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TSR's 2024 Preseason D3 XC Top 10 Team Rankings (Women): #1 NYU Violets
- Gavin Struve
- Sep 13, 2024
- 8 min read
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On certain occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
NYU came painfully close to a shocking NCAA title last fall. The Violets finished as the national runner-up in 2023 just one year after they finished outside of the top-25 at the NCAA XC Championships! A year before that, in 2021, NYU didn't have a single woman racing at the cross country national meet.
Will the Violets continue their ascendance, or might they fall back to Earth a bit?
Despite a relatively small sample size (one season) of dominance, we think that they have the best blend of up-front firepower, middle-lineup stability and backend scoring support in Division Three this year.
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NYU first fielded their 2023 women's varsity contingent at the Manhattan Jasper Fall XC Invitational. Against a field with 10 mid-major Division One programs, the Violets more than held their own for a runner-up finish. That was our first sign that this team would be a problem for its Division Three peers.
Grace Richardson looked like the All-American star that she was in 2022, placing 3rd. And the Violets' full scoring lineup finished in the top-20. They placed a full varsity seven in the top-25 of a field with nearly 200 women.
NYU faced an even larger Division One contingent at the Paul Short Run "Brown" Race. This time, they won going away (against 42 other teams)!
Richardson again placed 3rd, and rookie Morgan Uhlhorn was just one spot behind her. Kate Cochran (11th) gave the group a third low-stick presence, and Vivian Kane (16th) was strong as well. Freshman Olivia Jackson closing out the scoring in 35th place was enough to win the race by nearly 100 points.
You could have removed any of NYU's seven runners and they still would have won comfortably. That was an eyebrow-raising realization for many of us at The Stride Report as we began to further realize just how strong this team was.
Of course, the Violets' first true D3 test came at the Connecticut College Invitational. Against a talented Central College team (that went on to place 9th at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships), NYU again won by almost 100 points.
Richardson produced her best placement to that point, finishing runner-up behind eventual national champion Fiona Smith. Kane, Cochran and Uhlhorn joining her in the top-eight -- with fifth runner Janie Cooper finishing 15th -- was a statement.
If the rest of the nation's top teams weren't aware of NYU's podium candidacy by then, they certainly were after the UAA XC Championships. While a 12-point conference title doesn't necessarily look dominant, each of NYU's five scorers finished ahead of their U. of Chicago counterpart.
Richardson earned her first win of the season at just the right time, taking down superstar Evelyn Battleson-Gunkel by five seconds. Just as was the case at the prior meet, Uhlhorn, Kane and Cochran joined her in the top-10 and Cooper slipped into the top-15. Consequently, the Violets earned a convincing victory over a fellow podium team.
NYU finished a distant runner-up behind SUNY Geneseo at the Niagara Regional XC Championships, but it seemed clear that they did not put forth an all-out effort. Their top-four runners all finished within a second of each other and swept spots 6-7-8-9.
NYU went on to finish with two top-half All-Americans (Richardson (9th) and Uhlhorn (15th)) at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships and three total All-Americans (including Kane (37th)). Even so, they were in 3rd place through their first three scorers. Then, Cochran (47th) gave the Violets a far better fourth runner than the two teams ahead of them had, and Cooper finished a respectable 81st to round out the scoring lineup.
That was enough to best U. of Chicago and Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, both of whom received better placements from their first, second and third runners than the Violets did. However, Carleton (who had "only" two All-Americans), had the best backend scoring group in the nation and ultimately left NYU as the national meet runner-up.
A team that nobody thought was a national title contender finished just four points from winning NCAA gold. The surprising part was that it felt like none of NYU's scorers outperformed expectations in a significant way in their season finale. Everyone did their part in one of the more balanced lineups in the country.
The fact that they didn't necessarily have a perfect day, but one that fit the standard they set throughout the 2023 season, makes NYU's national meet runner-up effort seem replicable and improvement feel possible.
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Grace Richardson has exhausted her eligibility. She became the outward-facing star of this upstart power, finishing her NCAA career with back-to-back cross country All-American finishes and five total All-American honors in the 2023-24 academic year.
That's the woman who NYU would probably have most liked to have back for its quest to place one spot higher at the 2024 cross country national meet. Fortunately, Richardson's departure is where the roster turnover ends. And thankfully for the Violets, they have someone who we think can fill her lead scoring role.
It's mostly a coincidence that Morgan Uhlhorn enters this season ranked at TSR #9 in our preseason individual rankings (the same spot that Richardson finished at the 2023 cross country national meet). Like her team, she was steady throughout last fall.
Uhlhorn arguably had the most surprising national meet finish of any of NYU's scorers. Her season leading up to that point (including wins over Maddie Kelly and Allison Sibold) suggested that she could be a top-half All-American, but our surprise was more because we thought her youth may hold her back.
