.png)
TSR's 2024 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Team Rankings (Men): #9 North Carolina Tar Heels
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Aug 24, 2024
- 8 min read
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On certain occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
The last few years of North Carolina's roster construction has been done with the long-term objective of placing the Tar Heel men on the podium. And in 2023, it looked the UNC men were going to be legitimate threats to reach the top-four.
That, however, didn't happen.
Last year's group felt like the best chance that UNC has had to be a podium squad. That, of course, is not to say that the Tar Heels can't be a podium team in 2024. The window, however, is beginning to close.
With Parker Wolfe and Ethan Strand both in their final year of cross country eligibility, Coach Chris Miltenberg will need to capitalize on having two star low-sticks while he still can. And in order for that to happen, the former prep stars who are scattered throughout this roster will need to truly take the next step up.
* * *
The men of Chapel Hill began their 2023 fall campaign by venturing to the Virginia Invitational. The meet would prove to be a different beast than the Paul Short Run which the Tar Heels had previously attended in recent years.
On that stage, Parker Wolfe was unsurprisingly excellent, snagging a runner-up finish in an absolutely loaded field. That potent low-stick result was complemented by a shockingly great 8th place finish from Alex Phillip, a graduate transfer who had previously dominated Division Three.
Ethan Strand (20th) gave his team even more firepower, forming a scary 1-2-3 punch which was tied as the second-best trio in the field. Jake Gebhardt, a graduate transfer from Indiana, also had a very strong outing of his own, placing 37th overall and emerging as one of the better fourth scorers on any team at the meet.
However, with their final scorer fading all the way back to 91st place, the Tar Heels weren't able to keep pace with teams like Northern Arizona and BYU who simply had greater quality depth. Even so, North Carolina still put together an impressive performance, showcasing tremendous firepower to secure a 3rd place finish.
And yet, despite the initial success seen at the Virginia Invitational, the Nuttycombe Invitational would prove to be a completely different beast.
Wolfe, Phillip and Strand once again formed a lethal "Big Three" of scorers to go 7-11-27, respectively, in the overall results. However, this time around, Gebhardt struggled quite a bit, fading all the way back to 160th place.
With the team's final scorer not crossing the line until 204th place, the Tar Heels saw their team score balloon. That, in turn, gave North Carolina a rather unexciting 10th place finish, beating Notre Dame on a tie-breaker.
Despite the challenging outing for the latter-half of UNC's lineup, the Tar Heels still did enough to keep themselves in contention for the ACC title. However, UNC would need to go through a formidable Syracuse team if they wanted to secure gold.
In what turned out to be an overwhelming display of elite low-stick talent, the North Carolina men thrived at the ACC XC Championships. Wolfe, Phillip and Strand went 1-4-6, respectively, but the real hero was Gebhardt who rebounded beautifully from his poor Nuttycombe Invite to earn a huge 9th place finish.
With Colton Sands putting together a fairly respectable 29th place effort, it was UNC who emerged victorious, taking down the Orange by a whopping 16 points.
After qualifying for the national meet, the North Carolina men ventured to the NCAA XC Championships with one goal in mind: Be a podium team.
Wolfe (9th) was fantastic yet again, Phillip (17th) was absolutely brilliant and Strand (45th) did enough to still give North Carolina a "Big Three" identity. Gebhardt would also hold his own with a very respectable 78th place finish. But with Gitch Hayes crossing the finish line as the Tar Heels' final scorer in 147th place, UNC simply didn't have enough to crack the top-four.
Instead, they settled for 6th place, 38 points out from 4th place.
* * *
Trying to make another run at the podium this fall will be even more challenging than last year for North Carolina. That is because they lost two absolutely crucial scorers: Alex Phillip and Jake Gebhardt.
The former was a brilliant low-stick star who provided better-than-expected scoring potency throughout last fall. Phillip was one of the biggest reasons why UNC was so dangerous in 2023. Gebhardt, meanwhile, was one of the best support scorers in the nation (when he was firing on all cylinders). He even had a brief low-stick moment after placing 9th at the ACC XC Championships.
Losing those two scorers is a brutal hit to this North Carolina lineup. Not necessarily because of the lost scoring value, but because now, the Tar Heels need to lean much more heavily on their depth and their supporting cast.
And as you likely saw last year, depth wasn't exactly UNC's strong suit in 2023.
When it comes to Parker Wolfe and Ethan Strand, there is only so much that we can say before we become redundant. Both of these men are excellent low-sticks. Wolfe is truly elite and it feels more likely than not that Strand will be an All-American this fall.
But truthfully, there isn't much more that we can say about this duo. On paper, their improvements won't have a dramatic impact on their final team score. Instead, it's the rest of this lineup that will truly determine how far the Tar Heels go in 2024.
