.png)
TSR's 2025 D1 "Way Too Early" NCAA XC Preview (Women's Teams)
Ah, yes.
Cross country.
My favorite time of the year.
Unlike track and field, there is far more volatility (for distance running) during the fall months. Cross country allows us to focus on both the individual and team battles. And for the latter, with seven different runners battling for five scoring spots on each team, the variable nature of each lineup leaves us with far more subjective analysis to offer.
With so much to talk about, I wanted to begin putting pen to paper (or fingers to keyboard) and provide an early look at what the 2025 cross country season may look like. Yes, it's still early and yes, we're still reaching out to coaches on who is and isn't returning (and being added). Even so, I thought it would be a good idea to dip our toes into the water and chat about a few items for later this fall.
After speaking about the Division One men yesterday, we'll continue our conversation about the Division One women today.
NOTE: Any analysis offered in this article is not meant to be an indication of where an athlete or team will or will not be ranked in our preseason lists. Eligibility is based off of TFRRS and any feedback that coaches have been able to offer us. We also could not get to ALL nationally relevant teams in this article. Just because a team was not mentioned does not necessarily mean that they are less relevant than other teams which were highlighted.
Welcome back, ladies and gentlemen, to everyone's favorite game, "Who the hell is going to win the national team title this fall?" Thankfully, that answer is (seemingly) a bit easier to answer for the women than it was for the men.
The BYU women were phenomenal last fall, peaking perfectly and showcasing quality depth that only got better as the season went on. The challenge, however, is that they are losing their Lexy Halladay-Lowry, their home run hitting low-stick who placed 14th at the national meet last fall.
The Cougars had a tremendous collection of All-Americans and All-American-caliber women last fall. However, Halladay-Lowry was the only top-30 national meet finisher they had. Not only that, but the Cougars have also lost Carlee Hansen, a veteran who twice cracked the top-70 of the national meet during her time in Provo. She was the unsung hero for BYU last fall.
There is, however, good news: Multi-time All-American and proven low-stick, Jenna Hutchins, should be returning this fall. She was injured last year and didn't compete on the national stage. Her return effectively fills a gaudy hole left behind by Halladay-Lowry, meaning that the Cougars could remain as the national title favorites in 2025.
It wouldn't be surprising if Hutchins, Riley Chamberlain and Carmen Alder were each All-Americans in 2025. However, it would be a slight surprise if any of those three women were the best runner on this team. That, of course, is because Coach Diljeet Taylor signed arguably the greatest high school distance runner in American history.
Enter Jane Hedengren.
The two-time NXN champion, who has run Earth-shattering times of 9:17 (two-miles) and 14:57 (5k), is one of the single-most talented rookies to ever enter the NCAA. Her ability to compete with some of the elite collegians as a high school senior suggests that she could be a top-10 name in the country this fall, at a bare minimum.
And in a best-case scenario, Hedengren is battling for a top-three individual finish at the cross country national meet.
On paper, it's going to be incredibly difficult to defeat BYU this fall as long as the Cougars are able to remain healthy. And even if one key name isn't at 100% by the time November rolls around, then the Cougars should still be ok. The development of Nelah Roberts has been incredibly promising and Taylor Lovell has made encouraging strides of her own over the last year. Add in names like Taylor Rohatinsky and Carmen Riano, and you get a complete top-seven that is incredibly balanced and void of any noticeable flaws.
But let's chat about the other top-tier programs -- the teams that could potentially threaten BYU's goal of repeating for a national team title.
Truthfully, the other three podium teams from last fall -- West Virginia, Providence and Northern Arizona -- aren't in great positions to return to the podium in 2025.
The Providence women lost a massive bulk of their low-sticks via Shannon Flockhart, Kimberley May and Alex Millard. That is a devastating amount of lost scoring. And truthfully, it would be a shock if this team even came close to being a top-10 squad later this fall.
Similarly, the NAU women were crushed with departures of their own. TFRRS suggests that All-American veterans Elise Stearns and Ali Upshaw are both out of eligibility. The same can be said for Maggi Congdon who just turned pro with Nike. She was a crucial middle-lineup scorer who offered tons of value as far as scoring stability is concerned.
