the line next to Arizona veteran Collins Kibet. Lambourne is coming off of an outdoor track season where he ran a big PR of 1:47 while Kibet is attempting to reignite the fitness he had in the early portion of his career when he ran 1:46.87. Yet, maybe the most exciting entry in this field is Stanford's Brandon McGorty, the freshman superstar who just ran 2:23 in the 1k two weeks ago. The younger McGorty brother already has PR's of 1:48 from high school which makes him a legitimate threat in this field...so much so that he could even win. Still, he'll need to battle through some highly-skilled veterans and put himself at the front. Speaking of fast freshmen, make sure you keep an eye on Washington freshman Devan Kirk who owns a personal best time of 1:51 from high school. He'll be competing in the 2nd fastest heat of the day and could mix it up some of the Washington State guys (Paul Ryan and Justin Janke) as well as Stanford's Christian White. FINAL PREDICTIONS (COLLEGE ONLY) 3. Collins Kibet (Arizona) 2. Brandon McGorty (Stanford) 1. Clay Lambourne (Utah State) Mile This will most likely be the race of the day as multiple heats of this event could set up for some very fast times. In the fastest heat, we'll get to see some of the NCAA's most underrated milers toe the line and engage in what should be an exciting race with multiple sub 4 minute results. In terms of just the collegiates, I think it's fair to say that D2 star David Ribich is the favorite to be the top finisher. The guy already has a personal best of 3:39 in the 1500 and has become one of the biggest breakout stars over the past two track seasons. His 2:21 1k to defeat Oregon's Reed Brown and Mick Stanovsek a few weeks ago shows that he is in top fitness. He could very easily go under 4 minutes this weekend. Dare I say 3:57? I don't think I'm exaggerating. Luckily for Ribich, he'll be pushed by some established milers. Kasey Knevelbaard, another recent star that has emerged over the past two track seasons, may have the most wicked kick in all of the NCAA. If the race turns tactical or he's close to the leaders at the end, he could very easily snag a win. With a personal best of 3:40 in the 1500, Knevelbaard is a contender to take the win. Others like Jack Keelan, Andy Trouard, and Colby Gilbert are all experienced stars in their own right who all own personal bests under the 4 minute mark. Gilbert should thrive in a meet like this when you consider that he's racing on his home track. He's run 3:58 here before and should be able to do that once again. Yet, one name in the fast heat that you need to know is Bradley's Daniel Gagne. Gagne has plenty of big race experience and owns a very solid PR of 3:43 in the 1500. He's a great tactical runner and could play a big role in this race. Don't underestimate these Bradley athletes... The next fastest heat still has plenty of big-time talent such as Carlos Villareal who ran 4:02 last weekend. He's been a consistent miler throughout most of his career, but now could be the time where he really breaks out and has a head-turning performance. Other Names To Watch: - Patrick Perrier (Stanford) - Thomas Coyle (Stanford) - Isaac Cortes (Stanford) - Steven Fahy (Stanford) - Tai Dinger (Stanford) - Joe Maloney (Weber State) - Matthew Baxter (NAU) - Justin Janke (Washington State) FINAL PREDICTIONS (COLLEGE ONLY) 7. Daniel Gagne (Bradley) 6. Carlos Villareal (Arizona) 5. Andy Trouard (NAU) 4. Jack Keelan (Stanford) 3. Colby Gilbert (Washington) 2. Kasey Knevelbaard (Southern Utah) 1. David Ribich (Western Oregon) 3000 Remember when I said the mile was going to be the event of the day? I could be wrong when you look at the firepower that is headlining this field. Some of the top collegiates in the country have come together for what should be a monster 3k. Overall, there isn't one name that pops out and strikes me as the favorite. Mike Tate (Southern Utah) has the fastest 5k PR in the field with a 13:34, but we haven't seen him much in the 3k distance. The same goes for Cameron Griffith who has been running some excellent times in the mid-distance events lately, but hasn't ever competed in the 3000 according to TFRRS. Andrew Jordan is an interesting name to consider. He has an 8:07 PR from last indoor track season, but he is most likely in better shape than that after a monster cross country season where he finished 15th overall at Nationals. He's been working on his speed in the weeks leading up to now with multiple mile appearances. Hopefully that speed works complements the endurance that he was able to build up in the fall. The final three names that I'll be watching are Dillon Maggard, Jack Bruce, and Garrett Corcoran. Maggard has been on a tear as of late after an NCAA #1 mile (4:00.03 converted) and a 6th place finish at NCAA's this past cross country season. This guy is a monster with incredible range when you consider that he has a 13:41 5k PR and a converted mile PR of 3:58. We haven't seen Maggard run a serious 3K recently, but his combination of speed and endurance could make him the perfect 3K runner. As for Jack Bruce, he not only has great times (3:41, 7:58, 13:38) but his silver medal from NCAA's last spring gives him the status of an experienced veteran. He has been working on his speed as of late which is an encouraging sign for a race that could come down to a quick finish. The final name that deserves a mention is Garrett Corcoran, the California senior who has gone under the radar in terms of overall performances. Corcoran may be the most adept to handling the rigors of the 3K which is a tough cross between speed and endurance. With a personal best of 7:52 and mile speed of 3:59, Corcoran could definitely be a key factor in this race. Admittedly, he can be a little streaky with his performances. However, in a race like this where the pace will be pushed, I imagine that he'll thrive and dip into the mid-7:50's. Other Names To Watch: - Andrew Rafla (Boise State) - John Whelan (Washington State) - Addison DeHaven (Boise State) - Michael Williams (Washington State) - Michael Ward (Bradley) - Noah Schutte (Portland) - Kasey Knevelbaard (Southern Utah) FINAL PREDICTIONS (COLLEGE ONLY) 6. Cameron Griffith (Arkansas) 5. Andrew Jordan (Iowa State) 4. Garrett Corcoran (California) 3. Mike Tate (Southern Utah) 2. Jack Bruce (Arkansas) 1. Dillon Maggard (Utah State) 5000 As far as the pro's go, this field may be the most stacked. Nike Oregon Project's Galen Rupp and Yomif Kejelcha will battle Hoka One One's Scott Fauble and Matt Llano in a race that is most likely a speed workout for guys who have marathon aspirations. As for the collegiates in this race, I must admit that the field seems rather light. Utah State's Luke Beattie and James Withers are coming off of respectable cross country seasons and could translate that xc fitness to the track. In the 2nd heat, you may also want to keep an eye on guys like Paul Ziess (California) and Jake Finney (Washington State) as they could be solid sleeper picks for a fast time. FINAL PREDICTIONS (COLLEGE ONLY) 3. Paul Ziess (California) 2. James Withers (Utah State) 1. Luke Beattie (Utah State) John Thomas Terrier Invite 800 Like most distance events at the John Thomas Invite, the 800 is a huge event with 137 entries in total. Of those entries, the collegiate that catches my eye the most has to be Sacred Heart's Trevor Guerrera who has run 2:24 for 1K so far this season. Guerrera is someone who often comes out strong at the beginning of the season which leads me to believe that he'll flirt with a sub 1:50 this weekend. Despite Guerrera's impressive range from the 800 to the 3000, Brown's Zach Emrich could pose as a threat with a personal best of 1:49.12. Emrich is more of a shorter distance guy who boasts a PR of 1:03 in the 500 which will make this an interesting matchup when racing against Guerrera. Of course, if we're going to talk about Zach Emrich, then we also need to talk about his teammate Zach Lanigan. Unlike Emrich, Lanigan has a focus on the mid-distances with personal bests of 1:49.89, 2:28, and 3:48. So which Brown runner will best handle a race against Guerrera? The one with better speed or the one better endurance? FINAL PREDICTIONS (COLLEGE ONLY) 3. Zach Emrich (Brown) 2. Zach Lanigan (Brown) 1. Trevor Guerrera (Sacred Heart) 1000 