TSR's 2023 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Women): #11 Virginia Cavaliers

NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On rare occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.

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Click here to see our "Just Missed" & "Honorable Mention" teams

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We'll fully admit, we were not high on the Virginia women going into last fall...at all.

Entering the 2022 cross country season, the Cavaliers seemed limited. They were very underwhelming in the fall of 2021, they didn't make any major additions to their roster as far as cross country scoring was concerned and their projected lineup was expected to be extremely young -- and it was!

Of course, the quiet (but clearly effective) introduction of women's distance coach Joelle Amaral seemingly made all of those points moot.

While we never fully grasped just how good this team was until the national meet, their season, in retrospect, was far better than some of us may have realized at the time. And although they do lose a massively important scorer from last fall, this team is still deep enough to be major players on the grass once more in 2023.

* * *

It's hard to say exactly which meet was UVA's first nationally competitive challenge of last fall. The Cavaliers faced respectable competition at the Virginia Invitational and the Battle in Beantown, but those meets didn't seem to hold much emphasis.

Instead, it was the Panorama Farms XC Invitational, a meet held at Virginia's home course, that acted as the first point where the Cavaliers would face legitimate competition...sorta.

Despite respectable distance programs such as Ole Miss and Kentucky entering the field, the Virginia women had no problem handling their opponents.

The combination of Margot Appleton, Camryn Menninger and Mia Barnett went 3-4-5, respectively, in the overall results. They were later supported by Sophie Atkinson, Anna Workman and Esther Seeland, a backend trio that produced finishes of 9-11-12, respectively.

In the end, Virginia easily trounced their opponents. The ladies from Charlottesville, Virginia posted just 32 points while their SEC counterparts, Ole Miss, were well back in 2nd place with 110 points.

Of course, things wouldn't remain that easy throughout the rest of the season. Although the Virginia women were going to be back on their home course for their next meet, their competition would be far more fierce.

At the ACC XC Championships, the Cavs were faced with the likes of NC State, Notre Dame, North Carolina, Syracuse, Florida State and Duke. To put it simply, this was not going to be a walk in the park.

And yet, UVA may have gotten the best result that they could have realistically secured.

A 9th place finish by Margot Appleton was far better than some may have realized at the time given that eight out of the top-10 spots were secured by NC State or Notre Dame runners. And with Camryn Menninger securing a highly clutch 12th place finish or her own, the Cavaliers were in a great position.

We also saw Barnett place 15th and Atkinson finish 22nd overall. Through four runners, this team was looking outstanding, even if they weren't going to catch the Wolfpack or the Fighting Irish.

Yes, a 39th place finish from their final scorer (Seeland) wasn't ideal. But in the grand scheme of things, that didn't matter. Virginia still secured 3rd place overall in the team standings, 10 points clear of the UNC women.

It should be noted that the Tar Heels didn't have top low-stick Brynn Brown for this race and her inclusion would have given North Carolina bronze. Even so, the ACC XC Championships was a massive performance for UVA, one that validated the overall talent of the Cavaliers and made them legitimate threats throughout the rest of the postseason.

After somewhat comfortably navigating through the Southeast Regional XC Championships and earning a bid to the national meet, the Cavaliers shifted their focus to the NCAA XC Championships. It was easily the largest field that they had seen all season long and it was a venue that would test just how good this team really was.

Spoiler: They were the real deal.

While the UVA women didn't produce any All-Americans, they did get close. Mia Barnett (44th) and Sophie Atkinson (46th) had what were easily the best cross country races of their lives to give their squad a pair of fringe low-stick results.

Meanwhile, Appleton was a pleasant surprise in 55th place while Anna Workman finished in 65th. And with Esther Seeland closing out the team scoring in 114th place, the Virginia women earned a jaw-dropping 9th place finish.

For perspective, no TSR contributor predicted any Virginia woman to finish in the top-50 at the national meet. The best team placement that any of our writers predicted for the Cavaliers was 14th place.

* * *

Last year was an eye-opening fall campaign for the Virginia women. They were consistently great, fared incredibly well at a variety of different meets and peaked beautifully. And we won't lie, we have no idea how that happened. In terms of personnel, this team wasn't all that different from what they looked like in the fall of 2021.

But the year is now 2023 and the preseason expectations are vastly different. The depth on this team remains stronger than ever. In fact, it might even be better. The top-end firepower, at least through one or two runners, may also see an improvement. It even feels like there is some upside remaining in a handful of these runners!

Of course, it's also impossible to ignore the fact that Mia Barnett is gone. She was a true star for this team on the track and flashed moments of brilliance last fall. In fact, she was listed at TSR #50 in our 2023 preseason individual cross country rankings back in July.

Removing Barnett from last year's results (and therefore relying on their sixth runner to be a scorer) means that the Virginia women would have placed 4th at the ACC XC Championships and 12th on the national stage. That's not a devastating drop, but it makes this ranking a bit more easy to understand.

And yet, despite that (very important) departure, it still feels like we could be robbing the Virginia women of a better ranking. Truthfully, trying to rank the Cavaliers and the next three squads proved to be extremely challenging -- any of them could have been ranked at TSR #8 and any of them could have been ranked at TSR #11, legitimately.

