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TSR's 2024 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Team Rankings (Men): #10 Virginia Cavaliers
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Aug 23, 2024
- 8 min read
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On certain occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
Alright, we'll admit -- we might have been a bit overzealous last summer when ranking the Virginia men. Going into last fall, we placed the Cavaliers at TSR #8 in our preseason rankings. We were excited about the excellent depth on their roster and we felt like the youth-based upside would shine through now that they had experience.
Make no mistake, the Cavaliers were still a strong cross country squad last fall, but pinning them as a top-10 team, in retrospect, was us being one year ahead of schedule.
This year, there is far less projection and far more certainty as to who the Virginia men are as a scoring unit. This once-young group of distance standouts are all grown up and they have all of the tools to build off of this preseason ranking.
But can the Cavaliers find more potent firepower and eliminate backend scoring gaps? If they can, then the podium may be within reach.
* * *
The Virginia men would kick-off their 2023 cross country season at the aptly-named Virginia Invitational which would feature a sizable field of top-tier distance programs.
There, Gary Martin would emerge with a fantastic 13th place finish, effectively signaling his adoption of the "low-stick" scoring role. With teammate Will Anthony snagging 29th place, the Cavaliers were at least holding their own through two runners. The same could be said for Nathan Mountain who placed 41st and Jacob Hunter who took 53rd place.
Wes Porter's 78th place finish wasn't necessarily poor, but he was certainly capable of more. That backend scoring gap, paired with somewhat limited firepower, forced the Cavaliers for a 7th place team finish on their home course.
They were still competitive, but the cohesion of their lineup needed to improve.
The Virginia men would stay at home for their next meet, Pre-Nationals. This field, however, was lighter compared to the Virginia Invitational with Arkansas, Tennessee, Montana State and maybe Purdue acting as the main headline groups (and UVA, of course).
Gary Martin (10th) once again came through with a great low-stick result, mostly validating his performance from the Virginia Invitational. That was an important development for a team that was looking for someone who they could consistently lean on to be their lead ace. Will Anthony (13th) also made great progress, producing a fringe low-stick result of his own.
Nathan Mountain (22nd) was steady yet again, offering valuable middle-lineup scoring stability. But with the team's final two scorers fading to 32nd place and 37th place, Virginia's point total began to get away from them.
In the end, Arkansas would dominate the meet and Tennessee somewhat comfortably pulled away from Virginia. In turn, the Cavaliers took a 3rd place team result, 25 points ahead of Montana State.
The ACC XC Championships, however, is where the structure of this lineup began to evolve. In Tallahassee, the Cavaliers saw Will Anthony (7th) and Gary Martin (8th) provide a potent 1-2 scoring punch. And while those were a great pair of results, it was Yasin Sado (13th) and Nathan Mountain (14th) who were truly the biggest heroes of the meet for UVA.
The Cavaliers finally had a complete and highly effective top-four. However, with their final scorer fading back to 36th place, the UVA men had to settle for 3rd place overall, finishing behind North Carolina and Syracuse. And while they may have wanted more, the Cavs still took down a large handful of very strong teams such as Notre Dame, Florida State and Wake Forest.
After escaping a small scare at the Southeast Regional XC Championships, the Virginia men returned to their home course where they would play host for the NCAA XC Championships.
Will Anthony (61st) was the team's top scorer. And while that was a very respectable result, the Virginia men needed both him and Gary Martin to be closer to All-American contention. Martin, however, struggled greatly and didn't even score for the team.
Yasin Sado (73rd) had what may have been the best race of his season, offering some scoring stability for a squad that was in need of exactly that. The same could be said for Wes Porter (118th) who rallied after going through a challenging overall season.
However, with the team's final scorers failing to crack the top-170 spots, the Virginia men closed out a challenging fall campaign with an uninspiring 22nd place team result.
* * *
Saying that last year's fall campaign went poorly for the Virginia men would be inaccurate. For the most part, they were a consistently competitive team that took down a handful of great squads.
Of course, there were shortcomings that the Cavaliers struggled to manage at times. Gary Martin went from being a low-stick to a non-factor during the postseason (maybe due to injury or illness?) and a large handful of gaps opened up in the latter-half of UVA's scoring group.
And yet, when you look at this group from a wholistic point of view, it's hard to believe that they aren't capable of being a top-10 team this fall. Each of these men are another year older and many of the Cavaliers' most important names all made great improvements over the last year.
Losing a guy like Yasin Sado is going to sting. He wasn't a major contributor on this team until he reached the postseason, but once he was there, he finished 13th at the ACC XC Championships and 73rd at the NCAA XC Championships. His departure is going to leave a fairly sizable hole in Virginia's lineup unless they can develop greater depth.
Thankfully, everyone else on this team is set to return. And now, there's a real possibility that the Cavaliers will boast three low-sticks this fall if everything goes perfectly.
Will Anthony and Gary Martin are probably going to be the second-best 1-2 punch in the ACC this fall behind only North Carolina. Both men showcased excellent growth last fall, each doing enough to be labelled as a "low-stick."
