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TSR's 2024 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Team Rankings (Men): #1 Oklahoma State Cowboys
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Sep 2, 2024
- 7 min read
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On certain occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
Uh...surprise?
Oklahoma State being the best men's team in the country this year was probably the worst kept secret of the entire summer. Their national title victory from last fall wasn't just convincing, it was historically dominant. And believe it or not, this year's group may actually have a shot to prove that they're better.
After all, they only lose one runner from their top-five.
The Cowboys aren't totally invincible this year, but they're not too far off from that status, either. The amount of raw firepower on this team is insane and there are a number of reinforcements on this roster who could realistically be All-Americans in the fall.
* * *
Believe it or not, Oklahoma State's 2023 cross country season didn't truly begin until the postseason. That was the first time where we saw the Cowboys field their top lineup. We did, however, get to see a handful of new names make their NCAA debut at the Cowboy Jamboree in late September.
We are, of course, referencing Denis Kipngetich and Brian Musau. Those two men went 1-2, respectively, in the overall results. They both defeated a star-caliber name in Devin Hart (although Musau was only three seconds ahead while Kipngetich was much further ahead) and they had run fairly quick times on a cross country course that wasn't exactly known to be super fast.
Naturally, those results spurned plenty of questions. We knew that the Cowboy's newest duo was super talented, but it was also hard to put much stock into a meet that was more-or-less a rust-buster with a few Texas guys as the only real competition.
Thankfully, the BIG 12 XC Championships eventually answered our questions...or at least, most of our questions.
Despite having to face podium-worthy teams like BYU and Texas (as well as an Iowa State squad that may have been holding back), the Oklahoma State men easily won the BIG 12 title with ease. In that race, Brian Musau truly announced himself to the NCAA, securing a statement win after out-running teammate Alex Maier (2nd) at the tail-end of the race.
Veteran Fouad Messaoudi (5th) perfectly delivered on expectations, proving that he could be an effective scorer outside of just the national meet. Meanwhile, Will Muirhead (8th) and Jonas Price (9th) closed out the scoring. They were arguably the best part of that lineup.
Denis Kipngetich, however, seemingly had a bit of an "off" day. After seeing him thrive at the Cowboy Jamboree, he faded to 14th place at the BIG 12 XC Championships, leaving us to wonder if he was truly the low-stick star that we thought he was.
After easily cruising through the Midwest regional meet, Oklahoma State toed the line for the NCAA XC Championships. The season finale was supposed to produce yet another tight battle between the men of Stillwater, Oklahoma and Northern Arizona.
Some people had the Cowboys winning. Others took the Lumberjacks.
But as the race neared it's end, it was clear who was going to win.
In what turned out to be a historically elite and dominant effort, Oklahoma State posted a jaw-dropping total of just 49 points at the national meet.
Kipngetich (4th) proved that he was, in fact, the real deal while Musau (8th) ended what turned out to be a phenomenal year. Fouad Messaoudi (10th), despite his lack of racing, continued to be one of the most clutch postseason cross country talents in the NCAA. However, the biggest winner of this scoring group was Victor Shitsama (12th) who had struggled earlier in the year only to thrive when it mattered the most.
And finally, it was Alex Maier (15th), the long-time star veteran who had been around for so many great Oklahoma State teams, who closed out the scoring to secure NCAA gold.
* * *
Oklahoma State's lone loss from last fall is Alex Maier, the Cowboy star who placed 15th at the NCAA XC Championships. Despite "only" being the team's fifth scorer at the national meet, the Texas native felt like the face of the distance program, especially given his reliability as a low-stick and what he had accomplished in the years prior.
Is losing someone like Alex Maier ideal? No, definitely not. If you had removed him entirely from last year's national meet results (and thus moved everyone behind him up one spot), then NAU would have won the national title with 68 points. Oklahoma State would have had to settle for a runner-up finish at 76 points.
But when you compare the loss of Maier to the losses that other top programs have faced (mainly Northern Arizona), we begin to feel far less worried about his departure.
As far as Oklahoma State's returning top-four is concerned, there isn't a ton to talk about.
Both Brian Musau and Denis Kipngetich continued to have excellent success on the track. They more than validated their talent at last year's national meet and there isn't any reason to think that they won't be just as good in 2024 as they were in 2019.
We'll admit, we didn't necessarily love the fact that Fouad Messaoudi faded as hard as he did at the West Regional Championships this past spring, recording a DNF in the finals (of that meet). Even so, this is someone who has a history of not racing until the postseason. And after looking at the Cowboys' schedule this fall, that's probably what will happen again.
