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TSR's 2024 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Team Rankings (Men): #23 Michigan State Spartans
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Aug 10, 2024
- 8 min read
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On certain occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
At first glance, Michigan State isn't a team that you would have initially picked to be ranked as a top-25 cross country squad this fall.
They don't have any individuals who are viewed as All-American contenders, they didn't fare too well on larger stages last fall and they didn't even qualify for last year's national meet.
And yet, when you look at the structure of this group going into the fall of 2024, you realize that the potential of the Spartan men is far greater than one may initially expect. The depth on this roster is extensive, the experience is plentiful and TFRRS suggests that every single runner from last year's top-seven is set to return for the upcoming fall campaign.
Make no mistake, this Michigan State squad still has a lot of work to do if they are going to be factors at the highest levels of competition come October and November. Even so, there are far more positives than negatives surrounding this team and there is an abundant amount of upside which made us feeling comfortable enough to give the Spartans a spot in our top-25.
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The first true test of Michigan State's 2023 cross country season came at Notre Dame where the Spartans toed the line for the Joe Piane Invitational. That meet would feature multiple national qualifying teams as well as a handful of programs that just missed out on a spot to Charlottesville, Virginia.
Admittedly, Michigan State's firepower was lacking in South Bend. With not a single individual cracking the top-25 spots of the overall results, the Spartans could only do so much to be competitive with the top teams in the field.
But in place of potent firepower was outstanding depth and great pack-running. The quintet of Alexander Penski, Josh Smith, Owen Huard, Andrew Nolan and Aden Smith finished 26-27-34-44-46, respectively. And with no glaring weak point that inflated their team scoring, the MSU men were able to salvage a respectable 5th place team finish, just three points behind NC State.
The Nuttycombe Invite, however, would be a far more different and far more challenging test for the depth-heavy Spartans.
In Madison, Wisconsin, Michigan State's lineup admittedly looked a bit different than what we had initially seen from them at the Joe Piane Invitational. This time, Andrew Nolan (32nd) gave his team a surprisingly strong low-stick result. That, however, was much needed as no one else in the Spartans' top-seven cracked the top-120.
Penski (123rd), Huard (141st), Smith (143rd) and Jack Pennewell (150th) didn't finish quite as high up as we had hoped that they would, but none of those men ran poorly, either. For the most part, that quartet of support pieces actually kept their team scoring in check and they didn't allow their team score to inflate to the point of no return.
Admittedly, a 25th place finish at the Nuttycombe Invite still wasn't strong enough for this group to be nationally ranked. And yet, it was hard to fault them for how they ran as a collective group.
Structurally, this was a respectable team...they just needed to show it in the final results.
The Spartans would later venture to the BIG 10 XC Championships where, once again, their lineup structure looked a bit different than it had from earlier in the season.
Nolan (6th) was excellent once again with a result that provided low-stick value. Penski (13th) and Huard (14th) were subtly great as well, offering very solid middle-lineup value. Josh Smith (25th) and Aden Smith (28th) wrapped up their team scoring with a pair of backend efforts that, truthfully, could have been better.
Even so, Michigan State at least held their own. They defeated a very underrated Purdue squad and they were 23 points out from Michigan. A 3rd place team finish wasn't necessarily surprising, but there were still some net positives which came from the meet.
MSU ended their season with a 5th place finish at the Great Lakes Regional XC Championships. They didn't have anyone in the top-10, but finishes of 11-21-23-29-43 were respectable enough results which signaled encouraging promise for the following year.
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This is usually the part of the article where we break down all of Michigan State's recent roster changes. More specifically, this is the part where we highlight which athletes they are losing and how those departed names will impact their program.
That conversation, however, isn't necessary for the Spartans.
Why is that? Well, that's because, according strictly to TFRRS, everyone from last year's cross country lineup(s) are expected to return. That simple fact should give Michigan State a massive advantage given that very few nationally competitive cross country teams can also say that they return their entire top-seven.
Yes, it's true, last year's varsity group wasn't necessarily chock-full of top-tier scoring potency. And yet, one has to believe that the general growth and progression of a returning top-seven will lead to the Spartans being collectively better as a group in 2024 than they were in 2023.
Andrew Nolan emerged as surprisingly great lead scorer last year. He thrived at Nuttycombe and then carried over that momentum to the BIG 10 XC Championships. Having him return as a stable lead talent gives this team at least some scoring certainty that they didn't necessarily have going into last fall.
Of course, Nolan can only do so much when it comes to Michigan State's team scoring. Instead, it's the rest of his teammates who will ultimately decide just how far this team can go in the next few months of racing.