The 1000 is a lot like the 800 with a ton of entries, but only a handful of athletes to talk about. Zach Lanigan, as mentioned in the 800, is also entered in the 1K. He has nice range and a PR of 2:28 in this event, but he'll need to battle with Providence's Nick Carleo who just ran a 4:09 mile earlier this season and owns a PR of 2:27 in this event. Assuming Lanigan opts to stay fresh for this race, then we could see a great matchup with a result that is as fast as 2:26. FINAL PREDICTIONS (COLLEGE ONLY) 3. Nick Feffer (Dartmouth) 2. Zach Lanigan (Brown) <--if he doesn't run the 800 1. Nick Carleo (Providence) Mile Looking for a fast race? This could one of the fastest races of the weekend as Justyn Knight will match up against a field of elite-level pro's such as Shadrack Kipchirchir, Peter Callahan, Kirubel Erassa, and many more. If he runs 3:56 or faster, then does Knight pursue this event at NCAA's? It would be interesting to see how he stacks up in a mile... Knight will also be joined by teammates Aidan Tooker and Philo Germano. We don't often see Germano in a race as short as this, so it will be interesting to see how he handles the distance. Of course, Syracuse is not the only college program bringing their top athletes. Iona's Chartt Miller is an established miler who has great experience against some of the best runners in the NCAA. With a 1500 PR of 3:43 and a mile PR of 4:00, Miller will certainly be in the mix among the top collegiates. We also can't ignore the Michigan low-sticks of Connor Mora and Aaron Baumgarten. Last year at this meet, Mora dipped under 4 minutes for the first time in his career and earned a personal best time of 3:59. In a field like this, he should definitely be close to that mark again. As for Aaron Baumgarten, his PR of 4:03 could definitely improve this weekend and maybe even scare the 4 minute barrier. So how many sub 4 minutes can we expect? Last year we saw four collegiates under that mark and I think we could see the same number again this year with the most likely suspects being Knight, Miller, Mora, and a surprise name. Who could that surprise name be? It's tough to say, but if I had to guess I would say Aidan Tooker. As a freshman, Tooker ran a 4:02 at this meet last year and is coming off of a monster cross country season where he finished 10th at the Wisconsin Invite. All signs point to a sub 4 minute time for him this weekend... Other Names To Watch: - Chase Barnett (Michigan) - Johannes Motschmann (Iona) - Leakey Kipkosgei (American International) - Noah Affolder (Syracuse) FINAL PREDICTIONS (COLLEGE ONLY) 6. Chase Barnett (Michigan) 5. Aaron Baumgarten (Michigan) 4. Chartt Miller (Iona) 3. Connor Mora (Michigan) 2. Aidan Tooker (Syracuse) 1. Justyn Knight (Syracuse) 3000 The 3000 is filled with a slew of professionals, but the collegiates will certainly make things exciting. Syracuse's Iliass Aouani will be one of the top collegiates in this field with a lifetime best of 7:57 which he ran at this very meet last year. He had a limited role with Syracuse's varsity this past cross country season so it's tough to know what we should expect from him this weekend. Although Aouani will be a tough challenger, Georgetown's Jonathan Green will most likely be the top college athlete in this field. He may "only" have a PR of 8:08 in this event, but he just cruised to a very easy 8:11 on the double a couple weekends ago at the Penn State Challenge. After such an outstanding finish to his cross country season, Green most likely has the momentum to run something fast this weekend. When I look to see if there are any others that could challenge for the win as the top collegiate, I can't help but think Liam Dee could be in the mix. Iona is fielding a heavy portion of their distance squad in this race, but Dee's resume stands out the most. With a strong mile PR of 3:58 complemented by times of 8:02 and 14:04, I can't help but think that Dee could contend with Green and Aouani. In addition to those three, I'm excited to see how Paul Luevano and Alex Seal will do on their home track. Luevano is definitely a longer distance guy who can stick with a pace if it gets fast. On the other hand, Seal's mile speed could come in handy if other top competitors are within striking distance at the end of the race. Despite all of the big names that are coming from D1, we can't forget about someone who could potentially contend for the win (or at least finish as the top collegiate). That runner is Tiffin's James Ngandu, the 2017 D2 XC Champion and 9x All-American who owns PR's of 8:03 and 13:46. He would need a significant drop in his 3k time to contend for the win, but I wouldn't put it past him to do so when you consider the string of performances we've seen from him over the past year. FINAL PREDICTIONS (COLLEGE ONLY) 5. Liam Dee (Iona) 4. Paul Luevano (Boston U.) 3. Iliass Aouani (Syracuse) 2. James Ngandu (Tiffin) 1. Jonathan Green (Georgetown) 5000 If we're being honest, the field doesn't have the same firepower that the mile and 3000 fields do. It appears that Syracuse is entering some of their distance-oriented guys which could make up most of the top times that we see from the first few collegiate finishers. The field is rather thin, so it's tough to say who you should watch out. However, I will say that I am waiting for a big time from Kevin James (Syracuse). He is due for a breakout performance. In fear of making predictions without the proper research, here are just some of the top collegiates that you should watch out for this weekend... Names To Watch: - Kevin James (Syracuse) - Domenic Hockenbury (Syracuse) - Joe Dragon (Syracuse) - Simon Smith (Syracuse) - Aaron Hanlon (Providence) #preview #predictions #ncaa #gzatlin #analysis
- A Glance Ahead
With a number of big meets ahead of us (UW Invite, John Thomas Terrier Invite, Penn State National Open, etc.) it is easy to get excited and speculate about the weekend. Although the fast times are definitely on the way, there have been plenty of other performances so far this season that might give us an idea of what to expect in the future. These aren't necessarily predictions, but more of an idea of what may be to come. Here is some speculation and general thoughts that we have gathered so far.. Kentucky's DMR(s) Just a couple of weeks ago, we saw the Wildcats produce two DMR's that finished 1-2 at the Kentucky Invite. The 'A' Relay finished in 9:49.16 while the 'B' relay finished in 9:49.95. Right off the bat, you might be thinking that these are two very average DMR's that have a long way to go until they are in NCAA qualifying position. And you would be right! However, what if these two DMR's put their best legs together to create something even faster? Two underrated mid-distance studs in Benjamin Young and Ian Jones were on the 'A' relay while Kentucky's ace (Jacob Thomson) was on the 'B' relay. We may not know the exact splits from either of these squads, but it's probably be safe to assume that this team could produce something much faster if they were to combine their best legs from each relay. This past weekend at the Clemson Invite, Thomson, Jones, and Southard all secured wins in their respective events. Thomson even put up an NCAA #1 time of 7:53 in the 3k. Simply put, there are a lot of decent pieces that could make Kentucky a threat in the D-Med this year. For now, enjoy the fast times that other teams put up, but don't forget about the potential of this squad. Still no Matthew Maton... After a rough end to his indoor season last year, Matthew Maton was MIA throughout the entirety of outdoor track and cross country. You could argue that Maton was just taking a redshirt season to save eligibility, but to be out of commission for two seasons is when things get a little suspicious. Is Maton healthy and just saving eligibility? Or is he dealing with a nagging injury that won't go away? A heavy majority of this Oregon team is young, so it may make sense to have Maton around for another few seasons so that he can help them grow and adjust. Still, we didn't see him race at the UW Preview a couple of weekends ago. Surely he would have raced then if he had planned on competing during this indoor season. Trying to figure out redshirt/injury situations like these are never easy. You have no idea when someone could