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TSR's 2024 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Team Rankings (Men): #6 New Mexico Lobos
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Aug 28, 2024
- 7 min read
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On certain occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
When people think of New Mexico cross country, they typically think of the women's team -- and understandably so.
The Lady Lobos were historically dominant under their former coach, Joe Franklin. By winning multiple national titles and earning plenty of podium finishes, it felt safe to say that the New Mexico women were a true powerhouse.
That, however, was not the case for the men's team.
The Lobo men simply weren't as strong as their teammates on the other side of the program. A large part of that was due to a lack of funding for scholarships. Of course, nowadays, that part has changed and Coach Darren Gauson has taken full advantage of the resources given to him.
Armed with four highly impressive long distance runners, this year's New Mexico team is going to be a nightmare matchup for any program that is even remotely limited on firepower. They'll still need to put together their best performances when it matters most, but it's not hard to envision this squad standing on the podium come November.
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The 2023 cross country season would act as the debut fall campaign for three highly-touted distance stars from Africa. Their names? Habtom Samuel, Evans Kiplagat and Lukas Kiprop.
Those three men would act as the focal identity of this team throughout the 2023 cross country season. And naturally, everyone was fascinated to see how the newest Lobos would fare in their first test of the season.
In this case, that was the Griak Invitational.
On the rolling Minnesota hills, the Lobo's "Big Three" dominated. Habtom Samuel easily took home the win while teammate Lukas Kiprop took an impressive 3rd place finish. Evans Kiplagat would place 5th, giving New Mexico a lethal top-three that no other team in the field came close to matching.
The issue, however, was depth.
Despite the unreal firepower at the top of their lineup, men such as Thomas Termote (53rd) and Samuel Field (54th) weren't able to keep the gap between them and their teammates close. And with key veteran Jonathan Carmin producing a DNF result, New Mexico had to settle for a 3rd place finish behind California Baptist and Gonzaga.
Of course, a far greater test remained on the horizon for New Mexico: the Nuttycombe Invite.
This time around, Samuel posted a still-fantastic 3rd place finish. His huge low-stick result was later complemented by Kiplagat's excellent 18th place finish, a clear improvement on his earlier result from the Griak Invitational. Kiprop, however, faded just a touch, settling for 45th place overall. Of course, that was still a very effective result that gave the Lobos another excellent scoring triad.
Admittedly, the backend of this lineup still had major gaps, although Samuel Field (156th) seemingly held his own in comparison to his earlier race. But the Lobos' fifth scorer? Well, they would fade back to 215th place. That, in turn, would put the New Mexico men at the 14th place spot in the final standings.
Perfect? No.
But encouraging? Yes.
Fast forward to the Mountain West XC Championships, a meet which featured a head-to-head matchup between Air Force and New Mexico. And if you had asked everyone at TSR who they thought was going to win that meet, then you likely would have half of the votes on the Falcons and half of the votes on the Lobos.
On that stage, Samuel, Kiplagat and Kiprop imposed their full aerobic talent on the field, going 1-2-3 and giving New Mexico a scoring trio that quite literally could not have been better. The catch? Air Force put all five of their scorers in the top-10, going 4-5-7-9-10.
And yet, despite that impressive team-centric performance from the Falcons, it was still New Mexico who came out with a two-point win. But how could that have happened if Samuel Field finished in 20th place?
Well, that's because he was the team's fifth scorer, not their fourth scorer. Instead, it was Jonathan Carmin who had the single-most clutch race of his life to finish 8th overall. Despite a series of challenging races leading up to the postseason, he still came through.
After advancing out of the Mountain regional meet, the New Mexico men toed the line in Charlottesville, Virginia for their final test of the season: the NCAA XC Championships.
On that stage, Samuel was unsurprisingly elite, securing a massive runner-up effort. He was later followed by Evans Kiplagat who took 33rd place overall, a somewhat predictable All-American result for the secondary low-stick.
Unfortunately, Samuel and Kiplagat would need to wait another 115 spots before they saw Lukas Kiprop (148th) cross the line. Thomas Termote (174th) was somewhat close behind while the team's final score faded to 207th place.
And despite having two All-American aces, New Mexico had to settle for 18th place overall at the NCAA XC Championships.
* * *
When it comes to Habtom Samuel and Evans Kiplagat, there isn't much that we can say that you don't already know.
