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TSR's 2023 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Women): #12 Providence Friars
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Aug 22, 2023
- 8 min read
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On rare occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
10 years ago, the Providence women won the 2013 NCAA XC Championships. It was a statement performance that validated their runner-up result from the year prior. And throughout the early-to-mid 2010s, the Friars continued to produce respectable national-caliber efforts.
But over the last five years, the Providence women have seen limited success on the grass, at least when it comes to the highest tiers of the NCAA. Neither the depth nor the firepower has been nearly as present as it was in the past.
That, however, could be (slowly) changing.
After a highly promising fall campaign in 2022, the Providence women were excellent on the track, boasting one of the best contingents of milers in the NCAA. And now, with nearly everyone returning, a key transfer being added and a top veteran primed for a rebound, this BIG East distance squad could end up being ranked higher than TSR #12 by November.
* * *
The first legitimate test of the Friars' 2022 cross country season came at the Paul Short Invite, one of the larger east coast meets in the NCAA. There, Providence would face some steep competition from the likes of North Carolina, Georgetown, Utah State and Utah Valley.
And their final result?
Well, it was "just ok."
Jane Buckley, a new Irish distance talent, made a statement in her NCAA debut with a very strong 7th place finish. She gave her team a much-needed low-stick runner in an overwhelmingly large field. However, a fairly significant gap after her gave the Tar Heels and Hoyas a significant lead.
Lily Tuck (37th) held her own while Laura Mooney (38th) had what we thought was just a simple "off" day at the time. It was a somewhat similar story for Shannon Flockhart (43rd) who produced encouraging results in the fall of 2021 as just a rookie.
With Niamh O'Mahony (51st) closing out the scoring, the Friars' settled for a 3rd place finish. Taking down Utah State and Utah Valley was good to see, but in order to truly take that next step, Providence would need to be much closer to North Carolina and Georgetown in future races.
We can then fast forward to the Nuttycombe Invite where things began to look a bit more encouraging for this team. Sure, the Friars weren't perfect, but they were clearly improved from their Paul Short race.
Buckley, despite her in experience, gave her team a fringe low-stick result by placing 38th. And with Flockhart coming across the line in 79th place, the Friars had a solid lead duo to carry their team.
With May, O'Mahony and Tuck going 109-133-155 in the overall results, the Providence women were able to close out their scoring fast enough to snag a 15th place overall finish. Yes, the team's firepower could have been a bit more potent and their backend could have had fewer gaps. But given that there was no true flaw in their lineup structure, the northeast distance program had to be happy with their final result.
At the BIG East XC Championships, the Georgetown women would still prove to be too much of a challenge for Providence. However, the Friars were at least more competitive with the Hoyas than they were earlier in the year at Paul Short.
Buckley's conference title win gave her a team a great scoring boost while Flockhart (4th) and Tuck (6th) kept Providence within one point of Georgetown through three runners. However, from there, the Hoyas' depth was simply better.
With the last four Providence runners settling for finishes of 13-16-17-18, there simply wasn't enough backend support to keep pace for the conference title. Even so, that performance had to give Coach Ray Treacy and his squad plenty of confidence going into the rest of the postseason.
After breezing through the Northeast Regional XC Championships, the Friars returned to the NCAA XC Championships where they had placed 26th the year prior.
But in 2022, that result would be noticeably different -- and better.
Jane Buckley wouldn't reach All-American honors, but she would get close, placing 49th overall while acting as the valuable lead scorer for Providence that she had been all season long. Flockhart, meanwhile, continued to be highly reliable with a 69th place finish, arguably the best cross country result of her career.
From there, gaps began to form, but just like we saw at Nuttycombe, they weren't totally devastating results. Kimberley May got the job done in 138th place while Lily Tuck and Niamh O'Mahony placed 156th and 157th, respectively.
In the end, Providence would secure a 16th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships. It was a result that was perfectly on par with the expectations that they had set earlier in the season.
* * *
This is usually the part of the article where we talk about how last year's team looks in comparison to this year's team. It's mainly the spot where we highlight the main departures of the program in question and discuss how those scoring challenges will be addressed.
That, however, is largely not relevant when it comes to the Providence women this fall. Despite losing Orla O'Connor, who wasn't even a scorer for this team in 2022, everyone else from the Friars' varsity lineup is set to return.
But wait, there's more!
Coach Ray Treacy has also added two high-impact names to this year's roster in Annabelle Eastman (a graduate transfer from George Mason) and Reese Fahys (an accomplished high school distance recruit from Rhode Island).
If just one of those women is able to step into Providence's top-five later this fall, then the Friars will undeniably be better than they were in 2022. That doesn't even factor in the general improvement and growth that we would expect from this roster!
And with Laura Mooney clearly holding the potential to be so much better in 2023 than she was last year (as evidenced by her 2021 campaign), it's hard to see a scenario where the Providence women aren't a top-15 team throughout this season.
In fact, we would say that they probably have one of the highest floors in the NCAA for the upcoming cross country season -- and that's a good thing.
* * *
The success of this team in 2023 is largely going to hinge on Jane Buckley and Shannon Flockhart, two lead scorers for Providence throughout last fall.