The bigger reason why this team isn't ranked higher is simply because we like the adjustments that other teams made more than them. But as the upcoming season unfolds, it's plenty possible that the overall growth of UVA's roster could outweigh the roster tweaks made by their opponents.

* * *

Margot Appleton is the obvious name who we need to begin with. She wasn't the team's top scorer at the national meet, but she was still quietly excellent throughout last fall.

Finishing 3rd at the Panorama Farms XC Invitational, 9th at the ACC XC Championships and 55th at the NCAA XC Championships aren't results that, on their own, catch your attention in any crazy way. But as a collective whole, that is a very strong resume which could be far more impressive later this fall.

That, of course, is because Appleton was beyond fantastic this past winter and spring. Not only did she run new personal bests of 4:08 (1500), 4:34 (mile), 9:00 (3k flat-track converted) and 15:36 (5k), but she was also an All-American in those former two events!

Appleton has reached a completely new level of fitness and, as recognition for her newfound talent, was ranked at TSR #26 earlier this summer.

As long as she delivers on most of the expectations that come with that ranking (not even all of them), then the Virginia women should have better low-stick firepower than they had throughout last year.

We likely know who the second, third and fourth scoring spots in this lineup will go to. However, it's the order of those women that we're not quite sure of yet.

Between Camryn Menninger, Anna Workman and Sophie Atkinson, it was Menninger who was the better runner at the Panorama Farms XC Invitational (5th) and ACC XC Championships (12th). However, Atkinson was the team's top scorer at both the South Regional XC Championships (13th) and the NCAA XC Championships (46th).

Workman, meanwhile was a bit up-and-down, but her 65th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships stood out in a major way.

If we had to guess, we would say that Atkinson will take the second scoring spot in this lineup. She was not only terrific in the postseason last fall, but she also ran a 10k PR of 33:53 to qualify for the outdoor national meet. Her consistency could be better, but the same could be said for a handful of other women on this team.

Menninger was better in the regular season than she was the postseason, but she still held her own. Workman, meanwhile, really only had one great race last fall (on the biggest stage), but just ran 4:14 for 1500 meters this past spring -- and that's a super encouraging sign.

On paper, the quartet of Appleton, Atkinson, Menninger and Workman should act as the core scoring group of this lineup. Each of these women need to prove themselves in a variety of different ways, but when they're all at their best, they're very difficult to take down.

The rest of this lineup, however, is where things become a bit more fluid.

* * *

If Esther Seeland returns to the same fifth scoring spot that she held last year (which wouldn't be surprising), then she'll at least bring experience and some level of stability. Her performances at the conference and regional level could have been slightly better, but her results at the Panorama XC Invitational and the NCAA XC Championships were very solid, especially the latter.

We could see Seeland replicate the same exact finishes as she did last year and this team would probably be plenty happy with that. Even in her races where she could have been better, this middle distance ace kept Virginia's team score in check.

She's a quietly great asset to have going into the fall of 2023.

However, the biggest x-factor on this team may be incoming rookie, Tatum David.

This now-former high school megastar was truly elite during her time at the prep level. Not only did she run times of 2:05 (800), 4:35 (mile) and 16:41 (5k XC), but she also thrived in championship races on the grass.

Last fall, David placed 8th at the NXN Championships. That result came two years after placing 8th at the 2020 Garmin RunningLane XC National Championships and three years after placing 10th at the 2019 Foot Locker XC National Championships.

This true freshman could be incredible this fall. She could be a key scorer on this team and help negate the loss of Mia Barnett, effectively putting this squad among the top-10 in the NCAA. She could also be redshirted and remain non-existent in UVA's lineup this fall.

We could also see everything in between.

But given that this year's national meet is going to be on Virginia's home course, I have a hard time believing that the Cavaliers want to be conservative with how their lineup is constructed going into this fall.

As for the rest of their lineup, look for incoming graduate transfers Margaret Hock (via Princeton), Lizzy Bader (via Penn) and Caroline Timm (via Kennesaw State) to add extremely valuable depth to this team.

Each of those women have had brief moments of promise, but have yet to truly show (consistently) that they can be top-five scorers for a team of this caliber.

Hock ran 4:23 for 1500 meters this past spring, Bader placed 23rd at the 2022 Mid-Atlantic Regional XC Championships and Timm ran 4:36 in the mile this past winter.

Be sure to also watch out for rookies Gillian Bushee and Cate DeSousa who showed plenty of long distance promise during their time at the high school level.

* * *

It's somewhat rare for a team to be able to lose someone as good as Mia Barnett, not have a proven replacement for her scoring value (depending on what you think about Tatum David) and not be massively penalized in our team rankings as a result.

That, ladies and gentlemen, is outstanding roster and lineup construction.

This is going to be a very big year for the Virginia women. They bring back a heavy portion of a successful squad, saw big improvements from a handful of runners over the past year and added a star rookie (plus a ton of depth) that could strength this team even further.

And if a Virginia Tech alum is speaking this highly about any UVA team in the Cavaliers' athletic department, then they certainly deserve your respect as well...and then some.