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TSR's 2022 Preseason D1 XC Top 50 Rankings: #40-31 (Men)
- Gavin Struve
- Jul 20, 2022
- 12 min read
40. Marcelo Rocha, Senior, Providence
At a glance, Marcelo Rocha's appearance in these rankings may be a minor surprise for those unfamiliar with his resume. However, the Providence ace is on our short list of breakout candidates for this fall.
Rocha has been a consistently competitive talent for a few seasons now, but has the potential to ascend to stardom if he continues his trend of year-over-year improvement. In fact, last year was already a break out of sorts which saw him emerge as one of the better regular season runners on the grass.
That, of course, is not to say he had a meltdown at the NCAA XC Championships last fall. At that meet, Rocha finished a respectable 61st place, proving that he could be fairly competitive on the NCAA's biggest stage.
However, before then, Rocha finished 7th at the Battle at Beantown, 4th at the BIG East XC Championships and then 9th at the Northeast Regional XC Championships, all of which are very solid, high-scoring results.
But the one result (and his most impressive result) which came in the middle of the season was a huge 10th place finish at the loaded Nuttycombe Invitational. In that race, Rocha took down numerous distance stars and truly emerged as an All-American candidate himself.
Perhaps a strong season like that should have been expected after Rocha’s first true breakout season — the spring of 2021 — where he qualified for the NCAA Outdoor Championships in the 10,000 meters.
Now, admittedly, Rocha raced on the oval just once this academic year, but that lone instance produced a 13:42 PR for 5000 meters in December of 2021. For just one race at the very beginning of track season, that is an extremely encouraging result.
With Providence slated to be in the mix for a team berth to the NCAA XC Championships this fall, Rocha will have that much more motivation for a big performance at the national meet to validate his status as an undervalued ascending talent.
39. Matthew Carmody, Senior, Notre Dame
This will be a pivotal season for Matthew Carmody who suddenly finds himself as the elder statesman of what has been an elite Fighting Irish distance contingent.
As Notre Dame’s longest-tenured scorer, Carmody will be relied upon to lead the Irish as they shift to a new era after an exodus of star talent by way of transfer, graduation and a coaching change.
This roster, which recently introduced assistant distance coach Chris Neal, is resplendent with young talent after amassing the nation’s top distance running recruiting class. However, they return only a few contributors.
Foremost amongst those contributors is Carmody who has long been a solid complementary lineup piece, but will likely have to shift to a low-stick role if the Fighting Irish want to hold their status as a top-10 team.
Fortunately, Carmody showed flashes of brilliance, giving us reason to believe that he could be the new face of Notre Dame distance running after his series of races over the last academic year.
Carmody won’t be expected to match the prowess of Yared Nuguse or Dylan Jacobs, but an All-American finish on the grass and multiple national meet qualifications on the track should be an expectation, not a possibility, for this stolid fifth-year senior.
And frankly, he wasn't too far off from that status last fall.
Carmody arguably had his best cross country race in his first outing of the 2021 season, placing an outstanding 4th at the Joe Piane Invitational before finishing a very respectable 11th place at the ACC XC Championships. He would later finish 4th at the Great Lakes Regional XC Championships and 49th at the NCAA XC Championships.
But those results, while encouraging, certainly didn't support this kind of ranking.
Instead, Carmody would further establish himself with a very fruitful year on the track. He would run 13:27 for 5000 meters, win the ACC indoor title at that same distance, post a huge 28:34 mark for 10,000 meters and qualify for the NCAA Outdoor Championship at that distance.
On paper, Carmody can be an elite talent. Sure, his cross country results could be better, but this is someone who didn't truly break out until the winter and spring months. We have every reason to believe that he can be an upper-echelon scorer and a legitimate All-American threat later this fall.
38. Brandon Garnica, Senior, BYU
If BYU manages to get back to (or near) the podium this season, Brandon Garnica will be a major reason why. In fact, he’s arguably the Cougars’ greatest x-factor depending on how you feel about a few other names.