The former is listed at TSR #44 in our preseason individual rankings after a tremendous rookie year in 2022. Despite her youth, this Irish distance star was highly reliable on a variety of different stages and clearly got better over time.
Placing 7th at Paul Short, 38th at Nuttycombe, winning the BIG East individual title and settling for 49th place on the national stage are all great results for someone who could be even better over the coming months. And at meets like Nuttycombe and the NCAA XC Championships, a jump in her fitness could still have a legitimate impact on Providence's team score.
Oh, and don't forget that Buckley has also run times of 9:09 (3k) and 15:41 (5k), both of which came on the track this past year.
As for Flockhart, she's not the same cross country low-stick that Buckley is, but she's not that far off, either. Sure, some of her performances on the grass are better than others, but 79th at Nuttycombe and 69th at the NCAA XC Championships are really encouraging results for someone who has continued to make improvements season after season.
Let's also not forget about how good Flockhart was on the track. We saw how dangerous she could be in the spring of 2022, but she seemingly got even better in 2023 over the middle distances.
With a 4:10 (1500) PR and an All-American honor in that event, Flockhart is clearly in greater fitness than she was last fall. Sure, trying to translate speed to the grass is never guaranteed to happen, but this is also a runner who has proven to be an effective distance talent across all three seasons.
However, the real name to watch moving forward is likely going to be the aforementioned graduate transfer, Annabelle Eastman.
The former George Mason runner is a true veteran and extremely reliable. During the winter of 2021, Eastman placed 83rd at the NCAA Winter XC Championships. The ensuing fall, she won the A10 individual title on the grass and placed 92nd at the NCAA Fall XC Championships.
Eastman's 2022 fall campaign may not have been quite as sharp as her prior two cross country seasons, but at her best, she makes this team, a) far more stable, and b) noticeably better.
For a Providence squad that had runners finishing near/around 150th place on stages like the Nuttycombe Invite and the national meet, this veteran can make a nice dent in the varsity gaps that this team had last fall.
We should also make a note that Eastman ran 9:45 in the steeplechase during the spring of 2021. And if that kind of fitness can be replicated, then Providence may have a third woman on the verge of a being a fringe low-stick.
* * *
The rest of this team is fairly straightforward. Most of them don't necessarily have the proven scoring potency that Buckley, Flockhart and Eastman do, but they're a fairly solid group and plenty reliable.
Kimberley May had a sneaky-good fall campaign last year. While she wasn't super consistent, it was interesting to see her fare better at larger meets than smaller meets. Placing 109th at the Nuttycombe Invite and 138th at the NCAA XC Championships, while not necessarily jaw-dropping, were fairly solid efforts.
For someone who is expected to be the fourth scorer in this lineup, May is a great name to have. She also had a huge year on the track, running times of 2:42 (1k), 4:37 (mile) and 4:13 (1500). And while we may not put a ton of stock into middle distance times for cross country, we can still recognize when someone takes a step up in their fitness.
Other women such as Lilly Tuck and Niamh O'Mahony were plenty valuable last year as well. They never blew you away, but they kept the team score within check.
Tuck is someone who finished 6th at the BIG East XC Championships, a sneaky-good result. And after running times of 9:11 (3k), 15:56 (5k) and 33:39 (10k) this past year, that conference meet performance doesn't look like a fluke at all.
If she can replicate that performance on a consistent basis throughout the season, then this team may have a shot at sneaking into the top-10 of our rankings.
And then we come to Laura Mooney, someone who we were super high on last fall.
Unfortunately, Mooney didn't have the 2022 cross country season that we were hoping that she would have. After running times of 16:09 (5k) and 33:23 (10k) during the spring of 2022, we expected this rising Providence talent to potentially fight for All-American honors.
That, however, never happened. Despite placing 60th at the 2021 NCAA Fall XC Championships, Mooney struggled throughout last fall and then never competed again after the 2022 Northeast Regional XC Championships.
If she's firing on all cylinders, then the Providence women could realistically have four of the top-90 finishers at this year's national meet. And if that happens, then this ranking is then way too conservative for the ladies in grey and black.
Of course, we still need to see what kind of form she is in this fall. Her recent absence from racing isn't encouraging and we just don't know what to expect from her. But at the same time, that's what makes this team so dangerous going into these fall months.
Other names such as Alex O'Neill, Halle Atkinson, Kaleigh Higgins and Reese Fahys are other women who could potentially find themselves inside the Friars' top-seven this fall. The latter two are rookies and Fahys is someone who ran 17:12 for 5000 meters on the grass.
At the very least, that backend group offers nice depth.
* * *
It's hard to dislike this year's Providence team. Boasting a high-upside low-stick in Buckely is nice to have, especially when she's being complemented by two stable veterans in Flockhart and Eastman, each of whom have some upside as well.
And with the backend of this lineup having the potential to be even better (beyond the assumption of just natural growth), it's hard to see how this group doesn't improve upon their efforts from last year.
The Providence women may not be the same cross country juggernaut in 2023 that they were back in 2013. But on paper, this group has a shot to truly revitalize this program back to the days where the Friars were among the very best in the NCAA.
They'll need to make improvements and maintain their consistency, but this group has a chance to be one of the better squads that Coach Ray Treacy has developed throughout his long and accomplished tenure with the Friars.