West Virginia, meanwhile, loses Ceili McCabe, Sarah Tait and Madison Trippett. Those three women placed 6th, 34th and 89th at last year's NCAA XC Championships. Not only is that a huge loss in terms of scoring value, but the Mountaineers are also going to be grasping at any semblance of depth that they can find -- and right now, it's not much.
Yes, the WVU women were the national meet runner-up team last fall. But if just ONE woman had a bad day, then they would have plummeted down the team standings. And now, they'll be looking to essentially rebuild their top-five after having three critical names depart.
* * *
I can't help but look at the Oregon women as (potentially) the biggest threat to the BYU women later this fall.
TFRRS suggests that Silan Ayyildiz and Maddy Elmore are both out of eligibility. However, it may be possible (very heavy emphasis on "may") that both of those women have extra eligibility for this fall. Ayyildiz has only contested three seasons of cross country since joining the NCAA and Elmore only competed during one regular season meet in the fall of 2021.
If both of those women end up returning in 2025, then I would not argue with anyone who said that the Ducks are favored for NCAA gold over BYU.
Of course, my reason for saying that isn't just because Ayyildiz and Elmore MIGHT return later this fall. I say that because those two women could POTENTIALLY be paired with Diana Cherotich and Juliet Cherubet! And if that happens, then Oregon will boast, without question, the best top-four of any team in the country.
Cherotich has run personal bests of 15:01 (5k) and 31:45 (10k), the latter of which was produced this past spring. The Kenyan superstar recorded a DNF at the NCAA Outdoor Championships last month, but has otherwise showcased tremendous potential to be a top-half All-American later this fall (at the very least).
Cherubet, meanwhile, is a transfer from Texas Tech who has evolved into one of the single-most valuable prospects in the NCAA. The Red Raider-turned-Duck placed 11th at the NCAA XC Championships last fall after placing 18th at the same meet the year before!
The potential firepower that Cherotich, Cherubet, Ayyildiz and Elmore could produce isn't just scary for opposing teams -- it's nightmare fuel. Not only that, but All-American Anika Thompson is set to return and the same could be said for veteran standout Mia Barnett. If all six of those women toe the line healthy in November, then I wouldn't be so confident in choosing BYU to win NCAA gold.
That, of course, assumes that Ayyildiz and Elmore will even be racing.
And then there is New Mexico, the third and final team that I believe could realistically contend for the national title this fall. Although, admittedly, I'm not sure I would put them in the same tier as BYU and Oregon...yet.
Pamela Kosgei is as elite as they come -- we all know how incredible she is. However, the real question will be, how effective can Marion Jepngetich be as low-stick star this fall? Her World Athletics profile indicates that the New Mexico star has run 8:52 (3k), 15:03 (5k roads) and 15:22 (5k). She is almost certainly going to be an All-American this fall, but where within that top-40 will she be?
Let's also not forget about Mercy Kirarei. She was quietly excellent last year, acting as a major reason why the Lobos had so much success as a team. Kirarei was a 35th place All-American in Madison, Wisconsin last year, giving her team another low-stick that we knew she could be going into the season.
Between Kosgei, Jepngetich and Kirarei, the New Mexico women look talented enough to counter most of the top scoring trios that other teams around the NCAA will field. But what about the rest of this lineup? What should we expect?
Nicola Jansen may be one of the single-biggest "x-factors" in the NCAA this fall. Remember, this former low-stick was a 36th place All-American during the 2023 cross country season, a result which largely mimicked her effectiveness as a true ace overall that season.
Since then, Jansen has run new personal bests on the track, although she may be someone who is best evaluated on the grass rather than the oval. And given that she didn't compete last fall, the Lobo veteran feels more like a wild card than a known quantity going into the fall months.
Alice Seguin is another key x-factor for New Mexico. She initially joined the program as a metric miler, but ran a shockingly great 5k time of 15:33 this past spring. Is that kind of performance translatable to the grass? If so, what does that mean for her ability to be a low-stick this fall?
With a large handful of underrated depth pieces scattered throughout the rest of the Lobos' roster, you can begin to see a world where this is a top-three team in the country come October and November.
