TSR's 2022 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Women): #9 North Carolina Tar Heels

Another year, another projected step upwards for the North Carolina women.

The Tar Heels were a respectable squad prior to the summer of 2019. However, the hiring of Chris Miltenberg has lifted this program into an entirely different (and better) tier, both in their results and on the recruiting trail.

After stacking elite recruiting class after elite recruiting class, the UNC women went throughout last fall with a lineup that, by eligibility, was easily one of the youngest groups in the nation.

But in 2022, this youth-centric squad isn't inexperienced anymore.

They've had time to develop within the collegiate circuit and there should no longer be any surprises. And if this team simply matures with age, then they should be able to establish themselves as a top-10 team in the country...we think.

* * *

After a successful winter cross country campaign, one that ended with a 14th place finish at the national meet in March of 2021, expectations were high for a squad that was loaded with former high school megastars.

The Tar Heels' first challenge of the season would be in Boston for the Battle in Beantown. There, they would face the likes of Providence, Duke, Connecticut, Harvard and Syracuse, all of which were very underrated east coast teams. Many of those teams either qualified or came close to qualifying for the national meet last November.

But despite the sneaky-good depth of the field, the UNC women were simply better.

True freshman and Texas native Brynn Brown shocked the country with an impressive win, taking down the likes of Amanda Vestri and Kayley DeLay, two women who have had notable national-caliber success in the NCAA.

Teammate Sasha Neglia, one of the breakout rookie stars from the pandemic-altered 2020-21 academic year, held her own in this top-heavy field. Her 6th place finish gave North Carolina a somewhat comfortable edge through two scorers.

From there, a scoring gap began to widen until Carlee Hansen, Natalie Tyner and Kelsey Harrington crossed the line in quick succession, going 17-19-21, respectively.

With a strong 1-2 punch and a somewhat stable backend, North Carolina got the win, scoring 64 points to trump a strong Providence team that posted 82 points of their own. And when you look at the other teams in this field, no program was able to match the scoring potency and the depth that the Tar Heels had shown in Boston.

Of course, the Battle in Beantown was just preparation for something far more challenging: Pre-Nationals.

In Tallahassee, the Tar Heels would put together a performance that left a lot of us at The Stride Report saying, "Yeah, that seems about right."

However, instead of Brown of Neglia leading the way, this time it was Paige Hofstad, one of the lone veterans of this lineup. The former All-American would thrive on the national-caliber stage, placing 15th overall and giving UNC an identity in an overwhelming field.

From there, the Tar Heels held their own by limiting excessive scoring and showing off fairly respectable depth. The combination of Brown, Neglia, Hansen and Tyner finished 39-41-44-45, respectively, in the overall results. Once again, the women from Chapel Hill were able to quickly close out their scoring.

And if there were any questions about UNC's sixth and seventh runners, they placed 73rd and 74th in this race, two of the better finishes seen amongst non-scorers in this race.

Hofstad admittedly carried this team in terms of firepower, and it would've been nice to see someone like Brown or Neglia crack the top-25 or top-30. Still, it was hard to be disappointed by North Carolina's performance. The Tar Heels placed 5th overall, losing to Ole Miss by 19 points and comfortably defeating 6th place Arkansas.

There was work to do, but this was a step in the right direction.

Fast forward to the ACC XC Championships, a loaded meet that would feature some of the best teams in the country.

That, however, didn't seem to phase the UNC women.

Brynn Brown once again delivered a low-stick result by finishing 6th overall, arguably her best race of the year. And with Hofstad placing 10th, North Carolina had a similar 1-2 punch that we had seen from them at the Battle in Beantown.

The backend of this lineup once again thrived with Kelsey Harrington and Sasha Neglia finishing 19th and 20th, respectively. However, the team's final scorer would falter to 34th place overall. Three other UNC women would go 35-36-37 in the overall results.

The ACC XC Championships was the first time that the UNC women has shown a significant gap within their bottom three scorers. Even so, that development would leave the results largely unchanged.

With NC State dominating the meet as a whole and no other team in the field having a supporting cast that was any better (or equivalent) to what the UNC women had, the Tar Heels finished their conference meet with a distant runner-up result.

After taking down Florida State, Syracuse and Notre Dame, the Miltenberg-led women had to be confident as they dove deeper into the postseason. And after somewhat comfortably navigating through the Southeast region, the NCAA XC Championships awaited the Tar Heels.

North Carolina returned to Tallahassee with big ambitions. Their postseason was going well and it seemed like everyone had not yet run their best on the same day.

However, in their biggest meet of the season, one could argue that the North Carolina women left some scoring on the table.

Not a single woman on UNC's team finished inside the top-60 overall spots. Two women did, however, finish inside the top-70 with Brown placing 65th and Harrington placing 67th. For perspective, those two women were better than Wisconsin's low-stick, Alissa Niggemann.

And while those were solid results, the gaps after those two women began to grow far larger.

