TSR's 2025 D1 "Way Too Early" NCAA XC Preview (Men's Teams)

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Ah, yes.

Cross country.

My favorite time of the year.

Unlike track and field, there is far more volatility (for distance running) during the fall months. Cross country allows us to focus on both the individual and team battles. And for the latter, with seven different runners battling for five scoring spots on each team, the variable nature of each lineup leaves us with far more subjective analysis to offer.

With so much to talk about, I wanted to begin putting pen to paper (or fingers to keyboard) and provide an early look at what the 2025 cross country season may look like. Yes, it's still early and yes, we're still reaching out to coaches on who is and isn't returning (and being added). Even so, I thought it would be a good idea to dip our toes into the water and chat about a few items for later this fall.

Today, we'll start with the Division One men.

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NOTE: Any analysis offered in this article is not meant to be an indication of where an athlete or team will or will not be ranked in our preseason lists. Eligibility is based off of TFRRS and any feedback that coaches have been able to offer us. We also could not get to ALL nationally relevant teams in this article. Just because a team was not mentioned does not necessarily mean that they are less relevant than other teams which were highlighted.

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I can't believe I'm saying this, but...I don't know if I can confidently point to who the preseason national title favorites are on the men's side. Sure, I've had limited convictions in prior preseason picks, but I gotta admit, it feels like four teams could realistically win gold in November.

Let's start with the BYU men, the defending national champions from last year. According strictly to TFRRS, the Cougars lose A LOT of firepower, specifically Casey Clinger, Creed Thompson, Joey Nokes and Lucas Bons. Those are brutal losses given that those four men placed 6th, 12th, 31st and 39th at the NCAA XC Championships last fall. Those performances were also (mostly) accurate reflections of how their seasons went as a whole.

Yes, it's true, almost no coach in the country can organically replace low-sticks like Ed Eyestone can. Even so, losing your top-four national meet scorers, each of whom were All-Americans and two of which were top-half All-Americans, would crush most teams for the following season.

And honestly, I'm not even sure if I can convince myself that this will team will have enough to return to NCAA team title contention in 2025.

The good news is that Davin Thompson should be returning and steeplechase megastar, James Corrigan, will likely return as well. Those two men weren't All-Americans last fall, but they have been in the past. They are also more-than-capable of being top-30 talents in the country on the right day.

Let's also not forget that this team picked up a huge name in Thomas Boyden, a graduate transfer from Stanford. Admittedly, the former Cardinal ace has struggled on the national stage, but he did have a breakout year on the track, running times of 7:41 (3k), 13:21 (5k) and 28:09 (10k). He should emerge as an All-American threat later this fall.

Plus, with BYU historically boasting the best distance depth in the NCAA, there is no doubt in our minds that the Cougars will once again contend for the podium. The only question is, where on that podium will they place?

We then move to Oklahoma State, a team that truthfully underwhelmed at the NCAA XC Championships last fall. The Cowboys settled for an 8th place finish in Madison, Wisconsin last fall after coming in as national title favorites.

The good news for Coach Dave Smith is that Oklahoma State doesn't lose too many make-or-break scorers. Yes, Victor Shitsama is out of eligibility and the same can be said for Ryan Schoppe. But out of those two men, Shitsama was the only real All-American threat. In terms of impact scoring, he is the only one who truly needs to be replaced.

Thankfully, the elite 1-2 punch of Brian Musau and Denis Kipngetich should be back and better than ever. Fouad Messaoudi is also returning. And despite massively struggling at last year's national meet, he has an extensive history of success in the postseason on the grass. His poor outing at the 2024 NCAA XC Championships was a clear and obvious fluke.

Through three runners Oklahoma State has a trio of elite low-sticks. The question, however, will be whether or not they can build out the rest of their cross country lineup. And if they can, then will the best version of their top-five run well on the same day?

