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TSR's 2023 Preseason D3 XC Top 10 Rankings (Men): #4 North Central Cardinals
- Conor Daly
- Sep 11, 2023
- 7 min read
Written by Conor Daly, edits and additional commentary by Gavin Struve and Garrett Zatlin
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On rare occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
North Central simply knows how to get the job done. While that may feel like a reductive statement, it’s proven true in recent years as their teams always seem to be in the fight for a national title or, in plenty of other instances, a podium result.
After all, the Cardinal men have won six national titles since 2010.
Unfortunately, 2020 began a comparatively rough stretch for the program. Not only did COVID-19 take a toll on the Cardinals, but they also lost their accomplished leader. Coach Al Carius, who served 54 years with the team, stepped away from his head coaching role and, eventually, retired completely.
North Central just didn’t look the same immediately after that departure, struggling on the grass in the fall of 2020 and 2021 (compared to their own program history). In 2021, they placed 15th at the cross country national meet, a relatively disappointing run for a team that was used to winning trophies.
But if the past academic year told us anything, it’s that the North Central men are well on their way to returning to top form.
Not only was that the case during the fall of 2022, but in the ensuing winter and spring months as well. The Cardinals have built substantial momentum over the entirety of 2022-23 which excites us to see what they are capable of this year.
* * *
For the early portions of last fall, it was hard to gauge what version of North Central we would see during the 2022 cross country season. The Cardinals did not race their top men against quality Division Three competition until the D3 National Preview.
At that meet, the men of North Central performed well, but they were not exceptional. As a team, they finished a distant 2nd place to an MIT squad that looked flat-out incredible.
Max Svienty, Braden Nicholson and Connor Riss finished 14th, 15th and 18th, respectively. They were followed by their fourth (Julian Higueros) and fifth (Andrew Guimond) scorers who settled for finishes of 25th and 26th.
That tight pack definitely indicated that North Central was off to a good start, but it was difficult to see this team breaking through later in the season without any true low-sticks to rally around.
Simply put, this team needed more firepower.
But in just a short two weeks’ time, that all changed at the Augustana Interregional Invitational. The trio of Svienty, Nicholson and Riss, who were good but not great in their prior race, took a step up in performances. All three of those men had the races of their lives up to that point.
In a very competitive effort, Riss secured a fantastic runner-up finish behind only Christopher Collet. Meanwhile, Svienty and Nicholson were close behind, both finishing in the top-eight to give the Cardinals a pleasantly surprising injection of scoring potency.
North Central’s fourth and fifth runners didn’t have the races that they needed in order for NCC to best Pomona-Pitzer. Nonetheless, Andrew Guimond was still a solid scoring piece with a 25th place finish while Julian Higueros got by with a respectable 33rd place finish.
It may not have been a perfect race, but the North Central men still had to be plenty proud of with their improved firepower and a runner-up result.
After sweeping the top-nine spots at the CCIW XC Championships, the Cardinals ran well at the Midwest Regional XC Championships. Guimond continued to improve, finding himself sticking with the top trio of Nicholson, Svienty and Riss.
Despite their fifth runner falling all the way back to 22nd place, North Central was able to put four men in the top-seven, an effort that was good enough to take the win over Wartburg and comfortably advance to the NCAA XC Championships.
Come time for the national meet, Guimond not only found himself sticking with what was seen as North Central’s top-three, but surpassing his teammates to be North Central’s first man across the line in 29th place! It was a massive performance that forced us to change how we viewed the Cardinals (for the better).
Riss and Nicholson held their own with the former battling to a 38th place finish while Nicholson was just off of All-American honors with a 46th place finish. Those finishes kept North Central competitive in the team race, but those two men definitely had better days throughout the season.
Unfortunately, Svienty, who usually accompanies Riss and Nicholson, was nowhere to be found. The junior was further back than anyone was expecting, crossing the line as North Central’s sixth runner in 158th place.
North Central couldn’t truly recover from that unexpected scoring loss as Nigel Neibel (106th) and James McGlashon (15th) closed out the team's top-five.
Even so, the Cardinals finished just off of the podium in 7th place, a significant improvement from their 15th place finish the year prior. Yet, we can’t imagine that this team was too excited by this result. It was a step forward, but not quite as magical as they were probably hoping for.
From our perspective, they likely wanted a podium spot.
* * *
In looking at the upcoming season, what makes this team so dangerous is that they are projected to have three true low-sticks. That's a level of firepower that very few teams in Division Three can boast.
