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TSR's 2024 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Team Rankings (Men): #24 Texas Longhorns
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Aug 9, 2024
- 7 min read
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On certain occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
Click here to read up our TSR #25 team, Gonzaga Bulldogs
The fall of 2023 can only be described as a grand success for the Texas men.
In just the second year of Coach Greg Metcalf leading the Longhorns, the men from the Lone Star state were able to conjure a handful of veteran low-stick stars and good enough depth to exceed their preseason TSR #13 ranking.
But the year is now 2024 and Texas has since lost nearly half of their firepower-heavy core. The Longhorns will still have a fairly solid group to rally around, but the next few months could lead to the most challenging cross country season that Coach Greg Metcalf has had in his three years with this team.
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The first legitimate meet of Texas' 2023 cross country season was the Cowboy Jamboree. That field, however, was largely just a battle between Oklahoma State and the Longhorns while teams from lower divisions were also featured in the race.
The Cowboys, as expected, took home the win with only a handful of their top men racing. And yet, we still got to see a few encouraging results from the Texas men. Devin Hart's excellent 3rd place finish behind two international standouts was very promising and the same could be said for Rodger Rivera, Isaac Alonzo and Haftu Knight going 5-6-7 in the overall results. Nathanael Berhane (12th) and Emmanuel Sgouros (13th) closed out the scoring.
That was a fine early-season showing for the Texas men and there were seemingly more positives than negatives from that presumed rust-buster. However, we wouldn't truly learn much about this group until they reached the always-stacked Nuttycombe Invite.
In Madison, Wisconsin, the Texas men unleashed their low-stick stars in their best form. Hart was brilliant with his tremendous 17th place effort while Isaac Alonzo (46th) and Rodger Rivera (50th) would have been lead scorers on a large number of other teams in the field.
With sophomore Emmanuel Sgouros (67th) coming through in a massive way and fellow sophomore Nathanael Berhane (107th) closing out the scoring, the Longhorns were able to cap their showing at Nuttycombe with an incredible 5th place finish!
All-American ace Haftu Knight had a tough showing, but that was what made Texas' performance that much more impressive. Suddenly, we found ourselves asking, can Texas be a podium team in 2024?
Admittedly, the BIG 12 XC Championships quelled those podium suspicions just a bit as Oklahoma State and BYU, two heavy podium favorites, defeated Texas somewhat convincingly. Even so, Hart was outstanding once more, Rivera continued to get better, Knight rebounded from his last effort and all five of Texas' scorers cracked the top-21.
After cruising through the South Central region, the Texas men would cap their season at the national meet with an outstanding performance that was arguably their best of the fall months.
Hart (11th) had the best race of his career while Rivera (23rd) stunned with the single-greatest race of his life (by a large margin). Knight (79th) added valuable middle-lineup scoring stability while Alonzo (93rd) and Sgouros (104th) were't far behind.
In the end, Texas capped an absolutely incredible season with a 7th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships. That result was perfectly representative of the Longhorns' fall campaign which featured tons of firepower, numerous men making significant improvements and top-five that was more complete than we expected it to be.
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Last fall, the Texas men could largely do no wrong. However, in 2024, the Longhorns will be tasked with remaining as a nationally competitive group...with fewer weapons.
Let's get the bad news out of the way: Superstar low-stick Devin Hart is gone, defecting to Oregon to finish out his collegiate eligibility. Long-time veteran and 2022 All-American Haftu Knight, a key stabilizing scorer for this team last year, is also not expected to return. That, ladies and gentlemen, means that Texas just lost two of their top-three runners from a VERY top-heavy team.
If you were to remove those two men from last year's national meet results (and also consider displacement), then the Longhorns would have scored roughly 519 points and taken 22nd place overall. Yes, these team rankings are meant to be gauges of the summative value that each team boasts rather than national meet predictions. Even so, that stat likely gives you a better understanding of why we placed Texas at this spot.
Thankfully, Rodger Rivera is set to return. And after seeing how high his ceiling goes at last year's national meet, we're excited to see him on the grass yet again. Except, there's only one problem -- Rivera hasn't competed at all since last fall.
The extended hiatus of Rivera is admittedly not encouraging...at all. He is almost certainly going to be the man who gives Texas an identity on the grass, but having not raced in nearly nine months leaves us a little cautious on what he'll do this fall. Rivera was also a great lead scorer for his team throughout the 2023 cross country season, but we still need to see if he can replicate his national meet performance on a more consistent basis.
Isaac Alonzo, however, is a fairly interesting name who holds great potential.