Laban Kipkemboi and Adisu Guadia are the two biggest names to watch. The former ran 3:53 in the mile this past winter while the latter placed 50th at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships. However, Guadia has struggled quite a bit as of late.

With tons of developmental depth spread throughout the rest of this roster -- think Henry Dover (13:36 for 5k), Ayden Granados (13:42 for 5k) and Jacob Deacon (13:51 for 5k) -- and maybe a potential international name still to join, there is enough room for the Oklahoma State men to contend for NCAA gold. However, it will be their depth, not their superstars, who dictate whether or not that happens.

New Mexico is a really fascinating team to consider. Prior to this past weekend, I would have absolutely viewed them as legitimate national title threats. However, The Stride Report recently reported on Saturday that Lobo phenom Ishmael Kipkurui has signed a pro contract with Nike. In turn, he will not be racing for New Mexico this fall.

Even so, I still think the Lobo men have a shot at competing for the team title come November. Part of that is because of the immense aerobic talent that is littered throughout their roster. The other part is because, truthfully, the men's national team title race feels fairly wide-open right now.

Elite low-stick Habtom Samuel is set to return as is Collins Kiprotich, another All-American from last fall. Tack on an 8:17 steeplechaser in Matthew Kosgei and a two-time cross country All-American in Evans Kiplagat, and you get what may be the best top-four in the NCAA going into the fall of 2025.

The challenge, however, is that the New Mexico men have a Kipkurui-sized gap in their top-five. Had they retained their Kenyan superstar, then you could have realistically argued that this team was going to win the NCAA team title.

In fact, it may not have been an argument at all!

The good news for Coach Darren Gauson is that his supporting cast has tons of talent and plenty of upside.

Take, for instance, Lukas Kiprop. He has run 7:47 for 3000 meters and has often thrived at a handful of mid-sized meets such as the Roy Griak Invitational and the Mountain West XC Championships. And how about Vincent Chirchir? He produced a head-turning 11th place effort and earned top-seven finishes at his conference and regional meets last fall. Let's also not forget about Iker Sanchez Lopez, the Arizona transfer who had great success this past spring, running a 5k PR of 13:37!

On paper, New Mexico has all of the weapons they need to win NCAA gold. But their biggest obstacle ahead? Ensuring that everyone is running at their best on the same day. The Lobos may have the most natural distance talent out of any team in the nation this fall. However, their lack of consistency and reliability from crucial names has limited their upside. Half of UNM's top-seven simply must perform when it matters the most.

If that happens, then they could win NCAA gold. But if just one name falters, then the likelihood of that happening plummets...dramatically.

And then there is Iowa State, a team that continues to put themselves in the podium conversation. But in a year where there is less conviction behind who could win NCAA gold, there's potential for the Cyclones to contend for the top spot on the podium come November.

The challenge, however, is that Iowa State loses Said Mechaal, Gable Sieperda and Timothy Sindt. For most distance programs, that trio of departures would be brutal, especially the former name was a 10th place All-American last fall. And truthfully, in the eyes of some, those losses may be too much for Iowa State to remain in the national title hunt.

Thankfully, there are still encouraging aspects to consider.

The return of Robin Kwemoi Bera and Joash Ruto is huge. Sure, those men didn't crack the top-30 at the NCAA XC Championships last fall, but they still ended their seasons as All-Americans. And after seeing them make the progress that they have over the last year, it wouldn't be surprising if that duo ended their 2025 fall campaigns as top-half All-Americans.

Let's also not forget that the NCAA has granted an additional year of eligibility to athletes who were previously at the JUCO level, but then transferred into the NCAA. That is massive for Iowa State, largely because Sanele Masondo, their two-time top-30 All-American, can return for this fall! His expected return maintains a massive level of scoring potency for the Cyclones.

Not only that, but Devan Kipyego is arguably better than what his 94th place finish at last year's NCAA XC Championships suggested. Remember, this is the same guy who placed 33rd at the Nuttycombe Invite and 30th at Pre-Nationals. Kipyego has low-stick potential, especially now that he has more experience.