make their debut or even if they will at all. We could absolutely still see Maton compete this weekend or even into February, but so far it's looking like he may be missing his 3rd consecutive season. Penn State is holding back for something big In their first meet of the season, the Nittany Lions looked strong with Jordan Makins earning a win over Roshon Roomes in a time of 2:24. The favorite in that race was initially Domenic Perretta, but he hopped out with 800 to go as he finished his duties as the rabbit. In the mile, Colin Abert threw down a very solid time of 4:02 to take the win while Isaiah Harris made his season debut with a time of 4:07. Fast forward to the Clemson Invite and things have flip-flopped. Isaiah Harris was a DNS in the 800, an event he was favored to win. Perretta, on the other hand, was able to try his chops in the mile where he was able to get a win with a conservative time of 4:10. So what exactly is Penn State's plan? Why are we seeing Harris and Perretta acting as rabbits and not even toeing the lines to race? Why are they doing off-distance events? Performances like this usually means that a team is going through some off-distance, fine-tuning and is planning to unleash their superstars all at once in a single meet. UPDATE @ 2:37pm, 1/24 (article was started on 1/23) Sure enough, that seems to be the case as both Harris and Perretta are entered in the 800 this weekend at the Penn State National Open. Expect Harris to push the pace and throw down something big in response to Michael Saruni's 1:45 from earlier this season. While we're on the topic of Penn State, the Nittany Lions could gather a lethal DMR if they wanted to. Colin Abert looks like a great guy to have on the anchor leg while Harris, Perretta, and Makins look like the perfect guys to attack the 1200 and 800 legs. This team always produces top-tier DMR's and this year may be no different... Indiana can be a distance powerhouse (if they can get over the hump) Indiana is a team that races a lot during the season which means that their coaching staff gives their athletes a lot of chances to run fast. With so many opportunities, Indiana may have a chance to go to Nationals and score a majority of their points with distance runners, much like Oregon has done over the years. Ben Veatch is now NCAA #3 in the 3000 meters (7:58) and NCAA #2 in the 5000 meters (13:57). Those times are going to need to improve, but we're looking at the very real possibility that Veatch qualifies for Nationals in both the 3000 and 5000. Not only that, but Kyle Mau is also listed at NCAA #4 in the 3000 meters (8:03). Speaking of Kyle Mau, it is more likely that he will pursue the mile this season just like he did last year (rather than the 3k). After anchoring Indiana's DMR to a 5th place finish last year, Mau has the experience of racing against some of the best in the nation. As of right now, he is sitting at NCAA #6 with a 4:02 mile. I would expect that time to eventually get faster and dip under the 4 minute barrier, but what really matters is if he can get into that 3:58 range and qualify for Nationals. Of course, we can't just ignore one of Indiana's best. Daniel Kuhn is an established ace among 800 runners in the NCAA and should be set to repeat as an All-American once again this indoor season. After running an earth-shattering 1:01 for 500 meters in December, Kuhn clearly has the speed to dip into the low 1:46 range within the next month and half. Finally, Indiana's DMR could be at the top of the NCAA once again. Yes, guys like Kuhn and Mau would need to double, but the Hoosiers could very easily be among the top five finishers in a DMR field that is always wide open. The only problem with all of this is that Indiana needs to get over "the hump". With the exception of Kuhn, Veatch and Mau are not guaranteed to get into NCAA's. They are definitely talented enough to be some of the best distance runners in the nation, but they need to enter that next tier of fitness where they can safely get to the starting line at Nationals. If they are able to accomplish that, Indiana would have potential scorers in the 800, Mile, 3000, 5000, and DMR (Kuhn, Mau, Veatch, Veatch, Relay). #gzatlin #analysis #ncaa #indoortrack
- TSR Mailbag: Part 4
Have a question or comment? Feel free to go to our HOME page and fill out the form in the "TSR Mailbag" box. No email required! "Last year G-Town shocked the field with a 3rd place finish, and did so without using their star 800m runner. Three of the four focused on the relay, (Fahy/Wilson/Brown/Carpenter) while Carpenter was the only one who ran an individual event. My question is this: Is there any team like this who doesn't have many runners chasing individual goals so they could focus on the DMR? (Brown, Green and Carpenter might qualify individually this year, so I wouldn't pick G-town as a sleeper again)" - EtrainFan I love talking about the DMR mainly because there are so many pieces and different ways that teams could run the relay. You never know who is going to run it and who could surprise you with a big leg. I think the best answer to this question may be found in an article that we posted a couple weeks ago, Destined For the D-Med? . In that article, we talked about six teams who could potentially surprise a lot of people in the DMR this season. Of those teams, I think Iowa State and Texas best fit the description you're looking for. Iowa State certainly has a lot of strong pieces that could find a spot to Nationals individually (Jordan, Roomes, Dennison). However, I'm not convinced that any of them will be locks to make it. While some teams would be concerned about that, I like to think that this is actually a good thing for the Cyclones who won't be bogged down by individual commitments. Coach Smith will have plenty of options in Jaymes Dennison, Roshon Roomes, Dan Curts, Zach Black, Andrew Jordan, and Festus Lagat (the former JUCO star who got snubbed of a mention in our Destined For the D-Med? article). Overall, I think there are too many good pieces to ignore and that a focus on this relay would be more beneficial for a Cyclone squad that may not have anyone capable of becoming an All-American in an individual event (yet). As for Texas, I definitely think Alex Rogers and Sam Worley could potentially dip under the 4 minute barrier this season, although I'm not convinced that either of those two could be fast enough to make it NCAA's individually. Together, these two could create a nasty 1-2 punch that is capable of putting them out front and keeping them in a medal position on the anchor. Admittedly, the Longhorns lack the same firepower at the 800 leg and they don't necessarily have the same depth that Iowa State does. Still, I like to think that Texas could dismiss their individual goals for this season and go all-in on the DMR. Finally, I think there is one team that might surprise a few people: the Wisconsin Badgers. Historically, the Badgers haven't always the pursued the DMR during the winter track season. In fact, the Badgers tend to race less than most teams during the winter. Adding to that, it appears that Morgan McDonald will be focusing on the Australian Commonwealth Games this winter and taking his 2nd consecutive redshirt season. Still, with all of this in mind, I think the Badgers have enough pieces to put together something respectable in the D-Med. Eric Brown is a stud 800 runner who just posted a converted time of 1:49 a few weekends ago. Unfortunately, Isaiah Harris has stolen much of the spotlight throughout Brown's time in the BIG 10, but he could certainly be an excellent piece for Wisconsin to rally around. In addition to Brown, Oliver Hoare is a sub 4 minute miler (when he ran unattached this past summer) who could very easily put this team into contention on the big stage. When you pair Hoare with veteran teammate Joe Hardy (3:43/4:04), you get a VERY strong relay throughout each leg. Hardy's tactical prowess combined with the untapped potential of Hoare's mile speed could be the perfect formula for an All-American relay. "Which of the current NCAA #1's have the least likely chance of actually qualifying for Nationals? " - DezCaughtIt I think it's important to note that this question was asked prior to the action that took place this past weekend. At that