Even so, every time that Messaoudi has been called upon during the fall months, he has stepped up to the plate and delivered. In the fall of 2022, he placed 12th at the national meet. Last year, he secured 10th place.
Outside of a 5th place finish at last year's BIG 12 XC Championships, we don't have much more to analyze for Messaoudi as far as cross country is concerned. But for the little data that we do have, it's hard to question his value.
Victor Shitsama, meanwhile, is a bit of a trickier name to discuss.
The Kenyan distance ace admittedly struggled in his lead up to the cross country national meet. Placing 4th at the Cowboy Jamboree was hardly a concern, but a 45th place result at the BIG 12 XC Championships was a major red flag.
And yet, despite that, he still came through with an outstanding 12th place All-American run. If Victor Shitsama was still able to come away as a top-half All-American after the season he had last fall, then it's hard to imagine him not returning to the top-30 portion of this year's national meet (at the minimum).
He is, after all, a four-time All-American on the grass.
* * *
The only question that remains for this team in 2024 is, who will be their fifth scorer?
Maier's absence is a big one, but there are also a large handful of men who we believe could realistically be All-Americans this fall.
One of those men is Adisu Guadia. The Israeli distance standout competed for Oklahoma State last fall, although his performance at the BIG 12 XC Championships (22nd) wasn't exactly super exciting. Thankfully, Guadia offered strong value as a sixth man for the Cowboys at the national meet, placing 50th overall.
Despite that national meet effort, our writers at The Stride Report still needed to see more from Guadia before we felt comfortable saying that he'll be the Cowboys' fifth man in 2024. Of course, after seeing him run 28:10 for 10,000 meters and qualify for the outdoor national meet (where he admittedly struggled), we don't mind giving him the nod as this year's projected final scorer.
Guadia just needs to be "good enough" in order for Oklahoma State to defend their national title. If he can make a modest improvement into the All-American range, then it's going to be very, very difficult for any team to take down the men from Stillwater, Oklahoma.
Another option for that final scoring spot is Ryan Schoppe, a guy who ran 7:38 for 3000 meters last December. He also ran 13:37 for 5000 meters in the spring of 2023 and holds a 1500-meter PR of 3:37.
Schoppe is far better on the track than he is on the grass. That, however, is not to say that he can't be an effective scorer in cross country. In the fall of 2022, the Oklahoma State veteran placed 7th at the BIG 12 XC Championships (although that was before conference realignment happened) and 53rd at the national meet.
Like Guadia, we will probably need to see a little bit more out of Schoppe (on the grass) if he is going to be Oklahoma State's final scorer this fall. And yet, it's really hard to believe that someone who 7:38 for 3000 meters couldn't be an All-American runner in cross country.
Will Muirhead is SUPER underrated. He was a backend contributor for this team last year, but consistently held his own. After placing 8th at the top-heavy BIG 12 XC Championships, Muirhead secured an 85th place finish at the national meet despite being Oklahoma State's seventh man. In fact, he was the second-best seventh man on that stage, just one spot behind NAU's Theo Quax.
After running 13:46 for 5000 meters this past spring, I think we have to seriously ask ourselves how far out from All-American contention Muirhead really is. It's still more likely than not that he's a non-scorer for this team, but I would not sleep on his potential this fall.
Laban Kipkemboi is another name to consider. He ran 3:56 (mile) and 7:59 (3k) this past winter, but the initial rumors are that he is far better than that. We'll see if that's true this fall, but he's an off-the-radar name who could make a major impact.
We could go through all of the wildly talented freshmen on this roster and discuss their potential. But truthfully, it's hard to see any of these rookies having significant roles in Oklahoma State's lineup given how stacked this team already is.
It feels more likely than not that most of the rookies will be redshirted, although Will Conway (8:41 for 3200 meters) is a name who I am very high on.
* * *
If Oklahoma State's top-four runs as well as they did last year, then they will almost certainly win their second-straight national title. The backend portion of this lineup seemingly has enough depth and enough proven talent to ensure that they will close out the scoring in this lineup reasonably fast.
And in that scenario, it's hard to envision any team in the NCAA truly having a shot at upsetting Oklahoma State.
But maybe the wildest part in all of this is that the Cowboys may be in the midst of a historic streak of dominance -- and we just don't know it yet. The eligibility listed on TFRRS suggests that three of Oklahoma State's projected top-four will return in 2025. And Adisu Guadia? He's only a sophomore this year. Tack on a couple of elite recruiting classes and what do you get?
Well, in theory, you get a dynasty.
