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TSR's 2024 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Team Rankings (Women): #7 Alabama Crimson Tide
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Aug 27, 2024
- 7 min read
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On certain occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
Trying to construct Alabama's roster over the last few years has likely been a roller coaster ride of emotions for their coaching staff. With so many upper-echelon stars being brought into the program -- and a significant coaching change sparking numerous departures -- expectations for the Crimson Tide women have wildly fluctuated.
As we prepare for the 2024 cross country season, that narrative still holds merit. The Alabama women just lost one of the single-best distance runners in the NCAA from a team that stunned many by thriving at last year's national meet. But in the place of a lost superstar comes a handful of high-upside distance talents.
The only thing holding this Alabama squad back in our rankings is uncertainty surrounding over half of their projected lineup. Although, to be clear, that uncertainty pertains to how effective certain women will be as scorers. In terms of the personnel that Alabama will field this fall, we feel like we have a somewhat decent grasp on that.
And as far as pure talent goes, this team is probably closer to our top-six or even our top-five.
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Last fall, the Alabama women toed the line for the Joe Piane Invitational, their first true challenge of the fall months. There, they would face a limited NC State squad as well as Notre Dame.
Doris Lemngole earned a huge statement victory, showing the rest of the NCAA that she is, in fact, the real deal. Hilda Olemomoi placed 8th in what was a bit of an "off" day for her, although that was mostly because she was ill. Joy Gill would cross the line as the team's third scorer in what turned out to be a very respectable 11th place finish.
Elka Machan (24th) and McKenzie Hogue (29th), while not perfect, did ensure that the gap between them and Alabama's top-three stayed in check. That wasn't enough to surpass NC State or Notre Dame, but it did present plenty of promise for the rest of the Crimson Tide's season.
The Alabama Crimson Classic was a home meet for the ladies of Tuscaloosa, but the field admittedly didn't yield much competition. In fact, it wouldn't be until the SEC XC Championships that we saw the Crimson Tide women truly tested once again.
At their conference meet, Doris Lemngole and Hilda Olemomoi put together an unsurprisingly brilliant pair of finishes, placing 2nd and 3rd, respectively. And yet again, Joy Gill would act as a key stabilizing scorer in 15th place.
However, it wasn't until Elka Machan (28th) and McKenzie Hogue (36th) crossed the line that Alabama could close out their scoring. And unfortunately for them, those backend gaps proved to be too much to overcome. The Crimson Tide women faded to 4th place overall, losing to Florida, Arkansas and Tennessee.
After advancing out of the South region, the Alabama toed the line in Charlottesville, Virginia for the NCAA XC Championships. And while their lineup structure did seemingly favor them in that kind of field, what happened next was not something that we could have anticipated.
Lemngole and Olemomoi would take 2nd and 3rd place, respectively, in what was easily the most potent 1-2 punch of the meet. And with Joy Gill snagging a quietly excellent 53rd place finish, the Crimson Tide were in a tremendous position through three runners.
Despite Machan (160th) and Hogue (170th) falling a good ways back, the ladies of Alabama still walked away from the national meet with a fantastic 7th place team finish, easily shattering initial expectations.
* * *
Alright, let's just rip the band-aid off so that we can get to the good news of this team.
In case you didn't hear by now, Alabama no longer has one of their two superstars from last fall. I am, of course, talking about Hilda Olemomoi who has reunited with her former coach, Will Palmer, at Florida.
Losing Hilda Olemomoi is a crushing loss. With the possible exception of Lemngole, there isn't another scorer in the NCAA (currently) who has been more reliable and elite than Olemomoi has. In fact, if she had stayed with Alabama, then you're looking at a team that could have very realistically won the national team title this fall.
Not only that, but both Elka Machan and Mackenzie Houge are gone. Those two women didn't have any major jaw-dropping performances, but they at least closed out Alabama's scoring fairly well in half of their meets.
Losing Machan and Houge isn't necessarily devastating given that the Crimson Tide can likely find backend scoring replacements (and they have). Even so, for a team that was already thin on depth, not having those women as insurance for this fall isn't ideal.
Thankfully, Doris Lemngole is still around and on paper, you quite literally can't find a better cross country scorer than her based on last year's results. She is as elite as they come and will continue to be the foundational piece who props this team up.
But truthfully, we already know how good Lemngole is. And while we could go on and on about how impressive of a runner she is, the only point that we need to make is that she'll almost certainly not score more than three points for Alabama at any meets this year.
