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TSR's 2024 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Team Rankings (Women): #20 Michigan State Spartans
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Aug 13, 2024
- 10 min read
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On certain occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
Few NCAA cross country teams were deeper than the Michigan State women were last fall. With tons of experienced veterans, a well-balanced lineup, numerous scoring options and plenty of consistency, the Spartans were one of our favorite teams to cover throughout the 2023 cross country season.
In 2024, we still believe that there is a lot of great scoring value scattered throughout this lineup. And yet, expecting this team to reach last year's heights, while possible, is going to be quite the challenge.
Even so, Coach Lisa Breznau has proven to be a very effective developer of talent, making the most of what supposedly little scoring options that she's had in prior seasons. And with a few still-strong options remaining, we felt that the Spartans had enough to be listed as a top-20 team in our preseason rankings.
* * *
The first true test of Michigan State's 2023 cross country season came at the Virginia Invitational, a large, nationally competitive meet which would test both the firepower and the depth of the Spartans.
Or at least, it was supposed to test them.
Veteran Katie Osika (12th) was as good as we had hoped she would be, producing a fantastic low-stick result. She was then complemented by a great lead scoring effort from Makenna Veen (37th) as well as key scoring contributor, Kaitlyn Hynes (46th).
On paper, the upfront scoring value of this team was excellent relative to expectations. However, what truly impressed us was the unreal depth that this group flexed in Charlottesville. That's because the Spartans would go on to take spots 71-79-80-83-84-87-91-97. That was an unreal level of depth and backend stability that even the most elite cross country teams in the country would usually be unable to replicate.
In the end, Michigan State secured an admirable 7th place finish, taking down a large handful of nationally competitive teams. And from there, the women of East Lansing had built up great momentum, something that they further showcased at the Nuttycombe Invite.
In the neighboring state of Wisconsin, the MSU women ventured to the Nuttycombe Invite where they would be tasked with taking on an even larger and more competitive field. And just like their prior effort, they would mostly thrive.
Osika (27th) and Veen (32nd) were strong yet again, providing fairly solid low-stick scoring that was at least similar to what we saw from them at the Virginia Invitational. However, the real hero of the day for Michigan State was Lauren Freeland (48th) who put together a surprisingly great race despite being viewed as more of a middle distance runner on the track. Her rise was crucial for a team that didn't field the aforementioned Kaitlyn Hynes.
From there, Emily Bardwell (117th) and Grace Molloy (121st) did enough to get by, closing out the team's scoring in the process. That, in turn, led to Michigan State settling for a very strong 9th place team finish, a result that was arguably just as good, if not better, than what we saw MSU produce at the Virginia Invitational.
With all of the momentum in the world, Michigan State ventured to the BIG 10 XC Championships where they would be tasked with taking down Wisconsin (again) for the conference title. That, of course, proved to be a non-issue.
Veen (3rd) and Osika (4th) were fantastic as always, Freeland (10th) was once again an extremely important (and stable) third scorer and the combination of Molloy (14th), Bardwell (15th) and Eleanor Kendell (17th) provided outstanding depth to easily closing out the team scoring. That would lead the Michigan State women to a very comfortable BIG 10 title victory with just 46 points, easily trouncing the Badgers by 35 points.
After cruising through the Great Lakes regional meet, the Spartans ventured to the NCAA XC Championships where they would cap their fall campaign. Unfortunately, the national meet would arguably be the team's toughest outing yet.
On that stage, Osika (30th) was outstanding yet again, capping her Michigan State cross country career with a well-deserved All-American result. Veen (70th) wasn't exactly perfect, but she still offered great scoring value as the team's complementary lead talent. Freeland (108th) had better races earlier in the season, but given how much she had grown throughout last fall, it was hard to be disappointed with that still-strong result.
Molly (149th) and Bardwell (166th) were fine, but the quick close-out scoring and the high-end depth that we had once seen from this team earlier in the year wasn't quite as present in the team's season finale. As a result, the Spartans settled for a respectable, but slightly underwhelming, 16th place finish on the national stage.