Alexander Penski and Owen Huard showed a lot of great promise last fall. A pair of top-15 finishes at the BIG 10 XC Championships was an encouraging step in the right direction for a Michigan State team that was trying to close the gap between Nolan and everyone else.
Since then, both of those runners have continued to progress on the track. That's especially true for Huard who ran 3:43 (1500) and 4:00 (mile) on the indoor and outdoor ovals.
Admittedly, very few men on Michigan State's roster had performances on the track which signaled that a breakout of any substantiality was on the way. Although, at the same time, it's also fair to say that the Spartans are a longer distance group who are at their best on the grass rather than on the track.
Josh Smith, Aden Smith, Andrew Lane, Parker Lambers, Tyler Pritchett and Jack Pennewell have each shown (very brief and very subtle) moments of promise in recent years. Lane made great progress on the track this past year, Lambers was only a freshman last fall and Prichett had a sneaky-good year on the track, running 8:52 in the steeplechase.
The Spartans don't need everyone who I just mentioned to make substantial improvements -- just one or two men making a jump would likely be enough to at least justify this ranking. Even so, simply returning everyone and banking on natural progression isn't going to be the only reason why this team is noticeably better than they were last year.
That's where Riley Hough comes in.
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Once a high school superstar from the Class of 2022, Hough was the 2021 Eastbay XC National Championship winner as a prep talent before joining Michigan State. And during his first season of collegiate competition, Hough caught our attention with strong finishes of 5th at Joe Piane, 81st at Nuttycombe and 14th at the BIG 10 XC Championships.
However, Hough was redshirted last fall, leaving his team without a much-needed low-stick scorer who very clearly would have made a massive scoring difference throughout the 2023 season.
Hough showed this past spring that he is still at/near the top of his game after posting a great 5k time of 13:49 at the Raleigh Relays. The only issue, however, is that Hough did not race after April 5th, leaving his current fitness status a bit unclear.
If the Michigan State men can simply get the 2022 version of Riley Hough for later this fall, then the Spartans will undoubtedly validate this preseason ranking. And if Hough, along with all of his teammates, make the progress that we think they can, then a top-20 ranking feels plenty realistic as well.
But what if I told you that Hough may not be the only new addition to Michigan State's projected 2024 lineup?
That's because Coach Aaron Simoneau landed two star-caliber distance recruits in Seth Norder and Thomas Westphal. Those two young men are tremendously talented and could absolutely enter the NCAA as the third or fourth scorers on this team come October or November.
That, of course, is assuming that they don't redshirt.
Norder is the name most likely to make an instant impact this fall. Not only did the incoming Spartan run times of 1:52 (800), 4:01 (mile), 8:46 (3200) and 14:45 (5k XC), but he also won national titles in the mile at Nike Outdoor Nationals and the Brooks PR Invitational this past spring. Norder also ran under 15 minutes four straight times last fall and was the 16th place finisher at the 2022 Champs Sports XC National Championships.
Westphal, meanwhile, is a similarly dynamic talent. The incoming Spartan rookie has run times of 1:51 (800) 4:06 (1600), 8:55 (3200), 14:57 (5k XC). He also won the 2023 Foot Locker Midwest regional title before placing 31st at the Foot Locker XC National Championships.
Is it possible that neither of these young men end up as scorers for Michigan State this fall? Yes, that's plenty likely. In fact, it's very possible that both Norder and Westphal are redshirted this fall and we don't even see them toe the line.
Even so, there's a world where Michigan State's 2024 cross country lineup features up to three men (Hough, Norder and Westphal) who weren't even in the team's top-seven last fall. And if just one of those men deliver on their unreal upside in the coming months, then you can see how this Michigan State team would become quietly very dangerous.
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We'll admit, on paper, the Michigan State men aren't the flashiest team who you will find in our preseason rankings. They didn't qualify for last year's national meet and they have very little proven firepower.
And yet, it's impossible to think that this group won't be noticeably better than they were last year.
Nolan proved last fall that, at his best, he can be a fringe low-stick. Everyone else on this team is also set to return and when they do, nearly all of them will be highly experienced veterans. In fact, you probably won't find a more seasoned cross country team in our rankings than Michigan State.
When you add in guys like Hough, Norder and Westphal, the potential that at least one of those men will offer newfound scoring potency feels more likely to happen than not.
Growth is the name of the game for this team as we enter the fall of 2024. And if just a few things break in their favor, then the Michigan State men are going to be a high-floor group void of any major structural flaws...we think.