We will acknowledge that Martin's move up to the 10k racing distance last fall wasn't exactly pretty. He was 79th place at the Southeast regional meet and 219th at the NCAA XC Championships. And while neither of those results were encouraging by any means, it's still hard to believe that those performances are accurate indications of what Martin is truly capable of.
Anthony, meanwhile, was solid across the board last fall. We have him listed in our preseason individual cross country rankings at TSR #44. The Kiwi distance ace had a great year on the track and has clearly grown into a reliable lead talent. He is one of Virginia's runners who we are the least worried about going into this fall.
We then come to Nathan Mountain, someone who has a ton of talent which is best put on display in the steeplechase.
Make no mistake, Mountain was still a valuable scorer for Virginia last fall, although certain races were definitely better than others. His 14th place finishes at both the ACC XC Championships and the Southeast regional meet were great examples of him being closer to Will Anthony and Gary Martin than the rest of his team.
But more importantly, Mountain ran a fantastic PR of 8:20 over the barriers and water pits this past spring. He was also the runner-up finisher in the steeplechase at this year's NCAA Outdoor Championships.
At the end of the day, Mountain is probably the biggest x-factor on this team. If he is able to consistently deliver low-stick-caliber results, then this will become a very dangerous team. And with that much firepower, UVA can at least mitigate some of the backend scoring gaps that held them back last fall.
* * *
While Anthony, Martin and Mountain will likely be the focal members of this lineup, it's the rest of this team that will truly dictate whether or not the Cavaliers have a successful season or not.
One of those crucial support pieces will likely be Will Daley, a graduate transfer from Dartmouth.
At first glance, times of 8:00 (3k) and 13:57 (5k) don't really spark much excitement about Daley as a scorer. However, the former Big Green runner didn't race on the track this past year and is unquestionably at his best on the grass.
In the fall of 2022, Daley placed 20th at the Panorama Farms Invitational, 17th at the Ivy League XC Championships and 16th at the Northeast Regional XC Championships. Then, last year, Daley earned a very promising 15th place finish at Pre-Nationals before replicating his 17th place effort at the Ivy League XC Championships.
On paper, the introduction of Daley to Charlottesville may end up being one of the more underrated pick-ups of the offseason. He doesn't have to be a star, but he does need to adequately fill a scoring gap left behind by Yasin Sado.
And considering that Daley was only two spots off from Will Anthony at Pre-Nationals, asking him to be a stable support scorer seems plenty fair.
Wes Porter is an interesting name. You could argue that he is just as naturally talented as (almost) anyone on this team. He was one of the nation's top freshmen a few years back (admittedly during a pandemic-altered season) and has flexed great times on the track.
On TFRRS, you'll find that Porter owns strong marks of 3:39 (1500), 3:56 (mile), 7:56 (3k) and 13:36 (5k). And while those are all great PRs, what really caught our attention was Porter's monster 3:35 (1500) PR from the Portland Track Festival. That kind of raw fitness should at least partially translate to the grass even if the distances vary dramatically.
Not only that, but Porter has also been better in cross country than last year would suggest. In the fall of 2022, he placed 18th at the Panorama Farms Invitational and was 20th at the ACC XC Championships that year.
We feel pretty comfortable saying that Porter will be in Virginia's lineup this fall. Of course, trying to figure out which version of him we'll get is the real challenge.
Justin Wachtel is someone who we've been high on for a while now. For the last couple of years, we've believed that he is due for a breakout season. And truthfully, we still think that can happen, especially after seeing him run 13:49 for 5000 meters this past spring.
Yes, Wachtel's 2023 fall campaign was very underwhelming. Even so, his 2022 cross country results suggest that he can be a highly impactful scorer and almost the perfect replacement for Yasin Sado. That year, Wachtel placed 6th at the Panorama Farms Invitational, 13th at the ACC XC Championships, 3rd at the Southeast regional meet and 136th at the national meet.
If this long distance veteran is in top form this fall, then a TSR #10 spot will not be a good enough preseason ranking for Virginia. And thankfully, Wachtel's best outdoor track season was just a few months ago. That can only mean good things for the Cavaliers.
When we look at options for the remaining spots in this lineup, there are a handful of serviceable options. Andrew Jones, Jack Eliason, Jacob Hunter and maybe even Conor Murphy will likely be the men who are offer scoring support.
True freshman Jimmy Wischusen was one of our top-50 ranked recruits for the Class of 2024 and may be given a shot to crack this lineup. But given the depth of this team, it's also plenty possible that he gets redshirted.
* * *
The 2023 cross country season was not a proper indication of what this team is capable of. Multiple men were not at their best last fall and a key low-stick faltered in the postseason.
But in 2024, almost everyone is returning. Key support scorers made great progress on the track and a highly underrated transfer joined this program to effectively replace Yasin Sado. On paper, that's a very safe team with a very high floor.
Of course, that's not to say that this team is flawless.
Mountain still needs to translate his steeple success to the grass, Martin will need to fix whatever happened to him during the 2023 fall postseason and the supporting cast will need to deliver on the upside that they flashed on the track.
Even so, it feels like 2024 could be UVA's first true "statement" cross country season of the Vin Lananna era. The last few years of recruiting and training have built up to this moment and if everything clicks, then this is going to be a very fun and very popular team to follow.
And I say all of this as a Virginia Tech alum.