time, Saruni (800), Abert (Mile), Chemadi (3000), and Rotich (5000) were the NCAA leaders. For some reason, TFRRS does not have Emmanuel Rotich listed on the NCAA leaderboard despite him running 13:52 at the Boston Season Opener in December. For this article, we are assuming that Rotich is the NCAA leader in the 5k. In addition to Rotich being the top runner in the 5k, we are also going to assume that this question is in regards to the current NCAA leaders and not the leaders from last week. The current NCAA leaders in the distance events are Saruni (800), Maggard (Mile), Thomson (3000), and Rotich (5000). For the sake of the argument, we will leave out the DMR... When you look at the 800, it seems pretty clear that Michael Saruni is not only going to qualify for Nationals, but he is most likely going to finish the season with the fastest time in the country. With a time of 1:45, Saruni is an automatic lock to qualify for the Big Dance barring any dramatic circumstances such as injury. In the mile, Dillon Maggard of Utah State currently leads the nation with a converted time of 4:00.03. Based on historical numbers from 2010, it seems pretty clear that his time will not be fast enough to qualify for NCAA's by the end of the season. However, Maggard is an experienced, high-level veteran who has made it to Nationals in this event before. I am struggling to believe that he couldn't run a 3:58 low in this event by the end of February. At the same time, even if he doesn't run a time like that, he still has enough talent and enough range to qualify for NCAA's in the 3000 or 5000 if he were to pursue those events. In my mind, Maggard is a safe bet to qualify for Nationals. The current leader in the 3000 meters in Kentucky’s Jacob Thomson with a time of 7:53. He’s ahead of the rest of the NCAA by about five seconds. Most of the time, that 7:53 usually is enough to stay safe for NCAA’s. However, if we are in a year that is slightly faster than the average, that 7:53 may not be a guaranteed lock to Nationals. It will be extremely close for Thomson if he doesn’t run the 3k again, but I like to think that he’ll at least make one more big effort in this race before NCAA's. Plus, we still have to factor in the idea of athletes scratching from this event. So will Thomson get qualify? My gut says more likely than not... The final event is the 5000 meters and Tulane star Emmanuel Rotich is at the top of the NCAA leaderboard with a time of 13:52. That time, although very impressive, is going to need to improve. Since 2010, it has taken approximately 13:48 to safely secure a qualifying spot to NCAA's. With scratches, Rotich could get in right now, but even then that might be a stretch. Rotich is super talented and to run 13:52 in December is an encouraging result. With that in mind, there is still a huge group of talented 5k runners that are waiting to unleash something fast. Rotich will need to jump into another fast race and bring down his time by a few seconds if he wants to earn on a spot on the starting line come March. Do I think Rotich will still qualify for Nationals? Yes, I do. The season is still young and he has two solid wins under his belt so far this season. Nonetheless, when I compare him to these other NCAA leaders, I would say that he is in the toughest position to qualify for Nationals as of right now. #analysis #indoortrack #mailbag #gzatlin #ncaa
- The Weekend Review: 1/21/18
Vanderbilt Invite 800 One of the deepest events of the weekend was the Vandy Invite 800. The two highlights of this event were... a) the freshmen and b) Mississippi State. The win was taken by Mississippi State's Marco Arop, a freshman who ran a very strong time of 1:48.21. As if that wasn't impressive enough, Ole Miss' freshman Waleed Suliman was 2nd in 1:48.94. Dejon Devroe (Mississippi State) was 3rd overall in 1:49.13 while Missouri freshman Christopher Conrad was the last man under 1:50 with a time of 1:49.84. Sophomore Daniel Nixon (Mississippi State) rounded out the top five with a time of 1:50.10. If I'm the Mississippi State Aggies, I'm very excited about these performances. Not only is this early on in the season, but they have three underclassmen who can run 1:50 or faster. Could one of these guys be the next Brandon McBride? You never know... Mile The mile was won by former Oklahoma State Cowboy and current Asics pro, Craig Nowak with a time of 3:58. Derek Gutierrez, an Ole Miss veteran running unattached, finished runner-up in 4:01. It wouldn't be until 3rd place that we saw the first collegiate cross the line: Kigen Chemadi. The MTSU junior finished the day with a 4:03 while Alabama junior Gilbert Kigen was 4th in 4:05. In total, 10 men were under 4:10. One notable performance out of that top 10 was Cade Bethmann. The Mississippi Rebel finished the day 7th overall with a solid time of 4:07. Not a bad time for the true freshman. 3000 Emmanuel Rotich (Tulane) and Vincent Kiprop (Alabama) had a nice battle with Rotich taking the win, 8:03.17 to 8:03.91. Nahom Solomon (Georgia Tech) rounded out the top three with a time of 8:04. In total, six men were under the 8:10 mark. 5000 Belmont's Kaleb McLeod took the win with a time of 14:23 while Auburn's Coleman Churitch was runner-up in 14:32. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. College Invite 800 Josh Kerr, the 1500/mile champion from last year, went back to work this past weekend and secured the win with a time of 1:48. For most athletes, that time would be a huge mark. For Kerr, it's a simple rust-buster time in preparation for what should be a monster winter campaign in the mile. Mile After an up and down sophomore year, Jonah Koech (UTEP) was able to come out with a strong performance and grab the victory with a time of 4:05. However, when you factor in altitude conversions, Koech's time gets converted to a 4:00 mile. Runner-up was taken by sophomore John Carter-Blunt (UCLA) in a time of 4:13. With a conversion, that time becomes a 4:07. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. College Invite 800 Sam Coleman (Utah State) was the first to cross the line with a time of 1:53.95. With an altitude and flat-track conversion, Coleman earns a time of 1:51.73. Mile Dillon Maggard (Utah State) is showing that he is entering the prime of his collegiate fitness. With a winning time of 4:08, Maggard's conversion becomes an NCAA #1 time of 4:00.03. Teammate Body Smith was runner-up in 4:12 which gets a conversion of 4:03 (NCAA #10). Larry Wieczorek Invite 1000 The top attached collegiate finisher was Kansas State's Lukas Koch with a time of 2:24. Dan Curts (Iowa State) was the next man in with a time of 2:25. Mile Arizona's Carlos Villareal came out with a strong performance and established himself at the top of the NCAA with a time of 4:02. Andrew Jordan (Iowa State) was runner-up in 4:08. Nathan Mylenek (Iowa) rounded out the top three with a time of 4:09. Samford January Invite Mile In a field of professionals, Arsene Guillorel (Samford) stood out among the best. He finished 5th overall, but he was able to grab a time of 4:01. That is a pretty solid early-season performance for a guy who is known as a 3k/5k guy. Clemson Invite 800 Ian Jones (Kentucky) earned a nice win over some underrated mid-distance talent. The Wildcat senior earned the win in a time of 1:50. Malik Epps (Clemson) and Otis Jones (South Carolina) finished 2-3 and were also under the 1:51 mark. Mile After finishing his rabbiting duties at the Nittany Lion Challenge last week, Domenic Perretta (Penn State) was able to earn himself a win this past weekend with a time of 4:10. He out-ran Kentucky's Matthew Thomas who also ran 4:10. 