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PREDICTIONS & PREVIEWS: 2025 Nike Pre Classic (Collegians)
The NCAA season has ended, but that doesn't necessarily mean that competition has concluded for a handful of collegians. This Saturday, on July 5th, many of the best distance runners in the world will gather in Eugene, Oregon for one of the single-most prestigious track and field meets of the year.
I am, of course, talking about the Nike Pre Classic. And in 2025, the track and field world will be celebrating the 50th edition of this historically elite meet.
Below, we broke down all of the collegiate entries that you will find in the distance events for this Saturday, offering scouting reports for each. Below that, you can find our predictions (with times) for this holiday weekend showdown at Hayward Field.
Keep in mind that there are far more collegians and recent college graduates entered in the men's distance fields than there are in the women's events.
Let's dive into it, shall we?
NOTE: An asterisk (*) indicates that an athlete has expired their collegiate eligibility, has turned pro or is expected to turn pro in the near future.
Men's International Mile
Simeon Birnbaum (Oregon)
The Oregon standout has proven to be an aggressive front-runner who is unafraid of any and all competition that he is surrounded by. This field is, admittedly, the toughest that he has ever faced, but he's also one of the more naturally talented and dynamic names in this field. Birnbaum won't win, but it won't be a surprise if he finished in the top-half of this race.
Elliott Cook (Oregon)
We didn't see Elliott Cook compete this past spring and he had a very limited indoor track campaign. It's also unclear if he will be returning to the NCAA in 2026. Even so, the Oregon veteran was the 2024 NCAA Championship runner-up over 1500 meters and went on to run 3:33 (1500) at the Olympic Trials where he made it to the finals. Both of those meets took place on Cook's home track, Hayward Field. As long as he is healthy and firing on all cylinders, then he should be a strong name capable of battling for a top-five result.
Gary Martin (Virginia)
In terms of pure aerobic fitness and talent, Gary Martin is one of the single-most talented names in this field. He did, after all, run 3:48 in the mile during the winter months and later clocked a time of 3:33 for 1500 meters on the outdoor oval. The Virginia phenom was definitively better on the indoor oval than he was this past spring, but Saturday's race should play more favorably into the fitness-based test that is the Nike Pre Classic.
Aidan McCarthy (Cal Poly)
You could argue that Aidan McCarthy has the best pure leg speed in this field given his 1:45 (800) PR and his multiple All-American honors over that distance. Even so, his mile and 1500-meter success should not be overlooked after running 3:52 (mile) and 3:36 (1500) earlier this year. There is actually an argument that McCarthy is better at the mile distance and that could be showcased this weekend if he nears a 3:51 mark or even the 3:50 barrier.
Wes Porter (Virginia)*
On TFRRS, Wes Porter isn't quite as accomplished as a few of the other collegians or recently-graduated-collegians in this field. Even so, this is someone who has thrived while racing unattached, scoring a 3:35 PR over 1500 meters not once, but twice in his career! With tons of experience in fields similar to what he'll see on Saturday, Porter is an athlete with a seemingly high floor who will be challenging to shake.
Adam Spencer (Wisconsin)*
Let's not forget that Adam Spencer once clocked a head-turning time of 3:31 for 1500 meters while overseas in the summer of 2023. And while the now-former Wisconsin star didn't have the greatest end to his collegiate career, he did seem to be trending in the right direction this past spring (as far as his fitness is concerned). If that momentum can be translated to this stage, then Spencer could realistically run as fast as 3:50 and maybe even 3:49. That, however, may require a calculated risk where he puts himself in a position to chase the leaders.
Owen Powell (Washington Commit)
Owen Powell, who has showcased tons of dynamism at the prep level, holds an outstanding 3:56 mile PR from the winter months and a 3:36 PR for 1500 meters from the Portland Track Festival. Admittedly, the high school phenom is still incredibly young, inexperienced in fields like this and at a clear disadvantage as far as proven fitness is concerned. The simple goal for this Washington commit should be to follow the field and get across the line as fast as possible. If he runs his own race, then Powell could realistically post a mile PR as fast as 3:52 or 3:53 on Saturday.
Ethan Strand (North Carolina)*
Arguably the most complete and talented collegian (or recent collegian) in this field, there is a world where Ethan Strand wins this race. The North Carolina phenom has run 3:48 in the mile and 3:33 for 1500 meters. However, the more important caveat to mention is that Strand can run ultra-fast times while still employing great finishing kicks no matter the race scenario. It wouldn't surprise us if he ran 3:48 again and in a best case scenario, a 3:47 mile PR isn't out of the question, either.
Men's 10,000 Meters
Ishmael Kipkurui (New Mexico)
This Lobo rookie holds an immense and unreal level of talent, but it doesn't feel likely that he'll be a contender to win this race. That said, this New Mexico megastar did take down an ultra-loaded field at Sound Running's The TEN back in late March en route to a collegiate 10k record of 26:50. In a race that promises to be insanely fast from the gun, it wouldn't totally shock us if Kipkurui followed an aggressive pace and ran in the mid-26:40s.
Women's 3000-Meter Steeplechase
Lexy Halladay-Lowry (BYU)*
After running a jaw-dropping 3000-meter steeplechase time of 9:08 at the NCAA Outdoor Championships, Lexy Halladay-Lowry will aim to capitalize on that momentum in a far deeper field this Saturday. The now-former BYU superstar is sitting well under the world standard in this event and is likely aiming to gain more experience against the world's most elite stars before she attends the USA Championships and, assuming she qualifies, the World Championships.
FINAL PREDICTIONS
*Predictions only include current or recently graduated/departed collegians
Men's International Mile
Ethan Strand (North Carolina) -- 3:48
Adam Spencer (Wisconsin) -- 3:50
Gary Martin (Virginia) -- 3:50
Elliott Cook (Oregon) -- 3:51
Simeon Birnbaum (Oregon) -- 3:52
Aidan McCarthy (Cal Poly) -- 3:53
Wes Porter (Virginia) -- 3:54
Owen Powell (Washington) -- 3:56
Men's 10,000 Meters
Ishmael Kipkurui (New Mexico) -- 26:44
Women's 3000-Meter Steeplechase
Lexy Halladay-Lowry (BYU) -- 9:10