Max Svienty, Connor Riss and Braden Nicholson all return for North Central this fall. If their cross country marks that we underlined didn’t already convince you that they’re the real deal, then just consider that all three of those men ran under 14:10 for 5000 meters.
It also doesn’t hurt that the Cardinal aces gained quality national level experience this past spring. That same trio walked away from the 5k at the 2023 outdoor national meet with three All-Americans as Nicholson, Svienty and Riss placed 3rd, 5th and 8th, respectively.
And if that’s STILL not convincing enough, then get this: You could argue that the 5k isn’t even the best event for any of these men.
Riss and Nicholson each have a 3:46 (1500) marks to their name, making them a serious threat at the end of races. Svienty, on the other hand, is more of a true distance talent. His 29:14 (10k) was good for the fourth-best performance in all of Division Three this past spring.
Most teams in Division Three would do anything to have just one athlete of that caliber, but North Central is loaded with three. All three of these men could very likely end up in the top-20 at the national meet, if not the top-15.
Fittingly, Svienty and Nicholson landed at TSR #16 and #17, respectively, in our preseason top-25 individual rankings. Riss was a "Just Missed" name.
We would also be remiss if we didn’t at least mention Andrew Guimond in this conversation.
At the beginning of the 2022 cross country season, he did not project to be a key scorer. But by November, he had developed into the Cardinals' top scorer at the national meet! He and Riss are in the “Just Missed” section of our preseason top-20 individual rankings, although they are certainly capable of sneaking into our top-20.
Guimond’s ability to peak for the postseason last fall was more than impressive, making him just as much of a threat as his teammates if he is able to do so again this fall. But since his regular season and track resume are less stellar than his teammates’, it takes some projection to put him as the Cardinals’ top runner throughout 2023.
That, however, is a good problem for North Central to have.
Still, we see Guimond as one of the best (if not the best) projected fourth runners in the country. It’s not everyday that we are talking about a middle-lineup piece who placed 29th at the cross country national meet and has run 14:19 for 5000 meters.
* * *
When North Central’s entire lineup was at their best last fall, they were a force to be reckoned with. The thing is, this wasn’t the case all the time.
Svienty, in particular, had some noticeable dips in his performance throughout the 2022 season. As someone who was North Central’s first man in some races, Svienty also found himself as the team’s seventh runner at the CCIW XC Championships and the team's sixth runner at the national meet.
Admittedly, that's not ideal as North Central doesn’t necessarily feature the depth that would be able to cover up a bad day for Svienty. Put another way, we can't help but wonder if the Cardinals’ sum of their parts is better than their whole.
The leading candidate for the team's fifth runner position this fall seems to be Nigel Neibel. Similar to Guimond, he peaked well late last fall. Some of his better results from the second-half of the season include placing 44th at the Augustana Interregional Invitational, 5th at the CCIW XC Championships and 106th at the national meet.
All things equal, that’s a pretty solid resume for a fifth scorer, particularly if he improves. However, what does concern us is that Neibel hasn’t stepped onto the track at all this past year. That leaves us uncertain about what we should expect to see from him over the coming months. If he’s available, then we could see a very good and complete North Central squad. But if he isn't, then Coach Matt Sinnott has some lineup decisions to make.
Luke Hoffman is poised to make the Cardinals' lineup this season. Although he didn’t run as a part of their top-seven last fall, he has conference-level experience on the track thanks to his 15:04 (5k) and 9:19 (steeple) personal bests.
Rising sophomore Kyle Nofziger is another good option to round out the lineup. He has shown great strength in his aerobic capabilities on the track with 15:05 (5k) and 30:51 (10k) marks.
Hoffman and Nofziger are definitely names North Central will rely on in the future, but both would require significant improvements to emerge as scorers this season.
* * *
North Central, in theory, will have far greater firepower than any of their competitors. That’s saying something given the range of the rankings that the Cardinals occupy. But it takes a full team to succeed in cross country. The key to their success will be the backend scorers and the consistency that they offer.
If those contributors are not able to keep their heads above water, then there’s only so much that North Central’s stars can do. That's ultimately why we have them at a more cautionary ranking of TSR #4. But if the Cardinals’ youngsters are able to fill in the gaps and their stars remain steady, then the sky's the limit for this team.
In fact, if their four figureheads all run up to expectations and a fifth scorer closes the gap, we could even see North Central return to their past success and challenge for a national title.