3000 Statement. Race. Kentucky's Jacob Thomson has always been one of the better long-distance runners on the east coast, but after this weekend he is certainly in the conversation as one of the best in the nation. In fact, that is actually the case as Thomson erupted for an NCAA #1 time of 7:53 in the 3k this past weekend. The Wildcat senior was able to separate himself from a field of underrated and talented individuals which included Jaret Carpenter (Purdue), Ben Young (Kentucky), and James Quattlebaum (Clemson). Unfortunately, recent history has shown that 7:53 may be just a little too slow to qualify for NCAA's. Still, a time like that this early in the season is a nice way to put the NCAA on notice. Jacob Thomson is for real. Michigan Simmons-Harvey Quad Mile (Invite) Much like Guillorel, Cameron Griffith (Arkansas) and Jack Bruce (Arkansas) were the few collegiates put into a field full of professionals. The result was Cameron Griffith running a time of 4:03 while Jack Bruce was 4:05. It may not seem like a lot, but Cameron Griffith is slowly putting together some very underrated performances when you factor in his 2:23 1k earlier this season. Mile (Open) Michigan State's Morgan Beadlesbomb was the winner in a time of 4:08 while Ohio State went 2-3 with Luke Landis and Kevin Blank crossing the line with times of 4:09 and 4:11. 3000 Michigan's Micah Beller earned a hard-fought win over Michigan State's Clark Ruiz, 8:12.96 to 8:12.99. Texas A&M Quandrangular 800 The ending of Texas' cross country season was a tough one mainly because Sam Worley was a DNF and a DNS in the final two meets of their season. However, any uncertainty surrounding his health was put to rest this past weekend as Worley took the win in an excellent time of 1:50.62. Could he go sub 4 in the mile this winter? Mile Alex Rogers (Texas) took down rival Alex Riba (Texas A&M), 4:07 to 4:08. With Worley and Rogers both taking wins, you can't help but think of what the Longhorns could do in the DMR... Lumberjack Team Challenge Mile / 3000 Kasey Knevelbaard (Southern Utah) made a statement this past weekend by blowing away the field and taking the win in a time of 4:09. That may not seem all that special, but with an altitude conversion, that time is 4:00.40 and an NCAA #3. It's hard not to think that Knevelbaard could be an NCAA qualifier this year. As if that time wasn't impressive enough, Knevelbaard would later go on to win the 3k with a time of 8:44. With a conversion, that time becomes 8:22. Gladstein Invite Mile In a field of Midwest distances powerhouses (EKU, Indiana State, Indiana), Taylor FloydMews (Bradley) was the winner with a surprisingly strong time of 4:04. We have seen Bradley produce some great runners and this is just another name to add to their growing distance crew. 3000 It was a big day for the Indiana men in this event as freshman Ben Veatch unleashed a 7:58 to take the win while teammate Kyle Mau was runner-up in 8:03. In just two races this season, Veatch already has two wins with two excellent times of 13:57 and 7:58. If he gets put into a field of elite-level NCAA runners, he could definitely earn a spot to Nationals. Meanwhile, Kyle Mau is showing off some impressive range... Placing 3rd and 4th overall was Butler's Daniel Garcia and Barry Keane, both with times of 8:08. Slowly but surely, Butler is building a high-level distance group that could battle with some of the best in the near-future. Don't sleep on the Butler Bulldogs. Keydet Invite Mile The Campbell and Virginia Tech men clashed in the mile this past weekend. The top collegiate to cross the line was Lawrence Kipkoech (Campbell) in 4:06 while Virginia Tech's Daniel Jaskowak and Jack Joyce rallied to cross the line in 4:07 and 4:08. Campbell's Amon Kemboi rounded out the top five with a time of 4:09. 3000 Virginia Tech flexed their talent in the 3k as they took the top four spots overall (all under 8:20). Patrick Joseph was the winner in a time of 8:13. #gzatlin #analysis #recap #weekendreview #ncaa #indoortrack
- TSR Mailbag: Part 3
Have a question or comment? Feel free to go to our Home page and fill out the form in the "TSR Mailbag" box. No email required! "After this weekend...Michael Saruni or Isaiah Harris?" - Jack L. Neither... Ok, no, only kidding. This is a good question and I'm surprised it hasn't come up until now. For those who don't know, Michael Saruni popped off a monster 1:45.92 800 to demolish former teammate Emmanuel Korir's old meet record of 1:46.50. A time like that (especially this early) is otherworldly. To give you an idea of how good that time is, only two others have broken the 1:46 barrier since 2010: Edward Kemboi (2014) and Donavan Brazier (2016). The time is certainly impressive and it gives Saruni the favorable nod in what will assuredly be a back and forth debate until NCAA's. However, what you don't know about Kemoi and Brazier is that in the year that they broke into the 1:45 range, they failed to win the indoor NCAA 800 meter title. We also have to keep in mind that Saruni has had some very bad luck at NCAA's the past two track seasons with a DQ during last indoor season and an unfortunate fall in the 800 final during NCAA's last outdoor season. It's easy to get excited about a 1:45, but let's slow down and remember that Isaiah Harris still needs to have his turn. 1:45 is certainly not out of the realm of possibility for him. The Penn State junior ran 1:44 during the USA Championships this past summer and has been on some of the biggest stages in the world. In addition to that, let's also keep in mind that Saruni ran 1:45 on an oversized track. He'll most likely be slower on a crowded 200 meter track. Then again, most of us know the resumes that each of these guys boast. If you forced me to pick a guy right now, I'm probably taking Isaiah Harris. Saruni's time, although incredibly fast, was not unexpected. Meanwhile, Isaiah Harris just ran a 4:07 mile which, for a 400/800 guy, is REALLY solid. Still, there is no event in the NCAA that is more 50/50 than this one. "When are we going to see that first sub 4 minute mile and who will run it?" - iEatTidePods You're all laughing, but you know there is definitely someone out there who is thinking "you know this Tide Pod doesn't taste too bad". I digress... At this point in the season, with some big meets already taking place, I too have been anxious to see when we'll see the first set of sub-four milers enter the fray of the NCAA rankings. Yet, as history has shown, we need to patient. Last year, Brian Barraza (Houston) came out of nowhere to run 3:58 in December, but we never saw another sub 4 after that until January 27th at the John Thomas Terrier Invite. The same thing happened in 2016 when Patrick Corona (Air Force) was the first guy in the NCAA run under four minutes on January 21st (altitude converted). Sean McGorty (Stanford) was the first man to dip under four minutes in 2015 on January 17th. Overall, history suggests that we won't see that sub-four minute mile until this upcoming weekend (January 20th). At the very latest, that sub-four minute mile will come no later than January 27th. At the moment, there doesn't appear to be any super fast meets for distance runners coming up this weekend. However, with UW Invitational and John Thomas Terrier Invite on the 26th and 27th, we can almost a guarantee that a handful of athletes will dip under the legendary barrier at those meets. As for WHO will be the first to break the sub 4 mark, that question is a bit tougher. Syracuse is a team that has often sent some of their best guys to John Thomas, while the UW Invitational presents an excellent opportunity for teams like Oregon, Stanford, Washington, and Oklahoma State. If I had to guess who would be the first few guys under four minutes this year, I would have to assume either Justyn Knight, Sean McGorty, Colby Gilbert, Matthew Fayers, or pretty much anyone from Oregon. Obviously, those aren't guarantees. We don't even know what these guys will run. Still, that group is the most likely to go under four minutes first based on previous meet entries over the years. "How far can Campbell go in XC next year/how fast does their #5 runner need to be?" - DirtMonster In a time that has been dominated by track speculation, I appreciate a cross country question to change up the tempo. In order to project Campbell's future in 2018, we need to review their accomplishments in 2017. When we look the Panorama Farms Invite this past September, we saw a Campbell squad scare Virginia for a possible upset. The Cavaliers pulled away in that meet winning 55 to 59, but would continue to struggle throughout the regular season until they snuck into NCAA's and placed 16th overall. When you compare Campbell's top four runners to Virginia's top four at Panorama Farms, the Camels blow UVA out of the water with placements of 1, 2, 4, and 10 for a total score of 17 points. For Virginia, their top four went 5, 7, 12, and 14 for a score