* * *
Despite a national meet performance that left us wanting more, it was hard to have anything other than respect for how the Michigan State women handled themselves last fall. They had great low-stick scoring, a very stable middle-lineup group, great progression from a handful of key names and, on most occasions, boasted tons of depth.
On paper, you couldn't craft a lineup more stable and dependable than what we saw from the Michigan State women last fall.
So...why are they "only" listed at TSR #20 going into this fall?
Well, unfortunately for the Spartans, they lose A TON of scoring from their 2023 team. And no, they didn't just lose a few backend scorers. In fact, they lose nearly all of the women who made up the bulk of Michigan State's low-stick scoring potency.
Katie Osika, the team's most impactful lead scorer who consistently and reliably provided tons of top-tier value, is out of eligibility. Not only that, but Lauren Freeland is also gone. She was instrumental in keep the scoring stability of this team intact after Kaitlyn Hynes was sidelined for the latter-half of the fall months.
And Grace Molloy? The often highly-stable and crucial fourth scorer who this team quietly leaned throughout on last fall? Yep, she's gone, too.
In other words, this group just lost three of their top-four runners from last fall. And no matter which way you slice it, those scoring departures are absolutely brutal. Expecting Michigan State to make up for all of (or most of) that value in 2024 truthfully feels unlikely.
Of course, it's not like this team won't have an impactful scoring core at all.
Makenna Veen is a long-time veteran who we really like quite a bit. She was a "Just Missed" name in our preseason top-50 individual rankings after a 2023 fall campaign that was void of any truly poor races. Veen was 37th at the Virginia Invitational, 32nd at the Nuttycombe Invite, 4th at the BIG 10 XC Championships and 70th at the NCAA XC Championships.
Admittedly, Veen was seemingly riding the fine line between being a "low-stick" and a "lead scorer" throughout last fall. But regardless of how you specifically want to classify her, it's undeniable that she is going to be a pivotal member of this team in 2024. In fact, she may end up being the focal scorer of this team in the same way that Osika was last year.
Of course, with Veen potentially stepping up and Freeland now gone, trying to find the next woman who can fill Veen's prior position isn't exactly easy. Thankfully, Kaitlyn Hynes is set to return. And if she's anything like what we saw from her in 2022, then the initial dropping score off won't be quite as dramatic as some may expect it to be (although it certainly won't be inconsequential).
After running a new 10k PR of 33:48 this past spring, placing 46th at the Virginia Invitational last fall and taking 15th place at the 2022 BIG 10 XC Championships, there is no denying that Hynes is going to be a solid, valuable and stable scorer at the middle portion of this lineup.
Even so, Hynes still has a good bit of work to do before Michigan State can confidently say that she'll fill the entire scoring value of Veen from last fall. Her recent absence from racing last fall also makes it challenging to say with any conviction just how good this Spartan runner can be in the coming months.
We then come to Katelyn Stewart-Barnett, a long-time veteran of this program who has been outstanding on the track in recent seasons.
This past winter, Stewart-Barnett ran a promising mile time of 4:37. She would later venture to the outdoor oval where she produced an exciting steeplechase PR of 9:48 (unattached). In theory, that latter result suggests that the Canadian distance talent could be a fringe lead scorer for this team come October and November. Running under 9:50 in the steeplechase usually signals that someone can be high-impact scorer (in some capacity) on the grass.
However, Stewart-Barnett has very clearly been better on the oval than in any other season. The Michigan State veteran has placed 217th (2023) and 164th (2022) in her last two appearances at the NCAA XC Championships. And for the most part, her performances leading up to the "Big Dance" have largely matched those efforts.
There is a world where Katelyn Stewart-Barnett looks like a brand new long distance weapon capable of being a top-100 finisher at this year's national meet. In fact, she could have the ceiling of a top-80 runner. Sure, we haven't seen that from her (yet), but that's certainly still a possibility.
And if both Stewart-Barnett and Hynes are able to deliver on their full potential (which is easier said than done), then this team shouldn't look all that different compared to last year.