Going into last fall, we had Alonzo listed as a top-50 name at the backend of our individual preseason rankings. Why is that? Well, that's because during the 2022 cross country season, Alonzo finished 7th at the Panorama Farms XC Invitational, a huge 3rd place at the BIG 12 XC Championships and produced a still-solid 95th place finish at the national meet. Funny enough, that was just two spots shy of where Alonzo would finish at the 2023 national meet.
With (admittedly brief) flashes of being a low-stick and highly valuable consistency on the grass, Alonzo is a strong talent who shouldn't be overlooked. Traditionally a cross country-centric runner rather than a track specialist, we really liked the fact that this Texas veteran took his 3000-meter PR down to 7:53 this past winter.
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Despite the value that we think both Rivera and Alzono can/will provide, the real drivers for Texas' success this season will fall on the shoulders of Emmanuel Sgouros, Nathanael Berhane, EJ Rush and maybe one other key name.
Emmanuel Sgouros was a true megastar at the high school level, boasting jaw-dropping personal bests over the longer distances. It took him a little bit of time to find his footing in the NCAA, but this once-elite recruit showed throughout last fall that he can provide excellent scoring value on larger stages.
Finishing 67th at the Nuttycombe Invite was a much better result than some people realized at the time and you could argue that his 104th place effort at the national meet wasn't too far off, either.
Admittedly, Sgouros seemed to have a somewhat limited presence on the track this past year. Of course, it's cross country that matters the most for this aerobic-centric talent. That's especially true during a year where Texas needs newfound firepower. And while we don't quite know if Sgouros will be an All-American-caliber name in 2024, we do feel confident saying that he could at least fill Haftu Knight's role from last fall.
It's a very similar conversation for Nathanael Berhane. He was great at the Nuttycombe Invite, settling for a 107th place finish to close out Texas' top-five scoring fairly quickly. The only problem? He struggled slightly at the BIG 12 XC Championships (25th) and then didn't race at the national stage. Since then, we haven't seen him compete at all.
If Texas is going to be a top-20 team this fall, then Berhane likely needs to be available and at a reasonable level of fitness. He's had nine months to get back into his prior peak form, but the uncertainly of his current status makes ranking Texas that much more challenging.
Thankfully, EJ Rush is a sneaky-good transfer pickup who could end up filling a fairly substantial hole in the Longhorns' top-five this fall. Sure, he wasn't particularly amazing on the grass (at all), but it's also clear that Rush had a breakout year on the track this past spring where he ran times of 3:42 (1500) and 13:53 (5k).
Rush doesn't need to be a superstar low-stick of even an unwavering middle-lineup stalwart. Instead, all he needs to be is a reliable backend name who can at least close out Texas' top-five reasonably quickly. If that happens, then the Longhorns' floor should raise a good bit.
Of course, all we can do right now is speculate.
Earlier, I mentioned that there was, "one other key name," who could potentially impact Texas' lineup this fall. I am, of course, talking about true freshman Adam Burlison.
This in-state product was an absolute superstar at the high school level. Burlison has run jaw-dropping times of 4:03 (mile), 8:54 (3200) and 14:28 (5k). He was also the runner-up finisher at the 2023 NXR South meet last fall. He is almost certainly better on the grass than his 53rd place finish at NXN would lead you to believe.
Burlison is a major x-factor. Will he race this fall? Or will he be redshirted? Will he have instant success? Or will it take time for him to become stronger, aerobically? What's his upside? How consistent can the true freshman be?
We don't know the answer to any of those questions, but we do know that the raw talent of this rookie could end up salvaging Texas' 2024 fall campaign in a major way.
* * *
We'll admit, there are certain aspects of this Texas team that give us a feeling of cautiousness that we don't get with other programs. We haven't seen Rivera or Berhane since last fall. We have zero clue what Rush or Burlison could do on the grass. It's also not entirely clear if Sgouros and/or Alonzo can make the jump into a low-stick role.
Those are all fairly significant uncertainties going into this fall.
But what about the more optimistic possible outcomes?
What happens if Rivera and Berhane return this fall and are just as good as they were last year? What happens if Rivera ends up replicating his national meet performance on a more consistent basis? What happens if EJ Rush seamlessly carries his momentum from the track to the grass? What happens if Burlison is one of the few rookie stars who comfortably acclimates to collegiate competition? What happens if Sgouros and/or Alonzo do make a jump into a low-stick role?
To put it simply, the Texas men feel like a fairly volatile group as we approach September, October and November. Their ceiling is higher than one may think, but there are also a lot of holes in their lineup that we (as outsiders) don't have concrete answers for.
There is certainly no shortage of talent in Austin, Texas. And if enough things break in the Longhorns' favor, then you can expect plenty of "Horns Up" celebrations across the finish line this fall.