of 38, more than double of what Campbell had put up. However, that dreaded 5th man proved to be an issue for the Camels as he would go on to place 42nd in that meet while UVA's 5th man finished 17th. Fast forward to Pre-Nats and we saw the trend continue. The Camels put together a very solid showing where they placed 8th overall with their top four finishing 3rd, 23rd, 26th, and 37th. That 5th man? 251st. Actually, considering there was over a 200 point drop-off after their 4th scorer, Campbell actually did extremely well. The Southeastern Regional Championships was no different for Campbell as their top five finished 1, 2, 18, 24, and 143. They would finish 5th on the day. Although they had a couple of Kolas points and had their top two runners qualify for NCAA's, the rest of the team would have to head back home and cut their season short. The good news for Campbell is that their ENTIRE squad from last year's team return in 2018. Another year of training and development will be key for the Camels if they want to thrive as national contenders. Still, their is only so much improvement that their top four can bring to the table. The real question will be whether or not they can find a secure and reliable 5th man. With an entire year to address that issue, it's very possible that they do find someone... So what should the end goal for this Camels team be? Realistically, if they have a trustworthy 5th man, they can make it NCAA's and potentially place as high as top 15. In order to do that, they'll need to go to some big-time meets (like Pre-Nats) and earn enough Kolas points to get through a deep Southeast region. Additionally, their 5th man doesn't need to be all that spectacular either. Let's take a look at Pre-Nats last year. The Camels were 8th with 340 points. If their 5th man is even 100 spots better and places 151st instead of 251st, then Campbell defeats two NCAA qualifying teams, Utah State and Texas. If their 5th man finishes 101st, the Camels finish 5th overall and defeat an established Ole Miss program. Let's apply the same methodology to the Southeast Regional Championships where Campbell's 5th man finished 143rd overall. If he's just 23 spots better, they defeat NC State and kick them out of an NCAA qualifying spot and potentially direct the Kolas Calculator in their favor. So how good can Campbell become? Pretty much as good as their 5th man wants to be. Again, he doesn't need to be spectacular, but he does need to make notable progress and improvement. #analysis #ncaa #gzatlin #indoortrack #XC #mailbag
- The Weekend Review: 1/14/18
Yale Collegiate Invite 1000 Sacred Heart’s Trevor Guerra continues to impress us after dropping a very strong 1k time of 2:24 this past weekend. We’re only a few weeks into the winter season, but Guerra is quietly putting together some very solid performances. Don’t be surprised if he continues to drop even more time later this winter. Commodore Invite 800 Wow. What an opener from Michael Saruni. It’s no secret that Michael Saruni is one of the best half-milers in the nation. Entering this winter, everyone suspected that he would be in the running to be a national champion despite his struggles on the big stage in previous seasons. But to come out and run a 1:45.92 in his first first race of the season? That is a level of fitness that is just unheard of, especially for January 13th. There are only two other individuals since 2010 who have hit under 1:46 during indoors: Edward Kemboi and Donavan Brazier. The catch? In the year that they ran under 1:46, neither Kemboi nor Brazier won the national title. Could Michael Saruni be the one to break that trend? Finishing the day as the 2nd collegiate was another UTEP Miner, Jonah Koech, who crossed the line with a time of 1:50.31. He was closely followed by Lipscomb junior Ryan Speer (1:50.34) and two Florida athletes, Justin Pacifico and Jack Guyton (1:50.37 and 1:50.84 respectively). Mile Lipscomb not only had a pleasant surprise in the 800, but they also a very strong performance from their freshman Jonathan Schwind who ended the day with a win and a time of 4:11.01. Schwind was able to beat out Georgia Tech’s Alex Grady who ran 4:12.77. Don’t underestimate this win from the Lipscomb frosh. Grady is a very solid name to beat and there are few things as dangerous as a talented freshman with a lot of confidence. To open up with a win and gain momentum early in the season could result in some serious progress from Schwind as we enter the later portion of January and go into February. 3000 We have our first sub 8 minute time of the season! After opening up with a strong mile in December, the Middle Tennessee duo went back to work this past weekend and attacked this 3k field. Kigen Chemadi eventually broke away from the field and comfortably secured a winning time of 7:58. Teammate Jacob Choge fell back to 2nd and ended the day with a time of 8:16. It seems that Chemadi is definitely at another level right now. That time won’t be enough to get him into NCAA’s, but it’s definitely a positive sign as move forward. If he gets into a fast race, low 7:50’s is not out of reach for the MTSU junior. Ted Nelson Invite 800 John Lewis continues to make statement races and secure big-time wins. The Clemson junior has gone from another decent 800 runner to a potential breakout star. Lewis secured the win this past weekend with a time of 1:49.22 to defeat 2nd place by nearly three seconds. The time may not be out of this world, but when you add in his 2:21 1k and 4:06 mile, it’s clear that Lewis has the range, speed, and strength to fight for an All-American spot this winter. Mile Keagan Smith (Army West Point) was able to lock down a win this past weekend with a time of 4:09.61. The time isn’t necessarily amazing, but it’s another nice mark for Smith who already recorded a solid result earlier this season. Ian Cazares (Texas A&M) was 2nd on his home track with a time of 4:13.71. 3000 James Quattlebaum (Clemson) went back to work this season and was able to narrowly get the win over Jacob Perry (Texas A&M), 8:18.76 to 8:18.81. Kentucky Invite 800 Welcome back, Daniel Kuhn. The Indiana mid-distance star took the win by two seconds with a solid time of 1:49.05. Teammate Jordan Huntoon was runner-up in a time of 1:51.10. Mile The Kentucky Invite treated us to one of the deeper mile fields of the weekend as we saw Indiana pack into the top four spots with Kyle Mau leading the way. Mau secured a time of 4:02.77 while teammates Joseph Murphy, Teddy Browning, and Ben Veatch all finished with times of 4:07. With a convincing win like that, it seems clear that Mau is in a position to go under the legendary four minute barrier later this winter. Rounding out the top five was Ohio State’s Luke Landis who ran a time of 4:08.57. He was able to edge Akron’s Garrett Crichlow who finished in a time of 4:08.61. Kansas vs Kansas State vs Wichita State Triangular 800 / Mile There weren’t a lot of flashy times, but Kansas sophomore Bryce Hoppel put together a nice pair of wins this past weekend. In the mile, Hoppel earned a winning time of 4:10.67 which later got converted to 4:07.52 due to the flat-track. He later doubled back and took the win in the 800 with a time of 1:52.99. His flat-track conversion knocked that time down to 1:51.40. 1000 Lukas Koch (Kansas) walked away with the win after running a time of 2:29.81. Unfortunately, TFRRS doesn’t have 1000 times listed for altitude or flat-track conversions. If we were to give an estimate of the conversion, the time would be around 2:27 low. Minnesota vs Wisconsin Dual 800 We got to see one of the BIG 10’s top middle distance runners step onto the track this weekend. Eric Brown (Wisconsin) held off freshman Dawson LaRance (Minnesota) for the win, 1:51.55 to 1:51.69. With flat-track conversions, those times are actually 1:49.98 and 1:50.12. Mile Wisconsin’s Oliver Hoare grabbed the win in his indoor debut with a time of 4:13. Converted, that time is 4:10.74. 