Even so, the biggest reason why we're still high on the Cyclones is because they should still have Rodgers Kiplimo.

The Kenyan distance star had a breakout 2023 fall campaign, specifically at the national meet where he earned a stunning 37th place All-American finish. The challenge, however, is that he has struggled with consistency since then, failing to match the caliber of that performance until this past spring.

Over the last few months on the outdoor oval, Kiplimo dropped a monster 10k time of 27:52 at the Stanford Invite. And to validate that performance, the Iowa State veteran ventured to the NCAA Outdoor Championships where he earned a brilliant 4th place All-American finish in that same event!

The 2025 outdoor track season was the first time that Kiplimo has put together a truly complete and nationally competitive NCAA season. If those efforts are translatable to the grass this fall, and we have every reason to believe that they are, then Iowa State's firepower doesn't look nearly as depleted as we once thought. Sure, they'll still need better depth, but who is to say that they won't continue to add international standouts later this summer? If that happens, the ISU will almost certainly be in the national title discussion.

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Alright, so we've already talked about the four main national title threats for later this fall...what about everyone else?

Wake Forest is, personally, one of my favorite cross country teams in the NCAA this year. In fact, that has largely been the case for the last few seasons. Coach John Hayes has slowly but surely built up a long distance contingent with elite recruiting class after elite recruiting class. And now, after just missing the podium in the fall of 2022, the Demon Deacons are primed to avenge their elders with a potential podium finish of their own.

I am personally not willing to put the Wake Forest men in the national team title conversation...yet. They lose a low-stick in Luke Tewalt, some of their names are still on the younger side and they don't have as much proven firepower as other top distance programs (mainly the ones listed above) do.

That said, their lineup options are seemingly endless.

Rocky Hansen is one of the five-to-10 best low-sticks in the country, Charlie Sprott was a 32nd place All-American last fall, JoJo Jourdon could be an All-American in 2025 after coming seven spots short of that honor last year, Joseph O'Brien is one of the most stable middle-lineup scorers in the NCAA and Aidan Ross made massive improvements over the last year, specifically this past spring.

On paper, Wake Forest has one of the most complete scoring fives in the entire country. And with tons of elite, still-young distance stars sitting in the shadows of their roster, the idea that one or two additional names could break out in the near future is plenty possible!

Is it impossible for the Demon Deacons to compete for NCAA gold as a team this fall? No, they are definitely capable, but that requires numerous men delivering on their immense upside on the national stage.

Let's also chat about another up-and-coming team that is centered around a lot of younger and once-young runners: Oregon.

It is naturally interesting to talk about the Ducks for multiple reasons. They have the most iconic brand in distance running, boast tons of depth, made great progress last year, are under the direction of an elite distance coach in Jerry Schumacher and have had a fairly young roster for the last few years.

Now, in 2025, the question is this: What is the next step for this PAC-12-turned-BIG 10 powerhouse?

The return of Aiden Smith (an All-American last fall) and Simeon Birnbaum (a 3:37 runner for 1500 meters who was a lead scorer on the grass last year) should give Oregon a high-upside 1-2 punch. We saw how dangerous Smith can be when he has momentum under his legs and it feels like there is potential for Birnbaum to emerge as an All-American low-stick this fall.

Usually, I would be worried about the upcoming losses of crucial backend scoring veterans such as Evan Dorenkamp, Elliott Cook and Quincy Norman. And yet, this team is far too deep and far too talented for that to matter.

Benjamin Balazs didn't exactly blow us away last fall, but he did run a head-turning time of 8:24 in the steeplechase this past spring. He should be an impactful name at the middle portion of this lineup, especially with a key year of experience under his belt. Similarly, fellow underclassman Tayson Echohawk showed signs of promise last fall, taking 17th place at the BIG 10 XC Championships and making improvements on the track.

