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TSR's 2023 Preseason D3 XC Top 10 Rankings (Women): #3 Carleton Knights
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Sep 12, 2023
- 7 min read
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On rare occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
Over the last few years, the Carleton women have slowly emerged as one of the best distance programs in Division Three. While they have yet to reach the title-contention status of their powerhouse counterparts, the Knights have firmly entrenched themselves as a nationally competitive squad that has refused to falter from top ranks while racing on the grass.
Coach Donna Ricks has put together a masterclass on how to build a top-tier cross country roster. Nowadays, the Knights aren't just matching the success that they found in the 1980s (and early 1990s), but they're actually surpassing those benchmarks.
Now, as we enter the fall of 2023, the Carleton women have the chance to do something incredibly special. This year, they'll come into the fall months favored to land on the podium (yet again). But they could also enter the discussion of possible national title contenders once we reach the month of November...
* * *
After breezing through an early-season opener, the Carleton women would truly kick-off their 2022 cross country campaign by battling the Oles at the St. Olaf Invite.
However, the Knights simply proved to be the better team...but not by much. The combination of Clara Mayfield, Hannah Preisser and Sophie McManus went 1-2-3, respectively, providing outstanding firepower which is what ultimately helped Carleton win the meet.
Even so, the final two scorers in the Knights' lineup, Phoebe Ward (18th) and Mary Blanchard (21st), did leave a fairly noticeable gap for the Carleton women to address. The Knights still won by three points, but St. Olaf's overwhelming depth nearly pulled through.
Sure enough, Carleton's challenges with lineup gaps proved to be an increasingly bigger issue at the Blugold Invite. There, the Knights would face St. Olaf once more as well as a sneaky-good UW-Eau Claire squad. But this time, the final result was different.
Mayfield secured gold as expected while Ward had a surprisingly great race to place 5th overall. Aliya Larsen also had a solid race by finishing 12th and Libby Rowland was a very nice development in 14th place. It wasn't perfect, but it was a solid quartet of scorers.
But with the final Carleton scorer fading back to 39th place overall, the St. Olaf women were able to comfortably gap their conference rival by 24 points. There was, however, a catch: Hannah Preisser was listed as a "DQ" in the final results.
And while we don't know why that was, we do know that if she delivered on her full potential, then you're looking at a scenario where the Knights barely get the win over the Oles. In other words, there were reasons to remain optimistic. After all, Ward stepped into a borderline low-stick role and the team's top-four still looked solid.
The Rowan Interregional Border Battle would be the next stop on Carleton's schedule. It was a meet that is traditionally known to be one of the more competitive regular season meets for Division Three teams each and every year.
That, however, didn't seem to faze the Knights.
Mayfield earned gold once more while Preisser returned to her low-stick ways, placing 4th overall. However, this time, it was Sophie McManus stepping up to place 5th! That was an outstanding performance that gave this team yet another low-stick to rally around.
With three women in the top-five, this team looked scary-good. And by having Ward (13th) and Rowland (15th) put together strong efforts of their own, it looked like Carleton was going to secure one of the biggest wins of the year.
That, unfortunately, didn't happen. The Knights settled for a runner-up spot by a mere point. They fell to the SUNY Geneseo who, at the time, were viewed as a legitimate national title contenders. Regardless, this was a still a monumentally successful day for Carleton.
From there, the Knights breezed through the MIAC XC Championships, dusting a St. Olaf team that had originally given them some trouble earlier in the season. With four women in the top-five and six in the top-15, the Oles simply couldn't match Carleton.
It was more of the same at the North Regional XC Championships as the Knights looked like a different team than how they first entered the fall months. Was this team peaking for the postseason? And if so, could they realistically get on the podium?
The answer turned out to be a resounding, "Yes!"
On the national stage, the Carleton women continued to ride their postseason momentum. Mayfield (3rd) proved to be an extremely valuable low-stick scorer yet again while Preisser was fantastic in her own right, placing 15th. The only other teams to have two women in the top-15 were Johns Hopkins and SUNY Geneseo.
And the depth that was an issue earlier in the season? Well, it proved to be a non-factor.
The combination of McManus, Rowland, Ward, Cross and Blanchard went 55-68-72-89-92, respectively. No other women's team had all seven of their runners finish inside the top-100. That turned out to be good enough for a program-best 4th place podium finish. They sat just one point behind the Wartburg women who placed 3rd.
* * *
If you're a fan of Carleton cross country, then I have good news for you and I have bad news.