3000 Joe Hardy (Wisconsin) finished the day in first with a time of 8:26 which was eventually converted to 8:21. BYU Cougar Indoor Invite Mile It’s tough not to get excited about the BYU men every time they race. The Cougars hosted Utah Valley at their indoor invite, but they would essentially run the table by taking the top three spots in the mile. Abraham Alvarado took the win in a time of 4:09.60 while Marcus Dickson was 4:12.65 and David Graham was 4:14.41. Because they are at altitude, these times get a HUGE conversion. Alvarado’s time gets converted to 4:04.70 while Graham’s time gets converted to 4:09.42. Since Dickson already has a converted time faster than this one, his converted time is not listed on TFRRS. 3000 Two BYU stars in the making toed the line to give us an exciting result. Clayson Shumway and Connor Mantz finished 1-2 with times of 8:15.93 and 8:18.70. With the altitude conversions, Shumway’s time is actually 8:05 flat while Mantz’s time becomes 8:07.71. What’s even crazier is that these two men have eligibility as freshmen due to taking time off for their mission trips. It looks like they will be the future of BYU for quite some time… Nittany Lion Challenge 1000 The focus of this event was initially on sophomore Domenic Perretta. However, it appears that he was simply the rabbit for this race and took them through 800. Instead of Perretta, Penn State’s Jordan Makins battled with Roshon Roomes and edged the Iowa State sophomore for the win, 2:24.71 to 2:24.75. Those are great times for both athletes and it may give Makins a confidence boost knowing that he can beat a 1:47 guy. Mile The main story of this race was that Penn State’s Isaiah Harris would be making his season debut in the mile. However, it would be his teammate Colin Abert securing the glory (and win) by crossing the line in first with a time of 4:02.50. After an athlete from Latvia finished in 2nd with a 4:04, we then saw Harris cross the line in 4:07. He was followed closely by Georgetown’s Jonathan Green (4:08) and Villanova’s Logan Wetzel (4:09). This is a huge win for Colin Abert who had so many strong performances in the 1500 and mile during his freshman year. However, he didn’t seem 100% during the 2017 seasons and lacked the edge that we were all looking for. A race like this is super encouraging for the future. 3000 Jonathan Green (Georgetown) would later double back in the 3000 and go 1-2 with teammate Spencer Brown in what appeared to be a very comfortable performance. The Hoya duo would finish the day with times of 8:11 while Ben Malone would round out the top three with a time of 8:15. UW Preview 1000 In what had to be the event of the weekend, fans around the country were treated to some fast times and strong debuts in the 1000 meters. In the fastest race of the day, Brooks Beast pro Drew Windle (and former D2 runner) led the field with a time of 2:20.95, but was challenged by Western Oregon’s David Ribich who finished close behind in 2:21.38. In a field full of top-tier D1 talent, it was the D2 guys who made the biggest statements… One of the bigger surprises of the day was Oregon’s superstar frosh, Reed Brown, making his season debut. The freshman blew expectations out of the water with a 3rd place finish and a monster time of 2:21.49. Teammate Mick Stanovsek (a sophomore) was .04 behind in a time of 2:21.53. Oregon’s future looks very, very bright… Rounding out the top five was another freshman star, Brandon McGorty. The Stanford frosh ran 2:23.56 to finish 5th on the day. It’s also worth noting that Colby Gilbert (Washington) ran 2:25.29, Austin Tamagno (Oregon) ran 2:26.99, and Penn State transfer Jaxson Hoey (Oregon) won his heat with a solid time of 2:27.59. Mile Speaking of transfers and new recruits, we finally got to see Oregon’s newest weapon in action. James West, the distance star from England, toed the line next to a field full of professional athletes. He hung tough and finished 6th on the day (the top collegiate) with a very strong time of 4:04.49. It’s also worth noting that collegiates Brandon Pollard (Gonzaga), Noah Schutte (Portland), and Jack Yearian (Oregon) would end the day with times of 4:08.00, 4:09.25, and 4:09.67 respectively. 3000 The headlines were focused on top-level pros like Craig Engels, Sam (George) Parsons, and Michael Jordan, but we still saw some nice results from Dustin Nading (Western Oregon) and Tom Coyle (Stanford). Nading ended the day with a time of 8:11 while Coyle ended his off-distance attempt with a time of 8:12. Wolverine Invite Mile While the top pros caught the attention of most around the nation, we still got to see some strong marks from the collegiates in the state of Michigan. Freshman Owen Day (Eastern Michigan) secured the win in a time of 4:08.79 while Chase Barnett (Michigan) was a close second in 4:08.88. Hlynur Andresson (Eastern Michigan), Anthony Berry (Michigan), and Wuoi Mach (Grand Valley State) rounded out the top five with 4:09’s. Ed Jacoby Invite 800 Utah State’s Dillon Maggard attempted some off-distance work this past weekend and was able to deliver a win in a time of 1:52.33. 1000 Jordan Butler (Utah State) secured the win in a time of 2:27.80. Mile Boise State alum David Elliot returned to his alma mater to take a win in a time of 4:06. However, it would be current Bronco Addison DeHaven securing the top collegiate spot in a time of 4:08. Utah State’s Clay Lambourne was 3rd in a 4:09. Dick Taylor Carolina Cup 800 / Mile Stefano Migliorati (Eastern Carolina) took double gold this past weekend after running 1:54.62 and 4:13.63. However, with flat-track conversions, those times become 1:53.01 and 4:10.44. Snake River Open Mile One of the more pleasant surprises of this past weekend was Weber State’s Joe Maloney grabbing a win in a time of 4:09.58 at altitude. With a conversion, that time is actually 4:04.82. Could Maloney be a name to watch in February? Hawkeye Invite 1000 Curts (Iowa State) earned the victory in a time of 2:27.38 which was enough to edge out Kevin Dougherty (Iowa) who ran 2:27.90. Zach Black (Iowa State) finished 3rd in 2:28.22. Mile The Iowa duo of Nathan Mylenek and Michael Melchert went 1-2 this past weekend with times of 4:10.08 and 4:11.54. Arkansas Invite 1000 One of the more under-appreciated performances of the weekend was seeing Arkansas’ Cameron Griffith run a big time of 2:23.21 while teammates Jack Bruce and Ethan Moehn each finished with times of 2:25. For guys who are distance-oriented, these are some incredibly impressive times. Hopefully, this means a fast mile for them in the future… Tulsa’s Robert Tully was 4th in 2:26 while Kyle Hosting (Arkansas) rounded out the top five with a time of 2:29. In total, eight individuals dipped under the 2:30 mark. #analysis #gzatlin #weekendreview #indoortrack #recap
- Predictions & Previews: UW Preview & Nittany Lion Challenge
UW Preview 800 The shortest distance that we'll be covering is admittedly the least exciting event from a collegiate point of view. Still, there are slew of strong names scattered throughout this field. With professionals like Clayton Murphy and Andy Phillips entered to race, they could potentially drag this field to some fast times. As far as collegiate athletes go, the main name to watch should be Kinsly Smith, the senior out of Gonzaga. With a personal best of 1:51, he is above and beyond some of the other names in this field. A bad day for him would be a great day for a lot of his other competitors. Kyler Sager of Western Washington is the other collegiate that you need to keep your eye on. His personal best of 1:54.9 isn't mind-blowing, but when you add on a PR of 2:28 in the 1k, Sager becomes a formidable opponent. FINAL PREDICTIONS (COLLEGE ONLY) 3. Christian Parr (George Fox) 2. Kyler Sager (Western Washington) 1. Kinsly Smith (Gonzaga) 1000 The 1k should be very exciting this year mainly because there are so many big-name individuals who could potentially make their season debut. Freshmen superstars Reed Brown (Oregon) and Brandon McGorty (Stanford) will step onto the track as collegiates for the first time in their careers. Brown is, of course, known for his 1:48/3:59 high school PR's while McGorty is better equipped for this distance with personal bests of 1:48/2:24/4:13 from high school. McGorty may have the edge over Brown in this race, but both are plenty talented enough to finish the day as the top collegiate if everything goes right. Along with Reed Brown, we'll hopefully get to see a slew of Oregon's best such as Austin Tomagno, Mick Stanovsek, and Jack Yearian. However, the most exciting Ducks will most likely be English recruit James West and