Abdel Laadjel, a veteran graduate transfer from Providence, has run 13:29 (5k) and 28:29 (10k) on the track. He has made tremendous strides since placing 106th at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships and could make a similar impact that Birnbaum did last fall. And what about Evan Bishop? The valuable graduate transfer from Wisconsin didn't compete last fall, but he has seemingly rebounded from an injury fairly well. He could offer crucial scoring stability to a still-young team.

With tons of elite youngsters still in development, the upside of this program is borderline overwhelming. Of course, we said something similar about the Ducks last year. The difference between now and then, however, is that this year's group is more proven and has more experience. Oregon seems to be aggressively recruiting every chance they get and it's hard to imagine them not getting better, at least in terms of roster personnel, in 2025.

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Let's chat about the University of Virginia, a team that has often been frustrating to figure out when it comes to cross country.

Now, admittedly, I am biased against the Cavaliers. I am, after all, a proud alum of their arch rival, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech). And yet, over the last few cross country seasons, the UVA men have simply underwhelmed. Despite multiple generous preseason rankings from TSR, the Hoos have left us wanting so much more. That's especially true when you consider their struggles on the national stage.

Thankfully for them (and not-so-thankfully for my Hokies), the Virginia men look WAY more complete as a cross country team this fall. After struggling with depth and craving great backend scoring stability for (at least) the last two years, the UVA men have seemingly solved that issue.

Earlier this year, the Cavaliers signed long distance standouts Nicholas Bendtsen (via Princeton), Daniel O'Brien (via Princeton) and Brett Gardner (via NC State). They also signed Harrison Witt and Samuel Rodman (both via Princeton), but those latter two men are more focused on the middle distances.

Bendtsen, at his best, is a high-impact low-stick who can thrive in a variety of different meets. He was an All-American in 2023 and still retained brilliant scoring value for the Tigers in 2024. Meanwhile, O'Brien is highly experienced. He seemingly has a high floor and he has had multiple occasions where he has held his own on the national stage.

And Gardner? Well, he just ran 8:29 in the steeplechase this past spring and has finished in the top-80 of the NCAA XC Championships before. He has low-stick potential which could bridge both halves of this lineup.

With Gary Martin acting as an outstanding low-stick, Will Anthony holding similar value and Nathan Mountain stabilizing this lineup with great scoring prowess of his own, the Cavaliers have never looked so complete.

Could this truly be the year where Virginia not only cracks the top-10 at the national meet, but maybe even makes it onto the podium? A lot would need to happen in order for that to happen, but their floor feels tremendously high. And if they can find enough firepower, which is possible, then so is a top-four spot at the NCAA XC Championships.

It's also hard to believe that we've gotten this far in our conversation, but have yet to mention Northern Arizona.

The Lumberjacks have lost their famed head coach, Mike Smith, who is now coaching the Nike pro group, Swoosh Track Club, in Flagstaff. Not only that, but they have also lost low-stick star David Mullarkey and multi-time All-American veteran Santiago Prosser. Fellow scorer Corey Gorgas, one of the most reliable middle-lineup names in the NCAA, has also expired his eligibility.

Those three men were also NAU's top-three scorers at the NCAA XC Championships last fall.

Now, in fairness to Northern Arizona, there are still numerous pieces for Coach Jared Cornfield, the team's former assistant who is taking over as head coach, to play mix and match with. In terms of depth and options, NAU should have multiple combinations that they can try.

Admittedly, Colin Sahlman is coming off of a highly underwhelming year on the track. He did, however, have a very solid fall campaign (placing 67th at the national meet) and, at his very best, may hold fringe All-American potential.

The Lumberjacks also have Justin Keyes (86th at the national meet) and Ford Washburn (13:37 for 5k this past spring) as well as Aidan Puffer, Manny Perez and Cael Grotenhuis. We also can't forget about Derebe Ayele, a 13:38 (5k) newcomer from Israel.