The good news is that as we enter the 2023 cross country season, the Knights will be returning six of their top-seven women from last fall! For a team that flexed tremendous depth on the national stage, that is a huge development.
The bad news? Clara Mayfield, the woman who made this team so dangerous, is gone. The veteran ace has since joined the Utah Utes as a graduate transfer.
It's hard to express how big of a loss Mayfield is. She was the engine that made this team successful in small fields where top distance squads needed a true low-stick to stay competitive. If you remove her from the 2022 national meet results (and move everyone else up a spot), then you'll find that Carleton drops from 4th place to 8th place in the standings.
But here's the thing: Almost every other top-tier distance program from last fall also loses multiple low-stick stars of their own.
SUNY Geneseo is without McCarey and Ardner. The U. of Chicago Maroons lost four women from their 2022 lineup. The Washington U. women experienced so many key departures that we listed them at TSR #9 in our preseason rankings. Even the MIT women lose an All-American and a supporting scorer.
So yes, Carleton may lose one of the best runners in the country, but their scoring loss isn't expected to be nearly as heavy as what other powerhouse programs have experienced.
* * *
Hannah Preisser is going to be the start of this team in 2023. She was fantastic as a consistent low-stick throughout last fall and she earned a top-15 finish on the national stage. In fact, we're so high on her for this fall that we even have her listed at TSR #4 in our preseason individual rankings.
Of course, even if she doesn't become a top-five runner in Division Three this fall, then that's fine, too. As long as she reproduces her firepower from the 2022 cross country season, then the Carleton women should be plenty happy with that.
However, it's the rest of this team where the scoring structure of this lineup gets interesting.
Everyone else on this team who is returning didn't emerge as All-Americans last fall. However, there were multiples instances where Sophie McManus and Phoebe Ward looked like legitimate All-American-caliber low-sticks.
McManus, for instance, placed 3rd at the St. Olaf Invite and 5th at the Rowan Interregional Border Battle. Meanwhile, Ward placed 5th at the Bluegold Invite as well as 13th at Rowan. They also earned top-80 finishes on the national stage.
McManus and Ward are the two keys towards this team returning to the podium. These women have the potential to be fringe All-Americans in 2023, but their seasonal consistency has to improve. That, and their best race (or one of their best races) needs to come on the national stage.
If that happens, and we think it very well could, then you're looking at a team that is already primed to be even better than last year's squad.
Libby Rowland is a very interesting talent, although she may be one of the most reliable distance runners on this entire roster. She sat at the backend of Carleton's lineup last fall and was usually pretty good about keeping excessive scoring at a minimum (at least in her role).
Throughout the season, Rowland was consistently cracking the top-15 in basically all of her meets before she placed 66th on the national stage.
If Rowland turns out to be even better this fall than she was last year, then that's a major win. But at the very least, she is likely going to be the one who offers incredibly valuable scoring stability. We see only upside with her.
Other women like Helen Cross and Mary Blanchard are a bit more challenging to gauge. Cross was largely not a factor for this team until the postseason and then surprised many of us with an 89th place finish on the national stage. It's a similar story for Blanchard who had the best race of her career at the NCAA XC Championships, placing 92nd.
The performances that we saw from these two women in their season finale were, admittedly, outlier results compared to what they had done earlier that fall. Trying to set expectations for this backend duo is a bit tricky, although both women made substantial improvements on the oval earlier this year.
Blanchard ran 2:11 (800) and 4:57 (mile), qualifying for both the indoor and outdoor national meets earlier this year. Separately, Cross ran times of 9:54 (3k) and 17:03 (3k) on a flat-track during the winter months. She also qualified for the indoor national meet.
Be sure to also keep an eye on Katie Hirsche. She's a transfer from Haverford who boasts a respectable resume. She has run 17:50 (5k) and 36:33 (10k).
* * *
It's hard to see this team not being a top-five cross country squad in Division Three this year. Their loss of a star low-stick is brutal, but having everyone else return is a luxury that almost no other team can boast.
Carleton still has a true ace, two middle-lineup runners who could be fringe low-sticks and a highly stable backend which seems to hold a ton of upside based on their efforts from the winter and spring months.
Yes, consistency and further progression will need to be made this fall in order for Carleton to validate this preseason ranking. But frankly you could say that about pretty much any women's team in Division Three this fall.
And if everything breaks their way, then...could the Knights actually contend for NCAA gold?
