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TSR's 2024 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Team Rankings (Women): #1 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Sep 2, 2024
- 9 min read
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On certain occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
Was there ever a doubt?
The Northern Arizona women enter the fall of 2024 as the top team in the country -- and the nation is seemingly in agreement. Last year's group showcased an unreal amount of depth along with numerous highly-potent low-sticks. And although they lose a handful of key names, the new runners who they brought in, paired with their talented returnees, make the Lumberjacks just as formidable as they were last year.
Of course, we all know how last year's cross country season ended for the ladies of Flagstaff. Losing the 2023 national team title by a single point undoubtedly stings...a lot. But that is all the more reason to fear this team in 2024.
Prepare yourselves: Northern Arizona's revenge tour is coming.
* * *
The Virginia Invitational was NAU's first real test of last fall. It was also the meet where the Lumberjacks proved to the country that they were legitimate contenders for the national title, not just a podium team.
Elise Stearns (1st) had a brilliant performance, posting one of the best results of her career. That huge low-stick performance was complemented by Annika Reiss (8th) and New Mexico transfer Gracelyn Larkin (9th). Those two efforts were also huge, especially for Reiss. And with three women in the top-10, the team battle was essentially over.
Sophomore Keira Moore (14th) had a jaw-dropping breakout race while Maggi Congdon (16th) offered far greater scoring value than were expecting. By boasting five scorers who could have realistically been viewed as low-sticks for any other team, NAU easily cruised to the victory, scoring just 48 points, a margin of 56 points ahead of Stanford.
And suddenly, we found ourselves asking, "Can Northern Arizona take down NC State?"
Luckily, we got to find out at the Nuttycombe Invite.
In what may have been the single-most dominant team effort of the season, the Northern Arizona women trounced the Wolfpack and the rest of the NCAA in Madison, Wisconsin. Stearns (4th) was unsurprisingly great and Larkin (8th) turned out to be a bit more potent than we thought.
Reiss (10th) had what may have been the best race of her life at the time, producing a monster low-stick result which gave Northern Arizona an overwhelming amount of firepower. But the real star of the show was Ali Upshaw (12th), another New Mexico transfer who had a huge breakout race in her own right, finally delivering on the potential that we knew she had.
With Keira Moore (16th) posting a highly underrated result and Ruby Smee (24th) finding great success as well, there was no way for an Amaris Tyynismaa-less NC State squad to match NAU. In the end, the Lumberjacks scored just 52 points in the most competitive non-national meet of the year. NC State would finish a distant runner-up with 92 points.
The next few races for Northern Arizona -- the BIG Sky XC Championships and the Mountain Regional XC Championships -- were largely unimportant in the grand scheme of their 2023 mission. The NCAA XC Championships, of course, is what truly mattered.
The NAU women initially entered Charlottesville, Virginia as the national title favorites. Sure, the NC State women remained as a major threat for NCAA gold, but they would have to go through the Lumberjacks if they wanted to defend their national title.
But then news broke that Kelsey Chmiel, the second star low-stick for NC State, had sustained an injury and was out for the meet. Katelyn Tuohy, the Wolfpack's long distance phenom, had also fallen ill.
With All-American Sam Bush not having her best fall campaign and Amaris Tyynismaa having not yet finished a race at that point in the season, it felt like the Wolfpack stood little-to-no chance against the juggernaut that was Northern Arizona.
Larkin (13th) and Reiss (15th) led the way with two excellent results, validating their status as upper-echelon low-stick stars, something that they showcased throughout the fall months. Stearns (20th) didn't have her best day, but it was still a perfectly acceptable result which gave NAU three low-stick standouts in the top-20.
The challenge, however, is that NAU didn't have any All-Americans outside of their top-three. That was a surprising development given how potent their depth had been throughout last fall. Smee (54th) put together an admirable performance while Upshaw (57th) closed out the scoring with a good effort, although not quite as good as what we saw from her at the Nuttycombe Invite. Congdon (60th) also finished with that backend group for good measure.