* * *
Trying to find the reliable firepower and top-half scoring potency isn't going to be easy for Michigan State. Depth, however, may be the least of the Spartans' issues as we venture into the fall of 2024.
While Grace Molloy, an underrated scorer, is now gone, the Michigan State women still have a plethora of options to choose from to round out their lineup. Emily Bardwell, for instance, was Molloy's equal for much of last fall, often matching the performances of her now-departed teammate.
Placing 80th at the Virginia Invitational, 107th at the Nuttycombe Invite and 15th at the BIG 10 XC Championships are not results that are going to completely blow you away. They are, however, really solid performances that offer some level of scoring stability and raise the floor of this team by a good margin.
Bardwell doesn't need to be a low-stick or a lead scorer in order to have an impact on this squad in the coming months. As long as she can be a reliable backend piece who steadies this team's top-five, then she'll be a critical piece who this team can lean on.
In fact, if you go back to the Virginia Invitational, then you can find a plethora of women who will (once again) give the Spartans some of the best overall depth in the NCAA this fall.
Meghan Beute, for instance, placed a quietly great 71st place at the Virginia Invitational. Eleanor Kendell was also sneaky-good at that same meet (placing 79th) before going on to place 17th at the BIG 10 XC Championships. Sarah Forsyth, who placed 87th at the Virginia Invitational, has also had a few brief moments of promise.
If we had to guess, we would say that Beute and Kendell are probably going to be the other two women who round out this lineup. That top-five could also feature now-former D3 standout Allison Sibold (via St. Lawrence) or former Arkansas runner Taylor Ewert. However, Beute and Kendell are the most proven. That latter name in particular was quietly one of the more steady names that this team had in 2023.
When it comes to lineup options and roster depth, Michigan State has no shortage of that. However, trying to find one more high-upside talent who does more than just raise a team's floor would be massively beneficial for a squad that needs just that.
Enter Rachel Forsyth.
Rachel Forsyth, whose sister is the aforementioned Sarah Forsyth, was one of the most naturally talented long distance prep stars in the entire country this past year. Not only did the Michigan native secure top-five finishes at both NXN (5th) and Foot Locker (3rd), but she also has tons of raw talent and elite range.
With personal best marks of 2:07 (800), 4:38 (1600), 10:02 (3200) and 16:07 (5k XC), Forsyth has enough aerobic strength to be a key scorer for the Spartans as soon as this fall. She is an aggressive front-runner who is unafraid to forcibly attack the front of loaded fields. And when you pair that (admittedly risky) race approach with tons of youth-based upside, you get someone who could be a huge scoring catalyst for Michigan State in 2024.
It's plenty possible that Forsyth needs a few seasons to get adjusted to NCAA competition and/or is redshirted this fall. But if she's not and is able to fully translate her high school success to the collegiate realm, then the ladies in green and white could end up being just as good as they were last year...and maybe even better.
* * *
Michigan State is probably not going to be a team that sparks many major headlines this fall. It's unlikely that they'll have the best firepower for any race that they toe the line for (although it's not impossible) and a successful season would probably be considered matching the success that this team had throughout their 2023 cross country campaign.
And yet, from a scoring and lineup structure perspective, there is so much to like than dislike about this Michigan State group.
They have a handful of highly experienced veterans. Makenna Veen has the potential to be a true low-stick this fall. There is a realistic scenario where the Spartans have a concrete and effective top-three. The depth of this roster is more extensive than you'll find with most other programs. There is a high-upside veteran set to return and a high-upside recruit set to join the team. And when you think about what this team could look like a few months from now, it's not hard to envision Michigan State being ranked at a spot better than TSR #20.
Sure, MSU isn't a perfect team and they still have a handful of lineup aspects that they need to address moving forward. Even so, most teams would be decimated by losing three of their top-four runners from the year prior. And it's that institutional stability that has made the women of East Lansing such a consistent and lasting competitive force in the NCAA for the last few years.