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TSR's 2024 Preseason D2 XC Top 10 Team Rankings (Women): #1 Adams State Grizzlies
- Gavin Struve
- Sep 13, 2024
- 8 min read
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On certain occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
After a national meet runner-up finish in 2023 snapped Adams State's streak of three consecutive cross country national titles, the Grizzlies will be heavily favored to return to the peak of the podium in 2024.
Their depth of talent is unmatched both this season and in recent memory among Division Two teams. Get this: The entirety of the Grizzlies' projected varsity lineup for this fall resides in the top-20 portion of our preseason individual rankings.
It's conceivable that all seven of Adams State's varsity runners finish as top-half All-Americans at the 2024 cross country national meet. That's true even as they lose their lead scorer: 17-time All-American Brianna Robles.
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The women of Adams State opened up their 2023 cross country season with an easy win over 5000 meters at their home meet. They quickly ramped up the level of competition from there, heading to the Live in Lou XC Classic.
Brianna Robles was the lone Grizzly in the top-15 in Louisville, placing 7th to give her team a low-stick presence in a deep field. With the rest of their five scorers in the top-25 -- Vienna Lahner (18th), Morgan Hykes (22nd), Ava O'Connor (23rd) and Emily Schoellkopf (25th), plus Fiona Hawkins (26th) -- the Grizzlies finished runner-up.
Sure, they had beaten Division One schools like Louisville, Purdue and Eastern Michigan and strong Division Two programs like Lee (Tenn.), UCCS and West Texas A&M. All of that was quite impressive, but Adams State likely didn't feel great about losing to another D2 powerhouse in Grand Valley State by 37 points.
The Lakers put two women ahead of Robles and four ahead of the Grizzlies' second scorer. That was the first sign of cracks in Adams State's façade last fall, but they could perhaps discount that result a bit since it came over 5000 meters rather than the standard 6k women's collegiate racing distance.
The Grizzlies bounced back for a win against elite competition at the RMAC XC Championships, marking their third consecutive conference title. Robles won gold, Schoellkopf produced a great 3rd-place result and O'Connor was close by in 6th. However, maybe more more importantly, there weren't any gaps in their lineup, as Hykes (10th) and Elena Carey (12th) closed out the scoring in short order.
If any of those women had faltered, Adams State still would have won comfortably as Tristian Spence finished 15th and Reina Paredes placed 18th. Ultimately, their depth of talent left eventual top-12 national meet teams like Colorado Mines, Western Colorado, CSU-Pueblo and UC-Colorado Springs in the dust.
The 'Grizz beat all of those same squads, and West Texas A&M, at the South Central Regional XC Championships, as Robles took the regional title and all seven of their varsity runners finished in the top-20.
Those earlier postseason results surely filled this group with confidence as they readied to take the fight back to GVSU in a bid for their fourth consecutive national title on the grass.
Alas, they didn't fare much better relative to the Lakers in their second matchup. Robles didn't beat GVSU's top runner (Natalie Graber), but was still excellent, placing 4th. Spence (16th) and O'Connor (17th) joined her as top-half All-Americans, and Hykes snuck into the top-30. Schoellopf narrowly gave Adams State a fifth All-American by placing 40th, as the entire varsity lineup finished in the top-80.
It was hard to pick apart any individual performance, but each member of the Grizzlies' varsity squad finished behind the GVSU counterparts in their scoring positions. A runner-up result would have been a triumph for any other program, but it was a slight step down for an Adams State team that has been the standard of excellence for as long as we could remember.
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Losing Brianna Robles certainly isn't optimal given how much she meant to this program's success over the last few years. However, if any team can reload with another cast of stars, it's Adams State.
Reina Paredes also departs from Adams State's 2023 NCAA XC Championships lineup. And while she was relatively accomplished, that loss is pretty negligible considering that Paredes would have been hard-pressed to make the team's varsity lineup again. That's how good the Grizzlies' 2024 crop looks.
Adams State will be led by three women in the top-10 portion of our preseason individual rankings. One is a sixth-year senior who sat out last fall (Precious Robinson) and the other two were Adams State's second and third scorers at the national meet last fall (Tristian Spence and Ava O'Connor).
O'Connor reached a new level on the grass last year, serving as her team's second or third scorer throughout the postseason in 2023. She leveled up again upon reaching the track in 2024, running an all-time steeplechase mark of 9:54 and finishing as the national meet runner-up in that event.
O'Connor's improvement from the spring of 2023 to 2024 suggests that she could make another small leap to top-10 status after going from just outside of the top-40 to finish the fall of 2022 to a top-half cross country All-American last year. She has evolved into one of the more lethal low-stick talents in the country and recent results suggest that this fall will be her best cross country season yet.
And yet, despite the incredible talent of O'Connor, it's Spence who is probably our pick to be the next face of this program. After all, she was Adams State's second scorer at the NCAA XC Championships last fall as a redshirt freshman. Like O'Connor, Spence only got more potent upon stepping onto the oval in 2023-24.