While it would be unfair to categorize him as erratic, Garnica’s NCAA career thus far belies the consistency that our site admin (Garrett) often lauds on this site. However, Garnica has a few top-tier results, and if he runs to his full potential, then he could blow this ranking out of the water.
Garnica has yet to earn cross country All-American honors, a factoid that may surprise a few people. That, of course, is not to say that he hasn’t been a valuable scorer for BYU in recent years.
The long distance veteran finished as the third scorer at the NCAA XC Championships last fall, placing 54th, and also held that same scoring spot in the BYU's lineup at earlier meets with a similar, slightly more encouraging, 19th-place finish at Pre-Nationals. Garnica also secured a very solid 4th place finish at the West Coast XC Championships where only one non-BYU runner beat him.
However, it was Garnica’s 2019-20 academic year that was arguably his best. He beat multiple top talents at the Silver State XC Challenge and finished 5th at the WCC XC Championships.
The BYU star was in 13th place at the NCAA Winter XC Championships through 8000 meters, but failed to finish the race due to heat stroke. And admittedly, it's hard not to think about "what could have been".
On the track, Garnica flashed moments of brilliance with a highly impressive 13:26 mark for 5000 meters before inconsistency again got the best of him as he failed to qualify for the outdoor national meet that season.
The BYU ace went on to run a lethal 10,000 meter PR of 28:19 this past spring. He would advanced out of the regional rounds and would finish 11th at the NCAA Outdoor Championships in said event.
Garnica’s raw firepower on the track and near-top finish at the NCAA Winter XC Championships show us that he has a higher ceiling at the upcoming national meet this fall, perhaps even in the top-half of the All-American honors if all goes well.
Still, consistency will be key. He needs to have his best races on the biggest stages and peak when it matters the most. That, of course, doesn't take away from Garnica probably being one of the naturally talented distance runners in the first two sections of our rankings so far.
37. George Kusche, Senior, Northern Arizona
It seems like George Kusche has been a staple in this range of our rankings for the last half-decade.
Earlier in his NCAA career, Kusche probably held more upside than this ranking would suggest with strong annual placements at major meets like Pre-Nationals and the BIG 10 XC Championships.
Those results, however, gave way to flameouts at ensuing national meets.
That was until Kusche left Nebraska for Northern Arizona, a monster powerhouse program that’s already become one of the greatest NCAA distance running dynasties ever.
Last fall, Kusche earned what was, surprisingly, his first All-American honor between track and cross country when he finished 37th place at the NCAA XC Championships. However, his 2021 fall season leading up to that point, while solid, was arguably less impressive than his previous three regular season campaigns.
He finished 13th at the Cowboy Jamboree, 20th at Pre-National and 8th at the BIG Sky XC Championships. Again, none of those results were poor, but they left us wanting just a little bit more.
The pandemic has afforded Kusche an extra season of cross country eligibility to reprise his role as a key scorer for the Lumberjacks and perhaps use his unique blend of middle distance speed and well-documented long distance prowess to rise up the All-American ranks on the grass.
And with a recent 13:28 (5k) personal best on the indoor oval, Kusche is clearly someone who can be a high-octane scorer for the Lumberjacks later this fall. After all, he was the 2021 BIG 10 winter cross country champion before he ventured to Flagstaff.
Still, we don't always know what version of Kusche we're always getting and for that reason, he sits at TSR #37 in our preseason list.
36. Michael Power, Senior, Tulsa
Michael Power’s cross country credentials suggest that he belongs amongst this top group, but make no mistake, he’s ranked here mainly because of his outdoor track season, not necessarily because of his results on the grass.
One of the biggest breakout stars of the recent outdoor track season, Power ran an eye-catching 13:29 personal best for 5000 meters to place 5th at the absolutely loaded Stanford Invitational back in April. That mark certainly put him on our radar in a way that his solid, but modest cross country season, didn’t.
However, it was his performance at the NCAA Outdoor Championships in June that made Power known to more casual distance running fans.