Behind Lemngole, we're under the impression that Joy Gill and Brenda Tuwei will step into the second and third scoring roles (or vice versa).
Gill is a very underrated talent coming from Incarnate Word last summer. She joined an Alabama squad that very much needed middle-lineup stability and that is exactly what she provided. With finishes of 11th at Joe Piane, 15th at the SEC XC Championships and 53rd at the national meet, Gill would be a borderline lead scorer for a small handful of teams in our preseason rankings.
For the most part, we think we know what we're getting out of Gill. We're not entirely sure how much more she'll continue to improve -- she ended her outdoor track season after just one (very solid) 10k race -- but it cannot be overstated how valuable her stability is.
Brenda Tuwei, meanwhile, is an interesting name. She owns a 10k PR of 31:20 from 2023, but that effort came on the roads. The Kenyan distance talent joined Alabama during the winter months and has yet to compete in cross country for the Crimson Tide.
On the oval, Tuwei produced very respectable marks of 15:51 (5k) and 33:00 (10k). Those are solid performances, but it does feel like there is greater potential within the sophomore distance standout. Moving up to 6k on the grass should theoretically benefit someone who has an All-American ceiling, but we also haven't seen enough from Tuwei yet to say with certainty that she will reach that point.
We're more optimistic than not that Tuwei will be a top-four scorer for Alabama this fall. Of course, where that puts her in the final results of her meets is the biggest uncertainty.
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Pheline Mining is the fourth name who needs to be highlighted, but that doesn't necessarily mean that she'll be the fourth scorer on this team. Based on her credentials (which we have not yet been able to independently verify), she could certainly be better than the fourth scorer in Alabama's lineup.
The incoming Kenyan distance runner is rumored to have run times of 4:21 (1500) and 9:30 (3k). And while those marks may not seem all that special, they do look much more impressive when you realize that Mining ran those times at altitude.
If we suppose that Mining was at 5000 feet when she ran those times, then those performances get converted to marks of 4:15 (1500) and 9:13 (3k).
Simply put, Mining is a massive wild card. We truthfully have no idea what to expect from her. She could instantly improve and make a better-than-expected jump over the next few months or she could fall back to the fifth scoring role in this lineup.
Alabama's ceiling for this fall will almost certainly be determined by her.
Salma Elbarda, a transfer from Wyoming, and Franziska Drexler, an incoming talent from Germany, are two key names who are arguably just as important to Alabama this fall.
The former has run 4:35 in the mile and 9:23 for 3000 meters, the latter mark coming at altitude. Elbarda also qualified for the outdoor national meet this past spring over 1500 meters. As for Drexler, she has run 16:20 for 5000 meters and placed a highly promising 9th at the 2023 U20 European XC Championships.
Elbarda and Drexler are ultimately the two women who make us feel good about Alabama being ranked at TSR #7. Even if one or two of the above-mentioned women aren't as effective as we think they will be, Elbarda and Drexler are still excellent scoring insurance. And given their upside, we have confidence that they'll make a heavy impact this fall.
Don't forget about Addison Dorenkamp, either! She's an Iowa native who had a fantastic year on the track this past winter and spring. With head-turning personal bests of 4:40 (mile), 9:30 (3k) and 16:52 (5k), as well as prior success at prior cross country national championships, you can see how dangerous this rookie could be if she catches fire.
* * *
Usually, the structure of Alabama's cross country lineups are top-heavy with very limited depth. But believe it or not, the greatest strength of the Crimson Tide's 2024 group may actually be their depth. Or at least, the number of options that they can choose from.
That's not to say that this team doesn't have great firepower -- Doris Lemngole is on their team, after all -- but we don't entirely know what to expect from certain women. Runners such as Brenda Tuwei, Pheline Mining, Salma Elbarda and Franziska Drexler clearly have a ton of talent, but we don't know how that will translate to the grass in October and November.
And yet, that may not matter. If just one of those women ends up being better than projected, then this preseason ranking is more than justified. In fact, you could probably argue that Alabama should be ranked higher than this.
Most teams would almost never be able to rebound in a single offseason if they lost a runner like Hilda Olemomoi.
But Alabama isn't like "most teams."
Coach Nick Stenuf has made the most out of everything that has been put in front of him and he has ensured that Alabama will continue to thrive in overseas recruiting.
Now, as we enter 2024, the Crimson Tide women will have a chance to get back on the podium at a much faster rate than we thought they would a year and a half ago.