Sasha Neglia was the team's third scorer in 113th place overall while Hansen was the team's fourth scorer in 122nd overall. Tyner closed out the scoring 134th place.

On paper, this was hardly a poor performance for UNC. They still had two women in the top-70 and four of their runners tallied under 100 points (individually) in the team scoring. While the pack-running wasn't quite as strong as expected and although the scoring potency was limited, the Tar Heels still walked away with a respectable 14th place finish.

The same result that they had earned at the NCAA Winter XC Championships.

* * *

As one can probably guess with a team that is this young, nearly everyone from last year's lineup is returning in 2022. That's something that VERY few programs in the NCAA can boast.

However, the Tar Heels do lose one key name: Paige Hofstad.

This long-time UNC veteran, who initially ran at Georgetown, thrived at Chapel Hill. She was a 29th place All-American at the winter cross country national meet and often emerged as a true low-stick for the Tar Heels last fall.

While Hofstad didn't have her best race at last year's national meet, she clearly gave UNC a veteran presence at meets like Pre-Nationals and the ACC XC Championships. And despite the mass number of returners, losing someone like Hofstad is going to be far more challenging than some people realize.

However, in our opinion, there are at least three women who could emerge as true front-runners for UNC in the fall of 2022. In fact, some of those women have already been true low-sticks for the Tar Heels, either during the winter months or last fall.

Brynn Brown is the most obvious name who needs to be highlighted. Her Pre-Nationals race likely could have been better, but she never truly had a poor performance. Taking home a win at the Battle in Beantown was extremely impressive and placing 6th in arguably the best conference in the nation last fall was also huge.

Did we think that Brown could've been an All-American last November? Definitely, but she was still great as a true freshman and presented tons of value at the front of this lineup.

The second name who we need to mention is Sasha Neglia. The Class of 2020 high school graduate was a very pleasant surprise during the pandemic. As a true freshman, she was phenomenal in the fall months and even placed 6th at the ACC XC Championships before placing 46th at the winter cross country national meet.

Neglia was undeniably great during the winter months, but she faltered a bit in the fall. Finishing 41st at Pre-Nationals and 20th at the ACC XC Championships are encouraging results for a supporting scorer, but we know that Neglia is so much more than that.

Luckily, this rising third-year sophomore showed promise on the outdoor oval this past spring, running an excellent time of 9:59 in the steeplechase and advancing to the outdoor national meet in that event.

If Neglia replicates her 2021 winter cross country performances this fall, then UNC could instantly replace the lost scoring potency of Hofstad. Just like that! No transfers or extra recruiting needed.

Still, there's no guarantee that a return to that fitness level will happen in 2022.

The final potential low-stick of this team is Kelsey Harrington, another Class of 2020 high school graduate who has slowly risen up the ranks over the last few seasons.

An underclassman by eligibility, Harrington was a solid support scorer throughout last fall. However, she then peaked at the national meet where she finished 67th overall. That, however, wasn't even the best national meet finish of her career.

Let's not forget, Harrington placing 61st at the NCAA Winter XC Championships back in March of 2021. And while none of Harrington's other performances have quite matched those results, it's extremely encouraging to know that Harrington's best performances have come during the most important meet of the season.

Back-to-back top-70 national meet finishes in the same year is great reliability to have.

Not only that, but there's even potential that Harrington could be better than top-70 at this year's national meet. After all, this is someone who ran 33:26 for 10,000 meters in the spring of 2021. She did not race this past spring.

The trio of Brown, Neglia and Harrington could be a lethal scoring combination. All three of those women have shown that they can be true front-runners and high-impact names. And this is by no means speculation. All three of those Tar Heel distance talents have actually proven it.

However, there are plenty of questions that need to be answered.

Can Brown consistently be the low-stick that she was at the ACC XC Championships last fall? Can Neglia replicate her winter cross country season success during the fall months? Can Harrington reproduce the caliber of her national meet results during the regular season?

We think the answers to those questions can all be, "Yes", but that's not a guarantee.

It's also fair to wonder how much better some of these women will be later this fall. In theory, we could see a significant improvement from Brown, Neglia and Harrington, especially since they'll now have a full year between cross country seasons.

Of course, we didn't necessarily see that jump happen last year.

Still, through three runners, the potential is there for the Tar Heels to have a trio of fringe All-Americans on the right day. We do, after all, have Brown ranked at TSR #42 while Neglia was a "Just Missed" name in our preseason individual rankings.

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So what about the rest of this lineup? Who is going to step in and cover the occasional scoring gaps that we saw in the second-half of this team's top-five?

Truthfully, we don't know exactly who that will be, but we have a ton of good guesses.

In terms of returners from last year's top-seven, women like Natalia Tyner, Carlee Hansen, Ava Dobson and Sydney Masciarelli will likely play some type of varsity role in 2022. And while none of those women ran poorly last fall, we do need to see noticeable improvements if the Tar Heels are going to be a top-10 team .