Samuel is an elite superstar, but that was plenty evident last fall. And while his incredible 10k accolades on the outdoor oval this past spring deserve applause, it's not like that rise in fitness is going to lead to a dramatic change in scoring. Frankly, Samuel is so good to the point where he can only improve by a point or two at certain meets.
Kiplagat, meanwhile, was super consistent last fall. He was great across the board at every meet he toed the line for. That kind of steadiness and stability is huge for a team that is fairly limited on depth and has very little room for error. But as long as Kiplagat can replicate last year's performances, then this team should have a floor that doesn't fall beyond our TSR #20 spot in these rankings.
Lukas Kiprop, however, is a different story.
It was abundantly clear last fall that Kiprop had tons of natural talent. Earlier that summer, he had posted outstanding times of 7:41 (3k) and 13:28 (5k). And after seeing him placing 3rd at the Griak Invitational, we felt like we had another All-American ace on our hands.
But as the fall months unfolded, Kiprop struggled to establish consistency.
Finishing in 45th place at the Nuttycombe Invite was solid, but it likely could have been better. Another 3rd place finish at the Mountain West XC Championships behind his two teammates was encouraging. But after taking 148th place at the NCAA XC Championships, it has become a significant challenge to figure out what Kiprop can offer New Mexico this fall.
There is no denying that Kiprop has enough natural talent and fitness to be an All-American this fall. In fact, he had the talent to do so last year! And yet, he is still a major wild card. If he delivers on his full potential, then the idea of New Mexico landing on the podium goes from being a stretch to a realistic possibility.
* * *
Admittedly, we already knew plenty about New Mexico's three-headed scoring monster. But what about the rest of this team? What has Coach Darren Gauson done to improve this group beyond their elite trio? The depth in last year's lineup left much to be desired.
Of course, Gauson seemingly knew that.
Enter Vincent Chirchir.
The 2024 outdoor track season is when we first saw New Mexico's newest long distance weapon debut. And to put it simply, Chirchir was really, really good. The Kenyan ace ripped off times of 13:34 (5k) and 28:09 (10k) before the month of May, showcasing tremendous aerobic strength. His postseason campaign, however, wasn't ideal.
After finishing runner-up in the 10k at the Mountain West Outdoor Championships, Chirchir struggled to rebound in the 5k later that weekend. And at the West Regional Championships, Chirchir barely missed advancing to the national meet in both events.
We placed Vincent Chirchir in the "Just Missed" portion of our preseason individual cross country rankings. That, however, is only because we simply don't know what to expect from him on the grass. There's a good chance that he's talented enough to be an All-American, but will his consistency allow him to earn that honor once he reaches the national stage?
If Lukas Kiprop is the "wild card," then Chirchir is the "x-factor" -- he can only make this team better. The only question is...by how much?
On paper, New Mexico now has four legitimate low-stick candidates. And by this point, you can begin to see why we have them ranked at TSR #6. Of course, it takes five runners to score in cross country and thankfully for the Lobos, there are new reinforcements in Albuquerque.
Rikus Van Niekerk is a name that may sound familiar. That's because he was one of California Baptist's core scorers during the 2023 regular season.
Last fall, Van Niekerk earned a strong 8th place finish at the Griak Invitational and then earned a highly promising 69th place finish at the Nuttycombe Invite. The issue, however, is that he struggled mightily in the postseason, placing 44th at the West Regional XC Championships and then not even toeing the line at the NCAA XC Championships.
The best version of Van Niekerk is a crucial backend scorer who gives this team everything they need to be a podium squad. If he's firing on all cylinders and is able to replicate his underrated scoring from last fall, then New Mexico is going to be EXTREMELY challenging to take down.
As for the rest of this squad, Thomas Termote is set to return, this time with a 28:58 (10k) PR. He'll likely be joined by Iker Sanchez who is a sneaky-good pick-up from Arizona who boasts a 4:00 mile PR. There are also a plethora of younger guys from overseas scattered throughout this roster. I would not be surprised if one of those men found their way into this top-seven.
* * *
If everything goes perfectly for this team, then they'll be a podium squad. It would not surprise us at all if Samuel, Kiplagat, Kiprop and Chirchir all finished their seasons as All-Americans. And as long as their fifth man is at least serviceable enough, then this is going to be one of the last teams who I would want to face.
Questions pertaining to consistency and concerns regarding postseason performances (for a few select men) is what ultimately brings New Mexico back to TSR #6. But as we look ahead to the fall of 2024, we can't stop ourselves from comparing the Lobos to a few other powerhouse programs.
And truthfully, the differences are minimal.
Very, very minimal.