* * *
I think NC State is in a really exciting, spot.
The Wolfpack women were in a bit of a rebuild last fall. Of course, most coaches and programs would kill to place 8th at the NCAA XC Championships during a "rebuilding" year. But then again, most programs aren't able to establish a dynasty by winning three-straight NCAA cross country team titles.
The good news for Coach Laurie Henes is that a heavy portion of last year's team returns in 2025. Grace Hartman and Hannah Gapes were unbelievably impressive last fall, emerging as the best 1-2 punch in the country. Together, those two women gave their team a fearsome identity and some room for error.
Of course, one of the bigger developments was seeing Angelina Napoleon running an unreal steeplechase time of 9:10 at the Diamond League last month! That is a phenomenal mark. And while I have traditionally warned our readers about being invested in steeplechasers competing on the grass, it's hard to imagine Napoleon not being a cross country All-American this fall...right?
But the reason why I love this NC State squad isn't because of the immense firepower that they boast at the front of their lineup. Instead, it's the still-growing depth and bolstered scoring support that should stabilize this team in a major way.
Ellie Shea placed 29th at the ACC XC Championships last fall as a freshman. Bethany Michalak ran 15:43 for 5000 meters this past spring. Kate Putman made encouraging strides of her own, running 15:45 for 5000 meters on the outdoor oval. Let's also not forget about Brooke Rauber who ran 15:50 for 5000 meters this past spring and finished (a truthfully stunning) 50th place at the NCAA XC Championships last fall.
Not only that, but NC State also added Kaylie Armitage, a graduate transfer from Furman. She was 24th at the Nuttycombe Invite last fall, placed 67th at Pre-Nationals a few weeks after that and, the year before that, placed 97th at the NCAA XC Championships!
The Wolfpack also brought in a high-upside transfer in Fleur Templier from Portland. The fast-rising distance ace has run 8:56 for 3000 meters and took 11th place at the West Regional XC Championships last fall. She brings a high ceiling and great scoring value to Raleigh, North Carolina.
On paper, the overall depth and talent on this distance roster FAR exceeds what this team had last year. In 2024, depth was a glaring weak point which held NC State back from their true potential. But in 2025, it's the Wolfpack's supporting cast that may be their greatest asset.
As we move down the list of top teams from last fall, I'll be honest, I'm not really sure what to think about the Stanford women.
On one hand, they placed 6th at the NCAA XC Championships last year. But on the other hand, that was a better-than-expected performance for the Cardinal. Plus, Bunnage has continued to struggle with availability in 2025 and Stanford just lost two key veterans in Zofia Dudek and Audrey DaDamio.
Thankfully, Sophia Kennedy is a true low-stick ace and the addition of Mena Scatchard should help Stanford quite a bit on the grass. She'll at least offer backend scoring stability for a team that has a few unknowns still lingering regarding for this fall.
But what are the next steps that this team can take? How does this team continue to get better? Will they get better? Who else will evolve into a low-stick this fall? What is Amy Bunnage's status for later this year? Will she follow the same plan as last year where she didn't begin racing until the West Regional XC Championships? To put it simply, the Cardinal have more questions surrounding them than more people realize -- and I'm struggling to provide answers.
* * *
The Alabama women are going to be good this year...right?
The Crimson Tide return five of their top-seven runners from last year's national meet lineup. That same lineup ended up placing 10th at the NCAA XC Championships. And of their two departees, only one of them was a scorer in Madison, Wisconsin last fall.
The loss of Addison Dorenkamp, who transferred to Colorado this past offseason, is admittedly a tough loss. The Alabama women lacked depth last year and going into 2025, they'll have even less.
Even so, Doris Lemngole is still going to be an all-time megastar, Brenda Tuwei looked ridiculously strong throughout last fall and Pheline Cheruto seemingly holds tons of potential. Together that trio looks scary-good, and there is almost certainly room for Coach Nick Stenuf and the Alabama staff to add more scoring weapons to their squad for later this fall.
Thankfully, Lilly Walters ran 10:06 in the 3000-meter steeplechase this past spring. She doesn't need to be nearly as impactful as Dorenkamp was in order to be effective. If she can close out Alabama's scoring reasonably quickly, then that will be a welcomed development for the women of Tuscaloosa.