Hansen and Tyner, for the most part, were really solid backend supporting pieces. They were top-45 finishers at Pre-Nationals, top-40 finishers at the ACC XC Championships and were the team's bottom two scorers at the national meet.

For what the UNC women were trying to accomplish last year, those were great results. While there was certainly room for improvement, Hansen and Tyner ensured that the team scoring was never overinflated.

We should also note that Hansen was excellent on the track this past year, running 4:38 in the mile and then 4:14 for 1500 meters, peaking in postseason each time.

But how will those results translate to the grass for Hansen? How much better better will Tyner be in the 2022 compared to last year? If both of these women simply replicate last year's results, then that's fine. But if that happens, then UNC needs the rest of these women to also step up and improve.

Other women like Ava Dobson have shown promise on the grass as well, placing 16th at the Southeast Regional XC Championships last fall. This could be a pivotal year for Dobson in terms of her development as a runner.

And how about Masciarelli? The former high school megastar came into Chapel Hill with numerous accolades. At the prep level, she ran 9:21 for 3000 meters and 16:16 for 5000 meters on the track. She also won the 2018 Foot Locker XC National Championships and finished 7th at the same meet in 2019.

However, despite her high school success, Masciarelli had a somewhat quiet freshman year. Placing 40th at Beantown and 73rd at Pre-Nationals was far from bad, but she then recorded a DNF result at the ACC XC Championships before being sidelined for the rest of the postseason.

It's clear that Masciarelli still has so much more to offer. Most people would probably agree. But as we enter the fall of 2022, it's hard to know what her sophomore season will be like and what role she will play in this varsity lineup.

And how about Taryn Parks? The Pennsylvania native had an outstanding year on the track, running a 4:36 mile PR to win the ACC indoor title and later running 4:15 for 1500 meters in the spring.

Parks had moments of promise on the grass last fall like placing 37th at the ACC XC Championships. However, it's clear that she took a leap upwards in her fitness during the winter and spring months.

The Class of 2020 highs school graduate could be a sleeper name to watch this fall if her mile success translates to the grass. That, of course, is far from a guarantee.

We have also come this far and not mentioned Sarah Trainor, a New York native who has had limited success during cross country. However, after running 10:09 for the steeplechase this past spring, we think there could be some translatable fitness that she could bring to the upcoming fall months.

And of course, this wouldn't be a UNC article if we didn't talk about the freshman class.

Incoming rookies like Lilly Shapiro, Eva Klingbeil and Madison Huecker may not make up the deepest and strongest freshman class that the Tar Heels have recently had, but one of these youngsters could still make an impact.

Shapiro has run 2:06 (800), 4:40 (1600), 10:18 (3200) and 16:50 (5k XC). Not only that, but she finished 19th at the Eastbay XC National Championships AND 13th at the Garmin RunningLane XC National Championships.

Klingbeil has run incredible marks of 4:47 (1600), 9:25 (3k) and 10:00 (3200). The Niwot High School star also secured a huge 7th place finish at the Garmin RunningLane XC National Championships last fall.

Huecker, meanwhile, is a solid name in her own right. She has run 4:50 (1600) and 17:35 (5k XC), the latter of which came at the Garmin RunningLane XC National Championships last fall where she was a top-60 finisher.

It should also be noted that following the publication of this article, a trusted source informed TSR that D2 superstar Fatima Alanis would be transferring into the program. The Stride Report has not yet confirmed the transfer.

Alanis, who initially committed to the University of Pennsylvania, finished 3rd at the NCAA D2 XC Championships last fall and has since run strong times of 4:24 (1500), 9:21 (3k flat-track converted), 16:04 (5k) and 33:39 (10k). She finished 2nd (5k) and 3rd (10k) at the most recent D2 outdoor national meet and also finished 5th (3k), 2nd (5k) and 10th (DMR) at the most recent D2 indoor national meet.

* * *

I just went through a wildly deep roster that is loaded with elite high school stars who could be significantly better in the future. The unreal upside of this team going into the 2022 cross country season is what ultimately lifts them into the top-10 portion of our rankings.

Having multiple seasons of experience is huge and the progress that we've seen from a few of these women is extremely promising. It also doesn't hurt that UNC has tons of depth, an aspect of their roster that should be able to limit excessive scoring in the same way that they were able to do last year.

Sure, we'll admit, this team isn't perfect.

They lose a veteran low-stick, their roster is still fairly young, certain second-year talents weren't quite as good last fall as they were expected to be and their success in 2022 is going to be dependent on how much these runners individually improve.

But the good thing is that time can solve all of those issues.

Being another year older should allow this team to reset and reach new heights. Remember, most of the women on this young UNC roster only had eight months between the winter and fall NCAA XC Championships.

They didn't really have a ton of time to grow.

That, however, could be a very different story over the next few months as this team more firmly establishes their identity and creates greater scoring value across their entire top-seven.