The Northern Arizona women had run well, but not quite as well as we thought they could/would. NC State, meanwhile, had beaten expectations, specifically Bush and Tyynismaa. And when the dust settled, the final scores were posted.
NC State had defeated Northern Arizona.
By one point.
* * *
Last year's very narrow title loss must have been a painful outcome for the Flagstaff women, a group that, on paper, probably should have won gold. They had enough firepower to (mostly) match NC State and their depth was unquestionably better.
But it's now a new year and a new season. And this time, the NAU women likely have greater motivation behind them.
The Lumberjacks do lose a handful of key women from last year -- and they are admittedly brutal departures. NAU will no longer have the scoring services of Gracelyn Larkin or Annika Reiss this fall. Those two women were outstanding lead scorers who were incredibly reliable. When paired with Elise Stearns, the women of Flagstaff had a "Big Three" of sorts.
The team also loses a very respectable backend piece in Ruby Smee, but it's Larkin and Reiss who leave behind massive gaps in Northern Arizona's lineup. In fact, the only returning All-American from last year's national meet top-seven is Stearns.
So how is it that a team who only returns one All-American from last fall sits at TSR #1?
Well, it's because of the transfer portal.
Shortly after the cross country national meet, NAU was able to land an excellent All-American star in Alyson Churchill. Last fall, the former Florida State runner was 3rd at the Joe Piane Invite, 31st at Nuttycombe, 6th at the ACC XC Championships and 22nd at the NCAA XC Championships.
Landing Churchill more or less replaces 95% of the scoring value that Larkin or Reiss was able to provide. She is fairly consistent, seemingly has a high floor, holds plenty of experience and is coming off of a spring campaign where she ran a jaw-dropping 5k PR of 15:17 back in April.
There's a very realistic scenario where Churchill becomes a top-10 talent this fall. And if that happens, then NAU will have one of the most potent 1-2 punches in all of the NCAA when she's alongside Elise Stearns.
But those are only two established All-American low-sticks. A third lead scoring spot is still vacant in Northern Arizona's lineup. So how will the Lumberjacks be able to replace that missing firepower?
In our eyes, there are potentially two ways how that can happen.
The first way is that one individual breaks out and elevates their fitness to a top-20 All-American position. The second approach is that everyone on this team collectively improves enough to make up for the remaining open low-stick role.
The introduction of both Karrie Baloga (via Colorado) and Alex Carlson (via Rutgers) out of the transfer portal certainly gives way to either of the above-listed scenarios happening. Baloga, in particular, is someone who we think could be a true low-stick this fall after a highly promising freshman year.
As a rookie, Baloga placed 21st at the Virginia Invitational, 39th at the Nuttycombe Invite, 8th at the PAC-12 XC Championships and 82nd at the NCAA XC Championships (all with Colorado). And when an 82nd place finish at the national meet as a rookie is considered your "worst" performance of the season, then that's a good problem to have.
After transferring to Northern Arizona in the winter and emerging as a steeplechase All-American this past spring (with a 9:42 PR), we opted to list the sophomore inside the top-40 portion of our preseason individual cross country rankings.
We're extremely excited about the potential growth that Baloga could show this fall. She was already a borderline low-stick for the Buffaloes in 2023 and you could argue that she has only improved since then. With tons of youth-based upside, it's plenty possible that she fills that third low-stick position for NAU.
But if Baloga only makes marginal improvements, then that's ok, too. She will just need the rest of her teammates to also progress from where they were last year.
Alex Carlson, the other transfer, is mainly known for her prowess on the track. However, with personal bests of 4:31 (mile) and 8:56 (3k), one has to think that the former Rutgers runner has the potential to have some kind of impact on this team in October and November.
Admittedly, Carlson's best results on the grass are a relatively modest. She secured a 10th place finish at the Mid-Atlantic Regional XC Championships last fall as well as a 20th place finish at the BIG 10 XC Championships prior to that. She also seemed to hit a setback last year, but has quietly rallied since then.