Even so, the need for firepower in Flagstaff, Arizona isn't just evident -- it's glaring.

Northern Arizona has been the picture of perfect cross country roster building for the last decade. To see them going through a bit of a down-turn -- which could still mean that they're a top-10 squad in the NCAA this fall -- is admittedly surprisingly and hard to process.

Of course, if any distance program can make the most out of what they have, then it's almost certainly going to be NAU. There was no one better to replace Mike Smith than Jared Cornfield. And in terms of development, firepower is debatably easier to produce when you have a number of high-upside talents like the Lumberjack men seemingly do.

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There are a large handful of teams that we have not yet spoken about. That, however, is not necessarily a bad (or good) thing. We only have so much space to extend our discussion. For that reason, we're going to go a bit more high level for the final portions of our analysis.

The Stanford men have received a fair share of criticism from The Stride Report in the past -- and I don't necessarily regret it. However, the Cardinal ran exceptionally well throughout most of last fall. Yes, their 12th place showing at the national meet is the perfect example of why we have trust issues with this Palo Alto-based group, but their overall structure as a team for 2025 looks promising.

Cole Sprout and Thomas Boyden are both gone, but Sprout was the only one who was a scorer at last year's national meet. Sure, Lex Young struggled with consistency last fall, but it was clear with his 27:48 (10k) PR that he has reached a new tier of fitness.

With so many still-rising youngsters and a really strong foundation of names, I actually think there is potential for the Cardinal to be just as good as they were last year. Of course, the bigger argument will be whether or not our writers agree when it comes to our preseason rankings.

What will the North Carolina men look like this year? Colton Sands should be a low-stick, Tomer Tarragano should hold similar value and Chasen Hunt has low-stick potential with the greater likelihood of being a high-impact middle-lineup scorer. But what about the rest of this group? Who will step up? Is Will Coogan returning? After years of elite recruiting, which of these developmental names will pop?

This next team doesn't need much discussion, but...Wisconsin is gonna be a top-10 team this fall. I don't know how, but it's gonna happen. At least, I think it will.

Arkansas is a fascinating. They had TONS of overwhelming and elite firepower on their podium team from last fall. But Kirami Yego, Patrick Kiprop and Yaseen Abdalla are all gone. The same can be said for Reuben Reina. Sure, Ben Shearer can still be a low-stick and Timothy Chesondin is better than some realize. But what is this traditional long distance powerhouse going to do in 2025? Who will fill out the rest of their lineup? So far this offseason, they have been very, very quiet.

I have no idea what to think about Notre Dame. Between natural talent and depth, they should be one of the more dangerous teams in the NCAA each and every year. However, the Fighting Irish have developed a tendency as of late to run well in the regular season and then falter a bit in the postseason. And yes, I say that knowing that Notre Dame placed 10th at the NCAA XC Championships last fall.

On paper, the men of South Bend, Indiana can be a podium team. They have depth, they have firepower, they have experience, they have youth and they have TONS of pedigree. If they can put it all together for a full season, then they could take on (almost) all of the teams who we have already spoken about.

We wrap up with Alabama, a team that has some of the most fearsome firepower in the entire NCAA...if they can all run well on the same day.

The Crimson Tide may lose Victor Kiprop and Hillary Cheruiyot, but they still have Dismus Lokira and Dennis Kipruto, two All-American-caliber talents. They also have steeplechase standout Ezekiel Pitireng who could be a productive name on the grass if all goes right. But more importantly, Alabama will almost certainly add at least one more international standout to their cross country roster this fall in order to replace Kiprop.

In terms of raw aerobic strength, Alabama had one of the single-best cross country teams in the NCAA last fall. However, the Crimson Tide men continue to struggle on the national stage, showcasing classic symptoms of international phenoms often needing an adjust period to the national stage.