While UNC did lose Alex Phillip and Jake Gebhardt, they seemingly have a perfect replacement for the latter name.
I am, of course, talking about former Iowa runner, Max Murphy.
The former Hawkeye was one of the more underrated distance talents in the BIG 10 over the last few years. Last fall, he placed 20th at the Joe Piane Invitational and then a very strong 69th place at the NCAA XC Championships.
When pairing those finishes with times of 3:40 (1500), 7:59 (3k), 13:39 (5k) and 28:57 (10k), you begin to see how Murphy will fit perfectly into the open scoring role that Gebhardt left behind. They are two very similar runners as far as talent level is concerned.
Admittedly, Murphy's consistency will need to improve going into this upcoming season as his performances have often been fairly volatile. Last fall, the former Iowa runner posted a top-70 national meet result, but that was after he placed 34th at the BIG 10 XC Championships.
Relative to expectations, Murphy is probably the most important name on this team going into the fall of 2024. If he has any "off" days, then this team could be greatly punished on their scoring total based on the significant lineup gaps that we saw last fall.
Even so, Murphy fills a crucial gap and when thinking about his upside, he could maybe evolve into a fringe low-stick by the end of the season.
* * *
We feel pretty confident about what North Carolina's top-three will look like this fall.
But the rest of their lineup? Well, that's where things get much trickier.
It's no secret that last year's team struggled with depth. And while we are optimistic that this year's group will have greater reinforcements, it likely won't be enough to collectively make up for the loss of Alex Phillip.
The team's fourth scorer will likely be Colton Sands, a Pennsylvania native who began to pick up some great momentum in 2024. Last fall, Sands was UNC's fifth scorer at the Virginia Invitational (91st) and the ACC XC Championships (29th). Those are fine results for a fourth or fifth scorer on a team ranked outside of our top-20. But for a podium-caliber squad, those efforts will need to be much better moving forward.
Thankfully, we saw Sands make great progress this past spring, recording new personal bests of 13:45 (5k) and 28:49 (10k) on the track. Those are highly encouraging marks for someone who now has a valuable year of experience under his belt.
Sands doesn't need to be a low-stick star in order to help his team (although that would certainly be a welcomed development). He does, however, need to get as close to Murphy as possible and ensure that North Carolina's team score stays in check.
Will Coogan and Patrick Anderson are two long-time veterans who ran in the low-13:50s for 5000 meters this past spring. But what's important to remember is that both of these men were in a near-fatal car accident nearly a year and a half ago. After missing multiple semesters of schools and lengthy hospital stays, both Coogan and Anderson seem to be slowly building back their fitness.
In the fall of 2022, Anderson was 15th at the ACC XC Championships and 113th at the national meet. The year before that, he finished 108th at the national meet. He has also run times of 3:40 (1500), 7:54 (3k), 13:37 (5k) and 28:54 (10k).
Coogan, meanwhile, won the 5k title at the Penn Relays earlier this spring. But the year before that, he had run times of 7:54 (3k) and 13:44 (5k). He also placed 106th at the 2022 cross country national meet.
Expecting both Anderson and Coogan to be in peak form by October and November feels unfair and unlikely. But the fact that this duo has seemingly returned to a somewhat competitive level of fitness is very encouraging for a team that needs the man power.
Just like we mentioned with Colton Sands, neither Anderson nor Coogan need to be superstars. They just need to raise the floor of this lineup to a higher point than it was at last year. If that happens, then UNC is likely going to be better than our TSR #9 spot suggests.
Other men such as Gitch Hayes, Aiden Neal and pretty much any underclassman on this roster all have a chance to crack this lineup in 2024. Coach Chris Miltenberg has been a masterful recruiter of domestic talent, but developing some of his younger athletes has taken time. Could this be the year where the pedigree of his loaded roster is fully showcased at the collegiate level?
* * *
This feels like a "make it or break it" season for the North Carolina men. The Tar Heels have been slowly rising towards podium contention for the last few years, but their most impactful scorers will be gone after this fall.
If everyone in UNC's lineup fully delivers on their potential and upside on the same day, then this squad can be a top-four team in November. That, however, also requires a lot of different things going right.
The upcoming cross country season seemingly has a wide range of possible outcomes for the North Carolina men this fall. And frankly, we would be surprised if they ended their fall campaign at our TSR #9 spot given the volatile nature of their roster.
But at the end of the day, it's hard not to trust Chris Miltenberg. He is the reason why this team has even gotten this far. And for the most part, this team has run exceptionally well on the national stage and they have improved their spot in the national standings over the last few years.
In theory, that means a podium result is on tap for this fall...right?