Simply put, Carlson is a "wild card" as far as potential scoring is concerned. She's probably talented enough to be a top-five runner on this team, but at the moment, it feels plenty likely that she'll have more of a support role at the backend of NAU's lineup.
* * *
Make no mistake, the new additions to NAU's roster this fall are plenty exciting. However, it is the team's veteran returners who will truly dictate just how high their team's ceiling goes.
Take, for instance, Maggi Congdon. She is mostly known for her excellent middle distance talent on the track, and rightfully so. The NAU standout was an All-American in the mile this past winter and then ran 4:02 for 1500 meters at the USA Olympic Trials! Last fall, Congdon secured an eyebrow-raising 16th place finish at the Virginia Invitational before settling for a 47th place finish at the Nuttycombe Invite and a 60th place result at the NCAA XC Championships. If Congdon was already finding that much success last fall, then what can she do in 2024 after making massive improvements in her overall fitness?
Sure, 1500-meter success is not usually an indicator of how someone will fare on the grass. The difference with Congdon, however, is that she has already proven to be a crucial and valuable name during the cross country season. Most milers can't always says that.
We are also very big fans of Keira Moore, arguably the most underrated cross country runner in the entire NCAA.
Moore found outstanding success last fall during the regular season. The Aussie distance talent secured a fantastic 14th place result at the Virginia Invitr and an outstanding 16th place result at the Nuttycombe Invite. Those are absolutely low-stick-caliber results which suggest that she was going to be an All-American.
Unfortunately, we wouldn't see Moore for the remainder of the fall months due injury, leaving Northern Arizona with one less scoring weapon.
Staying healthy and available has been a challenge for Moore beyond just the 2023 cross country season. And naturally, that will be something that we keep in mind as the fall months unfold. But if Moore can toe the line at the national meet in the same form that she was in last fall, then it's going to take a monumental performance from teams like BYU or NC State to pull off the upset.
Ali Upshaw is someone who we have been very high on for a while. We felt that she was a true aerobic-centric runner with tons of potential, but she rarely got to showcase her raw talent on a New Mexico team that was absolutely stacked.
But last fall was when we saw Upshaw deliver on her upside, posting a career-defining 12th place result at the Nuttycombe Invite. The challenge, however, is that her only other race of importance last fall came at the NCAA XC Championships where she placed 57th. That was a fine result, but it didn't align with her performance in Madison, Wisconsin.
We know that Upshaw's ceiling is that of a top-30 All-American, at the very least. That's a good sign for an NAU team that is aiming to replace their lost firepower. Of course, we just don't know what version of Upshaw we'll get this fall. She was great on the track this past winter and spring, running 15:36 (5k) and 32:53 (10k), but she also struggled greatly at the outdoor national meet.
Thankfully, Northern Arizona is deep enough to the point where Upshaw can have an "off" day and the Lumberjacks won't be left floundering. If anything, she can only raise the ceiling for this team if she replicates her best performances on a more consistent basis.
Other names such as Maisie Grice (76th at last year's national meet), Payton Godsey (star freshman), Nikita Moore (winner of the Nuttycombe "B" race last fall) and Alexis Kebbe (99th at 2022 national meet) make up what is easily the best distance depth in the NCAA.
Any of those women could crack their team's top-seven and I don't know if we would be shocked if they did (although it feels unlikely that more than two of these women find their way into NAU's varsity group).
* * *
Northern Arizona's women's team has risen from relative obscurity to become a legitimate cross country powerhouse. And as we look towards the fall of 2024, the ladies of Flagstaff, Arizona are seemingly primed to avenge their now-departed teammates from last year's squad that barely missed securing NCAA gold.
And wouldn't that be poetic?
In the final year of Mike Smith coaching Northern Arizona, the Lady Lumberjacks could redeem themselves after last year's dramatic and brutal one-point title loss. In turn, Smith could ride off into the sunset, knowing that both his men's and women's team are national title winners.