The Tulsa standout displayed brilliant situational awareness and racing savvy en route to a 6th place finish. He ran a time just a couple of seconds (13:31) off of his PR and took down some superstar names who will be ahead of him in these rankings.
If Power’s fitness trajectory from the spring and the recent history of Tulsa's men’s cross country team is any indication, then Power will be peaking at the national meet. Last fall, he finished a relatively uninspiring 30th place at the OSU Cowboy Jamboree and then 50th at Nuttycombe before placing 54th at the NCAA XC Championships.
That last result, as unexciting as it may be to some, is what makes us comfortable placing him here. While Power appears to lack the potential to be an elite cross country contender, he may very well end up making this ranking look conservative.
It all depends on how his 5k success translates to the grass.
35. Cormac Dalton, Senior, Tulsa
Another Ireland native competing for the Golden Hurricane, Cormac Dalton will be aiming to form one third of Tulsa’s next superstar trio as fellow UK transplants Patrick Dever, Peter Lynch and Isaac Akers once did during the 2021 NCAA Winter XC Championships.
The difference between Dalton and teammate Michael Power is that Dalton has already garnered a cross country All-American honor with his 34th place finish at last fall’s NCAA XC Championships. If you assume that the Tulsa men will always peak in the postseason, then that placement fell right in line with his regular season results of 15th place at the Cowboy Jamboree and 26th place at the Nuttycombe Invite.
Those were very solid results, but it's clear that Dalton was better suited for the postseason.
Dalton also dropped some competitive times on the oval this past winter and spring, running 7:59 for 3000 meters, 13:43 for 5000 meters and 28:50 for the 10,000.
Power was admittedly better on the track, but Dalton was better and more consistent on the grass -- and that’s the discipline we’re ranking right now. As a result, it seemed like an injustice to rank Power above Dalton even if the former has garnered considerably more hype with his 5000 meter All-American finish.
Sure, some men ranked above and below Dalton have flashier personal bests on the track, but Dalton boasts the confidence of having produced an upper-echelon finish at the cross country national meet before.
And when looking at his recent and promising consistency, it seems more likely than not that Dalton will replicate his All-American finish from last fall come November.
34. Isaac Akers, Senior, Tulsa
If you're looking at only the fall of 2021, then Akers has a very limited resume.
The Tulsa veteran ran just twice on the grass last fall, with his latter result being a respectable (but unexciting) 86th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships. However, we can't forget that Akers posted a massive 19th place finish at the NCAA Winter XC Championships just seven months prior.
In other words, that elite talent didn't just disappear.
Akers has flashed the requisite firepower to be a low-stick for a podium contender. Our confidence in Akers regaining his winter of 2021 form stems from a successful 2022 track campaign in which he ran impressive personal bets in the mile (3:59) and the 5k (13:32).
Akers should be helped by his experience. He’s the longest-tenured scorer of Tulsa’s main scoring group and was the only one who has competed alongside former veteran stars like Dever and Lynch.
Not only does Akers have a chance of giving the Tulsa men three All-Americans on the grass, but he could give them an electric, star-level low-stick if he repeats his performance from 16 months ago.
We haven't quite seen that level of fitness from him consistently, but we know it's there, and for that reason, we hedged his ranking to put him at TSR #34.
33. Cole Bullock, Junior, Ole Miss
At first glance, Cole Bullock is a name not all too different from the aforementioned Isaac Akers. He had a breakout performance at the NCAA Winter XC Championships followed by a lackluster return to the national stage at the NCAA XC Championships last fall.
And when you look at their track resumes, they aren't all that different.
The Ole Miss star has been a top-end distance talent since starting out in the NCAA with a 9th place finish at the 2019 SEC XC championships. The next fall, he broke out with a runner-up finish at the same meet before backing up that result by earning a monumental 18th place finish at the NCAA Winter XC Championships a few months later.