Regardless, the Crimson Tide still need one more high-impact addition. Doing so will give them a complete top-five and an outside shot at the podium if, a) everyone runs well at the national meet, and b) the rest of this lineup develops to their full potential.
We mentioned Colorado earlier when talking about Dorenkamp and I think now is a good time to bring them up for a more in-depth discussion.
Coach Sean Carlson is now in his first full summer with the Buffaloes, thus allowing him to craft this women's roster in his image. And so far, the efforts he has made in the transfer portal have been outstanding.
Adding Hannah Prosser, a top name from Boston University, during the winter months was a far bigger deal than some realize. Remember, she placed 5th at the 2023 Northeast Regional XC Championships and has gone on to run 32:49 for 10,000 meters in a Buffalo singlet.
Colorado also added Ashley Jones, a reliable postseason low-stick with All-American potential. They also signed the aforementioned Addison Dorenkamp, who placed 86th at the NCAA XC Championships last fall with Alabama despite being a freshman at the time. Did I mention Juliette Forstrom yet? She showed promise during her time with Portland, running 33:34 for 10,000 meters this past spring and placing 27th at the West Regional XC Championships last fall.
The Lady Buffs also return Jessie Secor, an underrated low-stick-caliber name who ran 8:50 (3k) and 15:30 (5k) earlier this year, and Abbey Nechanicky, who placed 17th at the BIG 12 XC Championships last fall.
Together, those six women create a complete, balanced, high-upside and experienced group. On paper, they should have minimal gaps and they have a handful of reliable women who effectively give this team a high floor. Sure, they may not be the flashiest squad in the NCAA this fall, but they don't need to be.
Plus, what were to happen if Natalie Cook were to suddenly be healthy and at 80% of her prior peak form? Even in that scenario, Colorado is gaining a valuable and impactful scorer. Of course, we haven't seen Cook race at a productive level for years now...
* * *
Just like we mentioned with the men, there are a large handful of teams that we have not yet spoken about. That, however, is not necessarily a bad (or good) thing. We only have so much space to extend our discussion. For that reason, we're going to go a bit more high level for the final portions of our analysis.
Georgetown is going to be a in a tough spot trying to replace both Chloe Scrimgeour and Lucy Jenks. The good news is that Melissa Riggins is still a low-stick-caliber name and the depth of this squad was sneaky-good last year (and a lot of that supporting cast returns).
I have no idea what Washington and Notre Dame are going to do. The former had tons of weapons last year, but a number of them graduate and their consistency in the postseason wasn't ideal. The latter, meanwhile, loses multiple low-stick veteran standouts, but they also have one of the brightest young cores in the NCAA as far as cross country is concerned.
Florida is going to be dangerous. I don't exactly know how dangerous, but the combination of Hilda Olemomoi, Judy Chepkoech, Tia Wilson and Bethan Morley is VERY formidable. This team needs way more depth, but that's been a clear challenge for the Gators since Coach Will Palmer took over and it hasn't necessarily come back to haunt them in any major way.
If Billah Jepkurui returns for Oklahoma State this fall and is in top form, then the Cowgirls are going to be incredibly scary. Now, admittedly, we've had radio silence on Jepkurui since the end of the 2024 outdoor track season. Expecting her to return in the fall of 2025 and look like her old self feels like it would be asking too much.
Even so, the return of numerous veterans and multiple high-impact international additions makes Oklahoma State a sneaky-good team. They held their own last fall with a limited lineup, but they'll be significantly better in 2025.
So, uh...what is Arkansas going to do? They do return Paityn Noe and Sydney Thorvaldson, which is huge, but they lose Mia Cochran, Anastacia Gonzales and Tiana LoStracco. Sure, there are a few developmental names scattered on this roster, but the Razorbacks DESPERATELY needed depth last fall -- and it's not going to get any better in 2025, at least not organically.
Arkansas only got by last fall because Noe, Cochran and Thorvaldson essentially carried their scoring. But with one less low-stick in 2025 and even lesser depth, I'm not entirely sure how the Razorbacks are going to make this season work.