During the winter and spring months, Spence ran sub-16:00 over 5000 meters, along with a slew of other impressive personal bests, and earned a top-half All-American finish in the 5k at the indoor national meet.
Robinson placed just one spot behind Spence (5th) over 5000 meters at the 2024 NCAA Indoor Championships. That gave her a fifth All-American accolade and reminded us that Adams State has yet another superstar-caliber talent despite Robinson sitting out last fall. She was a top-15 finisher at both the 2021 and 2022 cross country national meets, so we'd hardly be surprised if she landed in the top-10 in her senior sendoff season.
The Grizzlies' boast a top-three this fall that is extremely formidable. Their projected top-three features tons of valuable experience as well as sneaky-good upside. It's hard to envision any of Division Two cross country squad having a 1-2-3 punch nearly as potent as what Adams State will field this fall.
Then there's Morgan O'Keefe (née Hykes), who's a back-to-back-to-back cross country All-American and someone who commonly doubles at the indoor and outdoor national meets on the track.
We know what we're going to get out of O'Keefe at this point, which is someone who probably won't be the Grizzlies' focal front-runner (although she's talented enough to occupy that role), but is essentially a lock as a high-value scorer.
Elena Carey joins her as a top-15 runner in our preseason individual rankings. She was "only" 60th at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships, but clearly has the upside to blow that performance out of the water in 2024. In fact, we think she has some of the best upside in the country.
Carey was a top-half All-American in both the mile and the 1500 meters earlier this year. Her most impressive mark, however, is probably a 9:54 effort over the barriers and water pits that gave her a win over more experienced steeplechasers in O'Connor and O'Keefe.
If those results still have you believing that Carey is simply more of a middle distance star, then consider that she placed 12th at the 2023 RMAC XC Championships in her first NCAA cross country season. That put her less than a second behind two women who placed in the top-30 on the national stage a few weeks later.
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Emily Schoellkopf is yet another Adams State woman with multiple All-American honors (on the grass) who was excellent on the track in 2023-24. She was the Grizzlies' second scorer at the 2023 RMAC XC Championships, placing 3rd overall after finishing 4th at the conference meet in 2022.
If she translates that success deeper into the postseason (and it's not like she has struggled on the national stage as is), Schoellkopf could surely be one of Adams State's lead scorers. While we do trust many of the other veterans on this team, Schoellkopf is the one who seemingly raises this team's floor in a substantial way.
The seventh member of this team who we have as a top-20 runner entering this fall is Maggie McCleskey. She didn't race in the postseason last year, but was 118th at the 2022 NCAA XC Championships after placing 11th at the 2022 RMAC XC Championships.
Those are solid results to begin with, but McCleskey took a major leap in the early portions of 2024. She competed at the NCAA Championships over 1500 meters, the 3000 meters and the DMR between the indoor and outdoor track seasons. However, she enjoyed by far her most success over 5000 meters (the track event that translates best to cross country success), earning bronze over that distance at the outdoor national meet.
We anticipate seeing a new version of McCleskey on the cross country course this fall.
What if we told you that there's another woman on this roster with 16:07 (5k) chops and two All-American honors to her name who we're not projecting to make Adams State's varsity lineup? That would be Fiona Hawkins. She thrived during the 2021-22 academic year, reaching all three national meets and placing 34th at the 2021 NCAA XC Championships.
We didn't see Hawkins at all during the 2022-23 academic year, but she raced on the grass a few times last fall and showed decent form in finishing 24th at the 2023 RMAC XC Championships. Hawkins likely isn't a scorer for the 'Grizz in 2024, but she's the kind of luxury depth piece that few (if any) other programs can boast.
Other names beyond that octet will face an uphill battle to reach the varsity lineup given the collective strength of the women we just outlined, but the Grizzlies also brought in a handful of transfers and freshmen.
Katie Hughes is the flashiest newcomer, as a 24-year-old Brit who has run a blistering 4:21 over 1500 meters. We don't know how her middle distance speed will translate to the cross country course -- although a 17:08 (5k) PR is a solid starting point -- but Coach Damon Martin has a long track record of developing multi-talented athletes, many of whom hail from overseas.
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A trip to Notre Dame for the Joe Piane Invitational (in lieu of the Live in Lou XC Classic) will be an interesting early-season test for an Adams State team that we typically don't see much of before the postseason.
Nonetheless, how the Grizzlies stack up in South Bend, Indiana against Division One powers likely won't have much of any bearing on what we expect from them at the RMAC XC Championships and the 2024 NCAA XC Championships: a pair of 1st-place team finishes.
Given all that Adams State returns (beyond Robles) and all that Grand Valley State lost, it appears far more likely than not that the women of Alamosa, Colorado will return to the podium's pinnacle in mid-November. They simply have too much firepower, stability, depth, experience and optionality for anyone else to contend with on paper.