Penn State transfer Jaxson Hoey. West owns times of 1:49 and 3:39 (1500) while Hoey is coming off of an injury-plagued year at Penn State where he was still able to put together times of 1:53 and 3:50 (1500). We also can't ignore David Ribich, the D2 star from Western Oregon who has set out on a mission to show that he just as good as some of the top talent in D1. His personal bests of 1:49/2:28/3:41 and multiple experiences racing on this track could make him a strong sleeper pick for this race. Yet, as far as college athletes go, Colby Gilbert is probably best suited for this event. The Washington veteran has PR's of 3:40 (1500) and 2:25 (1k), the most experience of anyone in this field, and gets to race on his home track. It will be hard to pick against him in this one... FINAL PREDICTIONS (COLLEGE ONLY) 6. Reed Brown (Oregon) 5. James West (Oregon) 4. Austin Tomagno (Oregon) 3. David Ribich (Western Oregon) 2. Brandon McGorty (Stanford) 1. Colby Gilbert (Washington) Mile The mile field is set to be an interesting one as a variety of pros are scattered through the field while many long-distance studs attempt to go down in distance. As you first read through the entries in this field, you can't help but notice Oregon's Tanner Anderson, Bryan Fernandez, Travis Neumann, and Levi Thomet on the performance list. These Ducks are typically found running distances no shorter than 3000 meters, so I'm not really expecting a lot of monster performances from them in this race. Jack Yearian and Jackson Mestler are the other Oregon athletes entered in this race. They have a bit more experience running the mile and could do well in a field that isn't overwhelmed with the PAC-12 talent that they are typically used to seeing. Other distance-oriented talents like Sam Wharton (Stanford), Fred Huxham (Washington), Nick Hauger (Portland), Noah Schutte (Portland), and John Whelan (Washington State) will all drop down in distance in an attempt to gain some speed work before they pursue events such as the 3k and 5k. If you're looking to pick an athlete that is a bit more attuned to the mile distance, Stanford's Patrick Perrier might be a good option. With a history of strong and consistent performances in the middle distances, Perrier's PR's of 3:44 (1500) and 2:25 (1k) might be enough to emerge as the top collegiate. FINAL PREDICTIONS (COLLEGE ONLY) 7. Tanner Anderson (Oregon) 6. Jackson Mestler (Oregon) 5. Noah Schutte (Portland) 4. Nick Hauger (Portland) 3. Jack Yearian (Oregon) 2. Fred Huxham (Washington) 1. Patrick Perrier (Stanford) 3000 The 3k could be one of the more surprising races of the day. The field is full of recently-turned pros who could make this an extremely fast race. There are many top collegiates set to race such as Nick Hauger (Portland), Travis Neumann (Oregon), and Sam Wharton (Stanford). Of course, as you have probably already noticed, those three guys are also entered in the mile. Based on the other other entries from this meet, I would be surprised if these guys actually toed the line for the 3000 as most teams appear to be trying some off-distance racing. As we delve deeper into these entries, I can't help but like Gonzaga's Jake Perrin who has PR's of 8:09 and 14:04. He may not be from a flashy Power Five program or have an elite resume, but he's certainly someone to watch out for. I'm also a big fan of the Alaska Anchorage men. They always have some solid talent and produce some great results. If you're looking for someone in particular, be sure to keep an eye out on Henry Cheseto who owns times of 8:11 and 14:08. Finally, I'll be watching Stanford's Isaac Cortes in this race. Throughout his freshman year, Cortes was mainly thought of as a middle distance stud who could be competitive in anything from the 800 to the mile. Now, Cortes is coming off of a very strong cross country season where he played a huge role. His endurance is definitely at an all-time high so this race may not be as a much of an "off-distance" event for him like many might assume. FINAL PREDICTIONS (COLLEGE ONLY) 5. Tristan Peloquin (Portland) 4. Patrick Perrier (Stanford) <-- only if he doesn't run the mile 3. Henry Cheseto (Alaska Anchorage) 2. Isaac Cortes (Stanford) 1. Jake Perrin (Gonzaga) Nittany Lion Challenge 800 Much like the field at the UW Preview, the Nittany Lion Challenge won't have any fireworks in the 800 as only seven individuals are entered to race, one of whom is running unattached. Bucknell will be fielding four men from their mid-distance team which includes Scott Gulizio who owns a personal best of 1:51. It's tough to say if there is anyone who will really challenge as Gulizio as he seems to clearly be the best in the field. FINAL PREDICTIONS (COLLEGE ONLY) 3. Ryan Scott (Maryland) 2. David Frering (Bucknell) 1. Scott Gulizio (Bucknell) 1000 The 1k field will prove to be a bit more exciting. Although we won't have the exciting matchup of Joe White vs Isaiah Harris that we saw last year, we will get to see Penn State sophomore Domenic Perretta and Iowa State sophomore Roshon Roomes go head-to-head. Perretta had stand-out winter and spring track seasons last year as a freshman with times of 1:47/2:23/3:46. Meanwhile, Roomes had a breakout season of his own last spring where he dropped times of 1:47 and 2:26. There's no reason to doubt that either of these individuals won't be at the top of their game this weekend which should make for an exciting matchup. However, with Perretta on his home track, he may have the advantage. Penn State's Jordan Makins is another 800 specialist who could have a strong impact in the 1k this Satuday. With PR's of 1:48 and 2:22, Makins could be a great sleeper pick if you're looking for a potential upset. FINAL PREDICTIONS (COLLEGE ONLY) 3. Jordan Makins (Penn State) 2. Roshon Roomes (Iowa State) 1. Dom Perretta (Penn State) Mile One of the more underrated events of the day is the mile which will feature some star names. Names such as Colin Abert (Penn State) and Jonathan Green (Georgetown) are the names to watch on paper, but Isaiah Harris has been capturing some attention as of late with an entry into the mile. We've seen guys like John Lewis (Clemson) move up to the mile this indoor season and have some success. Could Isaiah Harris take the nation by surprise and drop something fast? If Harris wants to stand out in this race, he'll need to get past a 4:04 miler in Green and a 4:03 miler in Abert. Georgetown also has plenty of other underrated talent that could have an impact such as Jack Salisbury and Reilly Bloomer while Penn State will also field their other long-distance Tim McGowan who qualified for NCAA's this fall. Yet, maybe the one name that we're all forgetting about is Ben Malone. The 'Nova veteran is one of the best tactical runners on the east coast, boasts experience at outdoor Nationals, and owns monster PR's of 1:48 and 3:39 (from June 2016). In a race like this, don't be surprised if Malone ends up as the victor. FINAL PREDICTIONS (COLLEGE ONLY) 6. Reilly Bloomer (Georgetown) 5. Isaiah Harris (Penn State) 4. Jack Salisbury (Georgetown) 3. Colin Abert (Penn State) 2. Jonathan Green (Georgetown) 1. Ben Malone (Villanova) 3000 This race will most likely turn into the Georgetown vs Villanova show. The Hoyas will field high-level veterans Amos Bartelsmeyer and Scott Carpenter while the Wildcats are set to run up-and-coming stars Andrew Marston and Casey Clinger. In a race like this, Bartelsmeyer and Carpenter have the better resume and Carpenter should be the favorite to win it all. However, don't dismiss the recent success we've seen from this Villanova duo, especially Marston. They will certainly make things interesting and potentially push this field to a fast time. Others like Ben Malone and Jonathan Green are also entered in this race, but I imagine that they will pursue the mile rather than this race. Keep an eye out for Will Bordash (Bucknell), Charles Cooper (Georgetown), Paul Power (Villanova), and Patrick Hanley (Maryland). FINAL PREDICTIONS (COLLEGE ONLY) 6. Paul Power (Villanova) 5. Will Bordash (Bucknell) 4. Casey Clinger (Villanova) 3. Amos Bartelsmeyer (Georgetown) 2. Andrew Marston (Villanova) 1. Scott Carpenter (Georgetown) #preview #predictions #analysis #gzatlin #ncaa #indoortrack
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