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TSR's 2024 Preseason D3 XC Top 10 Team Rankings (Women): #5 Carleton Knights
- Gavin Struve
- Sep 9, 2024
- 6 min read
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On certain occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
Heading into the 2023 cross country season, it appeared that the Carleton women would not only have to reload, but also reset their expectations to an extent. After all, they were losing low-stick superstar Clara Mayfield (who transferred to the University of Utah) from a podium team.
Yet, when all the cards were laid bare, it was the Carleton women who emerged from a wild 2023 NCAA XC Championships as the national title winners.
It's hard to dislike the talent that the Knights have this year, as they return a decent amount of last year's core with three scorers and four varsity runners. That being said, a third consecutive podium finish will be quite the challenge given that they lose two critical front-end scorers.
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In their first 6k race of last fall, the Carleton women packed the front of a solid Running of the Cows field. The Knights met their first true test with an optimal blend of firepower, middle-lineup scoring and backend support, flexing their enviable scoring structure.
Hannah Preisser (4th) was followed by Phoebe Ward (6th), Sophie McManus (8th), Aliya Larsen (11th) and Katie Hirsche (14th) in the top-five. That allowed them to beat a strong UW-La Crosse squad who put their low-stick one spot ahead of Carleton's and had all five scorers in the top-16.
Carleton then stayed in the Midwest for another competitive meet: the Blugold Invitational. This time around, Preisser, McManus and Ward put forth an impressive front-running display by finishing 2-3-4 in that order. Larsen (12th) and Helen Cross (19th) closed out the scoring fast enough for their team to post a convincing victory over solid St. Olaf and UW-Eau Claire squads.
They ramped up in competition at the SUNY Geneseo Mike Woods Invitational, where Ward (5th), Preisser (6th) and McManus (7th) again ran as a tight pack toward the front of the field. Cross appeared to be gaining steam nearing the postseason, as she placed 10th, and Larsen (22nd) gave the Knights a solid fifth runner.
That collective effort gave Carleton a win over fellow top-10 teams SUNY Geneseo and Lynchburg and made this Minnesota-based crew look more and more like an outside title contender.
At the MIAC XC Championships, Cross took a turn as this team's third runner in the top-five behind Preisser and Ward, while McManus (7th) was close behind. Larsen and Mary Blanchard made for six Carleton runners in the top-10, which was enough to win the conference title with less than half as many points as runner-up St. Olaf.
The Knights predictably dominated the North Regional XC Championships. Preisser, Ward, Larsen and McManus all fit into the top-10 as Cross took a week off and Blanchard served as the fifth scorer.
Carleton entered the 2023 NCAA XC Championships without having lost a team race over 6000 meters all season. They weren't the national title favorite ahead of the cross country national meet, but they found themselves in the mix of a tight podium race with just a seven-point difference between the 1st and 4th-place squads.
Preisser and Ward finished in the top-20 to offer a two-headed low-stick scoring punch. They were this team's only All-Americans, but Cross (41st) and Larsen (46th) were pretty close to earning those honors as well.
The latter saved what was by far the best race of her season for when it mattered most. With McManus (62nd) serving as the best fifth scorer in the field, the Knights had enough to barely win the national team title by three points.
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Title teams are almost guaranteed to suffer some heavy losses, given that they're usually senior-laden and stocked with accomplished runners.
Carleton was not spared some casualties. Phoebe Ward and Helen Cross both depart after serving as incredibly valuable low-sticks throughout last season for what ended up being the best team in the country. Mary Blanchard's departure doesn't help to patch those holes.
Blanchard placed in the top-115 at the past two cross country national meets and could have theoretically moved into the projected scoring lineup quite smoothly. Alas, this team will have to make do with "only" three top-65 finishers from the 2023 NCAA XC Championships.
Hannah Preisser was Carleton's reliable focal star last fall, stepping up capably in Mayfield's absence. She has finished top-15 at the past two cross country national meets and enters this campaign at TSR #7 in our preseason individual rankings for good reason.
Two other All-American candidates (and perhaps All-American favorites depending on who you ask) will join her in the top-half of this varsity lineup.
Aliya Larsen came through in a major way last fall during her first NCAA Championships appearance and went on to run PRs from 1500 meters up to the 5k earlier this year.
We don't have a large sample size of her competing on the national stage, so we can't pencil her in as a top-40 or even top-50 runner (though she's a "Just Missed" name in our preseason individual rankings) just yet, but it's reassuring that Larsen fared so well in her first national meet showing.
It's Sophie McManus, however, who should be the Knights' second scorer. She was one of their three best runners for much of last fall and was probably an All-American favorite heading into the national meet. She didn't achieve that status, but a second-straight top-65 finish on the national stage is nothing to scoff at.
McManus ran a bevy of PRs earlier this year and seems to have all the requisite momentum to soar into the top-40 in a few months' time.
If Carleton wants to remain on the podium, they likely need McManus to finish closer to Preisser, especially given that this team has some uncertainty in the back half of its varsity group.
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After those three women is where the lineup gets a bit more murky for Carleton. Libby Rowland is the last returner from the cross country national meet roster, as she was the Knights' seventh runner.
It's also worth noting that Rowland has three NCAA XC Championships appearances under her belt and was a scorer (finishing 68th) on the Knights' 2022 podium team.
If Rowland can match her 2022 national meet performance (or at least place in the top-100) then this team will be a podium favorite. But she has twice finished outside of the top-220 in that setting. Which direction is she headed in her senior season?
We don't have the answer to that question, but at least we know that she has the ability to be a national-caliber scorer. That's not something that we can confidently say about most backend contributors from last fall.
Nora Daley had a strong freshman season last year and is thus a natural candidate to fill the fifth scorer role. She was the Knights' eighth runner (ahead of Cross) at the Running of the Cows, the Blugold Invitational and the MIAC XC Championships, finishing 21st at the latter.
Daley was then Carleton's seventh runner at the North regional meet before sitting out the national meet (because Cross didn't race at the regional meet).
Rising senior Katie Hirsche was excellent in the opener, serving as a scorer, before finishing as the Knights' ninth runner (and sixth-best returner) at the MIAC XC Championships. We expect her to slot into the varsity lineup as well.
The proven depth is pretty limited beyond that, so one of four first-year athletes may need to step up to round out the varsity group. Although, they're all more developmental additions.
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It's possible that we're underselling this team again (although we were correct in projecting them to improve last season, just not enough, by placing them at preseason TSR #3).
The Knights have a low-stick star who rivals almost anyone in the country, two more All-American candidates and another battle-tested varsity veteran. After that is where the uncertainty begins
Can Coach Donna Ricks work enough developmental magic in the backend of this lineup to keep the Knights on the podium? Can we just assume that McManus and Larsen will join Preisser as All-American-caliber runners and that Rowland is a reliable scorer?
The defending national champions enter this season fielding more questions than they may like, but we expect them to come up with more answers than almost everyone else.