Bullock’s career hasn’t been quite as fortuitous since then. His cross country campaign last fall started out solid enough, placing 7th at the SEC Championships and then 13th at the South Regional XC Championships, but it ended with him finishing 142nd at the NCAA XC Championships.
Despite the rough ending, Bullock would rebound by having his best track season yet, running 13:39 for 5000 meters and qualifying for the NCAA Outdoor Championships at that distance.
Now, Bullock will look to show that his herculean effort at winter cross country national meet was no fluke. Similar to Carmody, Bullock will likely be doing so as the top-runner of a revamped Ole Miss program that lost its coach and its star Mario Garcia Romo to graduation.
32. Graham Blanks, Sophomore, Harvard
At the surface level, this ranking may appear low for someone who placed 23rd at last year’s NCAA XC Championships as a second-year freshman. And while we are in no way attempting to devalue Blanks’ overall resume, there was careful reasoning in placing him nine spots below that placement.
The NCAA XC Championships certainly hold the most value in these rankings, but they are far from the end-all be-all. And no, these rankings are not necessarily an attempt to predict the national meet finish. So, when looking at the collective resume of Blanks, we thought this would be an appropriate spot for him.
If you were to show people a blind resume of Graham's performance, they likely would not have told you that he was one of the 25 best cross country runners at the Division One level last year. In fact, you would probably find fewer who thought he was amongst that group prior to the national meet.
Blanks boasted a strong resume entering the NCAA XC Championships, but it held nothing to indicate that a 23rd place finish at the national meet would happen.
He placed 21st at the Battle in Beantown, 28th place at Nuttycombe and 5th at the Ivy League XC Championships behind two teammates. And since that national meet, Blanks has raced just thrice, all at 5000 meters, running no faster than 13:51 -- a solid yet unspectacular mark more resembling that of a complementary scorer on a top-25 team rather than a true-stick.
In fact, the third-year sophomore has raced just nine times at the Division One level across all three seasons, something that isn't necessarily his fault due to pandemic-related conference restrictions.
Blanks’ performance at last fall’s national meet was the race of his life, but it doesn't mean that it can't happen again. While his regular season results didn't necessarily indicate that he would place 23rd at the national meet, he still had a handful of really strong races.
We just need to see a bit more season-long consistency from Blanks to validate the exciting upside that he has flashed before. His youth-driven upside also leaves us excited about what we could see from him this fall, but we're pumping the brakes on a higher ranking until we see a more complete resume from him.
31. Victor Shitsama, Senior, Oklahoma State
Shitsama isn’t all that different from the aforementioned Graham Blanks.
He’s at his best in the longer distances, specifically the cross country course. And while his theoretical ceiling is probably lower in comparison to Blanks, largely because of his veteran status, Shitsama has proven to hold the enviable title of being one of the most clutch runners in the NCAA.
Shitsama started off hot upon entering the NCAA, placing 3rd at the Cowboy Jamboree, 10th at the Oklahoma State Invitational, 5th at the BIG 12 XC Championships and then 34th at the winter cross country national meet, all during the 2020-21 calendar year.
Last fall, Shitsama had an even better cross country campaign as he went from 10th at the Cowboy Jamboree to 9th at the BIG 12 XC Championships to 29th at the NCAA XC Championships. Then, he qualified for the 2021 NCAA Outdoor Championships in the 10,000 meters despite not having dipped under 29:00 in the event at that point.
Shitsama’s track times are certainly on the “slower” end of these rankings, and yet he’s already carved out a strong career for himself with several national meet appearances and a pair of All-American finishes. He’s the steady veteran scoring piece that every team contender would love to have.
Many would argue that Shitsama is only the fourth (!) best cross country runner on this Oklahoma State team. However, if the Cowboys manage to stun NAU and win the team title this fall, it will almost definitely be in part because Shitsama made another small jump up the All-American ranks.
On paper, Shitsama is one of the safer bets to at find himself in that top-40 range. He consistently produces and rarely has a poor race. When it comes to racing on the grass, he feels like the most complete runner in our rankings (that we have posted so far).