That worry proved unwarranted when she finished her season in 15th place on the national stage, and the poise she showed there is much of what alleviates our concern about Uhlhorn racing just once on the track in 2024.
If she's healthy (which we think she is after last seeing her produce a solid 5k effort in mid-April), we expect Uhlhorn to match or improve upon her finish from last fall's national meet. NYU will likely need her to do so in order to have the requisite front-end firepower to win a national title.
Vivian Kane mirrored her team's meteoric rise by becoming an All-American a year after not racing in NYU's varsity lineup at the 2022 cross country national meet. To be fair, though, that comparison doesn't tell the whole story, as she flashed star potential in 2022-23 as well.
Kane is another name who didn't race on the outdoor oval in 2024, but we don't doubt her raw talent on the track given that she holds a 16:56 (5k) PR. She's another name who if she's healthy (and we don't have reason to believe she's not) will be favored to improve upon what she produced in 2023.
Kate Cochran is someone who we see becoming a first-time All-American this season. She was incredibly steady throughout last fall, placing top-12 in all five meets leading up to the cross country national meet (where she was top-50). She then went on to compete in both the 5k and the 3k at the indoor national meet.
Cochran made her first NCAA Championships appearance last fall. She now has three national meet showings under her belt and should reap the benefits. And truthfully, we think she's better now than she was last fall. We very much see her as a third low-stick candidate for a team that is looking for exactly that.
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NYU has a three-pronged trident of options for their fourth and fifth scorer spots. Janie Cooper, who was consistently the Violets' fifth runner last year and has raced at the past two cross country national meets, is one of those options.
After qualifying for the 3000 meters at the 2024 indoor national meet, Cooper was nearly an "Honorable Mention" name outside of our top-20 preseason individual rankings. Which is to say that she's right on the cusp of our top-40.
Like Cochran, she's a strong candidate to earn her first All-American finish as she readies for her fourth NCAA Championships appearance. In fact, if NYU wins NCAA gold this fall, then Cooper could be the biggest reason why.
Lucy Gott is a name who we haven't mentioned up to this point. She was NYU's sixth or seventh runner for most of last fall and saved arguably her best race for the NCAA XC Championships, where she placed 86th. That kind of postseason peak is highly encouraging to see going into the fall of 2024.
However, like many of her above-listed teammates, that strong performance wasn't way out of line with expectations given that she placed roughly 20th at both the Connecticut College Invitational and the UAA XC Championships. Unlike several of her teammates, Gott was active on the track earlier this year. She raced the 5k four times, consistently finishing in a 15-second range around the 18:00 barrier.
Olivia Jackson may be our pick to take the fifth-runner role in 2024, however. She was a scorer for the national meet runner-up team on several occasions last year and was by far the best seventh runner in the field at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships, finishing 108th as a true freshman. If she's able to build upon her fitness this fall, then she'll contribute to what may be the best backend contingents of cross country runners in Division Three this fall.
Josephine Dziedzic will be among those in line to be NYU's new seventh runner. She was actually the Violets' fifth scorer in their 6k season opener last fall (ahead of Cooper, Gott and Jackson and just behind Kane). That came two weeks after she topped Gott and Jackson in a win over 3000 meters. Dziedzic didn't finish a race after mid-September last year, but went on to run a solid 17:40 (5k) mark in May.
Grace Rowley could be in store for a freshman-to-sophomore leap after also breaking 18:00 over 5000 meters. Another varsity option is Daniela Sekhar, who raced on NYU's 2022 cross country national meet team as a freshman and ran 17:45 (5k) earlier this year.
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While linear improvement is not a given, we envision Uhlhorn filling Richardson's shoes and Cochran placing around where Kane did last year. Kane may not make the jump into the top-20 to place where Uhlhorn did last fall, but we're banking on NYU's backend scorers making up the difference between two of Cooper, Gott and Jackson.
That's a formula that we feel (ever so slightly) better about than what our TSR #2 team, U. of Chicago, has to offer. Speaking of the Maroons, it will be quite interesting to see the Violets battle with them on multiple occasions in the postseason. It's conceivable that one of them will win the UAA XC Championships and the other will take the national title.
One of these two big-city squads may not even be the best team in their conference, but still be the second-best in the country. Is it fair to call the UAA the SEC of D3 (in comparison to SEC football that is)?
Ultimately, our TSR #1 spot came down to NYU having a bankable top-six compared to a strong top-four for U. of Chicago.
Uhlhorn, Kane and Cochran comprise an imposing top-three, but it's the Violets' other troika (Cooper, Gott and Jackson) that makes this team truly special and elevates NYU to be our pick to win their first cross country national title in program history later this fall.
